MG10 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said: Does anyone know why there is such a big difference between Mexico and Brazil? Usually for Marvel movies they are quite close in total gross... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Can it hit 600m with actuals. Domestic could add 5m. So OS needs around 8m bump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 43 minutes ago, MG10 said: Does anyone know why there is such a big difference between Mexico and Brazil? Usually for Marvel movies they are quite close in total gross... Because Mexico had a full 5-Day OW instead of the typical 3-Day. Final grosses should put them closer both in the $60M+ area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Immortal Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 42 minutes ago, MG10 said: Does anyone know why there is such a big difference between Mexico and Brazil? Usually for Marvel movies they are quite close in total gross... Mexico is a market with big openings but weaker legs as compared to Brazil. For EG Mexico opened about 30% higher but finished with ~10% less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 (edited) 40 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Can it hit 600m with actuals. Domestic could add 5m. So OS needs around 8m bump. It will be close. OS bump is guaranteed cause estimates never report all numbers. But whether it's going to be 8M, we'll have to see. Either way, OS is going up and dom very likely too. Edited December 19, 2021 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jma22 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 (edited) 56 minutes ago, MG10 said: Does anyone know why there is such a big difference between Mexico and Brazil? Usually for Marvel movies they are quite close in total gross... Brazil did 102M lc and that means: 17,9 $ In April 2019 ( Endgame release) 102M lc would mean: 25M $ Edited December 19, 2021 by jma22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 That German number look a bit underwhelming by comparison. Wish omi had never came, Covid certainly have some impact on NWH, just we can't quantify it. Even at 5-10% impact, that is easily costing NWH another could be100m+ gross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 If OS actuals can get to $341M then we'd be at $600M! Y'all remember when Deadline said $290M.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infamous5445 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 hours ago, GoblinXXR said: So with Infinity War level OS legs, we'd be looking at about $865M OS-C-J. Lets assume China isn't happening. We know this could be the highest grossing CBM ever in Japan, but lets go with $60M for now. That puts us at $925M with below average holiday legs (TFA OS-C legs = 3.6, for comparison). Domestic is opening to around $255-260M. I don't see legs going below TLJ (2.82x) and I think 3.2-3.3x is possible. I don't see it getting to TFA's 3.78x level but who the hell knows.... All in all, I think we're headed for $1.6-1.8B WW-C. What's your most pessimistic scenario? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 (edited) 42 minutes ago, infamous5445 said: What's your most pessimistic scenario? With bad legs OS, no China, much smaller-than-expected Japan and the few other markets that haven't opened, lets say $780-800M OS. With bad legs domestically, lets say $620-650M. So pessimistic about $1.4-1.45B. Edited December 19, 2021 by GoblinXXR 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Reviewing all the data we have and the reception/WOM this is getting, I think $1B OS-C is going to happen. Even TROS managed 2.77x its OS opening. If NWH just matches that, it does $930M without Japan, Norway, Thailand or the Philippines. Those 4 countries can add another $80-100M. Hell, given the great WOM I think $1.1-1.15B OS-C is possible! I wouldn't bank on that, but 3x OS legs over the holidays wouldn't be that odd. TFA had a really good/great reception and it did 3.6x OS-C opening. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Too bad this seems like would have been an easy $2B+ grosser without Covid. Amazing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Jiffy said: Too bad this seems like would have been an easy $2B+ grosser without Covid. Amazing. If there are no major restrictions in the next 3-4 weeks, the only thing holding it back from $2B will be not opening in China. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Is it official that NWH won`t open in China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, fmpro said: Is it official that NWH won`t open in China? Not official but we have no reason to think it will at this point, so everyone is just assuming it won't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 It's interesting how Chinese govt is suddenly so intent on making their market irrelevant to Hollywood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Other OW: Argentina ($6.8M), Peru ($4.4M), Colombia ($3.7M), Ecuador ($3.7M), Bolivia ($1.5M), Central America ($4.8M); Indonesia ($8.2M), Taiwan ($7.3M), Hong Kong ($6.3M), Malaysia ($5.1M); Saudi Arabia ($5.2M), UAE ($4.1M), Israel ($2.7M), Egypt ($1.3M), Kuwait ($1.2M); Ukraine ($2.4M), Turkey ($1.4M); New Zealand ($2.3M). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I view a China release as likely and would bet the over on TFA WW at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, Weird Alegion said: I view a China release as likely and would bet the over on TFA WW at this point Likely? Any rumblings out there? At this point it feels more unlikely than likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, GoblinXXR said: Likely? Any rumblings out there? At this point it feels more unlikely than likely. Just going by Olive's recent post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
