Weekday Numbers (10/25-28) | Dune 3.65M Monday

[Last Man Standing]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

Dune's legs and 2nd week drops have been pretty close to NTTD's in many European markets (taking into account when both have had similar conditions, e.g. having major new competition or not) and the US box office is eerily similar so far. Even though NTTD had the indigenous day weekend, if you would apply NTTD's drops/bumps to Dune starting from Saturday, you would be less than 2% off in its total gross so far. Tuesday would be $3.8 instead the $3.9 and it points to $3.0 for Wed.

 

Gravity has been very close since Sunday as my previous post here showed. That would imply $3.1 for Wed.

 

NTTD's demos are close to Dune's and probably Gravity's too + close subject matter.

HBO Max wasn't a factor in Europe though.

[von Kenni]

44 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

HBO Max wasn't a factor in Europe though.

Yeah, that's why it's a bit surprising that the US still holds so close to NTTD drops/bumps as a whole but then again, the sample is small and just getting started. I took some European countries to sample the difference for 2nd weekend drops. Small 10% skew for Dune which HBO Max should erase and some more. Maybe Dune holdings show the IMAX/PLF resilience. Or, as said, very small samples to deduct.

 

	Dune	NTTD
Netherlands	-15.80%	-26%
France	-36.20%	-43.40%
Germany	-24.50%	-21.60%
Spain	-41.70%	-39%
Italy	-33.90%	-40.50%
avg.	-30.42%	-34.10%

[Porthos]

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
-	(-)	No Time to Die	United Artists	$1,212,289	-18%	-47%	3,807	$318	$124,303,479	20
-	(-)	Halloween Kills	Universal	$959,875	-15%	-52%	3,727	$258	$76,184,100	13
-	(-)	Venom: Let There be Carnage	Sony Pictures	$615,172	-18%	-43%	3,513	$175	$184,079,491	27
-	(-)	Ron’s Gone Wrong	20th Century…	$319,330	-31%		3,560	$90	$8,460,100	6
-	(-)	The Addams Family 2	United Artists	$260,088	-17%	-37%	2,907	$89	$49,311,258	27
-	(-)	The Last Duel	20th Century…	$242,093	-21%	-39%	3,065	$79	$9,310,527	13
-	(-)	Shang-Chi and the Legend …	Walt Disney	$162,029	-17%	-41%	1,600	$101	$221,518,980	55
-	(-)	The French Dispatch	Searchlight …	$141,608	-1%		52	$2,723	$1,768,028	6
-	(-)	Free Guy	20th Century…	$18,009	-19%	-66%	380	$47	$121,301,541	76
-	(-)	Dear Evan Hansen	Universal	$8,940	-23%	-73%	489	$18	$14,861,205	34
-	(-)	Candyman	Universal	$8,185	-5%	-66%	786	$10	$61,062,475	62
-	(-)	Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney	$3,976	-27%	-51%	145	$27	$116,864,687	90
-	(-)	The Eyes of Tammy Faye	Searchlight …	$823	-27%	-72%	25	$33	$2,391,310	41
		13		$3,952,417

[von Kenni]

Meanwhile, Dune passed $50 million domestic on day six with a $3.1 million (-21% from Tuesday) Wednesday gross. It’ll end its first week with $54 million as it heads into weekend two mostly unopposed by Antlers, The French Dispatch and Last Night in Soho. A second-weekend gross closer to $20 million (Blade Runner 2049 dropped 52% in weekend two) than $15 million (Power Rangers dropped 64% from a $40 million opening) would be ideal.

-Scott Mendelson

 

Oh, yes. Exactly on bar with Gravity and slightly better than NTTD so far since the opening. Definitely in game for 20+ 2nd weekend and even sub 50% drop, but at least closer to 20 than 15. NTTD came -56.9% down after the Indigenous weekend so on bar to hit that 50-55% drop window. Tomorrow's number might tell some more but looking good for now.

[von Kenni]

[Legion Again]

17.6 with nttd’s wknd/wed. 25M with gravity’s, but I don’t think that’s a great comp.  16M with The Last Duel’s.   
 

I would say maybe 2:1 weighted of NTTD vs TLD is 17M, then a roughly 6% penalty fo Halloween gives ~16M or -61%. But let’s see.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

17.6 with nttd’s wknd/wed. 25M with gravity’s, but I don’t think that’s a great comp.  16M with The Last Duel’s.   
 

I would say maybe 2:1 weighted of NTTD vs TLD is 17M, then a roughly 6% penalty fo Halloween gives ~16M or -61%. But let’s see.

 

 

why should it do worse than Bond. There is nothing worthwhile releasing this week wile HK opened to 50m in bond's 2nd weekend. It should have way softer drop than Bond did in its 1st thursday. It will have mediocre friday increase but that should still be enough to do better than Bond(in % basis). 

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

why should it do worse than Bond. There is nothing worthwhile releasing this week wile HK opened to 50m in bond's 2nd weekend. It should have way softer drop than Bond did in its 1st thursday. It will have mediocre friday increase but that should still be enough to do better than Bond(in % basis). 

Fair point on the competition, should be able to beat NTTD’s Th drop. Though despite expected combined grosses of just 25-30 or so, there is a lot opening this weekend — antlers, soho, MHA, and dispatch will probably get like 6500 locations combined. I think a weaker Friday bump is a pretty reasonable expectation. And although the wed/sat is pretty comparable, being available on max could hurt the 2nd wknd/wed especially if PLF spillover runs out.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

Meanwhile, Dune passed $50 million domestic on day six with a $3.1 million (-21% from Tuesday) Wednesday gross. It’ll end its first week with $54 million as it heads into weekend two mostly unopposed by Antlers, The French Dispatch and Last Night in Soho. A second-weekend gross closer to $20 million (Blade Runner 2049 dropped 52% in weekend two) than $15 million (Power Rangers dropped 64% from a $40 million opening) would be ideal.

-Scott Mendelson

 

Oh, yes. Exactly on bar with Gravity and slightly better than NTTD so far since the opening. Definitely in game for 20+ 2nd weekend and even sub 50% drop, but at least closer to 20 than 15. NTTD came -56.9% down after the Indigenous weekend so on bar to hit that 50-55% drop window. Tomorrow's number might tell some more but looking good for now.

This is with losing Dolby showtimes to the Soho early access screening. Sub-50 here we come  

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Avatar Legion said:

Fair point on the competition, should be able to beat NTTD’s Th drop. Though despite expected combined grosses of just 25-30 or so, there is a lot opening this weekend — antlers, soho, MHA, and dispatch will probably get like 6500 locations combined. I think a weaker Friday bump is a pretty reasonable expectation. And although the wed/sat is pretty comparable, being available on max could hurt the 2nd wknd/wed especially if PLF spillover runs out.

Can you project rest of the week that gets it to 60% drop. Bcos I looked at MTC1 and I can definitely see MTC1 dropping < 50% from true friday. 

[Legion Again]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bcos I looked at MTC1 and I can definitely see MTC1 dropping < 50% from true friday. 

To end up at 16 I would be looking at about:

2.75
5

6.86

4.14

 

If Fri has a 50% drop that would be great, probably 19+ weekend!

Edited October 29, 2021 by Avatar Legion

[narniadis]

Anything over 17.5 is a great hold considering the usual negatives for 2nd weekend /HMax/ Halloween, etc. My assumption with a weak Friday will still be it hitting between 17-19 since it is holding well on the weekdays. 

[ThomasNicole]

Even BOP is predicting 17-18M. I think it will have a great drop, between 18-20M, let's see, complete lack of competition will help.

[Legion Again]

Basically I think the sat bounce should be stronger but that will nearly cancel with Halloween on Sun and wknd drop should be quite close to true fri drop.

[Starphanluke]

A good 2nd weekend drop would be nice for Dune considering it'll probably get hit hard when it loses all PLFs to Eternals.

[lilmac]

I will have seen Dune 6x by the end of the weekend. It’s near perfect. Mad Max, LOTR franchise and now Dune. That’s my list of films this century that are eminently rewatchable. Small list. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by lilmac

[nguyenkhoi282]

16 minutes ago, lilmac said:

I will have seen Dune 6x by the end of the weekend. Mad Max, LOTR franchise and now Dune. That’s my list of films this century that are eminently rewatchable. Near perfect. Small list. 

I can relate. After Dune i've rechecked most movies in my hard drive and i can't really think of more than a handful of movies i want to rewatch over and over again like this. 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

Anything above 16 million $ is great!

[von Kenni]

After analyzing comparison demos more, I think WB has positioned Dune in marketing near perfection, and that will help it to maximize its legs. It already helped last weekend and will help in the 2nd one. Here's why:

 

Dune is at its heart a serious scifi film as Interstellar, Gravity, Martian, and Ad Astra, yet also a bit different that broadens its demos slightly (art, fantasy, cinephiles). It doesn't fall to Star Wars type lighter space fantasy or Star Trek type of light space action (that it nowadays unfortunately is). Where these serious scifis (when they aren't bad movies like Ad Astra) in pre-pandemic times could draw $55-65m OWs their demos are older like NTTD (~59% > 34yrs / 36% > 45yrs): Gravity 59% > 34yrs, Interstellar 75% > 25yrs. The older demos have also partly given amazing 4-5x legs in this scifi category.

 

How Dune has been marketed & positioned is between MCU's younger demos and scifi/NTTD older demos with more action backed (&misleading) trailers & Fortine, yet plenty of ads, interviews and articles in media for older demos too. And it has worked:

 

Shares of 18-34 demo: NTTD 39% - Dune 54% - Venom 2 64%.

 

It was a fine line to walk for not to piss of either demos (~ MCU / the older serious scifi) with disappointing expectations (misleading trailers for MCUs) or off putting marketing (action packed trailers for the serious scifi fans), and I think they pulled it off and found a near perfect lane for Dune. How it seems to go with Dune and its opportunities for great legs:

 

+Younger demos flock the IMAX/PLSs during the 1st & 2nd week. Expecting a sharper drop after that.

+For older demos IMAX/PLF are not so important but the difference between small & big screen can be. NTTD brought back part of the pandemic hesitant audience (1/3 >35yrs came first time in cinema in 2yrs!) and the recent openings (NTTD, Venom 2, Halloween) are lowering the hesitancy to go to cinemas for the older demos. All in all, older scifi fans haven't had a real scifi flick such as Gravity, Interstellar, Martian in a long while and Dune's excellent WOM should keep bringing them to cinema for some time.

 

Dune's lane can be best of both worlds which is fuelled by excellent WOM and rewatchability (30% said they'd watch it again in cinema after seeing it the first time & there seems to be a consistent experience people saying how it gets better after seeing twice or more... not just on this forum but from Nolan to me&average Joe). Sure, HBO Max cuts its legs, but we know already that the effect is less than with other DaD releases, and perhaps Dune is the only one so far that the "must see in cinema" aspect draws even some people who watch it on HBO Max to the cinema to see it again.

 

This weekend and even the following looks good for Dune with these dynamics. I think we're seeing it performing over expectations for some time.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by von Kenni

[Krissykins]

Great Wednesday hold for Halloween Kills.