charlie Jatinder Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 13 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said: Showerthought — NWH probably sold more $$ on Th than WSS, right? Almost 4x. In fact FRI most likely be even for two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: WSS try $4.1M incl previews Encanto 2.2 Dear Evan Hansen had a 3.2m total opening day including previews (800k). Respect had 3.6m opening day with 600k previews. 8.8m So... 9-10m OW? Oof. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 10 hours ago, AJG said: I’ve said this for years; it’s time for studios to flat out lie Now that's a $50M+ opener. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, Flopped said: Thanks. Do you have HOG? Probably $1.25M. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: WSS try $4.1M incl previews 10.5ish Encanto 2.2 9.5ish (outside chance of upset, true FSS looks real close) 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: Probably $1.25M. 4.1ish Numbers I really care about this week are resident evil, Eternals, V2, and nttd 😂 Edited December 11, 2021 by Product Driven Legion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: Almost 4x. In fact FRI most likely be even for two. Seems high? NWH is doing like 2-3% daily growth and base is still like 75Mish so should be ballpark 2-2.5M dailies right? Maybe can win Sun if it accelerates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said: Seems high? NWH is doing like 2-3% daily growth and base is still like 75Mish so should be ballpark 2-2.5M dailies right? Maybe can win Sun if it accelerates. 2-3% is for THU. FRI and SAT be higher in %. In absolute all 3 days would be similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: 2-3% is for THU. FRI and SAT be higher in %. Ah, right. But still looks like 2.5-3M Th and Fri maybe? Lose Sat, likely win Sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 (edited) Lag Edited December 11, 2021 by Product Driven Legion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Some of the musicals in December 2017 - Pitch Perfect 3 - $105M from $20M (5.25x) 2017 - TGS - $174M from $9M (19.3x) 2018 - Mary Poppins - $172M from $23M (7.5x) 2019 - Cats - $27M from $6.6M (4.1x) WSS will open $12M+ mostly. This is pre XMAS, the above were all opening XMAS week so there is more holiday time for this to go. I am not a musical head so donno if WOM is good or bad, not an awards head either to know if it will get that boost, but I can see this open $12M and go $150M or may be just bundle around $70M. Either way, just shut this trash talk of dead theaters and all. We are getting $200M opening weekend next week most likely, and then Matrix is looking to open well as well. We had a solid October, MCU failed us in November otherwise things were looking pretty solid there too. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Some of the musicals in December 2017 - Pitch Perfect 3 - $105M from $20M (5.25x) 2017 - TGS - $174M from $9M (19.3x) 2018 - Mary Poppins - $172M from $23M (7.5x) 2019 - Cats - $27M from $6.6M (4.1x) WSS will open $12M+ mostly. This is pre XMAS, the above were all opening XMAS week so there is more holiday time for this to go. I am not a musical head so donno if WOM is good or bad, not an awards head either to know if it will get that boost, but I can see this open $12M and go $150M or may be just bundle around $70M. Either way, just shut this trash talk of dead theaters and all. We are getting $200M opening weekend next week most likely, and then Matrix is looking to open well as well. We had a solid October, MCU failed us in November otherwise things were looking pretty solid there too. Yes to all of this. Moreover, I just dug up my In The Heights v West Side Story Club that I posted from two years ago pre-COVID: On 12/29/2019 at 4:20 PM, Cap said: Let’s Talk Numbers: Reveal hidden contents Even with the Holiday release, historical data is not on West Side Story's side. In the past decade, Spielberg's films have averaged a 98M DOM. Only Lincoln and Ready Player One got over 100M. His two Christmas releases: The Post and War Horse both made 82M and 80M, respectively. Frankly, boys, Hot Take: Spielberg's not what he used to be. Movie Date OW DOM WW Ready Player One March 28, 2018 41.76M 137,690,172 582,890,172 The Post December 22, 2017 526K (LTD) 81,903,458 179,769,457 The BFG June 30, 2016 18.77M 55,483,770 183,288,689 Bridge of Spies October 16, 2015 15.37M 72,313,754 165,478,348 Lincoln November 9, 2012 944,308 (LTD) 182,207,973 275,293,450 War Horse December 25, 2011 7.51M 79,884,879 177,584,879 The Adventures of Tintin October 26, 2011 9.72M 77,591,831 373,993,951 Average: 18.63 (WIDE) 98,153,691 276,899,849 Add this in traditional Musicals: Even Christmas Legs and Disney couldn't stop Mary Poppins Returns from cracking 200M. Disney could only get Into The Woods to 127M, another Holiday Release. The Greatest Showman's 174M was a miracle of legs, legs, legs. Past Decade, Top Ten, Non-Disney, Not Adjusted for Inflation, Musical Grosses MOVIE YEAR DOM WW TOTAL Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again! 2018 $120,634,935 $395,438,126 The Greatest Showman 2017 $174,340,174 $440,973,522 La La Land 2016 $151,101,803 $426,351,163 Into The Woods 2014 $128,002,372 $213,116,401 Annie 2014 $85,911,262 $139,829,625 Black Nativity 2013 $7,018,188 $7,454,184 Les Miserables 2012 $148,809,770 $442,169,052 Rock of Ages 2012 $38,518,613 $61,031,932 Joyful Noise 2012 $30,932,113 $31,157,914 Footloose 2011 $51,802,742 $62,989,834 This will logically put West Side Story in the 90-120M domestic range. Because Clubs are supposed to be BOLD and this is my first, I'm going with: $96,521,600 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 (edited) 49 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Some of the musicals in December 2017 - Pitch Perfect 3 - $105M from $20M (5.25x) 2017 - TGS - $174M from $9M (19.3x) 2018 - Mary Poppins - $172M from $23M (7.5x) 2019 - Cats - $27M from $6.6M (4.1x) WSS will open $12M+ mostly. This is pre XMAS, the above were all opening XMAS week so there is more holiday time for this to go. I am not a musical head so donno if WOM is good or bad, not an awards head either to know if it will get that boost, but I can see this open $12M and go $150M or may be just bundle around $70M. Either way, just shut this trash talk of dead theaters and all. We are getting $200M opening weekend next week most likely, and then Matrix is looking to open well as well. We had a solid October, MCU failed us in November otherwise things were looking pretty solid there too. The argument isn’t that theaters are dead. That’s nonsense. The argument is that non-IPs are still struggling. And theaters can’t survive with this films doing PTA under 1k. And the more the struggle, the more they will lose screens and more its core audience will likely diminish. Spider-Man is MCU. Matrix, another IP. Gucci’s 36m would currently be a disaster otherwise. Free Guy succeeded because while original, it had pop culture Easter eggs and appealed to the young demo who are the ones boosting theaters. Nightmare Alley is probably absolutely bombing next week Edited December 11, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 We have people who personally like to see non IP in theaters, I totally get that. But like, mathematically -- it just is not the case the exhibition needs nonIP to survive. If it literally went to zero a relatively modest % increase in IP movie gross/year would cancel it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 WSS I suspect will go around 45M but I wouldn't be shocked if it legs to like 70 either which would end up kind of fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said: We have people who personally like to see non IP in theaters, I totally get that. But like, mathematically -- it just is not the case the exhibition needs nonIP to survive. If it literally went to zero a relatively modest % increase in IP movie gross/year would cancel it out. It’s deluding the marketplace first of all. You’re losing a solid demographic without a wider selection of films. Secondly, 12-20 theater auditoriums cannot simply play Spider-Man on 9 of them. 2015 alone with Daddy’s Home and Sisters provided a robust 4800k PTA and 4700k PTA during their openings alongside Force Awakens. Plus you’re also not even factoring or taking into consideration arthouse theaters or smaller theaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: Some of the musicals in December 2017 - Pitch Perfect 3 - $105M from $20M (5.25x) 2017 - TGS - $174M from $9M (19.3x) 2018 - Mary Poppins - $172M from $23M (7.5x) 2019 - Cats - $27M from $6.6M (4.1x) WSS will open $12M+ mostly. This is pre XMAS, the above were all opening XMAS week so there is more holiday time for this to go. I am not a musical head so donno if WOM is good or bad, not an awards head either to know if it will get that boost, but I can see this open $12M and go $150M or may be just bundle around $70M. Either way, just shut this trash talk of dead theaters and all. We are getting $200M opening weekend next week most likely, and then Matrix is looking to open well as well. We had a solid October, MCU failed us in November otherwise things were looking pretty solid there too. I’m thinking $60m for WSS, tops. That would still be decent for a musical. Obviously it cost $100m+ though and is being released in covid times. An A Cinemascore plus fatalistic reviews and older audiences can all only help with legs though. Domestic totals of my favourite musical adaptations: The Greatest Showman $174.3m Chicago $171m Les Miserables $148.8m Mamma Mia $144m Mamma Mia 2 $121m Hairspray $118.9m Dreamgirls $104m Moulin Rogue! $57.4m In The Heights $29.9m Cats $27.1m Into The Woods and Mary Poppins Returns did $100m+ too, I just didn’t like them lol. La La Land was obviously a huge hit too, but is an original. Edited December 11, 2021 by Krissykins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Dear Evan Hansen had a 3.2m total opening day including previews (800k). Respect had 3.6m opening day with 600k previews. 8.8m So... 9-10m OW? Oof. One thing I've been wondering, and maybe this isn't mattering, but Disney has been wildly pissing off its fans with its park policies lately (enough to make national morning tv a few weeks back)...I wonder if overall Disney unhappiness (on top of their still happy, but happy to stay home, D+ subscribers) has been reducing their "always go to their movies" base, even just a little. This applies more to Encanto than WSS, although both were heavily marketed under the Disney brand... Edited December 11, 2021 by TwoMisfits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InVy Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: One thing I've been wondering, and maybe this isn't mattering, but Disney has been wildly pissing off its fans with its park policies lately (enough to make national morning tv a few weeks back)...I wonder if overall Disney unhappiness (on top of their still happy, but happy to stay home, D+ subscribers) has been reducing their "always go to their movies" base, even just a little. This applies more to Encanto than WSS, although both were heavily marketed under the Disney brand... or we can just look at average box office of the most popular film of the last several years Moana and super beloved & praised Coco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Encanto will scrape by 100 unless d+ release stops it I guess. Will be interesting to see how much impact there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vale900 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 (edited) 20 hours ago, Valonqar said: Nothing is over until it's over especially during a very lucrative holiday season. I know covid and all that but The Greatest Showman opened with only 8.8M, got mixed reviews (57% is mixed rather than panned) and legged it up to 174M thanks to WOM. Star power didn't open. Musical wasn't known or it was an original IP hence low initial interest. And then WOM happened and the thing couldn't have been stopped. I say we wait before we bury WSS which has more going for it (famous IP, Spielberg, rave reviews, awards season legs). I know that covid is a problem because it keeps audience that may be interested in WSS at home, but judging the whole run on the preview number is an overreaction. That's got modern and radio friendly appealing music to discover. This is going nowhere with the already well know music from 1000 years ago. Edited December 11, 2021 by vale900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
