No Way Home Weekend Thread | #RIP AIW Record | 260M OW DOM | 340M OS | 600M OW WW W/O CHINA

[Danhjpn]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Box Office is fine but man what a flop weekend thread. Won't be surprise if we miss 100 pages for may be 2nd biggest opener of all time.

Hmmmm.....

🤔

Edited December 17, 2021 by Danhjpn

[baumer]

@MikeQoh and by the way I sincerely hope you are right that we don't go back to full lockdown but I'm just getting a bad feeling without quickly our prime minister and our premier are starting to reduce things. But let's not worry about that right now. We're in a thread to celebrate a massive opening and this is great news for moviegoers and movie theaters and that's what makes me really happy.

[infamous5445]

Not sure if NWH will get an A+ Cinemascore, but that % definite recommend from the Deadline article certainly helps if it started out higher than even Endgame

[poweranimals]

People weren't really thinking this would come near Endgame, were they? Also with a 3:00pm start time, I'm not so sure Friday will be as big of an increase as people are expecting. Still though, this will no doubt be a monumental success. With the way things have been this year, I wasn't even sure these numbers were possible.

[Danhjpn]

7 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

Not sure if NWH will get an A+ Cinemascore, but that % definite recommend from the Deadline article certainly helps if it started out higher than even Endgame

I am feeling like beside amazing WOM/ audience reception, it requires luck to have the A+

 

[cannastop]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Box Office is fine but man what a flop weekend thread. Won't be surprise if we miss 100 pages for may be 2nd biggest opener of all time.

yeah COVID really fucked up the traffic to this website.

[Cmasterclay]

Thinking 12/6/5/13/12 for Matrix (47 5 day) and 8/6/6/14/14 for Sing 2 (48 5 day) with a higher total.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Thinking 12/6/5/13/12 for Matrix (47 5 day) and 8/6/6/14/14 for Sing 2 (48 5 day) with a higher total.

I think both could do a 60m-70m ish 6 day opening.

[AJG]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

yeah COVID really fucked up the traffic to this website.

 

For the better. I haven't seen a Snyder Disciple in months.

[Eric is Quiet]

I'm saying this as somebody who doesn't watch TV or sports, so my point is kind of meaningless, but Sing 2 is definitely the movie I've seen the most ads for out in the wild apart from Spidey. The Regal near me has it as their big tie-in with their holiday gift card promos and I've gotten the trailer for it several times over the past month or so (better than The 355/Jackass, getting those trailers constantly were the worst), and the promo spend on TV, albeit on NBC where there's an excuse, is pretty strong. I was even at New York last month, and the FAO Schwarz right next to Rockefeller was bombarded with Sing 2 posters and cutouts of the characters.

 

Along with the really good sales for Philly, if it wasn't for kids and families not heading out to theaters this year, I would probably go for over SLOP 2, but it probably won't be that far behind it.

[Cmasterclay]

I'm bad at multipliers during holidays and the last time we had this same date pattern was 2010 when it was Little Fockers and True Grit, so not very telling. If both Matrix and Sing did, let's say, 10 on Wednesday, what is reasonable for Saturday for them? Both True Grit and Fockers doubled their opening days on Christmas, but can't really use those comps.

[Tokugennumataka]

How's Saturday and Sunday looking like? Good enough for 3rd highest? 

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Previews since 3PM.

The next big movie event will start at 12PM and we'll keep calling previews...

 

Imagine if previews  keep moving further and further earlier til we are back at midnight showings.🤭

[XXR & Friends]

NWH Predictions Through 2nd Weekend (DOM)

Bear Case
50-55-58-45-26-25-22-21-19-39-33 = $393M

Base Case
50-63-68-55-35-34-31-29-26-48-39 = $478M

Bull Case
50-70-77-63-41-40-37-34-31-57-46 = $546M 


Comps Through 2nd Weekend 

Avengers: Endgame = $621.3M
Force Awakens = $540.0M

Avengers: Infinity War = $453.1M

Black Panther = $403.6M
Jurassic World = $402.8M
The Avengers = $373.0M 
The Last Jedi = $368.2M
The Rise of Skywalker = $362.2M

 

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by GoblinXXR

[Joyous Legion]

Wow, just saw the definite recommend. Have we EVER seen higher? A+ foregone at this point, only massive omicron concern can stop the avatar club.

[Joyous Legion]

6 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

Bull Case
50-70-77-63-41-40-37-33-37-54-44 = $546M 

I’ve got a lot to catch up on but this is a puny bull case ow

[Tokugennumataka]

7 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

NWH Predictions Through 2nd Weekend (DOM)

Bear Case
50-55-58-45-26-25-22-19-24-38-33 = $395M

Base Case
50-63-68-55-35-34-31-26-31-46-39 = $478M

Bull Case
50-70-77-63-41-40-37-33-37-54-44 = $546M 


Comps Through 2nd Weekend 

Avengers: Endgame = $621.3M
Force Awakens = $540.0M

Avengers: Infinity War = $453.1M

Black Panther = $403.6M
Jurassic World = $402.8M
The Avengers = $373.0M 
The Last Jedi = $368.2M
The Rise of Skywalker = $362.2M

 

 

Why is Friday higher than Thursday as it falls on 24th? Shouldn't it be basically flat or see a decrease? 

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

Bear Case
50-55-58-45-26-25-22-19-24-38-33 = $395M

count me as a bear. 👀

[Tokugennumataka]

4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Wow, just saw the definite recommend. Have we EVER seen higher? A+ foregone at this point, only massive omicron concern can stop the avatar club.

BP was higher at 91%

[Eric is Quiet]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm bad at multipliers during holidays and the last time we had this same date pattern was 2010 when it was Little Fockers and True Grit, so not very telling. If both Matrix and Sing did, let's say, 10 on Wednesday, what is reasonable for Saturday for them? Both True Grit and Fockers doubled their opening days on Christmas, but can't really use those comps.

For the record, this is very grain of salt and based on my own weird extrapolations:

 

Tron Legacy's 25th was a 36% jump from the 22nd. Using that would mean 10M to 13.6M. Matrix will have a huge fan rush and likely have mixed WOM/repeat viewing on Max, so I feel that sounds about right? Maybe a little higher near 14M? Could also just be that Matrix is just frontloaded due to reception and HBO Max and it has a poor Christmas Day number.

 

Sing 2 though could probably go from 10M to 15-17M or something