The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZeeSoh]

29 minutes ago, DAJK said:

No one was talking about it in a non-box office forecasting context. Was literally just commenting on BOPro’s tracking for it, which I think is fair game.

 

22 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

There were posts here that were just talking about the quality of the franchise away from the BOPro postings, but one of the staff members moved those posts into the Secrets of Dumbledore thread. Sorry for the confusion. In this context, feel free to do so

There were quite a few posts that had nothing to do with tracking or forecast. I moved them to the FB thread. The posts that did talk about tracking FB and its OW have been left off here as you can see above. 
 

I moved the posts and was about to make a post asking people to take the conversation to the appropriate thread but Eric beat me to the punch. 

[Jak Ryan Drake Campbell]

What may help Fantastic Beasts 3 hold its own and perform is the lack of competition, Sonic will enter its second weekend and Doctor Strange is 3 weeks away. The IMAX offering will be exclusively for Secrets Of Dumbledore.

[Shawn Robbins]

8 hours ago, Villain Legion said:

Yeah, I don’t even think it’s guaranteed to hit the low end. 

I agree. 🤣

[Flopped]

Are we thinking Lost City could hit 30M? 

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Are we thinking Lost City could hit 30M? 

Could? Sure. I’ve got a 13x IM penciled in, so from current comps I’d go for like 22-30? 

[AJG]

10 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Between Rowling and the Depp fans outraged a lot of wind has been taken out of the sails for Harry Potter.

 I’m pretty sure the new Potter video game was directed by an Alt-Right YouTube troll until they discovered it last year. Its a weird time for this franchise indeed.

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

There were quite a few posts that had nothing to do with tracking or forecast. I moved them to the FB thread. The posts that did talk about tracking FB and its OW have been left off here as you can see above. 
 

I moved the posts and was about to make a post asking people to take the conversation to the appropriate thread but Eric beat me to the punch. 

That’s fair, sorry about the confusion, I didn’t see the posts that were moved, so I assumed that the moderation was about the posts that were still here

[Dragoncaine]

X is such a hilarious, uncomfortable horror throwback. Such a blast. I hope it overperforms from the estimates

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Flopped said:

Are we thinking Lost City could hit 30M? 

I think it can. The marketplace is wide open for a well-reviewed star-driven comedy to surprise.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Fandango Saturday screening for Lost City picked up and has 41 seats for tomorrow. $12.50 a ticket

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/17/2022 at 11:56 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	213	12340	1.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

2.367x of Jungle Cruise T-7 (6.39M)

2.448x of Free Guy T-7 (5.39M)
0.553x of Uncharted T-7 (2.05M)

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	288	12715	2.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 75

 

Comp

2.504x of Jungle Cruise T-6 (6.76M)

2.909x of Free Guy T-6 (6.4M)

0.713x of Uncharted T-6 (2.64M)

 

Of the 75 seats sold, 65 of them were sold for the Fandango Early Showings tomorrow. I don't know how good or bad that is, but it will all get rolled in together anyways, so... 🤷‍♂️

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/18/2022 at 12:06 AM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	575	14751	3.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 44

 

Comp

0.648x of Shang-Chi T-14 (5.7M)

0.908x of Venom 2 T-14 (10.54M)

0.386x of Eternals (3.67M)

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	615	14751	4.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Comp

0.653x of Shang-Chi T-13 (5.75M)

0.911x of Venom 2 T-13 (10.57M)

0.394x of Eternals T-13 (3.74M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/18/2022 at 12:22 AM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	316	10201	3.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

1.050x of Venom 2 T-21 (12.18M)

0.214x of Sing 2 w/ Early Access T-21 (2.08M)

4.716x of Sing 2 WITHOUT Early Access T-21 (38.37M)

 

Adjusted Comp

8.929x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-21 (26.79M)

 

Decided to give Venom 2 a try, since that was a big sequel that had huge walkup business, and Sonic could fit the bill (Or not. Who knows!) Either way, it too should crash down to earth as the days go on.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	367	10201	3.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

1.049x of Venom 2 T-20 (12.16M)

0.248x of Sing 2 w/ Early Access T-20 (2.42M)

5.561x of Sing 2 WITHOUT Early Access (45.23M)

 

Adjusted Comp

7.308x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-20 (21.92M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	127	18147	18775	628	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

81

 

T-14 Comps 

	%		Sold  T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	64.94		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		5847	10.74%		5.71m
LTBC	71.53		85	878		0/153	24915/25793	3.40%		7712	8.14%		8.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Let There Be Carnage's tickets have been on sale for five more days than Morbius' tickets have been on sale.

 

 

Regal:     121/4509  [2.68% sold] [+19 tickets]

Matinee:   42/1529  [2.75% | 6.69% of all tickets sold]

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	127	18147	18775	628	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

63

 

T-13 Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	64.94		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		5847	11.82%		5.72m
LTBC	71.24		92	970		0/155	24891/25861	3.75%		7712	8.96%		8.26m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Let There Be Carnage's tickets have been on sale for five more days than Morbius' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal:     138/4509  [3.06% sold]
Matinee:    54/1529  [3.53% | 7.81% of all tickets sold]

Edited March 19, 2022 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-13	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	68	11,325	164	18	1.45%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,992	172	19	1.91%
		Raleigh	8	33	4,531	166	11	3.66%
	Morbius Total		20	149	24,848	502	48	2.02%
T-19	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	31	2	3.29%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	40	0	19.23%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	13	0	4.98%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	84	2	5.95%
T-20	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	37	5,419	66	5	1.22%
		Phoenix	6	19	3,305	81	15	2.45%
		Raleigh	7	23	3,192	73	6	2.29%
	Sonic Total		19	79	11,916	220	26	1.85%
T-6	Lost City	Jacksonville	6	21	3,284	67	-1	2.04%
		Phoenix	6	18	2,970	71	3	2.39%
		Raleigh	8	19	2,401	65	1	2.71%
	Lost City Total		20	58	8,655	203	3	2.35%

 

Lost City T-6 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.18x (3.19m)

 - Uncharted - 0.38x (1.41m)

 - Free Guy - 1x (2.2m)

 

Morbius T-13 comps

 - Eternals - (Missed)

 - SC - .706x (6.21m)

 - Venom 2 - .942x (10.93m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.88x (7.71m)

 

Didn't track any other kids movies nearly this far out so no comps yet for Sonic.

 

Other Tracking

Lost City (3/19 EA) - 56

Lost City (3/22 EA) - 10

Lost City (3/23 EA) - 7

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-12	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	68	11,325	186	22	1.64%
		Phoenix	6	48	8,992	186	14	2.07%
		Raleigh	8	33	4,531	181	15	3.99%
	Morbius Total		20	149	24,848	553	51	2.23%
T-18	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	34	3	3.61%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	41	1	19.71%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	13	0	4.98%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	88	4	6.24%
T-5	Lost City	Jacksonville	6	21	3,284	65	-2	1.98%
		Phoenix	6	18	2,970	79	8	2.66%
		Raleigh	8	19	2,401	69	4	2.87%
	Lost City Total		20	58	8,655	213	10	2.46%

 

Lost City T-5 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.19x (3.21m)

 - Uncharted - (Missed)

 - Free Guy - .89x (1.97m)

 

Morbius T-12 comps

 - Eternals - (Missed)

 - SC - .729x (6.41m)

 - Venom 2 - .936x (10.85m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.98x (8.1m)

 

Other Tracking

Lost City (3/19 EA) - 87

Lost City (3/22 EA) - 31

Lost City (3/23 EA) - 14

 

*Didn't have time to pull Sonic previews today*

Edited March 19, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex

[Old Spice]

Lost City sales for preview night are still pretty tepid in Salt Lake (six tickets sold thus far at the theater I track), but tonight's Fandango screenings are doing extremely well. At the three large PLFs I checked, two are at 90%+ and the third is over 80%.

 

Hopefully WOM will generate some good momentum as we head into next week. It looks like a fun ride.

[XXR & Friends]

On 3/17/2022 at 6:07 PM, KnucklesXXR said:

 

Jujutsu Kaisen 0

True Friday Estimate: $5.5-6.5M

True Friday Reported: $5.75M 
Opening Weekend Estimate: $16-19M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

X

True Friday Estimate: $1-1.2M

True Friday Reported: $1.34M 
Opening Weekend Estimate: $3.2-3.8M

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The Outfit

True Friday Estimate: $425-500K

Full Friday Reported: $530K
Opening Weekend Estimate: $1.4-1.6M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Umma

True Friday Estimate: $275-325K

Full Friday Reported: $340K 
Opening Weekend Estimate: $850-950K

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Alice

True Friday Estimate: $70-90K

True Friday Reported: N / A
Opening Weekend Estimate: $275-325K

 

 

Didn't do too bad on the reported numbers so far. Even without a bevy of usable comps, at least my head is in the right space. 

Edited March 19, 2022 by KnucklesXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

[AdrianL]

For some reason only 3 theaters in my city are doing Lost City previews tonight... all are pretty full, will be going tonight.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Deadline is saying 20-30 for Lost City next week