Ghostbusters 2021 weekend Nov 19-21: Afterlife $44M OW | E: $10.8m | RD: $8.1m

[vafrow]

44 minutes ago, Felandria said:

I liked 2016 fine, but my biggest issue by far is that it would be so much better if you simply removed Kristen Wig’s character entirely.

 

McCarthy, Jones and especially McKinnon and Hemsworth kill it, but the chemistry was all off, The other three ladies slotted in almost perfectly, Melissa was the Ray, Kate was the Egon and Leslie was the Winston, but Wiig’s character didn’t fit the dynamic, nobody is saying she had to try and be Venkman, but when everyone else fits into the puzzle and she doesn’t it throws everything off.

 

 

To me, it always felt that her role should have been given to Sandra Bullock (who may have been offered it for all we know, but didn't want it). It would have given someone who we've seen that can play effectively against Melissa McCarthy, but more importantly, would have given the movie a legitimate and pretty universally beloved movie star. 

 

A more grounded actor at the centre would let the others stars go bigger in their roles. 

[WrathOfHan]

Dwayne's busting out the audience scores again  

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

50 minutes ago, Felandria said:

I liked 2016 fine, but my biggest issue by far is that it would be so much better if you simply removed Kristen Wig’s character entirely.

 

McCarthy, Jones and especially McKinnon and Hemsworth kill it, but the chemistry was all off, The other three ladies slotted in almost perfectly, Melissa was the Ray, Kate was the Egon and Leslie was the Winston, but Wiig’s character didn’t fit the dynamic, nobody is saying she had to try and be Venkman, but when everyone else fits into the puzzle and she doesn’t it throws everything off.

 

 

That’s interesting, Kristen’s character makes me laugh the most lol, I just find her reactions to anything hilarious, not only here. Everyone is different! 
 

 

Also, congratulations to No Time To Die:

 

 

It’ll pass Avatar here in the UK today or tomorrow to become the fourth biggest film, of all time. Insane. 

[John Marston]

No Time to Die passes F9

 

https://deadline.com/2021/11/no-time-to-die-highest-grossing-film-2021-pandemic-worldwide-box-office-1234878052/

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Dwayne's busting out the audience scores again  

 

 

 

What's funny is that it's still playing at a handful of theaters (Cinemark and non-chain) around me in its third weekend in theaters and second week on streaming (tick, tick...Boom! meanwhile was just dropped everywhere after playing the week before its streaming release date). If only they were reporting the box office numbers because I'm guessing it must be doing pretty well (for the circumstances).

[excel1]

What really hurt Ghostbusters 2016 was how unfunny the trailers were. None of the jokes landed at all - I remember watching the trailer with CIVIL WAR and it was cringeworthy. 

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

And nothing of value was lost

 

WSS OW > DEH DOM Total (15.8m)?

 

ITH opened at 11.5 but had HBO Max to contend with.  WSS is theatrical only, but has some baggage of its own, plus has the unenviable task of debuting the week before NWH.  Even though it's radically different genres, I still maintain that "saving up for a mega movie" is a thing.

 

Does have Spielberg's name attached, mind.

 

Interesting or dead in the water? 

[efialtes76]

Wiig and McKinnon are the best of GB2016.

Edited November 20, 2021 by efialtes76

[Maggie]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

WSS OW > DEH DOM Total (15.8m)?

 

ITH opened at 11.5 but had HBO Max to contend with.  WSS is theatrical only, but has some baggage of its own, plus has the unenviable task of debuting the week before NWH.  Even though it's radically different genres, I still maintain that "saving up for a mega movie" is a thing.

 

Does have Spielberg's name attached, mind.

 

Interesting or dead in the water? 

WSS has some things going for it, but the older adults are still not coming back to theaters in droves. I hope over 100M, it's Spielberg after all, but i wouldn't be surprised if it bombed with UNDer 50M. At least it will be good

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, Maggie said:

WSS has some things going for it, but the older adults are still not coming back to theaters in droves. I hope over 100M, it's Spielberg after all, but i wouldn't be surprised if it bombed with UNDer 50M. At least it will be good

 

Well, yes. That's easily the biggest thing going against this not-a-club-but-kinda-spitballing-ideas-right-now.

 

But that's why I brought up ITH as something of a yardstick.  

 

Fact is, adult-skewing films have not done well at all.  But mid-10s isn't completely out of the question, I think.  Haven't checked all of them though so it's mostly just fuzzy memories right now.

 

At the same time, WSS OW > DEH DOM TOTAL is funny IMO, which is why I wanted to get some thoughts on it.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Porthos

[Cmasterclay]

I've always said that Gucci and West Side Story are the barometer for adults coming back to theaters at all, but at this point I don't see either above 50.

[filmlover]

West Side Story will likely settle for the just posted Long Range Forecast total of $55-85M, with the higher end of that being in the same area as the past few Spielberg dramas that were released in non-pandemic times (Bridge of Spies, The Post). For a second adaptation of a musical about rival gangs with no starpower beyond the legendary director's reputation and a target audience that still hasn't returned to the movies in full force, that would be acceptable enough. At least there's no chance it'll be a certified stinker like Dear Evan Hansen since we already know the play works on celluloid. Maybe the only hope for movies targeting the 35 and older crowd really is being part of an iconic property (like Bond or Top Gun 2, the latter of which will definitely skew older for the most part as a direct sequel to a 35 year old movie).

[Cmasterclay]

We obviously pay more attention to movies because box office forum but another wave is happening despite boosters and availability to children, we have massive issues with price, supply chain, and labor shortages, and many remote workplaces are never returning to the office. The world has fundamentally changed and we are never going back. The always in our phones, Netfilx at home trend is now permanent. 

[filmlover]

Wonder how C'mon C'mon is doing in the few theaters it's currently in. Doesn't seem like there's been much buzz for it (despite strong reviews and being Joaquin's first on-screen appearance since Joker/his Oscar win) and the aforementioned problems facing prestige fare (Belfast looking at a 50%+ drop with its small-ish theater count staying as put is pretty crummy news, wonder when it'll be available on PVOD).

[TinRoyce]

3 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

 

 

 

@Eric Venkman Yes, I agree and I think I didn't say the opposite anywhere, i.e. didn't say that G2016 wasn't review bombed. It certainly was and can be seen e.g. in those IMDB ratings distributions, where there is a huge number of 1s and a half of that number of 10s that skew the real general audience sentiments.

 

Also, in my earlier comment I knew that the reference was about RT critics but I tried to between lines emphasize the audience response difference and importance of it.

 

What I'm trying to do here is make the case that GA is better received by the general audiences, and when you take out the effects of review-bombings, IMDB male skews, or whatever else tainting the numbers you can still make the comparison that GA is significantly better received by the general audience. Should it be so? That we can argue as much as we like, but the evidence for the case is pretty strong:

 

RT audience score 49% - 95% (probably dropping some still) - is someone saying that if you take review bombings out the G2016 score would be close to 90%? Maybe 60% Maybe even 70% but 90%?

 

IMDB 6.8 vs. 7.8 - in both cases IMDB algorithms (you can go and see the distributions yourself) counter the review bombings.. if it wouldn't the G2016 number would be considerably lower

 

Cinemascore B+ - A-

 

PostTrak 57% - 69% definite recommend (maybe this is one of the most reliable measurements when taken from actual viewers right after seeing it?)

As there's no magical "ghostbusters effect" it makes more sense to compare each film to a broader set of big studio films. 

 

I don't think  @Krissykins is right to say this is barely better than a B+ cinemascore because we don't have to just rely on cinemascore (otherwise I'd agree that we shouldn't care about a one level cinemascore gap). Films with an identical (+/- 1 point) verified user scores are 2:1 "A" cinemascores to A- (16 films) and I spotchecked the film's posttrak numbers against a few adventure-ish films with an A or A- cinemascore. While they're below many A's, it's identicial to both Free Guy (A cinemascore) and Dune (A-) on both % recommend and % favorable opinion and is significantly better in such ratings than some other A- scores like the second Jumanji reboot film. I just think this paints the picture of a very "strong" A- cinemascore and if you ran the survey 100 times you'd get an "A" result in x% of results (though critic reviews imply that 2:1 ratio is too generous). It just looks like a film on the borderline between an A and A- score. I don't think these are hyper precise numbers.

Now let's pivot to GB2016. Verified audience scores are heavily skewed positive so there's absolutely no way Ghostbusters 2016 would have gotten anything close to a 70 (which is equivalent to a B/B- cinemascore). You get a pretty decent fit between verified user scores and cinemascore by subtracting 7 points of verified user score for each step down the cinemascore ladder (though there's still a good amount of overlap on edges). I have a weaker sense of posttrak than I do of verified RT user % but that suggests to me that it's closer to a "true" B+ cinemascore. Zombieland 2 had a 54% definite recommend. The best A-/B+ cinemascore comps I can think of pre-date deadline posting postrak data (Spy), or aren't theatrical releases. I agree with @AJG  that we should completely ignore stuff like imdb that had brigades and all around weird skews.

[Ronin46]

Just now, filmlover said:

Wonder how C'mon C'mon is doing in the few theaters it's currently in. Doesn't seem like there's been much buzz for it (despite strong reviews and being Joaquin's first on-screen appearance since Joker/his Oscar win) and the aforementioned problems facing prestige fare (Belfast looking at a 50%+ drop with its small-ish theater count staying as put is pretty crummy news, wonder when it'll be available on PVOD).

 

Its expanding to over 1000 cinemas over Thanksgiving (from 580).

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Its expanding to over 1000 cinemas over Thanksgiving (from 580).

Ah, didn't know it was in that many this weekend. Surprised it's going that wide but most theaters are still starving for content to fill all their screens (with so many holdovers making little) so might as well.

Edited November 20, 2021 by filmlover

[von Kenni]

8 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

Yeah, the pandemic effects for sure. IMHO the brand can be viewed both weak and strong.

 

It is strong in the way how it has permeated through the pop culture since the eighties through reruns, music (perhaps the biggest single contributor), video games, parodies, and crossovers. The foundation is at least strongish for certain demos that are enough to propel it for a bigger OW that we are now seeing.

 

However, the true strength is measured in how you can activate it. One external challenge might be that the kids that saw the original OGs (or the reruns in the early 90s) when they were 10-15 yrs old might just be past the time now that their kids would be the same age range and be good for the GA Stanger Things kids vibe to make it a family event. The kids of the OG kids might already be college age so GA is 5-10 years late in that sense. Though the adults that enjoyed GA might have grandchildren that would work with GA, but that's a small demo that pandemic hits the hardest.

 

Also, there's the question how well the slower pacing of GA works for kids today. For most, probably not so well, but I think there are still plenty of kids that haven't grown up their faces glued to the screens and watching hyperactive cartoons and videos all day long. IMDB ratings distribution shows one anomaly: 18-29-yr-olds males are not so much into GA as the rest which fits into all this since they have probably the weakest brand potential for this.

 

Still I think GA has plenty of brand foundation to build on but it all comes to how you trigger and wake that up through marketing. You need longer timeframe actions to do that than the normal movie marketing campaigns. Dune had the same challenge too. It's brand foundation was strong too but harder to trigger because I think much of it was more hidden in the pop-culture and outside pop-culture in the first place. GA has it easier, yet still it's a challenging task to do.

 

The marketing content, familiar things, vibes, etc. looks well done with GA but I wonder, and I don't know, how they managed to reach the right demos the right way and multiple times enough to ignite that hidden brand influence in plain sight. The G2016 debacle made the use of traditional medias, earned PR, much less usable and studios still (maybe MCU is an exception) are pretty bad in using more modern marketing channels in creative and data-driven ways.

 

I think it's almost a miracle they pulled this off so well as it seems. I think it comes to the love that was put in from all the people participating in GA that made it possible. It seems to really resonate with the audiences. However, that can give it great legs but doesn't by itself guarantee a stellar OW.

 

$40m+ would be a great result, $35m+ a good one, $30m+ meh, and under that another one bites the dust.

 

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

“An older-leaning audience here for Ghostbusters: Afterlife with 72% over 25.”

 

Thats quite surprising, and 47% over 35. 
 

Should be good for legs, although it’s not playing as much to families as first predicted. 

 

Here's all the Deadline PostTrak demo info. All seems to fit what I earlier expected. The older demos make sense since those who were 10-15 yrs old 1985-90 are now 40-50 yrs old and adults who saw of course older. Also Stranger Things 2nd largest demo is around 35-45 now, although largest younger. Happy to see that 1/3 were adults with a kid under 12!

 

Looks like all demos have liked it or loved it although men under 25 give it the lowest 67% avg grade and on the other end is 45-54 age group with 90% avg grade. Women seem to like it a bit more than men, which also IMDB shows.

 

Yeap, people are gonna watch this well now and all the way through holidays. It really seems to have those ingredients that Empire was telling about awhile back, and could have that zeitgeist bump, i.e. heart warming family flick that caters a variety of people while still having a good story and characters that you care about, while the world around us burns.

 

https://deadline.com/2021/11/ghostbusters-afterlife-opening-weekend-1234877444/

 

According to Comscore and Screen Engine’s PostTrak, close to a third of the audience was comprised of a family adult and child under 12. PostTrak parents gave the movie five stars, while kids under 12 gave it 4 1/2 stars.

 

Overall, general audiences gave Ghostbusters: Afterlife four stars, with an 82% positive.

 

Of all the demos giving Ghostbusters: Afterlife its best grades on PostTrak were the 45-54 bunch (who turned out at 11% ), who gave the pic a 90% grade. They were kids when the first 1984 movie came out. All of this is enough to proton-boost Ghostbusters: Afterlife through the holiday week into the Black Friday frame, especially as kids are increasingly off from school prior to Thanksgiving, and completely off for the holiday and Friday.

 

 

Kids under 12 gave Ghostbusters: Afterlife an 88% positive rating and a 55% definite recommend. Feig’s previous Ghostbusters drew females, and the Reitman-directed sequel here brought in 60% guys, 40% women. An older-leaning audience here for Ghostbusters: Afterlife with 72% over 25.

In addition, the prime moviegoing 18-34 demo only repped 44% of the crowd. Those over 35 repped 47%, which is very encouraging. Further broken down, men over 25 repped 43% of all Ghostbusters: Afterlife ticket buyers (grade 85%), women over 25 repped 29% (88% grade), men under 25 were 17% (67% grade) while women under 25 numbered 11% (75% grade). Diversity draw was 48% Caucasian, a strong Latino and Hispanic turnout of 25%, 11% African American and 9% Asian.

[Eric is Quiet]

48 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I've always said that Gucci and West Side Story are the barometer for adults coming back to theaters at all, but at this point I don't see either above 50.

I did a cursory look at sales for Gucci the other day, and FWIW it does seem to be doing better than recent adult fare, but I haven’t really placed it under any comps just yet. Still I am hopeful that Gaga at the very least will bring in some of the youths. Plus this and West Side (which is sadly dunzo in my eyes) are the only movies my mom says we have to see together. Maybe it’s a sign

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

My heart sinks for these dramas. I love blockbusters as much as the next guy but I don't want the theaters full of them. A Disney every week becomes numbing. You don't want fast food every night! Some of my favorite memories have been sitting in a dark theater and crowd while an original drama or comedy makes 100 strangers gasp or cry. That word of mouth is electrifying. 

 

See King Richard, Cmon Cmon, Gucci, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley while you can before it's too late.