The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[jedijake]

How is BPWF pacing lower than ThorLT but all the comps are (albeit slightly) higher?

Edited October 24, 2022 by jedijake

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, jedijake said:

How is BPWF pacing lower than ThorLT but all the comps are (albeit slightly) higher?

B/c most folks probably are not polling many MTC 2 locations in their cities (since MTC 2 is less spread domestically than MTC 1 and is less city-focused)...

 

 

 

[Eric S'ennui]

Prey for the Devil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	48	3291	1.46%

 

Comp

0.511x of Escape Room 2 T-3 (613K)

1.714x of The Night House T-3 (446K)

0.842x of Antlers T-3 (312K)

0.238x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (166K)

0.649x of X T-3 (285K)

1.171x of Firestarter T-3 (439K)

0.762x of Men T-3 (322K)

0.857x of The Invitation T-3 (664K)

0.578x of Barbarian T-3 (492K)

[Eric S'ennui]

On 10/23/2022 at 11:19 PM, Eric Adam said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	6265	42932	14.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp

1.437x of The Batman T-18 (31.04M)

0.700x of Doctor Strange 2 T-18 (25.21M)

1.305x of Thor 4 T-18 (37.84M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	6385	42932	14.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 120

 

Comp

0.567x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-17 (28.34M)

1.405x of The Batman T-17 (30.36M)

0.694x of Dcotor Strange 2 T-17 (25M)

1.304x of Thor 4 T-17 (37.81M)

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, jedijake said:

How is BPWF pacing lower than ThorLT but all the comps are (albeit slightly) higher?

MTC1/MTC2 is about 45% of market and its lower across the board. Beyond that Harkins/Marcus/Megaplex are also lower. Only markets which are higher to my knowledge are Phily/Sacremento/Drafthouse. That is tiny % compared to the other side. 

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, jedijake said:

How is BPWF pacing lower than ThorLT but all the comps are (albeit slightly) higher?

 

Besides what everyone else said, BP2 has 14 more days of pre-sales than L&T had at this point.  That matters quite a bit at this stage of the game.

[Factcheck]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Besides what everyone else said, BP2 has 14 more days of pre-sales than L&T had at this point.  That matters quite a bit at this stage of the game.

What does this tell? WF is heading for 26-27M previews, 10% lower than L&T?

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	30596	37024	6428	17.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

114

 

T-18 Comp

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.72		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	30.44%		24.02m
L&T	109.39		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	37.90%		31.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1519/11835  [12.83% sold]
Matinee:    312/4103  [7.60% | 4.85% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	30450	37024	6574	17.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

146

T-17 Comp

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.67		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	31.13%		24.00m
L&T	108.95		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	38.76%		31.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1561/11835  [13.19% sold]
Matinee:    316/4103  [7.70% | 4.81% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

What does this tell? WF is heading for 26-27M previews, 10% lower than L&T?

 

Really is too soon to say, as I at least suspect it'll get better reactions/reviews than L&T did, which should lead to an increase in ticket sales relative to L&T.

[stripe]

When does social media and reviews embargo end for BPWF?

[cmbbox2390]

13 minutes ago, stripe said:

When does social media and reviews embargo end for BPWF?

Social media embargo lifts on Wednesday, October 26th at 10:00pm PT.
 

Review embargo lifts on Tuesday, November 8th at 12:00pm PT.

[stripe]

38 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Social media embargo lifts on Wednesday, October 26th at 10:00pm PT.
 

Review embargo lifts on Tuesday, November 8th at 12:00pm PT.

 

Thanks!

The gap between both embargos is huge... And reviews are very close to opening to really boost previews

[jedijake]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1/MTC2 is about 45% of market and its lower across the board. Beyond that Harkins/Marcus/Megaplex are also lower. Only markets which are higher to my knowledge are Phily/Sacremento/Drafthouse. That is tiny % compared to the other side. 

Wouldn't Philly (large city) and Sacramento (medium city) together make up a good sample of what the country would look like?

 

And wouldn't chains like Harkins, Marcus, and Megaplex pale in comparison to chains like AMC, Regal, and Cinemark (MC1 I presume).

 

And also, wouldn't the greater Philly and Sacramento area include sales from all chains in those cities? The only actual cities we get are Philly, Sacramento, and Denver.

[M37]

36 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Wouldn't Philly (large city) and Sacramento (medium city) together make up a good sample of what the country would look like?

Not necessarily, as markets will often over- or underindex depending on their demographic mix and the draw of the specific film. For example, you would expect Philly - and its large Black population - to preform better for Black Panther than for other MCU titles, particularly Thor, which was was a reported just 16% Black. For the opposite reason, Denver will probably be on the lower side for BPWF, while Sacto has some dark magic where it appears to have just the right demographic mix that usually makes it a good representative sample for the nation as a whole

 

39 minutes ago, jedijake said:

And wouldn't chains like Harkins, Marcus, and Megaplex pale in comparison to chains like AMC, Regal, and Cinemark (MC1 I presume).

Like markets, chains can bring in a higher or lower share of the total for given title. Less variance with the big ones than with individual markets, but part of the tracking also includes nearly all of Alpha

Spoiler

Alpha = MTC1 = AMC

MTC2 = Cinemark

 

Overall, its still early in tracking, and comps have been on sale for different amounts of time, but keep in mind that Thor was a summer release, right after 4th of July, meaning more people were available to watch its Thursday preview than will be for BPWF. A $25M preview still likely means BPWF would blow past Thor's $145M weekend

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not necessarily, as markets will often over- or underindex depending on their demographic mix and the draw of the specific film. For example, you would expect Philly - and its large Black population - to preform better for Black Panther than for other MCU titles, particularly Thor, which was was a reported just 16% Black. For the opposite reason, Denver will probably be on the lower side for BPWF, while Sacto has some dark magic where it appears to have just the right demographic mix that usually makes it a good representative sample for the nation as a whole

 

Like markets, chains can bring in a higher or lower share of the total for given title. Less variance with the big ones than with individual markets, but part of the tracking also includes nearly all of Alpha

  Reveal hidden contents

Alpha = MTC1 = AMC

MTC2 = Cinemark

 

Overall, its still early in tracking, and comps have been on sale for different amounts of time, but keep in mind that Thor was a summer release, right after 4th of July, meaning more people were available to watch its Thursday preview than will be for BPWF. A $25M preview still likely means BPWF would blow past Thor's $145M weekend

 

With Veteran's Day on Friday (which ALMOST everyone gets off vs Columbus Day/Indigenous People Day), that's not as true as a normal fall open (like Black Adam's)...

[M37]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

With Veteran's Day on Friday (which ALMOST everyone gets off vs Columbus Day/Indigenous People Day), that's not as true as a normal fall open (like Black Adam's)...

Agreed, it’s somewhere in between, but even Easter (Good Friday) openings are not as frontloaded as comparable titles in summer, particularly that post-July 4th weekend. And while most schools and even offices will be closed for Veteran’s Day, most retail/food/etc business will be open - not “everyone” is off - and that is particularly relevant for the expected BPWF audience
Should have a higher IM than the other $100M+ MCU openings post-pandemic probably not reaching Eternals/Shang-Chi level (7-8x), but not falling to ~5.2x range, even with the holiday effect

[jedijake]

Well, lol, we should hope it blows past the tepic $145 million OW of ThLT. 

 

A 6X IM from a $27 million preview would give it $162 m OW. That, in all honesty, would be rather anemic.

 

Hoping for at least $30 m in previews. Does it have a decent chance at this?

Edited October 25, 2022 by jedijake

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Well, lol, we should hope it blows past the tepic $145 million OW of ThLT. 

 

A 6X IM from a $27 million preview would give it $162 m OW. That, in all honesty, would be rather anemic.

 

Hoping for at least $30 m in previews. Does it have a decent chance at this?

You're just gonna have to be patient and wait to see how it bumps from reactions and how it trends in the final week, everyone here has given you all the info we have for now. 30m is not off the table but needs a very strong closing kick.

[M37]

13 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Hoping for at least $30 m in previews. Does it have a decent chance at this?

Decent chance, sure, but unlikely we get clarity until the final week, with no catalyst expected to boost sales before then.
And fwiw, I’m expecting sales to slump a bit - relative to comps - over the next week leading up to Halloween. So no need to panic if the Strange comps in particular slide back into the lower $20s range as we roll into November

[romeross]

16 hours ago, el sid said:

In all shortness:

Prey for the Devil had today 115 sold tickets for Thursday.

 

And for Friday it had today 149 sold tickets.
 

Did I understand that "Prey for the Devil" will have a higher box office OW than "The Invitation"?