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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Eric the Minion Global Phenomenon

Eric the Minion

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

Easter Sunday Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 42 24 5392 0.45%

 

Comp

0.155x of Free Guy T-3 (341K)

0.087x of Jackass Forever T-3 (143K)

0.375x of Marry Me T-3 (197K)

0.046x of The Lost City T-3 (151K)

0.124x of Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent T-3 (104K)

0.088x of The Bob's Burgers Movie T-3 (132K)

 

I don't know if this will be male-skewing (I don't know who Jo Koy is, but I'm assuming guys like him) or female-skewing comedy (it's about family! Like Crazy Rich Asians!), so I went for both. Either way...yeah, why did they put this out in August?

Easter Sunday Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 42 41 5392 0.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

0.184x of Free Guy T-2 (404K)

0.122x of Jackass Forever T-2 (201K)

0.506x of Marry Me T-2 (266K)

0.061x of The Lost City T-2 (197K)

0.174x of Unbearable Weight T-2 (146K)

0.122x of The Bob's Burgers Movie T-2 (183K)

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Borf the Borf Cult Classic

Borf the Borf

Posted
Posted

 Top Gun: Maverick had a $3.9M Tuesday but it was a premium ticket even for PFL  premium ranging from 20-30 dollars.   not sure much to take from that in essence its like an extra nationwide PFL showing,  They will have 2 on Tuesday and 3 a day Fri - Sat. You could argue it takes away from the pool who would buy Thursday tickets but if word of mouth is good, then i belive the idea is it brings in new Thursday people.  Maybe they knew critics would pan it and they wanted audience reactions out out counter it. 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-2 Jax 7 57 22 157 10,374 1.51%
    Phx 6 31 20 202 6,391 3.16%
    Ral 8 33 49 166 4,218 3.94%
  Total   21 121 91 525 20,983 2.50%
Bullet Train (EA) T-0 Jax 5 5 39 122 1,201 10.16%
    Phx 1 1 17 69 208 33.17%
    Ral 1 1 12 67 261 25.67%
  Total   7 7 68 258 1,670 15.45%
Dragon Ball T-16 Jax 6 26 2 147 5,795 2.54%
    Phx 6 22 23 241 4,486 5.37%
    Ral 7 21 5 173 2,812 6.15%
  Total   19 69 30 561 13,093 4.28%
Easter Sunday T-2 Jax 6 21 15 63 2,895 2.18%
    Phx 6 20 7 18 2,468 0.73%
    Ral 8 22 4 9 2,342 0.38%
  Total   20 63 26 90 7,705 1.17%

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-2 comps

 - Dune - .348x (1.777m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - missed

 - F9 - .303x (2.15m)

 - Lost City - 1.504x (3.76m)

 - Morbius - .37x (2.11m)

 - Free Guy - 1.496x (3.29m)

 - Nope - .509x (3.256m)

 - Crawdads (Thu) - .924x (1.85m)

 

Growth Rate Check

1-day

Bullet Train +17.3%

Dune +21.77%

F9 +16.3%

Lost City +21.78%

Morbius +20.94%

Free Guy +13.11%

Nope +20.83%

Crawdads +23.24%

 

3-day pace

Bullet Train +36.19%

F9 +34.1%

Lost City +38.97%

Morbius +36.88%

Free Guy +32.19%

Nope +39.15%

Crawdads +44.37%

 

 

Comp Tracking

 

Day: T-1 hr T-0 T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7
Bullet Train                  
F9
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.303 0.300 0.297 0.294 0.306 0.281
Morbius 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.370 0.387 0.375 0.374 0.381 0.346
Nope 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.509 0.531 0.518 0.533 0.550 0.515
Crawdads 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.924 0.995 1.076 1.060 1.199 1.168

 

Easter Sunday T-2 comps

 - Massive Talent (Thu) - .657x (460k)

 - Vengeance - 1.875x

 - Elvis - .121x (388k)

 

Dragon Ball T-16 comp

 - JJK:0 - 1.18x (3.4m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-1 Jax 7 57 52 209 10,374 2.01%
    Phx 6 35 68 270 7,521 3.59%
    Ral 8 35 96 262 4,408 5.94%
  Total   21 127 216 741 22,303 3.32%
Dragon Ball T-15 Jax 6 26 6 153 5,795 2.64%
    Phx 6 22 11 252 4,486 5.62%
    Ral 7 21 8 181 2,812 6.44%
  Total   19 69 25 586 13,093 4.48%
Easter Sunday T-1 Jax 6 21 7 70 2,895 2.42%
    Phx 6 22 4 22 2,714 0.81%
    Ral 8 22 5 14 2,342 0.60%
  Total   20 65 16 106 7,951 1.33%

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Dune - .42x (2.14m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - missed

 - F9 - .34x (2.41m)

 - Lost City - 1.534x (3.84m)

 - Morbius - .43x (2.44m)

 - Free Guy - 1.834x (4.035m)

 - Nope - .542x (3.47m)

 - Crawdads (Thu) - 1.05x (2.09m)

 

Growth Rate Check

1-day

Bullet Train +29.15%

Dune +14.52%

F9 +20.68%

Lost City +27.74%

Morbius +18.08%

Free Guy +13.12%

Nope +24.45%

Crawdads +19.77%

 

3-day pace

Bullet Train +50.2%

F9 +43.1%

Lost City +50.31%

Morbius +43.21%

Free Guy +31.19%

Nope +47.8%

Crawdads +51.55%

 

 

Comp Tracking

 

Day: T-1 hr T-0 T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7
Bullet Train                  
F9
0.000 0.000 0.340 0.303 0.300 0.297 0.294 0.306 0.281
Morbius 0.000 0.000 0.428 0.370 0.387 0.375 0.374 0.381 0.346
Nope 0.000 0.000 0.542 0.509 0.531 0.518 0.533 0.550 0.515
Crawdads 0.000 0.000 1.047 0.924 0.995 1.076 1.060 1.199 1.168

 

Seems to be righting the ship. Will need another huge day to catch up to the expected 3m+ range.

 

Easter Sunday T-1 comps

 - Massive Talent (Thu) - .555x (388k)

 - Vengeance - 1.683x

 - Elvis - .123x (394k)

 

Maybe around 400k previews? 

 

Dragon Ball T-15 comp

 - JJK:0 - 1.095x (3.2m)

 

Slowed down considerably against JJK.  3-day growth of only 16% compared to JJK at 28%.

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Goldenhour36 Indie Sensation

Goldenhour36

Posted
Posted
On 8/1/2022 at 3:38 AM, Goldenhour36 said:

 

 

 

Bullet Train (Tracking Day 3) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Tuesday Showings: 

7:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 215 Tickets sold, 76.51% of seats (281) are sold  (12 New Tickets, 5.91% Increase) 

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 23 Tickets sold, 20.91% of seats (110) are sold (4 New Tickets, 21.05% Increase) 

7:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 66 Tickets sold, 60.00% of seats (110) are sold (No Changes) 

3:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 80 Tickets sold, 28.47% of seats (281) are sold (16 New Tickets, 25% Increase) 

6:15 PM (Dolby Cinema): 159 Tickets sold, 56.58% of seats (281) are sold (-10 New Tickets, -5.92% Decrease) 

9:30 PM (Dolby Cinema): 115 Tickets sold, 40.93% of seats (281) are sold (17 New Tickets, 17.35% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:45 PM (Dolby Cinema): 50 Tickets sold, 17.79% of seats (281) are sold (6 New Tickets, 13.64% Increase) 

4:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 41 Tickets sold, 14.59% of seats (281) are sold (No Changes) 

7:15 PM (Dolby Cinema): 137 Tickets sold, 48.75% of seats (281) are sold (18 New Tickets, 15.13% Increase) 

10:30 PM (Dolby Cinema): 54 Tickets sold, 19.22% of seats (281) are sold (3 New Tickets, 5.88% Increase) 

 

Total: 940 Tickets sold, 38.09% of seats (2468) are sold (66 New Tickets, 7.55% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 3): 1039 Tickets sold, 41.28% of seats (2517) are sold (x0.905) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

4:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (1452) are sold (No Changes) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 3): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (1052) are sold (x1.000) 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

 

Tuesday Showings: 

7:00 PM (GTX): 21 Tickets sold, 8.02% of seats (262) are sold (1 New Tickets, 5% Increase) 

 

Thursday Showings: 

3:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

4:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

6:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold. 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

9:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

1:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

3:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

4:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

6:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

9:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 21 Tickets sold, 0.67% of seats (3153) are sold (1 New Tickets, 5% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 3): 2 Tickets sold, 0.07% of seats (2916) are sold (x10.500) 

 

SUM Total: 961 Tickets sold, 13.59% of seats (7073) are sold (67 New Tickets, 7.49% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 3): 1041 Tickets sold, 16.05% of seats (6485) are sold (x0.923) 

 

 

 

 

Missed Tracking Day 4 

 

Bullet Train (Tracking Day 5) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Tuesday Showings: 

7:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 243 Tickets sold, 86.48% of seats (281) are sold (Final Count)  

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:00 PM (Dine-In Delivery to Seat): 37 Tickets sold, 33.64% of seats (110) are sold (14 New Tickets, 60.87% Increase) 

7:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 78 Tickets sold, 70.91% of seats (110) are sold (12 New Tickets, 18.18% Increase) 

3:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 101 Tickets sold, 35.94% of seats (281) are sold (21 New Tickets, 26.25% Increase) 

6:15 PM (Dolby Cinema): 188 Tickets sold, 66.90% of seats (281) are sold (29 New Tickets, 18.24% Increase) 

9:30 PM (Dolby Cinema): 140 Tickets sold, 49.82% of seats (281) are sold (25 New Tickets, 21.74% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:45 PM (Dolby Cinema): 56 Tickets sold, 19.93% of seats (281) are sold (6 New Tickets, 12% Increase) 

4:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 51 Tickets sold, 18.15% of seats (281) are sold (10 New Tickets, 24.39% Increase) 

7:15 PM (Dolby Cinema): 171 Tickets sold, 60.85% of seats (281) are sold (34 New Tickets, 24.82% Increase) 

10:30 PM (Dolby Cinema): 70 Tickets sold, 24.91% of seats (281) are sold (16 New Tickets, 29.63% Increase) 

 

Total: 1135 Tickets sold, 45.99% of seats (2468) are sold (195 New Tickets, 20.74% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 5): 1332 Tickets sold, 26.65% of seats (4999) are sold (x0.852) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

 

Thursday Showings: 

4:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

4:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (242) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (1452) are sold (No Changes) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 5): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (1052) are sold (x1.000) 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

 

Tuesday Showings: 

7:00 PM (GTX): 55 Tickets sold, 20.99% of seats (262) are sold (Final Count) 

 

Thursday Showings: 

3:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold   (No Changes) 

4:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold  (No Changes) 

6:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold  (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold  (No Changes) 

9:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold  (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold  (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

1:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

3:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

4:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

6:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

7:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

9:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (151) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (GTX): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (262) are sold (No Changes) 

Total: 55 Tickets sold, 1.74% of seats (3153) are sold (34 New Tickets, 161.90% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 5): 2 Tickets sold, 0.07% of seats (3033) are sold (x27.500) 

 

SUM Total: 1190 Tickets sold, 16.82% of seats (7073) are sold (229 New Tickets, 23.83% Increase) 

Comps 

Nope (Tracking Day 5): 1334 Tickets sold, 14.69% of seats (9084) are sold (x0.892) 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Bullet Train (EA) PLF 5 45 139 1,268 10.96% $14.97 $2,080.37
  Bullet Train (EA) Total   5 45 139 1,268 10.96% $14.97 $2,080.37
T-2 Bullet Train PLF 29 15 69 6,627 1.04% $14.87 $1,026.32
    Standard 36 38 102 4,293 2.38% $11.34 $1,156.38
  Bullet Train Total   65 53 171 10,920 1.57% $12.76 $2,182.70
T-2 Easter Sunday Standard 13 3 50 1,556 3.21% $13.13 $656.52
  Easter Sunday Total   13 3 50 1,556 3.21% $13.13 $656.52

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-2 Bullet Train N 45 42 139 7,697 1.81% $13.47 $1,872.04
    Y 20 11 32 3,223 0.99% $9.71 $310.66
  Bullet Train Total   65 53 171 10,920 1.57% $12.76 $2,182.70

 

This is just depressing at this point.

 

Bullet Train T-2 comps

 - Crawdads - .692x (1.38m)

 - Morbius - .15x (857k)

 - Nope - .319x (2.042m)

 - Northman - 1.305x (1.76m)

 

Easter Sunday T-2 comps

 - Massive Talent - 1.786x (1.49m)

 - Crawdads - .202x (405k)

 - Bob's Burgers - .233x (349k)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Bullet Train PLF 29 25 94 6,627 1.42% $14.85 $1,396.34
    Standard 41 45 147 4,946 2.97% $11.49 $1,688.34
  Total   70 70 241 11,573 2.08% $12.80 $3,084.68
T-1 Easter Sunday Standard 31 5 55 2,978 1.85% $13.15 $723.09
T-2 Bullet Train (Fri) PLF 41 144 144 10,345 1.39% $14.66 $2,110.38
    Standard 63 101 101 7,690 1.31% $11.38 $1,148.89
   Total   104 245 245 18,035 1.36% $13.30 $3,259.27
T-2 Easter Sunday (Fri) Standard 50 71 71 4,486 1.58% $12.57 $892.80

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Bullet Train N 50 58 197 8,350 2.36% $13.48 $2,656.28
    Y 20 12 44 3,223 1.37% $9.74 $428.40
  Total   70 70 241 11,573 2.08% $12.80 $3,084.68
T-2 Bullet Train (Fri) N 53 184 184 9,149 2.01% $14.27 $2,625.69
    Y 51 61 61 8,886 0.69% $10.39 $633.58
  Total   104 245 245 18,035 1.36% $13.30 $3,259.27
T-2 Easter Sunday (Fri) N 27 65 65 2,436 2.67% $12.90 $838.41
    Y 23 6 6 2,050 0.29% $9.07 $54.39
  Total   50 71 71 4,486 1.58% $12.57 $892.80

 

Thursday

 

Bullet Train T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .644x (1.289m)

 - Morbius - .169x (963k)

 - Nope - .315x (2.01m)

 - Northman - 1.516x (2.05m)

 

Easter Sunday T-1 comps

 - Massive Talent - 1.25x (1.04m)

 - Crawdads - .147x (294k)

 - Bob's Burgers - .207x (310k)

 

Friday

 

Bullet Train (Fri) T-2 comps

 - Crawdads - missed

 - Morbius - missed

 - Nope - .454x (5.96m)

 

Easter Sunday (Fri) T-2 comp

 - Crawdads - missed

 

Just... not good

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, M37 said:

At this point, I’m dubious it makes $40M for the full first week, off a mid (maybe high) $20s OW …

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Around 1.2 EA for BT.

 

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Growth Rate Check

1-day

Bullet Train +29.15%

Dune +14.52%

F9 +20.68%

Lost City +27.74%

Morbius +18.08%

Free Guy +13.12%

Nope +24.45%

Crawdads +19.77%

 

3-day pace

Bullet Train +50.2%

F9 +43.1%

Lost City +50.31%

Morbius +43.21%

Free Guy +31.19%

Nope +47.8%

Crawdads +51.55%

 

Welp, took not even a day for my previous take to age poorly.  The $ value of comps for both tracked samples are kinda over the place, since BT doesn't fit neatly into a genre box, but the pace really kicked up on Tuesday, and that's a solid EA number. Now thinking ~$5M total previews, a mid-$30M weekend (an IM around Nope's 7x), if that growth rate pace holds up through Thursday

 

Do we have an estimate for the Lost City EA shows? The reported Thursday was $2.5M, but that was without the early shows, correct?

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

Welp, took not even a day for my previous take to age poorly.  The $ value of comps for both tracked samples are kinda over the place, since BT doesn't fit neatly into a genre box, but the pace really kicked up on Tuesday, and that's a solid EA number. Now thinking ~$5M total previews, a mid-$30M weekend (an IM around Nope's 7x), if that growth rate pace holds up through Thursday

 

Do we have an estimate for the Lost City EA shows? The reported Thursday was $2.5M, but that was without the early shows, correct?

I have in my sheet that EA was 750k and the 2.5m did not include it

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Goldenhour36 Indie Sensation

Goldenhour36

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 8/1/2022 at 4:25 AM, Goldenhour36 said:

 

 

 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 3) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday Showings: 

5:00 PM (Digital): 5 Tickets sold, 3.14% of seats (159) are sold (No Changes) 

8:00 PM (Live with Jo Koy!): 5 Tickets sold, 3.14% of seats (159) are sold (5 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 2 Tickets sold, 2.25% of seats (89) are sold (1 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

4:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 4 Tickets sold, 4.49% of seats (89) are sold (2 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

6:45 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 2 Tickets sold, 2.25% of seats (89) are sold (-2 New Tickets, -50% Decrease) 

9:30 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 2 Tickets sold, 2.25% of seats (89) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 20 Tickets sold, 2.97% of seats (674) are sold (6 New Tickets, 42.86% Increase) 

Comps 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 3): 59 Tickets sold, 11.05% of seats (534) are sold (x0.339) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

 

Thursday Showings: 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings:  

12:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

2:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (1304) are sold (No Changes) 

No Comps 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

 

Thursday Showings: 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

2:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Total: 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (520) are sold (No Changes) 

No Comps 

 

SUM Total: 

20 Tickets sold, 0.80% of seats (2498) are sold (6 New Tickets, 42.86% Increase) 

Comps 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 3): 59 Tickets sold, 11.05% of seats (534) are sold (x0.339) 

 

 

 

 

Missed Tracking Day 4 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 5) 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

Thursday Showings: 

5:00 PM (Digital): 6 Tickets sold, 3.77% of seats (159) are sold (1 New Tickets, 20% Increase) 

8:00 PM (Live with Jo Koy!): 8 Tickets sold, 5.03% of seats (159) are sold (3 New Tickets, 60% Increase) 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:15 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 5 Tickets sold, 5.62% of seats (89) are sold (3 New Tickets, 150% Increase) 

4:00 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 9 Tickets sold, 10.11% of seats (89) are sold (5 New Tickets, 125% Increase) 

6:45 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 4 Tickets sold, 4.49% of seats (89) are sold (2 New Tickets, 100% Increase) 

9:30 PM (Dine-in Delivery to Seat): 3 Tickets sold, 3.37% of seats (89) are sold (1 New Tickets, 50% Increase) 

Total: 35 Tickets sold, 5.19% of seats (674) are sold (15 New Tickets, 75% Increase) 

Comps 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 5): 99 Tickets sold, 15.34% of seats (669) are sold (x0.354) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

Thursday Showings: 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

2:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (163) are sold (No Changes) 

Total: 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (1304) are sold (No Changes) 

No Comps 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

Thursday Showings: 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

2:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

5:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

7:30 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

10:00 PM (Standard): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (65) are sold (No Changes) 

Total: 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (520) are sold (No Changes)

No Comps 

 

SUM Total: 

35 Tickets sold, 1.40% of seats (2498) are sold (15 New Tickets, 75% Increase) 

Comps 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 5): 99 Tickets sold, 15.34% of seats (669) are sold (x0.354) 

Edited by Goldenhour36
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

Welp, took not even a day for my previous take to age poorly.  The $ value of comps for both tracked samples are kinda over the place, since BT doesn't fit neatly into a genre box, but the pace really kicked up on Tuesday, and that's a solid EA number. Now thinking ~$5M total previews, a mid-$30M weekend (an IM around Nope's 7x), if that growth rate pace holds up through Thursday

 

Do we have an estimate for the Lost City EA shows? The reported Thursday was $2.5M, but that was without the early shows, correct?

 

21 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I have in my sheet that EA was 750k and the 2.5m did not include it

 

I do want to note that Bullet Train had around 900 EA shows.  For comparison:

 

Lost City (three days of EA) total 780 for ~750k

Death on the Nile had 824 shows (EA not reported, but 1.1m total previews)

Ghostbusters had 200 shows and earned ~350k

Sonic 2 had 745 and earned ~1.27m

Top Gun (two days of EA) had 1,257 shows combined for ~4.6m

Crawdads had 284 shows and earned ~300k

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

I do want to note that Bullet Train had around 900 EA shows.  For comparison:

 

Lost City (three days of EA) total 780 for ~750k

Death on the Nile had 824 shows (EA not reported, but 1.1m total previews)

Ghostbusters had 200 shows and earned ~350k

Sonic 2 had 745 and earned ~1.27m

Top Gun (two days of EA) had 1,257 shows combined for ~4.6m

Crawdads had 284 shows and earned ~300k

Looking at at the other high volume EA comps and the EA/Thur ratio 

 

LC = 3.33

Sonic = 2.94

TGM = 3.22

 

None are great comparisons for a variety of factors, but a 3x seems like a reasonable estimate, $3.6 for Thur/$4.8M total, and with pace of sales suggesting BT is going to be at least somewhat GA/walkup friendly, not going to be at all surprised if total lands above $5M

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted

Bullet Train T-2 (T-0 friday, missed T-3)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

Train # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 20 79 389 19157 19546 0.0199
Fri 20 132 330 33477 33807 0.0097

 

 

Comps

 

Thurs

 

x .3397 Minions 2 (1.09 Million CAN, 16.3 CAN/US)

x.1.314 Lightyear (985 Thousand CAN, 26.2 CAN/US)

x .1078 Thor 4 (528 Thousand CAN, 7.43 CAN/US)

 

Friday

x .1721 Minions 2 (556 thousand CAN, 8.26 CAN/US)

x .5296 Lightyear (390 thousand CAN, 10.5 CAN/US)

x.0402 Thor 4 (197 thousand CAN, 2.77 CAN/US)

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

So, I just found out that Luck is getting dumped this weekend.  I finally saw a trailer for it yesterday, and now today, I've found out it's got a $140M budget and it's Lasseter's comeback movie.  Damn.

 

I'm really hoping this is a day and date release on Apple TV or something (I think it is, but Apple is always weird figuring that out) b/c while I knew Paws of Fury would bomb, this one actually has some pedigree and serious money behind it...and might be trying to barely eke out the same numbers or less!

Edited by TwoMisfits
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misterpepp Sleeper Hit

misterpepp

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, I just found out that Luck is getting dumped this weekend.  I finally saw a trailer for it yesterday, and now today, I've found out it's got a $140M budget and it's Lasseter's comeback movie.  Damn.

 

I'm really hoping this is a day and date release on Apple TV or something (I think it is, but Apple is always weird figuring that out) b/c while I knew Paws of Fury would bomb, this one actually has some pedigree and serious money behind it...and might be trying to barely eke out the same numbers or less!


Some Marcus locations have it booked, but otherwise it’s straight-to-TV+. Saw an ad for it and while it didn’t look cheap, it didn’t look like a $140m production either.

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Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

Posted
Posted

 

Box Office Pro predictions

 

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 7 Location Count Projection (as of Wed) % Change from Last Wknd
Bullet Train Sony Pictures $35,000,000 $35,000,000 ~4,300 NEW
DC League of Super-Pets Warner Bros. Pictures $12,100,000 $47,800,000 ~4,314 -47%
Nope Universal Pictures $9,900,000 $100,000,000 ~3,300 -47%
Thor: Love and Thunder Disney & Marvel Studios $8,200,000 $317,100,000 ~3,400 -38%
Minions: The Rise of Gru Universal & Illumination Animation $7,700,000 $335,600,000 ~3,300 -30%
Top Gun: Maverick Paramount Pictures $6,800,000 $662,300,000 ~3,000 -19%
Where the Crawdads Sing Sony 3000 Pictures $5,100,000 $64,100,000 ~3,100 -33%
Easter Sunday Universal Pictures $4,800,000 $4,800,000 ~3,200 NEW
Elvis Warner Bros. Pictures $4,600,000 $137,200,000 ~2,400 -20%
The Black Phone Universal Pictures $1,600,000 $86,100,000 ~1,300 -36%

 

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

No way Bullet Train does 35M with those reviews. More like 25M.

Sales are looking really strong near me, not too far off from Elvis or Nope tbh. The reviews aren't anywhere close to being bad enough (in fact they're not even bad at all? Reception is looking to be more mixed than expected) to sink it anyway.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

Bullet Train, counted today at 9am EST for Thursday, August 4:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 166 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 177 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 18 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 52 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 295 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 511 (13 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.238.

It jumped 41% since Monday which is ok but e.g. way worse than the jump that The Lost City had back then (70% from Monday to Wednesday, of course that is easier on a lower level).
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Death on the Nile had 359 sold tickets,

Crawdads had 212 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 520 sold tickets.

 

Bullet Train, counted today at 9am EST for Friday, August 5:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 254 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 149 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 19 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 220 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 335 (16 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.000 :).


Up quite decent 53% since Monday (but The Lost City had a jump of 165% from Monday to Wednesday).
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Death on the Nile had 357 sold tickets,

Crawdads had 185 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 519 sold tickets.
So it seems to be a bit more frontloaded than The Lost City. The numbers are as always good but let's see how big the jumps are till tomorrow and if the mediocre reviews have an impact.

 

Easter Sunday had today 243 sold tickets for Friday.

Up ok 50% since Monday.

Comps: Massive Talent had on Wednesday for Friday 335 sold tickets (but I guess Easter Sunday is less of a niche film)

and Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard had also on Wednesday for Friday 132 sold tickets.

Over/under 10M at the moment?

 

Still no Beast tickets on sale!

Edited by el sid
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