The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[fabiopazzo2]

So

Doc2 190-215M OW

Top gun 70-110

JW Dominion: +200M

Thor L&T: 180-210M should be fun 

[XXR & Friends]

26 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 8	Location Count Projection (as of Wednesday)	% Change from Last Wknd
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	Disney & Marvel Studios	$210,000,000	$210,000,000	~4,400	NEW

 

$207,438,709 or bust! 

[dudalb]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, so am I, though the flavor of the liberal/left-lean here is slightly different than other cities.

 

ETA:

 

Actually, really curious about Denver, given the Air Force community in nearby Colorado Springs.  Any chance we could get a Quick and Dirty look at Denver, @Inceptionzq?

Still a lot of retired Air Force  here in Sacramento from the days when we had two major air bases in town..

Edited May 5, 2022 by dudalb

[Djsoke]

A quick anecdotal note: At my local theaters, I have never seen a movie with more showtimes than DS2. At my closest theater, there are 33 screenings for Thursday previews, which is as many (probably more) as Endgame ever had in a full day. Over the weekend, there are several one-hour blocks with 6 different start times, and FSS all have 40+ showings, which is 25-35% more than Endgame or NWH had. 

 

On Sunday, starting at 12:55 and ending at 1:50 there are 8 showtimes! And there's a premium format screening at 12:50 not shown here to make it 9 within one hour.

 

 

The combination of the shorter runtime and no competition clearly at play here, but it also totally kills the urgency of getting tickets beyond opening night. I live in suburban Dallas/Fort-Worth , so it's relatively quiet as it is, but then you can also show up at 1:00 and ask for tickets from whatever is available in the SIX(!) showtimes in the next 30 minutes 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Djsoke

[Tinalera]

Doctor Strange 2 

Friday May 6 (taken may 4)

Toronto Ontario

10 theatres

193 shows

 

Total Sold 12638

total remaining 35749

Total seats 48387

No Sellouts

Percentage 26.12

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Wow, @Shawn and co are super bullish OS

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Or it's a typo from 150, I mean, who can really say 😛

Shawn isn't playing safe anymore. 

[Rorschach]

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
    IMAX showings: 557/1,164
        3:00 pm: 95/388
        6:15 pm: 285/388
        9:30 pm: 177/388
    2D showings: 1,410/2,534
        3:25 pm: 67/135
        3:40 pm: 41/85
        3:55 pm: 88/238
        4:20 pm: 52/78
        4:50 pm: 71/141
        5:10 pm: 46/67
        5:20 pm: 56/94
        5:50 pm: 66/94
        6:00 pm: 38/67
        6:40 pm: 75/135
        6:55 pm: 63/85
        7:10 pm: 167/238
        7:35 pm: 58/78
        8:05 pm: 86/141
        8:35 pm: 64/94
        8:50 pm: 40/67
        9:05 pm: 65/94
        9:15 pm: 40/67
        9:55 pm: 64/135
        10:10 pm: 44/85
        10:25 pm: 68/238
        10:50 pm: 51/78
    Total Sold: 1,967/3,564 (55.2% sold)

 

Comps: 
No Way Home: $38.92 mil
The Batman: $42.23 mil
Average: $40.58 mil

 

    Friday:
    IMAX showings: 395/1,552
        12:30 pm: 46/388
        3:45 pm (3D): 30/388
        7:00 pm: 261/388
        10:15 pm: 58/388
    3D showings: 111/319
        10:30 am: 8/78
        1:45 pm: 13/78
        7:15 pm: 34/85
        8:15 pm: 56/78
    2D showings: 1,329/3,587
        10:05 am: 41/135
        10:55 am: 25/141
        11:20 am: 3/94
        11:45 am: 8/94
        12:10 pm: 3/85
        12:55 pm: 12/238
        1:20 pm: 29/135
        2:10 pm: 10/141
        2:35 pm: 19/94
        3:00 pm: 27/94
        3:25 pm: 8/85
        4:10 pm: 62/238
        4:35 pm: 47/135
        5:00 pm: 44/85
        5:10 pm: 28/67
        5:25 pm: 78/141
        5:50 pm: 67/94
        6:15 pm: 63/94
        6:40 pm: 64/85
        7:25 pm: 175/238
        7:50 pm: 69/135
        8:40 pm: 96/141
        8:50 pm: 40/67
        9:05 pm: 66/94
        9:30 pm: 61/94
        9:55 pm: 37/85
        10:30 pm: 23/85
        10:40 pm: 86/238
        11:05 pm: 38/135
    Total Sold: 1,835/5,458 (33.6% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 3,802/9,022 (42.1% sold)
    
Comps: 
No Way Home: $97.4 mil
The Batman: $126.08 mil
Average: $111.74 mil

[ZackM]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	193	961	662	6	35
Seats Added	13,944	95,395	64,909	1,591	2,235
Seats Sold	38,340	38,455	27,969	19,401	11,275
5/4/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	430	9,305	501,155	1,398,769	35.83%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	11	152	595	1,371	2,314
ATP
$16.11

 

 

Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Comps
	Spider-Man: No Way Home		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	$32.9	$36.7	$33.9	$30.9	$33.2	$34.7
T-2	$32.6	$36.5	$34.9	$31.6	$33.3	$34.9
T-3	$32.1	$35.9	$35.3	$31.8	$33.0	$34.6
T-4	$31.1	$34.9	$35.8	$32.0	$32.4	$34.0
T-5	$30.4	$34.2	$35.7	$31.8	$31.9	$33.5
T-6	$30.2	$34.0	$35.9	$31.9	$31.7	$33.3
T-7	$29.9	$33.5	$35.9	$31.9	$31.5	$33.0
T-8	$29.5	$33.0	$35.5	$31.5	$31.1	$32.6

 

[misterpepp]

Do we have a confirmed date for Men tickets? Lotta showtimes going up. Seems rare now that a Thursday preview starts at 7pm.

[charlie Jatinder]

Top Gun Harkins T-23 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	233	63,329	403	0.64%	$4,471	$11.09
Cine 1	30	8,967	502	5.60%	$7,754	$15.45
Cine Capri	6	2,673	135	5.05%	$1,934	$14.33
IMAX	3	1,335	92	6.89%	$1,472	$16.00
Total	272	76,304	1,132	1.48%	$15,631	$13.81
Cine 1 (EA)	9	2,778	1,094	39.38%	$17,494	$15.99
Cine Capri (EA)	2	891	251	28.17%	$3,960	$15.78
IMAX (EA)	1	445	249	55.96%	$3,984	$16.00
Total (EA)	12	4,114	1,594	38.75%	$25,438	$15.96
Total	284	80,418	2,726	3.39%	$41,069	$15.07

 

 

BUMPER start. 4th best start after NWH, DSitMoM and The Batman. Almost 70% of The Batman and 310% of Jurassic World Dominion.

 

FWIW The Batman wasn't all that backloaded so may be it need not do a lot after this start. Though regional over indexing may be a concern and we may need to see it. 

 

Let's see how it go for a week or so but I think $10M+ previews is locked. 

[Porthos]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22518	23662	1144	4.83%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	159
Total Seats Sold Today	27

 

Regal:     168/5924  [2.84% sold]
Matinee:    53/1537  [3.45% | 4.63% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-36 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22471	23662	1191	5.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

Regal:     168/5924  [2.84% sold]
Matinee:    53/1537  [3.45% | 4.63% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	256	34603	36119	1516	4.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1516

 

Day 1 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	385.75		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		4407	32.54%		28.68m
NTTD	547.29		277	277		0/132	19954/20231	1.37%		3737	40.57%		33.93m
Batsy	52.62		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	12.89%		11.37m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two extra days of sales for early access showings that accounted for 475 tickets sold before the main batch of tickets were released to the public.

 

Day 1 - Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	131.68		1089	1089		0/99	16124/17213	6.33%		9196	16.49%		18.20m
TG:M (adj)	---		1434	1434		0/222	29586/31020	4.62%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       356/2477   [14.37% sold]
Thursday Sales:    1160/33642 [3.45% sold]
    
Regal:       193/10514  [1.84% sold]
Matinee:    148/4980  [2.97% | 9.76% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Maaaaaybe F9 and NTTD weren't so hot comps after all.

 

(BW and F9 have both been adjusted for the lack of Ontario + BW is being sampled from different theaters, but I'm waaaaaaaaaaay behind so I'll change up those charts add the relevant info later tonight/tomorrow morning) 

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	34292	36201	1909	5.27%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	82
Total Seats Sold Today	393

 

Day 2 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	405.31		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		4407	41.16%		30.13m
NTTD	539.27		77	354		0/133	20265/20619	1.72%		3737	51.08%		33.43m
Batsy	59.01		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	16.24%		12.75m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two extra days of sales for early access showings that accounted for 475 tickets sold before the main batch of tickets were released to the public.

 

Day 2 - Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	138.16		224	1313		0/104	16873/18186	7.22%		9196	20.76%		19.10m
TG:M (adj)	---		380	1814		0/222	29206/31020	5.85%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:        487/2477  [19.66% sold] [+131 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    1422/33724 [4.22% sold]  [+262 tickets]
    
Regal:        217/10514  [2.06% sold]
Matinee:    189/4980  [3.80% | 9.90% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Very strong Day 2 locally, compared to the comps at least.  Shows that Day 1 was no real fluke here.  Guess Sacto is just nutso for fighter pilots.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	383	28323	44895	16572	36.91%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	15
Total Net Seats Added Today	1266
Total Seats Sold Today	1182

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	71.72		1659	23106		1/368	18946/42052	54.95%		28183	58.80%		35.86m
Batsy:	209.30		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	140.95%		45.21m

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	180.21%	24.91
SC:	5847	283.43%	24.94
LTBC:	7712	214.89%	24.93
ET:	6409	258.57%	24.56
NWH:	28183	58.80%	29.40
Batsy:	11757	140.95%	30.45

 

Regal:     3812/11507  [33.13% sold]
Matinee:    1178/4793  [24.58% | 7.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	404	28068	46335	18267	39.42%

 

Total Showings Added Today	21
Total Seats Added Today	1440
Total Seats Sold Today	1695

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	72.87		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	64.82%		36.44m
Batsy:	191.50		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	155.37%		41.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Doctor Strange in the Multitude of Madness's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	198.64%	27.46
SC:	5847	312.42%	27.49
LTBC:	7712	236.86%	27.48
ET:	6409	285.02%	27.08
NWH:	28183	64.82%	32.41
Batsy:	11757	155.37%	33.56

 

Regal:       4244/11857  [35.79% sold]
Matinee:    1363/4862  [28.03% | 7.46% of all tickets sold]

[Issac Newton]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Happy for Cruise. Hopefully next Mission also open $100M.

[Maggie]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Happy for Cruise. Hopefully next Mission also open $100M.

Doubt it. It would have had a chance if it opened this year with all the hype residuals from TG2

[SchumacherFTW]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Happy for Cruise. Hopefully next Mission also open $100M.

Eh, I'd say Top Gun is an outlier for Cruise rather than a new standard

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Eh, I'd say Top Gun is an outlier for Cruise rather than a new standard

No that was just a wishful hope. No real/serious analysis or thought there.

[Grebacio]

18 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Just think where theatrical was less than a year ago, and what it is going to look like this summer on July 8th.  

 

You will have a theater lineup on that day that includes the following.....

 

Doctor Strange: In the Multi-Verse of Madness - $200m+ opener

Top Gun: Maverick - $100m+ opener

Jurassic World: Dominion - $200m+ opener

Lightyear - $100m+ opener

The Black Phone - well reviewed summer horror

Elivs - should be a smash

Minions: Rise of Gru - $80m+ opener

Thor: Love and Thunder - possible $200m+ opener

 

You've got Marvel and Tom Cruise action, and Dinosaurs and horror and cinematic music biopic, legacy kids film and more.  

 

It's going to be absolutely packed this summer.  

Those Minions numbers are a bit high IMO. Last Despicable me opened with 72M, i predict 55-65 for Minions.