Ghostbusters 2021 weekend Nov 19-21: Afterlife $44M OW | E: $10.8m | RD: $8.1m

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

It definitely has the signs to go over $150m DOM (3.4 multiplier) and early data OS shows it's way beating G2016's numbers which got $100m OS. Hard to extrapolate all markets yet but if the new European Covid wave doesn't throw a wrench in the works, I can see it grossing $160-200m overseas (albeit not knowing how well content and marketing localization is done) - $310-360m WW. That would be a spectacular result with a $75m budget (4.1-4.8x)

 

It serves family demos and many other demos in a way that can give it long legs and it can go even higher but in anyway hard to imagine WW getting under $250m, if it's already doing much better overseas than G2016. That would already be 3.3x the budget with pandemic times that supresses the WW about 25%. A more than great result.

Huh? This overseas chat seems premature, or am I missing numbers?

 

All I can see from the international threads is that it’s doing well in the UK, it opened at number 2 in Brazil and completely bombed in Germany. 

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[von Kenni]

22 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Huh? This overseas chat seems premature, or am I missing numbers?

 

All I can see from the international threads is that it’s doing well in the UK, it opened at number 2 in Brazil and completely bombed in Germany. 

Perfectly okay to say that premature and we'll get much better numbers after the weekend but where I'm basing the numbers and my "hopefully enlightened" guesses are things like:

 

The UK opening is considerably stronger than G2016. Based on that and the knowing that it most likely has good to great legs in UK as in the US it's heading to at least 50% higher run than the G2016. Since we're just beginning, this can change but I think as an early estimate it's a valid argument to make. I'll expect Nordics delivering the same way.

 

The "bombing" of Germany is still around 30% higher OW than G2016 and with the legs it'll probably get to that 50% higher overall again. In Italy it looks like the same based on Fri & Sat.

 

Based on these early OW results, the legs comparison, Stranger Things global phenomenality, and the demos that it is already reaching in the US, we can see the signs that it can reach at least 50% higher OS than G2016 which would be $150m but room for getting much higher if the legs are there + having broader demo appeal potentials. I think especially Europe is strong for this.

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Perfectly okay to say that premature and we'll get much better numbers after the weekend but where I'm basing the numbers and my "hopefully enlightened" guesses are things like:

 

The UK opening is considerably stronger than G2016. Based on that and the knowing that it most likely has good to great legs in UK as in the US it's heading to at least 50% higher run than the G2016. Since we're just beginning, this can change but I think as an early estimate it's a valid argument to make. I'll expect Nordics delivering the same way.

 

The "bombing" of Germany is still around 30% higher OW than G2016 and with the legs it'll probably get to that 50% higher overall again. In Italy it looks like the same based on Fri & Sat.

 

Based on these early OW results, the legs comparison, Stranger Things global phenomenality, and the demos that it is already reaching in the US, we can see the signs that it can reach at least 50% higher OS than G2016 which would be $150m but room for getting much higher if the legs are there + having broader demo appeal potentials. I think especially Europe is strong for this.

Germany is on the verge of another lockdown, so it’s not surprising the opening of Afterlife has taken a little hit with all the concern. 
 

Whilst a complete lockdown seems unlikely, there will likely be restrictions put in place that will hamper social activity. 

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[von Kenni]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Just to keep the expectations reasonable for Ghostbusters, don't forget Encanto (another family opener and hugely drawing the Hispanic audience which was the one non-Caucasian demo that came out for Ghost-A) opens in 5 days, and Sing 2 is doing sneaks next Saturday, so it's not a clear shot for Ghost-A til Spidey...and it will be dropped almost everywhere by Christmas, so it's gonna make what it's gonna make in 4 weeks, and be pretty done.

 

And what it's gonna make is $100M-Free Guy (which is $121M or so now:), and that will be a very good result, ESPECIALLY b/c the most important thing this movie did for franchise purpose was to make EVERYONE HAPPY who sees it.  There's nothing is this movie to piss you off, make you hate it, even make fun of it.  The franchise itself is healed in the movie and can now have offshoots, sequels, etc.  It is the definition of "feel good", and feel good is what this needed for the next few decades of this franchose's upcoming sequels/spin offs...I may not have loved the movie, but I know no one's walking out hating it...you may feel blah, you may feel bored, but you won't feel disgust...so mission accomplished to get something that can now be the springboard...

 

Good points, and especially that you've seen it and with your family. Even though I have high expectations for its performance it's in any case already a great result. There's perhaps less than 5% chance that it'll don't get 3x budget WW gross which would be $225m, ~0% chance of not turning profit. At this point it's all just extra honey on top of that.

 

Personally, for me this is enough for the Ghostbusters franchise. It's the final chapter like the Last Crusade was for Indiana Jones.

 

Like with the Stranger Things season 1, in all likelihood it's down hill after this, if and when they continue "the franchise".

 

[von Kenni]

Dune is heading $3.1-3.2m weekend which is better than good and keeps it on its trajectory to $110m run neighbourhood. Especially considering that the new releases took 25% of its screens away. NTTD & Venom enjoyed a higher count couple of weeks longer but now there are just more releases to snap them away. Screen count is a small question mark for Dune going forward but it should be fine in the end.

[filmlover]

48 minutes ago, Eric Venkman said:

 

Good start. Probably won't translate to much in expansion but good to see something posting good(ish) numbers in platform release. Assuming Licorice Pizza easily scores the biggest average of any movie this year when it opens in 4 theaters over the long frame next weekend.

Edited November 21, 2021 by filmlover

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[john2000]

Ghostbusters: Afterlife debuted with an estimated $44.0M this weekend (from 4,315 locations).

#Ghostbusters  #GhostbustersAfterlife  #BoxOffice  @SonyPictures  @Ghostbusters https://t.co/kKR6D67shS

[keysersoze123]

Very good for GA looking at where previews where. This will have a good run considering next week will be boosted. 

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[Coldbird]

Venom 2 overtook NTTD

Edited November 21, 2021 by Coldbird

[von Kenni]

Weekend Estimates

 

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	N	Ghostbusters: Afterlife	Sony Pict…	$44,000,000		4,315		$10,197	$44,000,000	1
-	(2)	Clifford the Big Red Dog	Paramount…	$8,100,165	-51%	3,628	-72	$2,233	$33,513,000	2
-	(5)	Venom: Let There be C…	Sony Pict…	$2,770,000	-29%	2,230	-308	$1,242	$206,470,066	8
-	(4)	No Time to Die	United Ar…	$2,705,566	-40%	2,407	-460	$1,124	$154,688,693	7
-	(9)	Spencer	Neon	$690,000	-55%	954	-311	$723	$6,103,390	3
-	N	India Sweets and Spices	Bleecker …	$172,597		343		$503	$172,597	1
-	N	C’mon C’mon	A24	$134,447		5		$26,889	$134,447	1
-	(-)	Julia	Sony Pict…	$42,000	+133%	47	+42	$894	$65,980	2
-	N	Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuc…	IFC Films	$30,000		68		$441	$30,000	1
		9		$58,644,775

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[filmnerdjamie]

9 minutes ago, Eric Venkman said:

 

Film Twitter is shitting a brick right now. Good.

[Maggie]

Good number for G:A. I'm more confident it will post a good total, 130M maybe?

[Maggie]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

Film Twitter is shitting a brick right now. Good.

Nostalgia sells these days, but it seems critics and Film twitter are against it

[Eric Lasagna]