Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[TalismanRing]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Disney is pretty much advertising the crap out of Fox movies in theatrical trailers in theaters, but probably not much elsewhere...

 

It's probably the best strategy for something like Free Guy, which capitalized on blockbuster folks being happy to watch another blockbuster...it WOULD have worked for Ron's Gone Wrong if they didn't set up its release date strategy as a total dump (but I'm seeing that AF2 should be the goal for weekend and total with its release date and upcoming competition/theater quick drops)...but for a movie that appealed to a group not going to theaters, well, it was probably wasted effort...

 

PS - Seems I was dead on with $4-7M for The Last Duel...although I can't really take credit b/c that was the easiest call of the weekend b/c so many adult films have fallen in the range, we have what's called a set pattern til we can manage to break it...this movie still didn't break it...

 

Deadline said the U.S. TV ad spend for The Last Duel was $15-16m.  About what they spent on Ad Astra.   Pretty healthy.  Even WDAS and Marvel films usually only get around low 20s.  As it stands theatrically it won't make back it's TV spend.

 

They also debuted it at Venice.    Reviews there though weren't great so it didn't get the requisite buzz and boost.  Better reviews came later  but too late.

 

It wasn't a dump.  The  theatrical audience just wasn't there.  It's sitting at 80% on RT verified audience so even the audience that showed up aren't wildly enamored. 

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

How so? 56% drop is decent for a frontloaded franchise, and Bond has always been an OS thing. Outside of Skyfall (over 300M), dom numbers were never spectacular. 

 

Bond isn't a front loaded franchise.  Even Specter had a 2.86 multi.   O/S - it's doing great.  Domestically as pointed out - not so great.  It's total might come under DAD and CR - movies that came out 19 and 15 years ago.

[Ozymandias]

28 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

Fox must be sweating about Kitbag.

 

Apple Studios is funding that one.  I think Ridley Scott is done with Fox now after the Disney merge.

[Val357]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Apple Studios is funding that one.  I think Ridley Scott is done with Fox now after the Disney merge.

Nooooooo! Apple? Yuck.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

15 minutes ago, Val357 said:

What does this even mean lol?

What are you talking about

[Val357]

Just now, Val357 said:

Nooooooo! Apple? Yuck.

Though I don't blame him for being done with Fox by any means.

[Val357]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What are you talking about

Nevermind. It's not important.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Deadline said the U.S. TV ad spend for The Last Duel was $15-16m.  About what they spent on Ad Astra.   Pretty healthy.  Even WDAS and Marvel films usually only get around low 20s.  As it stands theatrically it won't make back it's TV spend.

 

They also debuted it at Venice.    Reviews there though weren't great so it didn't get the requisite buzz and boost.  Better reviews came later  but too late.

 

It wasn't a dump.  The  theatrical audience just wasn't there.  It's sitting at 80% on RT verified audience so even the audience that showed up aren't wildly enamored. 

I was so confused by the "no advertsing" talk, there's been plenty during live sports, stuff like this:

 

 

In the last couple of weeks, they tried linking it to other "epic" bro movies:

 

 

When the reviews improved, they leaned on those:

 

 

People just weren't here for it. Most of the older audience that is returning to theaters probably went for the Bond movie. Given the scale and Covid delays, a $100m budget isn't surprising but a medieval drama about rape always had two strikes against it, even in the before times.

Edited October 17, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Deadline said the U.S. TV ad spend for The Last Duel was $15-16m.  About what they spent on Ad Astra.   Pretty healthy.  Even WDAS and Marvel films usually only get around low 20s.  As it stands theatrically it won't make back it's TV spend.

 

They also debuted it at Venice.    Reviews there though weren't great so it didn't get the requisite buzz and boost.  Better reviews came later  but too late.

 

It wasn't a dump.  The  theatrical audience just wasn't there.  It's sitting at 80% on RT verified audience so even the audience that showed up aren't wildly enamored. 

 

Never trust the ad spend numbers.  Most of the spend is on Disney owned channels and the money just shifts from one company account to another, and usually at an inflated amount.  

[Gavin Feng]

Is this real? Why 3pm?

 

 

 

[Lion Roar]

4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Is this real? Why 3pm?

 

 

 

3 PM PT is 6 PM ET, same as previously announced. 

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

I was so confused by the "no advertsing" talk, there's been plenty during live sports, stuff like this:

 

 

In the last couple of weeks, they tried linking it to other "epic" bro movies:

 

 

When the reviews improved, they leaned on those:

 

 

People just weren't here for it. Most of the older audience that is returning to theaters probably went for the Bond movie. Given the scale and Covid delays, a $100m budget isn't surprising but a medieval drama about rape always had two strikes against it, even in the before times.

That's actually some pretty trash marketing. 😂 They're basically advertising the critic reviews instead of the movie.

[Legion Again]

Based Yglesias?

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

12 hours ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Never heard of this movie before in my life, lmao.   
 

The-numbers doesn’t seem to think it will be wide (though they have 4 wide release on the 29th, one of which I’ve never heard of).   

 

@katnisscinnaplex, any insight?

I'm like... 10 pages behind in this thread so I'm not sure if any progress was made.  Here's what I can see for it.

 

Previews - 256 theaters; 414 shows

Total weekend - 270 theaters; 3058 shows

185 Cinemark

0 AMC & Regal

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Based Yglesias?

 

 

 

Who do these pop culture critics think is watching Queen's Gambit, Mare of Eastown, White Lotus, The Crown, etc.? The adult drama fans have chosen to get their fix through TV dramas/limited series, and are just trickling back into theaters (Bond, a big event). The same thing will keep happening this year with the other awards bait movies (especially the ones that skew old and white), as long as the audience for them is too reluctant/afraid to go back to movie theaters. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

Who do these pop culture critics think is watching Queen's Gambit, Mare of Eastown, White Lotus, The Crown, etc.? The adult drama fans have chosen to get their fix through TV dramas/limited series, and are just trickling back into theaters (Bond, a big event). The same thing will keep happening this year with the other awards bait movies (especially the ones that skew old and white), as long as the audience for them is too reluctant/afraid to go back to movie theaters. 

He isn’t denying that, just admits it sucks for the films and theaters 

[Plain Old Tele]

Speaking (somewhat) as an old I don’t think there’s this huge fear or resistance about going to the theaters anymore, there’s just very little that’s interesting unless you happen to like dude-skewing action movies or historical epics. Which, granted, some do! But it’s not like these are automatically broadly appealing to an older audience. 

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I'm like... 10 pages behind in this thread so I'm not sure if any progress was made.  Here's what I can see for it.

 

Previews - 256 theaters; 414 shows

Total weekend - 270 theaters; 3058 shows

185 Cinemark

0 AMC & Regal

No progress had been made.

 

@TwoMisfits looks like it is indeed a Cinemark special rather than properly wide

Edited October 18, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[Eric Furiosa]

18 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I'm like... 10 pages behind in this thread so I'm not sure if any progress was made.  Here's what I can see for it.

 

Previews - 256 theaters; 414 shows

Total weekend - 270 theaters; 3058 shows

185 Cinemark

0 AMC & Regal

 

1 minute ago, Let There Be Legion said:

No progress had been made.

 

@TwoMisfits looks like it is indeed a Cinemark special rather than properly wide

Harder They Fall is a Netflix movie. Cinemark is the only chain that plays Netflix and Amazon movies, and even then it's always pretty limited and I doubt they make much money. So next time you see this stuff for like Red Notice or whatever, pay it zero mind.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Eric Atreides said:

 

Harder They Fall is a Netflix movie. Cinemark is the only chain that plays Netflix and Amazon movies, and even then it's always pretty limited and I doubt they make much money. So next time you see this stuff for like Red Notice or whatever, pay it zero mind.

Didn't realize that only Cinemark had made the Netflix deal, thanks