The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

HE CONFESSED.

 

6 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

 

[Cmasterclay]

Avatar 2 isn't going to be frontloaded whatsoever IMO, the fact that it is doing as well as it is portends some great things.

[GOGODanca]

T-23 (1 day of presales) AMC Check for Avatar 2:

 

892 tickets sold

 

728 PLF  (35 showtimes)

52 3D.    (67 showtimes)

112 2D.   (36 showtimes)

 

1.93x Black Adam (4 days of presales/T-18) =$14.7m

 

0.28x Black Panther 2 (9 days of presales/T-29) = $7.9m

 

T-24 (Friday) Check

 

571 tickets sold

 

393 PLF (49 showtimes)

68 3D    (74 showtimes)

110 2D   (42 showtimes)

 

At one of these locations it showed 1 more PLF totally sold out (skeptical) and 4 3D shows sold out (99.99% this is an error), didn't include them in above numbers but will check again to make sure

Edited November 23, 2022 by GOGODanca

[Cap]

3 hours ago, Borobudur said:

I believe the so-called 3D resistance is just the result of lack of 3D push from Disney/20th century in its early marketing push.

Trust me, it’s not. 😂

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Borobudur said:

I believe the so-called 3D resistance is just the result of lack of 3D push from Disney/20th century in its early marketing push. The 'Experience it in 3D" tagline only appear in its last trailer was the whole A2 was made for 3D from the start. 

 

20 minutes ago, Cap said:

Trust me, it’s not. 😂

 

I say this with the proviso that I was already impressed with the relative strength of 3D sales last night locally, as well as saying that once the film is released it's possible if not probable that folks will overwhelmingly choose 3D showings as WOM spreads.

 

...

 

But I got to tell ya, I'm ALSO super tempted to start posting this:

 

 

whenever I hear these sorts of discussions about 3D (when it comes to the DOM market).

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Porthos

[el sid]

Avatar: The Way of Water, counted today at 8am EST for Thursday, December 15:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 129 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 340 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 16 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 487 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 723 (21 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.719.

Comps: Dune (5.1M from previews) had also after ca. 1 day on sale 1.038 sold tickets = 1.655 = 8.45M. Dune had great presales so that number for Avatar 2 looks worse than it is.
 

SC (8.8M) had on Monday of its release week 2.561 sold tickets = 67% at the moment with plenty of time left to comfortably overtake, namly 20 days.

JWD (18M) had also on Monday of its release week 3.214 sold tickets = 53.5% at the moment with 20 days left for Avatar 2 to overtake. Should be no problem at all.

And Uncharted had with 15 days left till the release 454 sold tickets = x3.79 = 14M at the moment for Avatar 2 with 8 days left to increase the margin.

 

Was it a good start in my theaters? I think yes, but honestly I expected (even) more.
 

[filmlover]

Variety Thanksgiving 5-day:

Strange World: $30-40M

Devotion: $7-8M

The Fabelmans: $5M

Bones and All: $6-8M

Glass Onion: $6-8M

 

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/black-panther-strange-world-thanksgiving-box-office-estimates-1235438896/

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Cap said:

Trust me, it’s not. 😂

 

I agree - while I don't track presales, I took a gander at my Cinemarks, one which has no PLF and one that does, but both offering "3d" showings...the normal 3d showings across both theaters have sold 4 tickets total between them for Thursday night...while the lowly 2d showings have sold more (even though there are only 5 total 2d shows listed across both theaters).

 

The PLF 3d has done the best...but I gotta think these theaters are gonna cry if they can't convert some of these crappy 3d shows to 2d shows last minute, or at least by the Monday after open.  PLFs might stay 3d, but nothing else will...there is definite pushback on paying the price for 3d (especially at Cinemark where it's not included for subscribers), if you're not also getting DOLBY (Or IMAX or another PLF type experience)...

Edited November 22, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Flamengo81]

I definitely don't want to preach how people should watch a movie and all... but that being said, I just don't get at all someone wanting to watch Avatar in 2D, it removes a really significant part of what makes this specific movie so special. It's a whole other movie and theater experience in 3D.

[Potiki]

4 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I definitely don't want to preach how people should watch a movie and all... but that being said, I just don't get at all someone wanting to watch Avatar in 2D, it removes a really significant part of what makes this specific movie so special. It's a whole other movie and theater experience in 3D.

Some people have problems with 3D (vision, headaches etc.) or just dislike the format. 

 

I will be seeing it both ways probably and will likely watch in 3D my first time but I don't fault anyone who either can't or doesn't want to watch in 3D. 

[Eric is Anxious]

1 minute ago, Flamengo81 said:

I definitely don't want to preach how people should watch a movie and all... but that being said, I just don't get at all someone wanting to watch Avatar in 2D, it removes a really significant part of what makes this specific movie so special. It's a whole other movie and theater experience in 3D.

I have sensitive eyes and 3D can strain them. Thankfully I don't have a worse condition compared to most, but I still don't like putting myself through that.

 

Plus, and I'll be frank here, the "you have to experience it in 3D" isn't the selling point you think it is. If anything, you're making the movie sound worse. That unless you watch a movie in a specific way on a specific format, the film is lesser and you lose what made it special...well, that's basically code for the movie sucking. Plus, pretty unfair for everybody who didn't have the time to see Avatar, were too young to see Avatar in its initial release, or don't have 3D TVs with them.

 

And before you ask, I have seen Avatar in both 2D and 3D. IMAX 3D no less, since that was the only good time for me to see the movie on its re-release. And frankly, the 3D was cool, but I didn't think I gained anything from seeing it this way. I loved it just fine in 2D because I could still enjoy the amazing visuals and compelling story just fine.

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I definitely don't want to preach how people should watch a movie and all... but that being said, I just don't get at all someone wanting to watch Avatar in 2D, it removes a really significant part of what makes this specific movie so special. It's a whole other movie and theater experience in 3D.

 

The thing is, as I said, I'm actually impressed with the level of 3D sales here given that, in the DOM market at least, there is a level of hostility to the format here.  IMO from observation, at least.

 

The US market just doesn't like the format right now.  Maybe it's backlash from crappy 3D movies.  Maybe it's backlash from a sense of 3D being "forced down our throat" during the height of the 3D craze last decade when prime viewing times/screens were given to the format and folks just didn't want it.  Maybe it's just long standing cultural baggage dating back all the way to the 50s.

 

Maybe it's none of the above.

 

But I think it's telling that 3D TVs utterly bombed here (which as an aside probably didn't help with the whole perception of 3D in the States).

 

So when I hear folks say "Disney should really emphasize the point that A2 is in 3D as that will really help sales!!!!" I would simply respond by saying "that would be certainly be a choice" on Disney's part.  Much like I have been saying with most of their marketing about A2, really.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The thing is, as I said, I'm actually impressed with the level of 3D sales here given that, in the DOM market at least, there is a level of hostility to the format here.  IMO from observation, at least.

 

The US market just doesn't like the format right now.  Maybe it's backlash from crappy 3D movies.  Maybe it's backlash from a sense of 3D being "forced down our throat" during the height of the 3D craze last decade when prime viewing times/screens were given to the format and folks just didn't want it.  Maybe it's just long standing cultural baggage dating back all the way to the 50s.

 

Maybe it's none of the above.

 

But I think it's telling that 3D TVs utterly bombed here (which as an aside probably didn't help with the whole perception of 3D in the States).

 

So when I hear folks say "Disney should really emphasize the point that A2 is in 3D as that will really help sales!!!!" I would simply respond by saying "that would be certainly be a choice" on Disney's part.  Much like I have been saying with most of their marketing about A2, really.

 

Now I want to make something ***VERY*** clear.  It is 100% possible and maybe even likely that "Wow an actual great movie in 3D" could indeed be a selling point for A2.  But I am of the strong belief that this will only really take off due to WOM post-release simply because there is that much resistance to the 3D format in the DOM market.

 

I could also be wrong about this.  But as I look at the difference of initial PLF sales between an extremely PLF heavy film like Dune and one that should be like A2... Well, it's absolutely the most likely answer.

 

Also, I 100% agree with @TwoMisfits that chains are shooting themselves in the foot with so many standard non-PLF 3D showings.  It's one thing to decide to go whole hog and see A2 in 3D on a PLF screen.  But if one just wants to watch A2 as a film and doesn't care as much about PLF screens/biggest baddest way to see it and is going for a normal sized screen, then having so many non-PLF screens be 3D is... Well it's my current phrase, but it's certainly a choice.

 

(I will also add that they might not have a choice if it is being mandated by Disney/Cameron)

 

Finally, there is cost consideration, especially in a tightening economy.  PLF surcharges are already one thing.  So too are 3D surcharges.  If folks want to see A2 but don't want to have to pay surcharges especially if they are taking a family as those surcharges add up in a hurry.  Well... having a good amount of 2D showings makes sense.  

Edited November 22, 2022 by Porthos

[filmlover]

IMAX/PLF screens only have so much time and so much auditorium space, meaning plenty of people wanting to see Avatar 2 on the big screen will be forced to see it in other formats if they want to check it out on the big screen unless they want to wait until a later date (likely after the holidays are over, in this case). Given that we're talking about an over 3 hour movie here, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if there were a lot of people who just don't want to wear those uncomfortable glasses for that long and are fine seeing it in regular 2D.

Edited November 22, 2022 by filmlover

[GOGODanca]

Any chance those 3d showings could be replaced by PLF shows?

 

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Also, I 100% agree with @TwoMisfits that chains are shooting themselves in the foot with so many standard non-PLF 3D showings.  It's one thing to decide to go whole hog and see A2 in 3D on a PLF screen.  But if one just wants to watch A2 as a film and doesn't care as much about PLF screens/biggest baddest way to see it and is going for a normal sized screen, then having so many non-PLF screens be 3D is... Well it's my current phrase, but it's certainly a choice.

 

(I will also add that they might not have a choice if it is being mandated by Disney/Cameron)

I am like 80% sure this was a Disney mandate (one 2D screen, unless location doesn’t have 3D capability) for at least the initial pre-sales push. I expect the 2D screens & shows to grow closer to release 

 

… and if they don’t (or not by much), well then that certainly is a choice, and we’ll see how it play outs 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I am like 80% sure this was a Disney mandate (one 2D screen, unless location doesn’t have 3D capability) for at least the initial pre-sales push. I expect the 2D screens & shows to grow closer to release 

 

… and if they don’t (or not by much), well then that certainly is a choice, and we’ll see how it play outs 

 

That's definitely going to be where we will know if this is going to do the thing again.  

 

If the demand is such that it sells everything available out, then we know it's the real deal.  If there isn't enough demand and either 3D or 2D struggles to fill up, we might have a better idea what is going to happen.

[XXR & Friends]

21 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Any chance those 3d showings could be replaced by PLF shows?

 

No. PLF is a specific format and you can’t just convert a regular screen or auditorium into one on a whim.

[ringedmortality]

24 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

No. PLF is a specific format and you can’t just convert a regular screen or auditorium into one on a whim.

 

Tell that to my local Cinemark who turned their second biggest auditorium into an XD theater by just adding a couple of extra speakers

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strange World	T-0	Jax	5	20	32	59	1,973	2.99%
		Phx	7	23	43	85	2,994	2.84%
		Ral	8	18	19	44	2,043	2.15%
	Total		20	61	94	188	7,010	2.68%

 

Strange World T-0 comps

 - Lightyear - .109x (535k)

 - Encanto - .416x (624k)

 - Sonic 2 - .107x (534k)

 - Sing 2 - .048x (388k)

 

Really picked up last night.  Expecting another great day heading into previews.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strange World	1-Hr	Jax	5	20	85	144	1,973	7.30%
		Phx	7	23	11	96	2,994	3.21%
		Ral	8	18	45	89	2,043	4.36%
	Total		20	61	141	329	7,010	4.69%

 

Strange World T-1 hr comps

 - Lightyear - .133x (649k)

 - Encanto - .465x (698k)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Sing 2 - missed

All PG movies - 696k

All animated movies - 797k

All movies - 700k

 

Gonna go with a safe 700k prediction.  Hopefully can break out a little though.