M37 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Looking at early presales, I am feeling very good about this breaking out. My early prediction would be 80/275m kind of run but it could go higher. Its going to be the 1st big opener/breakout of this year. Those would be some pretty strong legs For comparison, Oppy had a $127M first week, held very well w/ IMAX draw, and finished at $325M (2.55x). A similar OW in March is only going to bring in ~$100M for the full week, so legs would have to be even better. John Wick 4 had a $74M OW, $95M OWeek, and $187M final (2x OWeek), and that was the best of any March release last year, with the only competition being D&D and Mario (not direct, but big enough to impact everything else) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) 100/285/700 Edited January 26 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, M37 said: Those would be some pretty strong legs For comparison, Oppy had a $127M first week, held very well w/ IMAX draw, and finished at $325M (2.55x). A similar OW in March is only going to bring in ~$100M for the full week, so legs would have to be even better. John Wick 4 had a $74M OW, $95M OWeek, and $187M final (2x OWeek), and that was the best of any March release last year, with the only competition being D&D and Mario (not direct, but big enough to impact everything else) Difference is Market is dead leading to the release and I am not seeing anything for adults even beyond that. Its going to keep chugging along especially if it gets a universal rave. Oppenheimer was slightly impacted by other juggernaut as much as barbenheimer effect was a positive. It did not have that many PLF outside Imax. Dune has it all and I am expecting it to hold most of them as its going to be must watch on the best screen possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) Imagine if they released this on Dec 22 with 10 days where people are off and then like 2 months with no competition. $350M+ DOM easy. Edited January 26 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Difference is Market is dead leading to the release and I am not seeing anything for adults even beyond that. Its going to keep chugging along especially if it gets a universal rave. Oppenheimer was slightly impacted by other juggernaut as much as barbenheimer effect was a positive. It did not have that many PLF outside Imax. Dune has it all and I am expecting it to hold most of them as its going to be must watch on the best screen possible. Dead market leading up to release should lead to a bigger opening, catching a wave of pent-up demand, no limitation on capacity (except PLF obv), not legs though. The only significant (>$100M total) Jan-April releases to manage those kind of legs were Lost City (2.64x), kids movie Mario (2.40x), and the most plausible comp Uncharted (2.43x), but which wasn’t a brand name sequel with a natural push for a more frontloaded opening If Dune 2 is going to get to $275M (setting aside that total is in the “dead zone”), it far more likely than not will need an OW around (at least?) $100M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 hours ago, Morieris said: ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 First movie had strong legs especially OS and even day and date release on Max didn't hurt dom run. This time, there will be only advantages minus Russia (its Top 3 OS market) but increases everywhere will compensate. As other posinted out, it's the first spectacle of the year so it should comfortably blow up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Made the OS Thread: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) 13 hours ago, M37 said: Those would be some pretty strong legs For comparison, Oppy had a $127M first week, held very well w/ IMAX draw, and finished at $325M (2.55x). A similar OW in March is only going to bring in ~$100M for the full week, so legs would have to be even better. John Wick 4 had a $74M OW, $95M OWeek, and $187M final (2x OWeek), and that was the best of any March release last year, with the only competition being D&D and Mario (not direct, but big enough to impact everything else) March legs do well b/c of varied spring breaks and then Easter...I think early March rivals summer legs when it comes to non-kid-oriented fare... Edited January 26 by TwoMisfits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Yeha, I think 700M WW is happening but I don't want to jinx it. We saw in Spiderverse case how hard it is despite reviews, WOM, schools out, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/24/2024 at 2:54 PM, Valonqar said: ROTK-like clean sweep here we come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Ozymandias said: True. One is the King the other is the God Emperor. Edited January 26 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WittyUsername Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I would be somewhat surprised if this makes more than ATSV, at least domestically. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Valonqar said: Yeha, I think 700M WW is happening but I don't want to jinx it. We saw in Spiderverse case how hard it is despite reviews, WOM, schools out, etc. The problem with Spider-verse was its international gross. Like Dune made almost as much as Spiderverse did internationally. 250+450 is possible for Dune 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said: March legs do well b/c of varied spring breaks and then Easter...I think early March rivals summer legs when it comes to non-kid-oriented fare... Had some time today, so whipped this up, looking at mutlipliers for $50M+ grossing March films (excluding animation) Going back through 2017, there's a fairly consistent range, with all but a few high and low end outliers falling in a 1.85-2.15x OWeek (~2.45-2.80x OW). These values are comparable to summer, if you adjust for seasons by focusing on the full opening week multi. For example, ATSV had solid legs and a 2.24x OWeek (but 3.16x OW) , while a more average Transformers ROTB was 1.97x OWeek (2.57x OW), a smidge below the March average/median For an $80M OW (~$105M OWeek) to leg out to $275M would be nearly identical to Lost City, which is head and shoulders above everything else, and I think there are a few reasons why that is not a comp I would lean on to set expectations for Dune II 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, WittyUsername said: I would be somewhat surprised if this makes more than ATSV, at least domestically. I don't exect that boxoffice but I count on OS. 2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: The problem with Spider-verse was its international gross. Like Dune made almost as much as Spiderverse did internationally. 250+450 is possible for Dune 2. Yep, that's why I think DUNC2 has better shot to get to 700M. OS skewing makes it more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The Dune Part 2 Ticket Presales must flow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 22 minutes ago, dudalb said: The Dune Part 2 Ticket Presales must flow.... and fight like demons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpiderByte Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Managed to squeeze in a decent seat for the early showing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
von Kenni Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Loving the conversation here if Dune Part 2 is going to make $275m DOM and $700m WW. $500m WW would make me already smile and feeling confident to see Dune Messiah. $600m and over would be gravy and $700m or more just dreams from the deep. With that I'll listen Sardaukar 🎶 on repeat. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...