Spiderman : No Way Home - Box office thread

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Only one I will believe is if Corpse says so.

Fair 😛

[Legion Again]

Corpse also low, RIP

[infamous5445]

I just want this movie in the 1.7-1.9B range cause why not

[Agafin]

6 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

Brief off-topic but DH2 actually barely missed ¥10 billion in Japan with a final gross of ¥9.67 billion.

Man, deadly hallows pt 2 had some really incredible exchange rates (and Sorcerer's stone sh***y ER rates). HP8 not even half of HP1 in ¥ but over three quarters in $.

 

It's been a decade though and the dollar has never been so weak again. The American economy is really strong so we'll likely not see the dollar fall below ¥80 (or €0.8 or £0.65 etc) anytime soon, or ever. Which is a good thing if you are american.

Edited December 20, 2021 by Agafin

[Issac Newton]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Only one I will believe is if Corpse says so.

Well, I don't mean any offense here. But, as an example I would say that Demon Slayer Mugen Train original forecast finals was ¥7B but it went to make a massive ¥40.43B!!! Rest is up to what you understood. But, at least, I would like to neutralize negative hype ahead of Japanese premiere 👀

[KP1025]

Another interesting feat to aim for with NWH if it doesn't get a China release. It has a chance to become the first $1 billion OS grosser without a single international market contributing more than $100 million. This would require a strong performance in Japan and better holds than projected from Charlie in the major markets (with UK staying just under $100 million).

[Purple Minion]

North America: Sony has just made it official: their latest Marvel movie Spider-Man: No Way Home is the second highest opening ever at the domestic box office with $260M, beating Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War‘s $257.698M.

 

It will go significantly up OS, in Mexico alone it was underestimated by $1M.

[John Rambo]

5 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Another interesting feat to aim for with NWH if it doesn't get a China release. It has a chance to become the first $1 billion OS grosser without a single international market contributing more than $100 million. This would require a strong performance in Japan and better holds than projected from Charlie in the major markets (with UK staying just under $100 million).

Why does china release for this have a problem? mostly by Jan or Feb this will get a date from next years import quota?

 

Venom 2 is understandable i guess due to hardys comments.

[Gavin Feng]

 

look, what it is?

 

 

 

 

[Danhjpn]

 

 

[Olive]

Always love nice and round numbers.

[Sophia Jane]

Incredible

[MG10]

 

37 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

 

 

 

Insane 😮

[titanic2187]

The two biggest hollywood movie of the year are called No time to die, and No way home. We found a way to save moviegoing culture! 

 

So it is time to reconsider changing name for 2022 release, DS: No rational in multiverse, Avatar 2, No shape of water, Jurassic world 3 : Oh No! and Thor 4: No one Love you

[XXR vs XXR]

Now that we have actuals, I'm updating my scenarios. They all include a China caveat and some level of COVID restriction/hesitancy. 


Bear Case
2.4x OS legs on already released markets. Unreleased markets (not including China) do $40M total. 2.6x DOM legs. Taking off 8% of the total for COVID related restrictions/hesitancy. China release in January, $250M.  

$1,412M - C

$1,662M + C

 

 

Base Case

2.7x OS legs on already released markets. Unreleased markets (not including China) do $60M total. 2.9x DOM legs. Taking off 5% of the total for COVID related restrictions/hesitancy. China release in January, $350M. 

$1,648M - C

$1,998M + C

 

 

Bull Case 

3.1x OS legs on already released markets. Unreleased markets (not including China) do $80M total. 3.3x DOM legs. Taking off 3% of the total for COVID related restrictions/hesitancy. China release in January, $450M. 

$1,935M - C

$2,385M + C 
 

[fabiopazzo2]

39 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The two biggest hollywood movie of the year are called No time to die, and No way home. We found a way to save moviegoing culture! 

 

So it is time to reconsider changing name for 2022 release, DS: No rational in multiverse, Avatar 2, No shape of water, Jurassic world 3 : Oh No! and Thor 4: No one Love you

Out of like Sorry 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Momori said:

https://deadline.com/2021/12/spider-man-no-way-home-sony-tom-rothman-congratulations-to-staff-1234899655/

 

Sony’s Tom Rothman Congratulates Staff On ‘Spider-Man’ Success: “Spidey And Sony Have Struck A Mighty Blow” - Analysts are already talking that it’s bound to be the first $1 billion-grossing movie during the pandemic. Domestically, projections are ranging from $713M-$950M.

 

[Valonqar]

It's going to make 1B in a couple of days. I think 2 billion is happening China or not. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

It's going to make 1B in a couple of days. I think 2 billion is happening China or not. 

 

It would have to have extremely long/strong legs for that to happen. It's not impossible but it'll be very hard. 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

It would have to have extremely long/strong legs for that to happen. It's not impossible but it'll be very hard. 

 

I know but it's looking good competition-wise. January is empty. Scream will have fans but it won't hurt much and Morbius is end of the month. Also, holiday numbers are going to be crazy af.