The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/15/2022 at 10:53 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-26	Jax	6	128	583*	1,488	18,561	8.02%
		Phx	6	125	390*	1,216	18,513	6.57%
		Ral	8	121	643*	1,946	14,973	13.00%
	Total		20	374	1,616*	4,650	52,047	8.93%
BP2 DF	T-26	Jax	2	2	42*	97	198	48.99%

*New BP & BP DF sales since day 1*

 

Black Panther T-26 comps

 - Black Widow - 6.11x (80.66m)

 - JW3 - 2.53x (45.59m)

 - DS2 (T-27) - .668x (24.06m)

 

Long ways to go

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-16	Jax	6	128	327*	1,815	18,561	9.78%
		Phx	6	125	247*	1,463	18,513	7.90%
		Ral	8	120	407*	2,353	14,882	15.81%
	Total		20	373	981*	5,631	51,956	10.84%
BP2 DF	T-16	Jax	2	2	25*	122	198	61.62%
	Total		2	2	25*	122	198	61.62%
One Piece	T-9	Jax	5	24	134	134	5,074	2.64%
		Phx	5	14	156	156	2,702	5.77%
		Ral	7	19	151	151	2,929	5.16%
	Total		17	57	441	441	10,705	4.12%
Prey for Devil	T-2	Jax	5	14	21	21	1,485	1.41%
		Phx	4	11	18	18	1,476	1.22%
		Ral	6	11	36	36	1,064	3.38%
	Total		15	36	75	75	4,025	1.86%

*BP new sales since T-26*

 

Prey for the Devil T-2 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .735x (882k)

 - Antlers - 1.25x (462k)

 - X - .843x (371k)

 - Firestarter - .843x (316k)

 - Men - .798x (337k)

 - The Invitation - 1.119x (868k)

 

One Piece T-9 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .583x (2.507m)

 

Black Panther T-16 comps

 - Black Widow - 3.285x (43.37m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.148x (33.3m)

 - DS2 (T-27) - .594x (21.376m)

 - NWH - .399x (19.96m)

[LonePirate]

4 hours ago, stripe said:

The gap between both embargos is huge... And reviews are very close to opening to really boost previews

More often than not, the closer review embargoes are to the release date, the worse the reviews are. An embargo date of the Tuesday of release week suggests the film is not going to receive the raves the first BP film received. Critical reception could very well be mixed if not worse.

[ZackM]

On 10/23/2022 at 11:37 PM, ZackM said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	1	6	18	9	17
Seats Added	54	2,004	1,658	1,530	1,536
Seats Sold	2,539	1,725	3,380	2,470	2,587
10/23/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,326	169,887	1,145,943	14.83%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	18	79	268	464
ATP
$17.21
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days
10/23/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	93	6,313	22,048	28.63%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	6	10	23
ATP
$17.60

 

First comps:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14
T-15
T-16
T-17
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	4	1	6	18	9
Seats Added	559	54	2,004	1,658	1,530
Seats Sold	2,670	2,539	1,725	3,380	2,470
10/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,330	172,557	1,146,502	15.05%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	17	82	271	473
ATP
$17.18
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
10/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	93	6,362	22,048	28.86%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	6	11	22
ATP
$17.59

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14
T-15
T-16
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

Edited October 25, 2022 by ZackM

[Cooper Legion]

20 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

More often than not, the closer review embargoes are to the release date, the worse the reviews are. An embargo date of the Tuesday of release week suggests the film is not going to receive the raves the first BP film received. Critical reception could very well be mixed if not worse.

MCU embargoes for big movies are the week of for spoilers reasons, simple as

[Maggie]

The first BP had its review embargo lifted Tuesday, February 6th. Movie premiered February 16 in the US. It was released in the UK on February 13th

Edited October 25, 2022 by Maggie

[Nikostar]

59 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

MCU embargoes for big movies are the week of for spoilers reasons, simple as

This.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Wakanda Forever Marcus T-17

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 885

Seats Sold: 16690/126192 (+604 in 2 days)

0.885x Thor 4 (25.67 million)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1489

Seats Sold: 14932/211210 (+810 in 2 days)

No exact comp for Friday yet as my first number for Thor 4 was actually T-15, when it had 11835 sold. 

[el sid]

4 hours ago, romeross said:

Did I understand that "Prey for the Devil" will have a higher box office OW than "The Invitation"? 

Maybe, maybe 😉. First let's see how strong  its presales are on Thursday or Friday, in my theaters and that of other members.

A horror movie about exorcism could be more niche and therefore have less walk-ups than The Invitation. OTOH the Conjuring universe is very successful as we know.

And the release date shortly before Halloween should of course help Prey for the Devil.

 

Today I didn't count. Tomorrow again.

[keysersoze123]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:52 PM, cmbbox2390 said:

I wonder how BPWF's presales are doing in Atlanta. The first one's biggest market besides LA and NY I think.

 

I have data from MTC1

Atlanta - 5405/24804 87192.65 159 shows

New York(city) - 9151/34503 206363.39 198 shows // Empire has sold 2207 tickets

Chicago - 3083/22559 50189.97  124 shows

Los Angeles -  8548/29804 186107.34 178 shows

 

These are great numbers for most movies. But not uber blockbuster level(Say NWH or even DS2). 

[jedijake]

wrong thread

Edited October 25, 2022 by jedijake

[Tinalera]

Black Panther 2

Nov 10/11 (T-16 Thurs, T-17 Fri)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	135	4703	28422	33125	0.1419
Fri	20	161	4012	38948	42960	0.0933

 

 

Comps

 

Thurs  (Comps for BA on an estimate of Black Adam OD in Canada of 1.5 million, if theres a different number let me know )

 

x 29.57 Black Adam (44 Million Cdn)

x .75 Thor 4 (3.7 million Cdn)

 

Fri

x 10.44 Black Adam (15.67 Million Cdn)

x 1.04 Thor 4 (5.13 Million Cdn)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/24/2022 at 5:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

777

3301

23.54%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

508

2758

18.42%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3573	188	32294	11.06%	15	225

 

AMCs sold	2148
Cinemarks sold	673
Regals sold	336
Harkins sold	416

 

0.522x Doctor Strange 2 T-17 (18.79M)

1.18x Batman T-17 (25.46M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

799

3301

24.20%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

526

2758

19.07%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3660	87	32294	11.33%	15	225

 

AMCs sold	2202
Cinemarks sold	682
Regals sold	347
Harkins sold	429

 

0.524x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (18.85M)

1.18x Batman T-16 (25.40M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/24/2022 at 5:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+3 days of sales]

 

T-17 Thursday(99 showings): 2362(+140)/29419

0.319x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (11.50M)

0.625x Batman T-17 (13.49M)

 

T-18 Friday(160 showings): 1327(+93)/45165

0.344x Doctor Strange MoM T-18 (18.80M)

1.15x Batman T-18 (40.32M)

 

T-19 Saturday(163 showings): 898(+164)/47913

0.419x Doctor Strange MoM T-19 (24.21M)

1.51x Batman T-19 (65.29M)

 

T-20 Sunday(140 showings): 188(+33)/42321

0.361x Doctor Strange MoM T-20 (14.03M)

1.61x Batman T-20 (54.86M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-16 Thursday(99 showings): 2413(+51)/29419

0.317x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (11.42M)

0.617x Batman T-16 (13.33M)

 

T-17 Friday(160 showings): 1380(+53)/45165

0.340x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (18.63M)

1.08x Batman T-17 (37.97M)

 

T-18 Saturday(163 showings): 937(+39)/47913

0.414x Doctor Strange MoM T-18 (23.96M)

1.57x Batman T-18 (68.13M)

 

T-19 Sunday(140 showings): 197(+9)/42321

0.365x Doctor Strange MoM T-19 (14.21M)

1.68x Batman T-19 (57.48M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/24/2022 at 5:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

 

T-17 Thursday(219 showings): 11865(+526)/30510 ATP: $16.10

0.773x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (27.81M)

1.66x Batman T-17 (29.29M, Thurs only)

 

T-18 Friday(327 showings): 12581(+858)/46457 ATP: $15.75

0.975x Doctor Strange MoM T-18 (53.38M)

1.87x Batman T-18 (65.30M)

 

T-19 Saturday(330 showings): 10813(+851)/47364 ATP: $15.35

0.814x Doctor Strange MoM T-19 (47.03M)

1.90x Batman T-19 (82.40M)

 

T-20 Sunday(319 showings): 5863(+547)/45087 ATP: $15.46

0.945x Doctor Strange MoM T-20 (36.74M)

2.56x Batman T-20 (87.33M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-16 Thursday(219 showings): 12029(+164)/30510 ATP: $16.11

0.770x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (27.73M)

1.66x Batman T-16 (29.28M, Thurs only)

 

T-17 Friday(327 showings): 12944(+363)/46457 ATP: $15.74

0.978x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (53.51M)

1.86x Batman T-17 (65.05M)

 

T-18 Saturday(330 showings): 11057(+244)/47364 ATP: $15.35

0.807x Doctor Strange MoM T-18 (46.64M)

1.83x Batman T-18 (79.09M)

 

T-19 Sunday(319 showings): 6080(+217)/45087 ATP: $15.42

0.941x Doctor Strange MoM T-19 (36.61M)

2.47x Batman T-19 (84.31M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Adam said:

Prey for the Devil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	48	3291	1.46%

 

Comp

0.511x of Escape Room 2 T-3 (613K)

1.714x of The Night House T-3 (446K)

0.842x of Antlers T-3 (312K)

0.238x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (166K)

0.649x of X T-3 (285K)

1.171x of Firestarter T-3 (439K)

0.762x of Men T-3 (322K)

0.857x of The Invitation T-3 (664K)

0.578x of Barbarian T-3 (492K)

Prey for the Devil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	60	5224	1.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.414x of Escape Room 2 T-2 (496K)

1.500x of The Night House T-2 (390K)

0.845x of Antlers T-2 (313K)

0.245x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (171K)

0.645x of X T-2 (284K)

1.034x of Firestarter T-2 (388K)

0.606x of Men T-2 (256K)

0.882x of The Invitation T-2 (684K)

0.454x of Barbarian T-2 (386K)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Adam said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	6385	42932	14.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 120

 

Comp

0.567x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-17 (28.34M)

1.405x of The Batman T-17 (30.36M)

0.694x of Dcotor Strange 2 T-17 (25M)

1.304x of Thor 4 T-17 (37.81M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	6500	42932	15.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 115

 

Comp

0.515x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-16 (25.75M)

1.394x of The Batman T-16 (30.12M)

0.695x of Doctor Strange 2 T-16 (25.01M)

1.282x of Thor 4 T-16 (37.19M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	30450	37024	6574	17.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

146

T-17 Comp

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.67		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	31.13%		24.00m
L&T	108.95		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	38.76%		31.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1561/11835  [13.19% sold]
Matinee:    316/4103  [7.70% | 4.81% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	30320	37024	6704	18.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

130

 

T-16 Comp

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.86		166	10027		0/351	32409/42436	23.63%		21117	31.75%		24.07m
L&T	108.06		170	6204		0/228	25396/31600	19.63%		16962	39.52%		31.34m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1616/11835  [13.65% sold]
Matinee:    316/4103  [7.70% | 4.71% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/25/2022 at 9:33 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-16	Jax	6	128	327*	1,815	18,561	9.78%
		Phx	6	125	247*	1,463	18,513	7.90%
		Ral	8	120	407*	2,353	14,882	15.81%
	Total		20	373	981*	5,631	51,956	10.84%
BP2 DF	T-16	Jax	2	2	25*	122	198	61.62%
	Total		2	2	25*	122	198	61.62%
One Piece	T-9	Jax	5	24	134	134	5,074	2.64%
		Phx	5	14	156	156	2,702	5.77%
		Ral	7	19	151	151	2,929	5.16%
	Total		17	57	441	441	10,705	4.12%
Prey for Devil	T-2	Jax	5	14	21	21	1,485	1.41%
		Phx	4	11	18	18	1,476	1.22%
		Ral	6	11	36	36	1,064	3.38%
	Total		15	36	75	75	4,025	1.86%

*BP new sales since T-26*

 

Prey for the Devil T-2 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .735x (882k)

 - Antlers - 1.25x (462k)

 - X - .843x (371k)

 - Firestarter - .843x (316k)

 - Men - .798x (337k)

 - The Invitation - 1.119x (868k)

 

One Piece T-9 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .583x (2.507m)

 

Black Panther T-16 comps

 - Black Widow - 3.285x (43.37m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.148x (33.3m)

 - DS2 (T-27) - .594x (21.376m)

 - NWH - .399x (19.96m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-15	Jax	6	128	72	1,887	18,561	10.17%
		Phx	6	125	20	1,483	18,513	8.01%
		Ral	8	120	84	2,437	14,882	16.38%
ATP: 14.71*	Total		20	373	176	5,807	51,956	11.18%
BP2 DF	T-15	Jax	2	2	3	125	198	63.13%
	Total		2	2	3	125	198	63.13%
One Piece	T-8	Jax	5	24	11	145	5,074	2.86%
		Phx	5	14	4	160	2,702	5.92%
		Ral	7	19	11	162	2,929	5.53%
ATP: 14.24	Total		17	57	26	467	10,705	4.36%
Prey for Devil	T-1	Jax	5	16	13	34	1,681	2.02%
		Phx	6	16	9	27	1,726	1.56%
		Ral	7	13	1	37	1,404	2.64%
ATP: 12.51	Total		18	45	23	98	4,811	2.04%

*ATP is using opening prices.  I've noticed Regal prices have jumped by $1+ per show, but not sure how to account for that with so many sales at previous price*

 

Prey for the Devil T-1 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .653x (784k)

 - Antlers - 1.34x (497k)

 - X - .721x (317k)

 - Firestarter - .883x (331k)

 - Men - .76x (321k)

 - The Invitation - .933x (723k)

 

One Piece T-8 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .567x (2.44m)

 

Black Panther T-15 comps

 - Black Widow - 3.244x (42.82m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.15x (33.35m)

 - DS2 (T-27) - .6x (21.61m)

 - NWH - .373x (18.63m)

 - Batman - 2.08x (36.63m)

[filmlover]

Just noticed The Bad Guys is coming back to a bunch of theaters for the afternoon this weekend. Random heh.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Tar T-2: 12.24% Awareness, 4.29 Interest

Till T-2: 28.01%, 5.52

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-16: 59.97%, 6.76

Bones and All T-28: 15.79%, 4.97

Devotion T-28: 20.09%, 5.02

Indiana Jones 5 T-247: 37.18%, 6.14

 

Prey for the Devil T-2: 30.27% Awareness, 5.50 Interest

Comps (All Final): Don't Breathe 2 w/ 30.47% Awareness & 4.94 Interest, The Night House w/ 18.09% & 5.17, Candyman w/ 38.61% & 4.67, The Black Phone w/ 40% & 5.94

*Note that Prey for the Devil's Final numbers are subject to change*

 

Final General Awareness: 26% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 86% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Awareness: 31% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Interest: 100% chance of double-digit opening

 

Babylon T-58: 25.45% Awareness, 5.05 Interest

Comps (All T-60): Respect w/ 31.6% Awareness & 5.65 Interest, Elvis w/ 25.92% & 4.91, Bullet Train w/ 27.2% & 5.69, Ticket to Paradise w/ 24.96% & 5.27

 

T-60 General Awareness: 47% chance of double-digit opening, 20% chance of 20M

General Interest: 80% chance of double-digit opening, 61% chance of 20M

Original - High Awareness: 75% chance of double-digit opening, 50% chance of 20M

Original - High Interest: 55% chance of double-digit opening, 33% chance of 20M