The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Dragoncaine]

Wow, those are some really solid jumps all around today. This is probably the most excited I've ever been for a review embargo to drop for critical and commercial reasons

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-3 days
2/26/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	182	183	47,524	56,898	83.52%
ATP
$23.35

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-4 days
2/26/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	28,263	39,928	70.78%
ATP
$19.32

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	9	15	0	6	80
Seats Added	1,110	1,757	0	1,566	9,387
Seats Sold	5,992	6,998	4,203	4,152	4,958
2/26/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,382	151,992	935,301	16.25%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	57	180	347
ATP
$16.83

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday Only:

.245x NWH T-5

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.282x NWH T-5

 

All Previews:

.368x NWH T-5

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.464x NWH T-5

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	297	31388	36790	5402	14.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

220

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	132.73		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		18.35m
NTTD	378.56		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		23.47m
Dune	473.44		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		24.14m
ET	196.44		97	2750		0/101	13218/15968	17.22%		18.66m
NWH	28.09		559	19233		0/325	19887/39120	49.16%		14.04m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        688/815     [84.42% sold]  [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1054/1301  [79.89% sold]   [+28 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3660/34674  [10.56% sold] [+194 tickets]

---

Regal:  1397/11645  [12.00% sold] [+85 tickets]

Matinee: 251/4893   [5.13% | 4.65% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Couple of notes Up Front.  Looks like I accidentally credited one theater with about 20 extra tickets of sales thanks to being a little sloppy on my search terms, and this has now been corrected. I'm not going to go back and try to figure out the "real" totals from the last couple of days as it'd be a headache to try and fix as it was an incremental creep of rolling errors.  The important thing is, the total is correct tonight.

 

More importantly, I wasn't able to get any info at all from one theater tonight (even waited an extra 30 minutes) so keep that in mind.  Not one of the busier theaters in the region, but still can put up a small amount of daily sales.

 

LATE EDIT:::: Was able to get the updated numbers from that theater and have now adjusted all of the numbers in this post.  Doesn't materially change the analysis below (11 more tickets were added to the nightly total)

 

All told, the Eternals comp increased a tiny bit and the Black Widow comp fell a small amount.  Such as it goes in Sacramento while I still wait for takeoff.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	297	31137	36790	5653	15.37%

 

Total Capped Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	251

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	130.86		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		18.09m
NTTD	365.65		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		22.67m
Dune	469.52		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		23.95m
ET	198.42		99	2849		0/101	13119/15968	17.84%		18.85m
NWH	28.63		515	19748		0/325	19748/39120	50.48%		14.31m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        701/815     [86.01% sold]   [+13 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1061/1301  [81.55% sold]     [+7 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3891/34674  [11.22% sold] [+231 tickets]

---

Regal:  1472/11645  [12.64% sold] [+75 tickets]

Matinee: 268/4893   [5.48% | 4.74% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

A decent (and fairly rare) Saturday bump locally.  WOM from folks breaking/bending social embargo trickling out?  If so, a good omen for tomorrow, perhaps.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Porthos

[El Gato]

14 hours ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

Running numbers and extrapolating the data from this thread, I'm 99% sure The Batman OW will fall between $106M and $147M. If I had to bet my house on it today, I'd go with $128M.

That would be disappointing to me. If The Batman opens to that range and doesn’t make 1B (same with Aquaman, and Flash) and Black Adam doesn’t at least make 800M then DC should just call it quits after 2023 and regroup in a couple years… maybe then they’ll be able to compete with Universal and Disney franchises! 
 

sucks to be a DC fan sometimes… anyway can’t wait for next Saturday, got my ticket already 

[Liiviig 1998]

49 minutes ago, El Gato said:

That would be disappointing to me. If The Batman opens to that range and doesn’t make 1B (same with Aquaman, and Flash) and Black Adam doesn’t at least make 800M then DC should just call it quits after 2023 and regroup in a couple years… maybe then they’ll be able to compete with Universal and Disney franchises! 
 

sucks to be a DC fan sometimes… anyway can’t wait for next Saturday, got my ticket already 

Batman don't need 1bn to be considered a rousing success . Besides

106-147m OW doesn't exactly scream  1 Bn

 

know alot of predictions had batman at 1bn but tracking hasn't been that spectacular to make a 1bn a done deal

 

Black Adam 800m !!! .we haven't even seen a proper trailer to even judge if it's prospects are that high .

It's a wild card for sure 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[Joyous Legion]

3 hours ago, ZackM said:

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.282x NWH T-5

Is this weighted vs NWH final atp or t-5 atp?

[El Gato]

23 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Batman don't need 1bn to be considered a rousing success . Besides

106-147m OW doesn't exactly scream  1 Bn

 

know alot of predictions had batman at 1bn but tracking hasn't been that spectacular to make a 1bn a done deal

 

Black Adam 800m !!! .we haven't even seen a proper trailer to even judge if it's prospects are that high .

It's a wild card for sure 

 

 

I basing it on my own expectations of what level DC should be performing at! The brand can’t handle even more flops/under performances (ie MOS, JL, TSS, BOP, Shazam). If those films get under those numbers then it’ll be incredibly disappointing and laughable, especially considering franchises like Marvel, Star Wars, F&F, Bond, Jurassic World and Despicable Me can hit those numbers easily! 
 

I’ll be disappointed with under 1B for Batman, Flash and Aquaman… I’ll be more lenient with Black Adam since he’s a new character but then again it stars The Rock and is action packed so…

[Juby]

1 hour ago, El Gato said:

That would be disappointing to me. If The Batman opens to that range and doesn’t make 1B (same with Aquaman, and Flash) and Black Adam doesn’t at least make 800M then DC should just call it quits after 2023 and regroup in a couple years… maybe then they’ll be able to compete with Universal and Disney franchises! 

 

🤦‍♂️

 

The last 3 DC films were box office flops (BoP, WW84, TSS). Warner Bros. will be a huge winner if all of their four films in 2022 will do +$500m ww. Demanding $1bn from The Flash and $800m from Black Adam is ridiculous.

 

The Batman is headin' for $115m opening weekend. That would be great(!) start. With almost empty March and April $300m domestic shouldn't be a problem.

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Juby

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, El Gato said:

I basing it on my own expectations of what level DC should be performing at! The brand can’t handle even more flops/under performances (ie MOS, JL, TSS, BOP, Shazam). If those films get under those numbers then it’ll be incredibly disappointing and laughable, especially considering franchises like Marvel, Star Wars, F&F, Bond, Jurassic World and Despicable Me can hit those numbers easily! 
 

I’ll be disappointed with under 1B for Batman, Flash and Aquaman… I’ll be more lenient with Black Adam since he’s a new character but then again it stars The Rock and is action packed so…

 

The Batman doing, oh say, $700m WW (random number pulled out of my ass) is in no way a flop or an under performance.

 

ETA:  I see @Juby posted something similar to me and pegged a $500m WW number.  Can't argue with that in the slightest.

 

I have no idea what a "flop" or "underperformance" for The Batman would be, mind, but once again just using that Pulled Out Of My Ass Number, I sure as hell know $700m WW wouldn't be it.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Porthos

[21C]

I think it'd be totally fair to call 700 million WW for The Batman a slight underperformance seeing how Joker made a billion; if there wasn't a pandemic I'd be confident on calling that an underperformance.

R-Rated, no action sequences, low budget Joker making a billion is not an elephant in the room I'm willing to ignore at all. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by 21C

[Joyous Legion]

Judging based on expectations is always a delicate and tricky matter, but I think it would be pretty understandable to call a 125M opening, a 350 total, or a 700 WW an underperformance. Those would all be very poorly ranked compared to most past Batman movies, which is a decently populous reference class. Such nums are fine for weaker franchises/nonfranchise fare, fine for top tiers franchises in the aughts/early 10s maybe, and fine (more than fine, actually) for a pandemic era release. But covid is really wound down at this point, so...

 

 

Edit:Joker comparisons make 0 sense though imo. That movie is an outlier and exception in an extreme sense, not really a Batman movie or an action superhero movie at all. Instead I would look at Bvs, Nolan, and pre Nolan Batman solos -- but especially first entries. Batman 2 will do gangbusters as long as Batman 1 delivers the quality.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Derby Legion

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:

Judging based on expectations is always a delicate and tricky matter, but I think it would be pretty understandable to call a 125M opening, a 350 total, or a 700 WW an underperformance. Those would all be very poorly ranked compared to most past Batman movies, which is a decently populous reference class. Such nums are fine for weaker franchises/nonfranchise fare, fine for top tiers franchises in the aughts/early 10s maybe, and fine (more than fine, actually) for a pandemic era release. But covid is really wound down at this point, so...

 

Ftr I originally was gonna type $800m but lowered it to $700m coz I haven't paid that much attention to just how much the 'rona is currently affecting some international markets.

 

Decided to give myself an $100m hedge as it were.

[Juby]

54 minutes ago, 21C said:

I think it'd be totally fair to call 700 million WW for The Batman a slight underperformance

 

Nope.

 

38 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:

I think it would be pretty understandable to call a 125M opening, a 350 total, or a 700 WW an underperformance.

 

Except No Way Home there was like zero (ZERO!!) films in the last two years that open +$100m and have +$230m domestic, and only 2 Hollywood films with +$700m ww. How in the hell making 125/350/700 would be underperdomance? Those numbers would be awesome for the new Batman reboot.

[Joyous Legion]

16 minutes ago, Juby said:

Except No Way Home there was like zero (ZERO!!) films in the last two years that open +$100m and have +$230m domestic, and only 2 Hollywood films with +$700m ww. How in the hell making 125/350/700 would be underperdomance? Those numbers would be awesome for the new Batman reboot.

Who cares? You are aware that this movie isn't coming out in 2020/2021, right? It's coming out now. 

[Liiviig 1998]

700m would be a fine enough number but I feel this should atleast get to 800m

Me thinking

350-405/500m+ (125-145m OW)

 

 

[El Gato]

2 hours ago, Juby said:

 

🤦‍♂️

 

The last 3 DC films were box office flops (BoP, WW84, TSS). Warner Bros. will be a huge winner if all of their four films in 2022 will do +$500m ww. Demanding $1bn from The Flash and $800m from Black Adam is ridiculous.

 

The Batman is headin' for $115m opening weekend. That would be great(!) start. With almost empty March and April $300m domestic shouldn't be a problem.

 

 
500M is incredibly disappointing for all those films! Especially for Aquaman and Batman having seen the potential those characters have. 700M would be weak as well and would reinforce DC not being a big franchise anymore. Batman is their biggest character, so I expect a billion! Likewise for Aquaman since the first hit that mark!

 

Flash is getting his first film that’s bringing back the OG Batman and is essentially JL 1.5… if should at least perform like WW or else that would be disappointing. DC can’t take anymore flops/underperformances! The brand needs the win

[Krissykins]

44 minutes ago, El Gato said:

 
500M is incredibly disappointing for all those films! Especially for Aquaman and Batman having seen the potential those characters have. 700M would be weak as well and would reinforce DC not being a big franchise anymore. Batman is their biggest character, so I expect a billion! Likewise for Aquaman since the first hit that mark!

 

Flash is getting his first film that’s bringing back the OG Batman and is essentially JL 1.5… if should at least perform like WW or else that would be disappointing. DC can’t take anymore flops/underperformances! The brand needs the win

This isn’t the right thread for this but: 

 

$500m wouldn’t have been “incredibly disappinting” for Birds of Prey with its R rating and $80m budget. 

 

With your logic, I’ll expect nothing less than $1.2b for Captain Marvel 2 and nothing less than $1.4b for Black Panther 2. 

[XXR & Friends]

2 hours ago, Juby said:

 

Nope.

 

 

Except No Way Home there was like zero (ZERO!!) films in the last two years that open +$100m and have +$230m domestic, and only 2 Hollywood films with +$700m ww. How in the hell making 125/350/700 would be underperdomance? Those numbers would be awesome for the new Batman reboot.

 

2 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

Who cares? You are aware that this movie isn't coming out in 2020/2021, right? It's coming out now. 

 

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

700m would be a fine enough number but I feel this should atleast get to 800m

Me thinking

350-405/500m+ (125-145m OW)

 

 

 

The Batman > BVS worldwide is my target. Below that and I'd be fairly disappointed, given current ticket prices. 

 

 

43 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

With your logic, I’ll expect nothing less than $1.2b for Captain Marvel 2 and nothing less than $1.4b for Black Panther 2. 

 

Well, yea....  

 

[cax16]

5 hours ago, El Gato said:

That would be disappointing to me. If The Batman opens to that range and doesn’t make 1B (same with Aquaman, and Flash) and Black Adam doesn’t at least make 800M then DC should just call it quits after 2023 and regroup in a couple years… maybe then they’ll be able to compete with Universal and Disney franchises! 
 

sucks to be a DC fan sometimes… anyway can’t wait for next Saturday, got my ticket already 

Probably gonna be a pretty tough year for you buddy, sorry ahead of time lol. 

 

[filmlover]

I always thought $120-130M would've been an exceptional opening for this considering this is the third reboot for the character and the movie appearing to be perhaps stylistically similar to the Nolan trilogy (which is almost certain to always be the definitive version of the character), the most recent of which is still less than a decade old. Add in stuff like Lego Batman and the Batman movie is hardly a novelty in 2022. That said, "origin" movies typically end up much less frontloaded than sequels, so if all goes well for this movie, it should be in for a nice long run (especially with what little competition it faces) and any overperformance should come with the sequel(s).