Ghostbusters 2021 weekend Nov 19-21: Afterlife $44M OW | E: $10.8m | RD: $8.1m

[efialtes76]

2 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Dune is heading $3.1-3.2m weekend which is better than good and keeps it on its trajectory to $110m run neighbourhood. Especially considering that the new releases took 25% of its screens away. NTTD & Venom enjoyed a higher count couple of weeks longer but now there are just more releases to snap them away. Screen count is a small question mark for Dune going forward but it should be fine in the end.

Today is the last day for Dune on HBO Max.

[von Kenni]

36 minutes ago, ando said:

Nearly $8M global weekend, $32.9M left until $400M. With Australia, NZ and Vietnam still to come. $400M looking quite likely at this point?

 

Yes, it's most likely getting $395m or more without Aus, NZ & Vietnam which should bring at least $10m altogether and probably some millions more when seeing how Aus is open now, comparing performance with BR2049 there and in the UK. Looking to finish $405-415m now.

[CJohn]

13 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

it won’t be. Just could have restrictions put in place in some countries that might require vaccination proof to get in.  Might cause a bit of a hit, but it’s not shutting down cinemas (or any business for that matter). 

Here in Portugal you will need to show a negative test and vaccination proof. It is madness. Numbers will tank.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

I hadn't fully considered how the prestige audience has kind of been conditioned to expect day-and-date releases, or something very close, for nearly two years at this point. People find out something's not on streaming/VOD right away and they'll just wait. Reviews, promo, subject matter: it doesn't matter, you're making $4-8m opening weekend. It's looking like House of Gucci will do slightly better but still nothing like what it could have made in 2019.

 

All the studios want to promote their streaming services, and if they care about the theatrical experience at all, it's for the blockbuster-type movies. It's wild how In the Heights is practically a high-water mark for an awards contender opening weekend in 2021, when it was written off as a flop at the time.

 

As for King Richard, even in the before times, tennis was never the most popular sports movie genre. As a huge fan of the sport, I have to concede that tennis has been kind of a box office disaster, historically. KR might have been a bright spot before, alas...

Edited November 21, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

Just now, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

It's wild how In the Heights is practically a high-water mark for an awards contender opening weekend in 2021, when it was written off as a flop at the time.

I feel like we all owe that movie an apology for really overrating its failure back when we didn't know that anything that was geared towards the non-IP audience was bound to make little. With only a handful of 2021 releases remaining that are locked to make more than it, it's likely to finish among the top 45 movies of the year. 

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Your $160-200m international gross guess will be tough with a $16m start from 31 territories with more than a third coming from a 4 day UK weekend:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

$16M overseas for Ghostbusters seems rather rough, no? Especially when that's probably most of the markets it will be opening in. International audiences just aren't ever going to be there for this property, I guess.

 

59 minutes ago, grim22 said:

It's like Star Trek to an extent. The fans are Superfans but there's not enough of them OS.

 

55 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Ghostbusters has always had very low international appeal - practically non-existent in countries around the world where English isn't the main language. 

 

55 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Yeah those overseas numbers don’t look great for GBA, might be best to turn this into a streaming franchise 

 

54 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Actually seems like OKAY start, better than last one. UK may be able to do $20M. 

 

Super Quote!

 

$16m looks good and I bet it's going to be adjusted upwards when the actuals come in. Most of the markets are still coming and although UK is the single most important comparing to G2016 most of the biggest draws are still coming such as Japan (though expecting to underperform there compared to G2016), Australia, Russia, South Korea, France, and Spain.

 

European and some other countries by default will have longer OW multiplier for this than in the States.

 

So yes, still seeing the $160m-200m OS in the works but probably Tuesday wiser once we see the actuals and market-by-market info. Adding domestic, it's on an early trajectory for $300m+ WW.

 

For the upper limits at OS, I think Sony will carefully look the numbers and analyze how well they tap now into the Stranger Things demos globally, and other new audiences. The ingredients are there for growth with the adventure/mystery type of approach rather than just offering action comedy.

 

Also, I wouldn't discount the existing brand appeal even if it's in hibernation, just based on G2016 performances. I also don't see it hurting the overall brand much, maybe the new people that G2016 attracted aren't so hot for this, but the existing base is there for the taking.

 

And I think once again, the brand awareness can help to lure people especially for the OW, but how good the movie actually is defines the legs and if new demos warm up for it. Looks like that is in good shape for Ghostbusters Afterlife.

 

Sony will also add 20-30% to the BO it gathers to compare it with pre- & post-pandemic numbers. I really hope Europe isn't diving into a lockdown again.

Edited November 21, 2021 by von Kenni

[Krissykins]

 

35 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Here in Portugal you will need to show a negative test and vaccination proof. It is madness. Numbers will tank.

There’s talk of this being introduced here in Scotland too, vaccine pass for cinema entry. Possibly on 7th December. 
 

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I feel like we all owe that movie an apology for really overrating its failure back when we didn't know that anything that was geared towards the non-IP audience was bound to make little. With only a handful of 2021 releases remaining that are locked to make more than it, it's likely to finish among the top 45 movies of the year. 

For sure. I thought it was miles better than Tick Tick Boom, too.
 

12 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

$16m looks good and I bet it's going to be adjusted upwards when the actuals come in. Most of the markets are still coming and although UK is the single most important comparing to G2016 most of the biggest draws are still coming such as Japan (though expecting to underperform there compared to G2016), Australia, Russia, South Korea, France, and Spain.

 

European and some other countries by default will have longer OW multiplier for this than in the States.

 

So yes, still seeing the $160m-200m OS in the works but probably Tuesday wiser once we see the actuals and market-by-market info. Adding domestic, it's on an early trajectory for $300m+ WW.

 

$160-200m seems unlikely from a $16m opening. It also doesn’t have “most” markets left. We’ll have to wait a while to see though, as it’s still opening in places late January. But yeh, the $16m isn’t good, as the majority of users here have already stated. 

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$160-200m seems unlikely from a $16m opening. It also doesn’t have “most” markets left. We’ll have to wait a while to see though, as it’s still opening in places late January. But yeh, the $16m isn’t good, as the majority of users here have already stated. 

G2016 was released in 67 markets so assuming GA is released in the same markets 36 still to go. Also out of those top 10 grossing markets OS GA hasn't opened in 6 of them. From the markets it has opened in it has had mostly good to great performances compared to G2016 that grossed $100m OS. Without knowing where that $16m exactly comes from but knowing UK, Germany, Italy, Mexico, it's looking good and if the legs are better OS too as in the US, it's a good start. And I'm pretty sure that that $16m is a conservative estimate that will be corrected upwards when the actuals come in from all the smaller markets. If all markets would have opened now, OS weekend might very well been over $40m too. But as you said, we will see and can quote each other then.

 

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

G2016 was released in 67 markets so assuming GA is released in the same markets 36 still to go. Also out of those top 10 grossing markets OS GA hasn't opened in 6 of them. From the markets it has opened in it has had mostly good to great performances compared to G2016 that grossed $100m OS. Without knowing where that $16m exactly comes from but knowing UK, Germany, Italy, Mexico, it's looking good and if the legs are better OS too as in the US, it's a good start. And I'm pretty sure that that $16m is a conservative estimate that will be corrected upwards when the actuals come in from all the smaller markets. If all markets would have opened now, OS weekend might very well been over $40m too. But as you said, we will see and can quote each other then.

 

I’m probably getting nowhere but it opened under the 2016 film in Mexico, it’s way down on the 2016 film in Germany too.  UK is hard to compare because we don’t know what the 3 day total was, it opened wide on Thursday so the $5.8m is a 4 day number. Plus, y’know inflation and exchange rates. 
 

We’ll see what happens. 

[filmlover]

According to Deadline 33% of Ghostbusters' numbers came from IMAX/PLF with $3.7M coming from IMAX. It's losing PLFs to (or in some cases splitting showtimes with) Encanto at most locations starting Wednesday so that'll sting a bit (even with the holiday weekend cushioning the drop), though it looks like IMAX should be fine since there isn't another major Hollywood release in the format until Spider-Man.

[grim22]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

According to Deadline 33% of Ghostbusters' numbers came from IMAX/PLF with $3.7M coming from IMAX. It's losing PLFs to (or in some cases splitting showtimes with) Encanto at most locations starting Wednesday so that'll sting a bit (even with the holiday weekend cushioning the drop), though it looks like IMAX should be fine since there isn't another major Hollywood release in the format until Spider-Man.

Aren't Dune and West Side Story getting IMAX releases on Dec 3 and 10?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Aren't Dune and West Side Story getting IMAX releases on Dec 3 and 10?

Don't know about Dune being reissued in IMAX but West Side Story, unless it gets an announcement at the 11th hour, isn't being released in the format (it is taking over all PLFs that weekend though).

Edited November 21, 2021 by filmlover

[titanic2187]

Seem like V2 got some NWH boost. It has softer drop than other holdovers.  

[robertman2]

Iirc it's a Sword Art Online movie getting them on the 3rd, not Dune

[Ghost Mountain]

At the theatre I work at in Winnipeg, Canada, the Saturday for Ghostbusters was very busy. It was our second biggest day so far since covid. The biggest was in August with Paw Patrol's opening Saturday and Free Guy's second Saturday (which actually did better than its opening Saturday). That was also one of two weekends without covid restrictions so that could explain why it did better than all of September-November.

Edited November 21, 2021 by Ghost Mountain

[Krissykins]

West Side Story just had a huge TV spot during the Adele special here in the UK. 
 

It just doesn’t look as good as it should.

[John Marston]

it's fun to go and look at the box office grosses of years past. In 1981 for instance the second highest grossing film of the year was On Golden Pond. A movie about an old couple starring Henry Fonda and Katherine Hepburn

 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/1981/?grossesOption=totalGrosses

[fmpro]

3 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Ghostbusters has always had very low international appeal - practically non-existent in countries around the world where English isn't the main language. 

Not 100% true. I live in Denmark and Ghostbusters are Iconic here. And have been for many years. The first two are often shown on national tv and everyone over 30 knows the GB song. 
Why its doing poorly i have no answer too

[Coldbird]

In germany the franchise is known but not popular. Many know who the ghostbusters are, from countless references of american media (Simpsons, family guy...), reruns on TV, the cartoon which run weekends and so on. But thats it, like a bunch of franchises we know about it because its popular in the US.

 

[AJG]

24 minutes ago, John Marston said:

it's fun to go and look at the box office grosses of years past. In 1981 for instance the second highest grossing film of the year was On Golden Pond. A movie about an old couple starring Henry Fonda and Katherine Hepburn

 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/1981/?grossesOption=totalGrosses

 

Wow. I've only seen 2 of the top 10. I haven't even heard of 4 of them.