Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I mean, flops shouldn't stop them from trying.

Uhhh… I mean, an isolated flop shouldn’t singlehandedly stop you from trying. But a pattern of flops kind of should, right? “Most of our originals flop so we just commissioned 5 more” is not exactly living up to fiduciary duties there.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Is it?  They didn't finish it in time for any film festival.  It went from a limited release on Dec. 3rd with the normal ramp up to a wide release dumped right on Dec. 17th that will be swallowed up by Spider-Man: No Way Home and then really swallowed 5 days later when 4 more new releases hit.  

 

Going to be hard to build any real buzz for it.  Of course I could be off on this, but will be surprised if it isn't lost in the shuffle.  

To be fair, there's always a couple of titles so buzzy every year that they don't need to bow at one of the big festivals to generate a lot of press (see: The Revenant, The Post, Little Women '19, among others). Nightmare Alley fits the bill as one of them since it's GDT's follow-up to his Oscar glory with a cast full of big name actors.

 

They're clearly aiming for counterprogramming going up against all these IP-driven titles. Although it might not matter if the target audience still isn't returning to theaters for anything.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Uhhh… I mean, an isolated flop shouldn’t singlehandedly stop you from trying. But a pattern of flops kind of should, right? “Most of our originals flop so we just commissioned 5 more” is not exactly living up to fiduciary duties there.

 

Who cares if they all flop, are we really gonna let movies live merely off nostalgic and established IP? Imagine if they thought this way in the 80's or 90's, we'd be getting Casablanca 2 and 3 by now. Really hate the notion that original cinema flopping means original cinema not being worth greenlighting.

[EmpireCity]

9 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Is there actually a positive value prop in marketing these things though? Spending like 3M more on Last duel advertising would have got it over 5M for the weekend but I doubt it sees 3M of marginal return. Hollywood seems to overmarket a lot to begin with.

 

I'm talking about getting a lot more lead time and awareness on a film.  They should have been putting out stills and featuretts a year ago.  

 

They only released anything about the film nearly in August and then nothing until a few weeks ago.  Older crowd needs to be made aware well ahead of time to make these things work.  

 

These things cost little to no money.  The obsession from some studios and marketing teams with holding back anything on their films until it is way too late is a real issue.  

[SpiderByte]

Halloween was less affected by day and date because of how late the call was (so people didn't know) and because Peacock has a very small premium user base.

[Last Man Standing]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Is it?  They didn't finish it in time for any film festival.  It went from a limited release on Dec. 3rd with the normal ramp up to a wide release dumped right on Dec. 17th that will be swallowed up by Spider-Man: No Way Home and then really swallowed 5 days later when 4 more new releases hit.  

 

Going to be hard to build any real buzz for it.  Of course I could be off on this, but will be surprised if it isn't lost in the shuffle.  

It is, partly because the field is fairly weak. Del Toro plus Cooper would be enough to get it buzz without festivals, and goldderby has it third in odds for BP.

[John Marston]

Horrid for NTTD. Will be the lowest attended Bond film since Licence to Kill

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Is it?  They didn't finish it in time for any film festival.  It went from a limited release on Dec. 3rd with the normal ramp up to a wide release dumped right on Dec. 17th that will be swallowed up by Spider-Man: No Way Home and then really swallowed 5 days later when 4 more new releases hit.  

 

Going to be hard to build any real buzz for it.  Of course I could be off on this, but will be surprised if it isn't lost in the shuffle.  

It is. Not being finished in time for festivals are kinda normal, House Of Gucci and Licorice Pizza also is in the same situation, and all 3 are in the predictions for lots of categories on Oscar. 1917 was finished hours before the premiere very close to release and was the runner up on Best Picture.

 

Nightmare was actually supposed to premiere in Venice according to the festival chief, but they didn't manage to finish it. Now it will premiere on Oscar Museum (Gucci and Licorice too).

 

I don't think Disney is expecting a box office hit, but they expect awards nominations.

Edited October 17, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Uhhh… I mean, an isolated flop shouldn’t singlehandedly stop you from trying. But a pattern of flops kind of should, right? “Most of our originals flop so we just commissioned 5 more” is not exactly living up to fiduciary duties there.

 

It really shouldn't unless we believe that movies are nothing more than a manufactured product meant to be consumed and make an immediate profit.  

 

I hope that studios still consider all kinds of stories worthy of being made as an art form.  

 

Sure, there have to be some that hit and make money, but if we just go with "what makes money" immediately the future of film is really going to suck.  

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Is it?  They didn't finish it in time for any film festival.  It went from a limited release on Dec. 3rd with the normal ramp up to a wide release dumped right on Dec. 17th that will be swallowed up by Spider-Man: No Way Home and then really swallowed 5 days later when 4 more new releases hit.  

 

Going to be hard to build any real buzz for it.  Of course I could be off on this, but will be surprised if it isn't lost in the shuffle.  

Venice wanted it and Gucci from what they saw. Both will be premiering at something the Academy Museum is doing, so I'd still bank on Nightmare Alley being a contender.

[TwoMisfits]

Disney is pretty much advertising the crap out of Fox movies in theatrical trailers in theaters, but probably not much elsewhere...

 

It's probably the best strategy for something like Free Guy, which capitalized on blockbuster folks being happy to watch another blockbuster...it WOULD have worked for Ron's Gone Wrong if they didn't set up its release date strategy as a total dump (but I'm seeing that AF2 should be the goal for weekend and total with its release date and upcoming competition/theater quick drops)...but for a movie that appealed to a group not going to theaters, well, it was probably wasted effort...

 

PS - Seems I was dead on with $4-7M for The Last Duel...although I can't really take credit b/c that was the easiest call of the weekend b/c so many adult films have fallen in the range, we have what's called a set pattern til we can manage to break it...this movie still didn't break it...

[VENOM]

 

[elcaballero]

32 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

thats.........

 

I'm being kinda flippant here, but I thought I heard this was more for the "sophisticated" European markets anyway. Uh... apparently it wasn't for anyone.

[TwoMisfits]

So, with NTTD losing all remaining PLFs next weekend and competing with Dune for similar demo audience, will it be looking at another 50%+ weekend drop in weekend #3?   

Edited October 17, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Who cares if they all flop

Uhh… the movie business cares.

 

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

are we really gonna let movies live merely off nostalgic and established IP?

Yes! Wake up!

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Horrid for NTTD. Will be the lowest attended Bond film since Licence to Kill

 

Lol, it isn't "horrid" for Bond.  

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I'm talking about getting a lot more lead time and awareness on a film.  They should have been putting out stills and featuretts a year ago.  

 

They only released anything about the film nearly in August and then nothing until a few weeks ago.  Older crowd needs to be made aware well ahead of time to make these things work.  

 

These things cost little to no money.  The obsession from some studios and marketing teams with holding back anything on their films until it is way too late is a real issue. 

Extremely skeptical that actions which were both cheap and temporally far away would have helped this appreciably. If so that’s basically a free lunch, so I suppose it would at least be worth testing.

[CJohn]

Venom is pretty much gonna do the same as the first one minus China worldwide. Solid result. 

 

Same for Bond, which will cross the 700M WW even with the crappy DOM number.

 

Halloween looking like shit OS which will only get worse in the next couple of weeks when it flops everywhere because everyone saw it online instead. The DOM OW is fantastic tho.

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol, it isn't "horrid" for Bond.  

domestically it sure is. No way to spin it 

[Napoleon]

The Last Duel doing around the same as the WB/HBO Max hybrid released adult dramas (Cry Macho, The Many Saints of Newark and Malignant) only with no added value to Disney's streaming subscribers.