The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

14 hours ago, Eric the Lion said:

Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	967	10201	9.48%

 

Comp

0.880x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-3 (2.53M)

Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	1094	9902	11.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 127

 

Comp

0.885x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-2 (2.55M)

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

weird. Thought it looked super gory and bloody

The target audience is clearly teenage to 20-something females. I imagine with editing choices that intentionally obscure any nastier elements it's easy to get away with a PG-13 for a movie like this.

[SchumacherFTW]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Any film that cross ¥1.0B is commerical success in Japan

 

Dragon Ball Super: Super Heroes stand at ¥2.48B. 

 

Now, it's up to you if you still consider it as bombed.

It's had a big drop from Broly, you can't deny that

[Cooper Legion]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Any film that cross ¥1.0B is commerical success in Japan

LOL  

 

That’s like 2.5% of the record. Definitely not true that hitting just 1B is enough to be a success. 

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

LOL  

 

That’s like 2.5% of the record. Definitely not true that hitting just 1B is enough to be a success. 

I am talking about commercial success - we are not making a heavy budget film. Max film have budget less than ¥300M. I doubt from which point you all are calling it a bombed. If there is something that is making bombed if we compare to it's prequel than it will be LightYear (¥1.19B) from Toy Story 4 (¥10B)

 

DS had a drop but not as might as many of you are thinking. + It's not really that heavy budget film - roughly just ¥650M - no losses, except drop from prev film.

 

1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

It's had a big drop from Broly, you can't deny that

Unless, it's making any loss. I don't care about the drop. DS isn't following Yokai Watch Franchise trend. I admit 3D isn't popular here, but Toei won't repeat the same thing again

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/16/2022 at 7:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-2	Jax	6	24	6	17	2,993	0.57%
		Phx	6	18	11	50	2,565	1.95%
		Ral	8	21	17	46	2,417	1.90%
	Total		20	63	34	113	7,975	1.42%
Dragon Ball	T-2	Jax	6	26	56	374	5,795	6.45%
		Phx	6	21	46	517	4,409	11.73%
		Ral	7	28	4*	341	3,580	9.53%
	Total		19	75	106	1,232	13,784	8.94%

*DBS had a show lose an 8 seat group sale since yesterday in Raleigh

 

Beast T-2 comps

 - Dune - .075x (382k)

 - Snake Eyes - .49x (691k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .345x (930k)

 - Bullet Train - .215x (721k)

 - Candyman - .554x (1.05m)

 - Old - .86x (1.28m)

 

Dragon Ball T-2 comp

 - JJK:0 - .91x (2.62m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.055x (3.04m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Beast	T-1	Jax	6	26	19	36	3,213	1.12%
		Phx	7	21	22	72	2,819	2.55%
		Ral	8	21	12	58	2,417	2.40%
	Total		21	68	53	166	8,449	1.96%
Dragon Ball	T-1	Jax	6	31	82	456	5,957	7.65%
		Phx	7	23	84	601	4,607	13.05%
		Ral	8	31	54	395	3,819	10.34%
	Total		21	85	220	1,452	14,383	10.10%

 

Beast T-1 comps

 - Dune - .094x (480k)

 - Snake Eyes - .532x (745k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .359x (970k)

 - Bullet Train - .224x (750k)

 - Candyman - .565x (1.07m)

 - Old - .82x (1.23m)

 - Nope - .122x (778k)

 

Pretty good day for Beast.  Increased against everything except Old.  Looking like 800k range right now, but I could see it get up to 1m

 

Dragon Ball T-1 comp

 - JJK:0 - .97x (2.79m)

 -MHA (Fri) - 1.086x (3.13m)

 

Good day for Dragon Ball as well.  Still looking like the 3m range

[filmlover]

‘Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero’ To Overpower Idris Elba’s ‘Beast’ At Weekend Box Office https://t.co/Ate8EZtBte

— Deadline Hollywood (@DEADLINE) August 17, 2022

[M37]

For those who follow/are into Dragon Ball and the like, what is the anticipation level as compared to JJK - higher, lower, or about the same? Should we expect a similar IM/weekend pattern (before taking into consideration external factors like time of year, IMAX spread, etc)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/16/2022 at 8:40 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Beast	PLF	6	3	19	1,044	1.82%	$15.43	$293.17
		Standard	21	0	4	2,456	0.16%	$12.99	$51.96
	Total		27	3	23	3,500	0.66%	$15.01	$345.13
T-2	Dragon Ball	PLF	21	127	1,099	5,837	18.83%	$15.46	$16,993.20
		Standard	45	48	609	6,425	9.48%	$13.56	$8,257.77
	Total		66	175	1,708	12,262	13.93%	$14.78	$25,250.97
T-3	Beast (Fri)	PLF	15	2	10	2,960	0.34%	$14.56	$145.62
		Standard	30	3	11	3,520	0.31%	$9.94	$109.30
	Total		45	5	21	6,480	0.32%	$12.14	$254.92
T-3	Dragon Ball (Fri)	PLF	30	74	670	8,095	8.28%	$14.90	$9,980.98
		Standard	29	23	267	3,397	7.86%	$13.75	$3,670.51
	Total		59	97	937	11,492	8.15%	$14.57	$13,651.49

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Beast (Fri)	N	18	5	15	2,592	0.58%	$12.86	$192.95
		Y	27	0	6	3,888	0.15%	$10.33	$61.97
	Total		45	5	21	6,480	0.32%	$12.14	$254.92
T-3	Dragon Ball (Fri)	N	56	94	905	10,808	8.37%	$14.66	$13,266.59
		Y*	3	3	32	684	4.68%	$12.03	$384.90
	Total		59	97	937	11,492	8.15%	$14.57	$13,651.49

*Most of the early DBS shows are still using event pricing so I'm not marking them as matinee.

 

Beast T-2 comps

 - Massive Talent - .821x (686k)

 - Firestarter - 2.3x (863k)

*Take any comps with a grain of salt - sales are so low even a single ticket will change the comp a very large amount

 

I don't have any anime comps yet, so this is just for future use.  CBM comps are between 4.5m and 6m, but I don't expect this to have nearly the same growth rate this week.  Friday sales look pretty good, but those same comps point to only a small increase from previews.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Beast	PLF	9	6	25	1,746	1.43%	$15.43	$385.75
		Standard	21	12	16	2,465	0.65%	$12.79	$204.60
	Total		30	18	41	4,211	0.97%	$14.40	$590.35
T-1	Dragon Ball	PLF	27	94	1,193	6,811	17.52%	$15.43	$18,402.48
		Standard	52	96	705	7,220	9.76%	$13.60	$9,590.65
	Total		79	190	1,898	14,031	13.53%	$14.75	$27,993.13
T-2	Beast (Fri)	PLF	15	11	21	2,960	0.71%	$14.76	$309.91
		Standard	35	26	37	4,013	0.92%	$11.30	$417.98
	Total		50	37	58	6,973	0.83%	$12.55	$727.89
T-2	Dragon Ball (Fri)	PLF	39	135	805	10,590	7.60%	$14.90	$11,997.32
		Standard	72	74	341	9,275	3.68%	$13.75	$4,687.73
	Total		111	209	1,146	19,865	5.77%	$14.56	$16,685.05

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Beast (Fri)	N	23	35	50	3,085	1.62%	$12.93	$646.44
		Y	27	2	8	3,888	0.21%	$10.18	$81.45
	Total		50	37	58	6,973	0.83%	$12.55	$727.89
T-2	Dragon Ball (Fri)	N	103	207	1,112	18,551	5.99%	$14.64	$16,275.25
		Y*	8	2	34	1,314	2.59%	$12.05	$409.80
	Total		111	209	1,146	19,865	5.77%	$14.56	$16,685.05

*Most of the early DBS shows are still using event pricing so I'm not marking them as matinee.

 

Beast T-1 comps

 - Massive Talent - .932x (778k)

 - Firestarter - 3.42x (1.28m)

*Take any comps with a grain of salt - sales are so low even a single ticket will change the comp a very large amount

 

*I don't have any anime comps yet, so this is just for future use.  CBM comps are between 5m and 6.3m, but I don't expect this to have nearly the same growth rate this week.  Friday sales look pretty good, but those same comps point to only a small increase from previews.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

I am talking about commercial success - we are not making a heavy budget film. Max film have budget less than ¥300M. 

Cost of production isn't only thing of budget. Majority is talent remuneration.

 

A Shinkai film may have just $5M cost of production, but there is no way Shinkai doesn't cost $50M as his film can do $200M worldwide.

[filmlover]

Box Office: Idris Elba's Beast, Dragon Ball Opening Weekend Estimate - Variety

 

Dragon Ball: $13-15M

Beast: $10M

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Cost of production isn't only thing of budget. Majority is talent remuneration.

 

A Shinkai film may have just $5M cost of production, but there is no way Shinkai doesn't cost $50M as his film can do $200M worldwide.

There is nothing called Talent remuneration in the industry. Everything is included in the budget. No matter whether your film earn beyond/under expectations. You wouldn't get a single penny from profit% - Neither Distributor nor Production Studio care about it. 

 

If you run a simple search you will find how the industry is under-paying you and how studio doesn't care about your significant to the project. Shinkai didn't earn $50M from Your Name ~It's a big misinformation. 

 

Shinkai earn only ¥200M from Your Name - https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/geino/192112/3

 

Profit Share in Japan is usually 45:55 between Studio &Distributor --- &Overseas Theatrical Rights owner get 40% of Overseas Gross.

[Krissykins]

Beast cost $36m. 
 

So probably won’t turn out to be the late August hit some of us expected. Crawl only cost a third of that. 
 

It could also miss $10m if the previews are in the $800k range. 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Shinkai didn't earn $50M from Your Name ~It's a big misinformation. 

 

Shinkai earn only ¥200M from Your Name - https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/geino/192112/3

sure, not from Your Name but there is no way he ain't taking that much from Weathering with you or later.

[M37]

I can still see Beast being GA/walk-up friendly and putting up a decent Thursday and double digit IM, won’t be totally shocked if it hits low double digits … but that’s now the optimistic outcome rather than the midpoint of the range, down to like $7-$12M

 

From a wide view perspective, do think there’s a decent chance numbers all around are better than “expected” this weekend, but if not, to me it signals just how low the BO is going to fall over the next month. Great holds due to lack of competition matter less if the baseline keeps getting lower  

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

For those who follow/are into Dragon Ball and the like, what is the anticipation level as compared to JJK - higher, lower, or about the same? Should we expect a similar IM/weekend pattern (before taking into consideration external factors like time of year, IMAX spread, etc)

Looks very weak compared to JJK0 here in the UK. A lot less buzz compared to Broly online as well

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, M37 said:

I can still see Beast being GA/walk-up friendly and putting up a decent Thursday and double digit IM, won’t be totally shocked if it hits low double digits … but that’s now the optimistic outcome rather than the midpoint of the range, down to like $7-$12M

 

From a wide view perspective, do think there’s a decent chance numbers all around are better than “expected” this weekend, but if not, to me it signals just how low the BO is going to fall over the next month. Great holds due to lack of competition matter less if the baseline keeps getting lower  

Beast is getting only one screen at most multiplexes near me (the ones where it is getting more than that are places with more than one PLF screen) so it does seem as if it's going to be lucky to hit double digits. I guess lions just aren't nearly as enticing as sharks or alligators.

Edited August 17, 2022 by filmlover

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews Report:

 

Dragon Ball (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	48	126	603	7242	8.33

 

Beast (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	27	27	78	4035	1.93

 

Three Thousand Years of Longing (T-9):

Day: T-10	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 4 theaters	9	2	27	1822	1.48

 

The drop in tickets for Three Thousand Years isn't real, I just messed up the count yesterday because I'm stupid.

Beast Comp: 1.8x

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews Report:

 

Dragon Ball (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	55	74	677	7186	9.42

 

Beast (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	33	30	108	4220	2.56

 

Three Thousand Years of Longing (T-8):

Day: T-8	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 8 theaters	17	34	61	2443	2.5

 

Comp: Didn't track Beast at T-8.

[abracadabra1998]

What's The Invitation's long range forecast looking like? Is it worth tracking? Could set up something tomorrow

[Old Spice]

Back to back weekend openers for Idris with Beast and Three Thousand and so far they have sold a total of 3 tickets between them at my theater.

 

Dragon is looking pretty decent currently with 57 tix sold for tomorrow night.