The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

In fairness to Charlie, he's younger and Top Gun wasn't exactly a big thing internationally in the 80's, but in the United States it's legit mainstream nostalgia.  Americans have also always been fascinated with military jets and pilots in general.  

 

 

 

 

 

Not an excuse 

[charlie Jatinder]

Bad Guys Harkins California and Phoenix 4

 

California ~ 500/2445 on 12 shows (442 actuals, missed one show)

Phoenix 4 - 374/1862 on 13 shows

 

Total - 874

Very strong in 3 best performing locs Cerritos, Mountain Grove and Estrella.

Comps
22% of Sonic 2 Admits - $1.13M (Adjusted for ATP ~$975K)

27% of Paw Patrol - $1.21M

 

I guess $900K feels good since it was not that great in smaller locs. $18M I guess.

[Porthos]

On 4/20/2022 at 11:51 PM, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	351	32227	42436	10209	24.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

182

 

T-15 Comps - TECHNICALLY BETTER THAN NOTHING EDITION

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	66.87		628	15268		0/298	21158/36426	41.92%		28183	36.22%		33.43m
Batsy:	260.23		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	86.83%		56.21m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	111.02%	15.34
SC:	5847	174.60%	15.37
LTBC:	7712	132.38%	15.36
ET:	6409	159.29%	15.13
NWH:	28183	36.22%	18.11
Batsy:	11757	86.83%	18.76

 

Regal:     2258/11027  [20.48% sold]
Matinee:    618/4632  [13.34% | 6.05% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	351	32037	42436	10399	24.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

190

 

T-14 Comps - TECHNICALLY BETTER THAN NOTHING EDITION

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	65.90		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	36.90%		32.95m
Batsy:	254.44		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	88.45%		54.96m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	113.08%	15.63
SC:	5847	177.85%	15.65
LTBC:	7712	134.84%	15.64
ET:	6409	162.26%	15.41
NWH:	28183	36.90%	18.45
Batsy:	11757	88.45%	19.11

 

Regal:     2279/11027  [20.67% sold]
Matinee:    625/4632  [13.49% | 6.01% of all tickets sold]

[Joyous Legion]

Charlie has two excuses for thinking TG2 will do poorly domestically, young+international.   
 

I only have one excuse 

[charlie Jatinder]

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent Harkins California and Phoenix 4

 

California - 235 on 9 shows

Phoenix 4 - 263 on 13 shows

 

Total - 498

Comps
0.31x of Lost City - $0.66M

 

Not that great but may be this do better in Alpha. So hoping for $750K ish.

250
750
3000
4000
2700 // $10.7M

Hopefully its around $12M ish.

[Porthos]

Guess what I just discovered, everybody!

 

Top Gun: Maverick is having Tuesday sneaks on May 24th.

 

Yay.

 

(either that or Century Arden is being extra naughty with a TG:M showing at 7pm on the 24th)

 

@katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq @Eric is a furry

Edited April 22, 2022 by Porthos

[Maggie]

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Charlie has two excuses for thinking TG2 will do poorly domestically, young+international.   
 

I only have one excuse 

?

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	351	32037	42436	10399	24.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

190

 

T-14 Comps - TECHNICALLY BETTER THAN NOTHING EDITION

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	65.90		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	36.90%		32.95m
Batsy:	254.44		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	88.45%		54.96m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	113.08%	15.63
SC:	5847	177.85%	15.65
LTBC:	7712	134.84%	15.64
ET:	6409	162.26%	15.41
NWH:	28183	36.90%	18.45
Batsy:	11757	88.45%	19.11

 

Regal:     2279/11027  [20.67% sold]
Matinee:    625/4632  [13.49% | 6.01% of all tickets sold]

Batman added 7670 from this point, while NWH did 12,384. I will be hoping for 10K from DSitMoM.

[pepsa]

For people quoting the most anticipated list, it's clear that they mean very little I don't get why people use it to stave point:

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War (April 27) (678m)
2. Deadpool 2 (May 18) (318m)
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story (May 25) (213m)
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (June 22) (417m)
5. Incredibles 2 (June 15) (608m)

First off for some reason IW is counted to summer blockbusters and EG didn't in 2019. Now if we look at place 2 and 5, place 5 almost doubled the seconded one, it basilcly tripled the 3rd place and forth place did 35% better than second and almost doubled the 3rd place. That said the top 5 was pretty much the top 5 in domistic earnings (Solo made a bit less than antman and the wasp and MI fallout. Still the placement didn't mean jackshit, and it favours some movies whilst others do much worse than our forum was anticipating at the time.

 

 

1. Spiderman FFH (390m)
2. Rocketman (96m)
3. Godzilla (110m)
4. DarkPhoenix (65m)
5. LionKing (543m)

And now you can see how dumb this is, it's insane: the number one was only number 3 that summer. Number 5 did 50% more than number 1!! Toystory 4 (434m) wasn't even on the list, it made 10% more than the first one on the list (and it didn't even make top 5 whilst it should have been 2nd). Don't get started about three movies that made less than 120m (I mean a movie of 65m and 96m that straight up awefull. Number 2-4 shoudn't have been anywere near this list. The list also doesn't include aladin (355m). At the point where a movie that makes 65m can outclass movies that make 5-7 times more on a list you know it has basicly no real meaning what so ever.

 

Not to say that the list is never correct or that movies on it won't be big, rather to say people here have a much better grasp on the boxoffice than some popularity poll ever could. Using this list to say x movie over y is like using astrology to predict wheter or not you compatitble with you bf /gf.

I know I am ranting and wasting my time but goddamm I don't like these list

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Using this list to say x movie over y is like using astrology to predict wheter or not you compatitble with you bf /gf.

what do you mean you can't use astrology to predict whether or not you are compatible with your bf/gf. that's science bro.

 

are you really making an argument in favour of the list?

Edited April 22, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[SupermanLego]

Hopefully TG2 can make 300+ domestic. That will be a big win.

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

5/6/2022

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

$190,000,000 – $210,000,000

+6%

$450,000,000 – $560,000,000

+11%

4,400

Disney / Marvel Studios

 

 

5/20/2022

Downton Abbey: A New Era

$16,000,000 – $21,000,000

$45,000,000 – $65,000,000

Edited April 22, 2022 by ImNotRacistAtAll

[YM!]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Bad Guys Harkins California and Phoenix 4

 

California ~ 500/2445 on 12 shows (442 actuals, missed one show)

Phoenix 4 - 374/1862 on 13 shows

 

Total - 874

Very strong in 3 best performing locs Cerritos, Mountain Grove and Estrella.

Comps
22% of Sonic 2 Admits - $1.13M (Adjusted for ATP ~$975K)

27% of Paw Patrol - $1.21M

 

I guess $900K feels good since it was not that great in smaller locs. $18M I guess.

I feel a 20x multiple in this situation is too low, it should be over 20m in that scenario.

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Guess what I just discovered, everybody!

 

Top Gun: Maverick is having Tuesday sneaks on May 24th.

 

Yay.

 

(either that or Century Arden is being extra naughty with a TG:M showing at 7pm on the 24th)

 

@katnisscinnaplex @Inceptionzq @Eric is a furry

 

None are showing up on my source yet, so maybe it is a mistake?   Downton is doing early shows on Wednesday the 18th though. 

[YM!]

As for Top Gun Maverick, you can give me a number of $125m domestic and $285m domestic and neither would surprise me.

[filmlover]

Honestly that top 10 doesn't look at all off when you consider that it's going to be a relatively light summer in terms of product, especially with nothing of note coming out in August. 2023 is looking to be the most active, one-aspiring-hit-each-week summer since 2019.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/15/2022 at 9:08 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Fantastic Beasts 3	3,417	108,862		95,736	13,126	4,836	0
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	3,238	75,250	-32.38%	74,275	975	0	0
Morbius	2,711	31,147	-47.37%	31,085	62	0	0
Ambulance	2,814	31,071	-39.44%	30,989	82	15	0
The Lost City	2,719	30,657	-18.96%	30,581	76	0	0
Father Stu	2,358	27,690		27,631	59	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,941	22,124	43.44%	22,111	13	0	0
The Batman	2,005	17,220	-39.17%	17,173	47	0	0
Uncharted	1,013	7,413	-62.48%	7,413	0	0	0
K.G.F Chapter 2	500	5,757		5,757	0	0	0
Beast	281	2,396		2,396	0	0	0
Dual	144	1,904		1,904	0	0	0
Jujutsu Kaisen 0	237	1,605	-73.69%	1,605	0	0	0
Dog	214	1,418	-76.66%	1,418	0	0	0
Spider-Man NWH	205	1,176	-73.85%	1,170	6	0	6
CODA	165	1,143	-55.80%	1,143	0	0	0
Sing 2	104	591	-75.79%	587	4	0	4
X	125	519	-78.18%	519	0	0	0

US showtime sample for 4/15/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Father Stu (3-day) - 27,690 (2,358 TC)

 - King's Men (3-day) - 29,825 (2,800)

 - Stillwater - 28,558 (2,337)

Father Stu (5-day) - 45,982 (2,358)

 - King's Man (5-day) - 56,129 (2,800)

Secrets of Dumbledore - 108,862 (3,417 TC) (13,126 PLF shows)

 - No Time to Die - 112,174 (3,529) (6,225 IMAX)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436) (20,500 PLF shows)

 - Ghostbusters - 117,504 (3,243) (12,905 PLF shows)

 - Sonic 2 - 111,276 (3,410) (13,126 PLF shows)

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (4/16 EA) - 129 (128 TC)

 

T-1 Week Previews Comps

The Bad Guys - 33,122 (2,264 TC) (3,083 PLF shows)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

The Northman - 22,383 (1,935 TC) (1,847 PLF shows)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787 TC) (1,698 PLF)

 - The 355 - 21,633 (1,838 TC) (2,499 PLF)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627 TC)

 - X - 19,249 (1,746 TC)

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent - 21,853 (1,815 TC) (56 PLF)

 (See above)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Doctor Strange 2 - 30,203 (2,704 TC) (7,303 PLF shows)

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439) (2,426 PLF)

 

   T-2 week comp

 - Spider-Man - 26,573 (2,835 TC) (4,775 PLF shows)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Fantastic Beasts 3	3,376	55,593	-48.93%	49,224	6,369	3,721	0
The Bad Guys	3,297	67,781		60,375	7,406	0	5,087
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	3,125	50,850	-32.43%	49,928	922	0	0
The Northman	2,890	40,906		38,627	2,279	0	0
Massive Talent	2,708	39,439		39,340	99	0	0
Father Stu	2,341	25,836	-6.70%	25,775	61	0	0
The Lost City	2,344	24,378	-20.48%	24,323	55	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,919	20,363	-7.96%	20,352	11	0	0
Morbius	1,910	16,923	-45.67%	16,898	25	0	0
Ambulance	1,728	12,131	-60.96%	12,093	38	0	0
The Batman	1,394	9,386	-45.49%	9,381	5	0	0
Uncharted	462	3,129	-57.79%	3,129	0	0	0
¿Y cómo es él?	311	4,685		4,670	15	0	0
Jersey	307	2,539		2,539	0	0	0
K.G.F Chapter 2	343	3,065	-46.76%	3,065	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 4/22/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

 

The Bad Guys - 67,781 (3,297 TC) (7,406 PLF shows)

 - Addams Family - 68,219 (3,204)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

The Northman - 40,906 (2,890 TC) (2,279 PLF shows)

 - Last Night in Soho - 37,843 (2,701 TC) (2,168 PLF)

 - Antlers - 36,968 (2,572 TC) (119 PLF)

 - Reminiscence - 37,739 (2,931 TC) (1,670 PLF)

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent - 39,439 (2,708 TC) (99 PLF)

 - Copshop - 37,892 (2,641)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Memory - 14,955 (1,210 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 - CopShop - 16,693 (1,519)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Doctor Strange 2 - 31,994 (2,883 TC) (7,448 PLF shows)

 - Batman - 23,704 (2,907) (2,480 PLF)

 - Spider-Man - 26,573 (2,935) (4,775 PLF)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Family Camp - 1,472 (509 TC)

 - Redeeming Love - 1,403 (1,033)

 - Marry Me - 2,115 (1,068)

 

T-4 Week Previews

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 1,827 (1,810 TC)

Downton Abbey - 3,057 (1,982 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,871 (1,325)

 

Other

The Harbingers of Things to Come (5/12 Fathom) - 837 (818 TC)

ABBA: The Movie - Fan Event (5/12 & 5/14) - 893 (892 TC)

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,346 (624 TC)

 

Only seeing about 150 theaters listed so far for Top Gun so I'll wait until next week for that one.

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

Alpha changed their seat maps so my tracker missed everything yesterday.  Hopefully I'll have it working again tonight.

Good new: my tracker is working again.

Bad news: I messed something up on my end last night, so no new numbers until tonight.

[WrathOfHan]

8 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

An hour and these already dropped except Bad Guys lol

 

-Northman- 75% Verified Score 3.9/5 Av. Score

-Massive Talent- 88% Verified Score, Less than 50 votes, 4.3/5 Av. Score

-Bad Guys- 94% Verified Score, 4.5/6 Av. Score

 

Is Northman really on track for lower Cinemascore than Green Knight's C+?

 

Massive Talent is probably a B (maybe B+)

 

B-/C+ sounds right for Northman. The trailers don't mismarket it, but general audiences might not like how spaced out the battle scenes are.

 

A/A- are probably in store for the other two.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 4/21/2022 at 1:50 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Doctor Strange Harkins ~T-17 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	362	92,814	10,462	11.27%	$117,041	$11.19
Cine 1	31	9,394	5,339	56.83%	$77,458	$14.51
Cine Capri	6	2,673	611	22.86%	$8,373	$13.70
IMAX	4	1,780	916	51.46%	$14,656	$16.00
3D	21	3,885	210	5.41%	$2,841	$13.53
Total	424	110,546	17,538	15.86%	$220,369	$12.57

 

This is chugging along at good pace. Last 7 days pace is 4x Black Widow. Good pace. Need to keep it up. Target remains $35M+ preveiws.

 

Thanks @Menor Reborn for providing data.

Doctor Strange Harkins T-14 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	362	92,814	10,867	11.71%	$121,523	$11.18
Cine 1	32	9,821	5,585	56.87%	$82,126	$14.70
Cine Capri	6	2,673	629	23.53%	$8,613	$13.69
IMAX	4	1,780	945	53.09%	$15,120	$16.00
3D	54	8,674	443	5.11%	$6,088	$13.74
Total	458	115,762	18,469	15.95%	$233,470	$12.64

 

Comps

2.66x The Batman Gross - $57.5M
0.57x Spider-man: No Way Home Gross - $29M

 

Today was the final day of comps I had with Batman, and that's pretty much useless. NWH comps is also not worth much and the real comp will be T-10 days. I think we can hit 20K by then. The final admits would probably need to be around 60K admits for $35M.  

Note: I was missing ~300 worth tickets in last check due to new shows being added which I hadn't in my list.