The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

On 11/23/2022 at 9:21 AM, M37 said:

Day 2 update:

 

 

A bit of weaker sales day than I had expected (though a later sample taken for Day 1 than other trackers). Some general thoughts:

• Good day for non-PLF 3D on relative basis, selling as many tickets as PLF 3D (albeit with 3x the showings) and more than double the standard shows. Have to wait to see if its a one day blip, or start of trend
• Sales so far are pretty concentrated in the ~6P-8P time frame, even for non-PLF. Have a feeling that the long running time is going to discourage late evening (>9PM) Thursday sales, pushing more people into Friday/the weekend and boosting the IM. (TGM similar had weak late hour sales due to older audience, and Batman also had a long running time/somewhat softer late sales). As much as we generally dislike the preview creep time, wondering if 2PM might have made more sense for this title than 3PM
• Mentioned this before, but Thanksgiving break likely to mess with typical ticket-buying patterns vs comps, and don't think we'll have a good sense of trajectory until maybe around T-14, if not T-11 (and surely the discussion until then will reflect that uncertainty and not make sweeping assertions about weaker sales ...)

 

T-21 Update:

 

Not much change here in the overall picture, still a very strong preference for PLF, but changed the second graph to show that on a per show basis, standard 3D and 2D are basically selling in equal amounts. (Now there are more than ~2x as many 3D shows, so overall 3D sales are 2x the standard 2D)

Also did a spot check for Friday, and did find that despite the continued ~2x ratio in shows, sales are much closer: 231 3D vs 201 2D

 

One other thought to add: along with the PLF preference, there continues to be a strong skew towards the prime evening ~6P-830P time, which in some cases does appear to be affecting sales patterns, with the massive running time limiting which options are available during that window. While I have my suspicions (biases?), am curious to see how tickets sales redistribute once those PLF and prime evening shows are filled up: that is, how much of demand is just pushed to less desirable shows/formats vs rolled forward to ensuing days?

[Eric Onion]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-babylon-and-i-wanna-dance-with-somebody/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/25/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
12/2/2022	Emancipation			Apple Original Films
12/2/2022	Quintessential Quintuplets Movie			Crunchyroll / Sony
12/2/2022	Violent Night	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$21,000,000 – $42,000,000	Universal Pictures
12/9/2022	Empire of Light (Limited)			Searchlight Pictures
12/9/2022	Father Stu: Reborn	$500,000 – $1,500,000	$1,000,000 – $3,750,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
12/9/2022	Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies (Expansion; Limited Dec. 2)			Focus Features
12/9/2022	The Whale (Platform)			A24
12/16/2022	Avatar: The Way of Water	$135,000,000 – $175,000,000	$475,000,000 – $720,000,000	Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022	Puss In Boots: The Last Wish	$12,000,000 – $18,000,000	$85,000,000 – $122,000,000	Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
12/21/2022	The Whale (Expansion)			A24
12/23/2022	Babylon	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	$18,000,000 – $39,000,000	Paramount Pictures
12/23/2022	I Wanna Dance With Somebody	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$65,000,000 – $115,000,000	Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures

[jedijake]

How does the fact that AV2 is selling SO many more PFL (3D, IMAX) than anything else tell us about it's long haul success?

[snarkmachine]

Babylon opening under $10m is very yikes.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/18/2022 at 9:14 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Black Panther 2	3,492	139,924	-23.31%	111,425	813.91	28,499	3,900	17,901
Black Adam	2,869	33,827	-15.08%	33,757	202.11	70	3	0
The Menu	2,830	45,234		45,163		71	0	0
Ticket to Paradise	2,729	33,648	-13.07%	33,573	152.44	75	0	0
The Chosen Season 3	1,970	22,999		22,990		9	0	0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	1,980	15,863	-8.82%	15,857	183.98	6	0	0
She Said	1,863	26,575		26,562		13	0	0
Smile	1,343	10,431	-42.43%	10,419	128.88	12	0	0
Prey for the Devil	1,236	9,918	-48.08%	9,912	101.28	6	0	0
The Banshees	697	6,527	-35.38%	6,503	163.36	24	0	0
Till	597	3,180	-61.27%	3,177	74.00	3	0	0
Spirited	582	8,285		8,273		12	0	0
One Piece Film: Red	480	3,098	-87.90%	3,098	56.54	0	0	0
GdT's Pinocchio	410	4,742		4,725		17	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 11/18 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

The Menu - 45,234 (2,830 TC)

 - Invitation - 43,127 (2,655)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

She Said - 26,575 (1,863 TC)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 - Redeeming Love - 25,146 (1,836)

 - King's Daughter - 26,909 (1,830)

Spirited - 8,285 (582 TC)

 - Mouthful of Air - 9,282 (782)

 - Belfast - 7,577 (516)

 - Summer of Soul - 7,766 (696)

The Chosen Season 3 - 22,999 (1,970 TC)

 - MHA - 23,963 (1,504)

 - RRR - 20,636 (1,181)

 

T-1 Week 3-Day Showtimes Comps
Devotion - 15,281 (1,334 TC)

Bones and All - 15,213 (1,310 TC)

 - MHA 14,978 (1,364)

 - Memory - 14,955 (1,210)

 - Men - 14,289 (1,082)

Strange World - 31,574 (1,946 TC)

 - Paws of Fury - 31,294 (2,060)

 - Bob's Burgers Movie - 30,287 (2,109)

Glass Onion - 7,407 (617 TC)

 - Umma - 6,971 (506)

 - Mrs Harris - 7,844 (572)

Fablemans - 4,808 (437 TC)

 - Cyrano - 5,263 (471)

 - Crimes of the Future - 5,257 (402)

 

T-1 Week 5-Day Showtimes Comps
Devotion - 33,478 (2,025 TC)

Bones and All - 30,681 (1,863 TC)

 - Father Stu - 29,612 (2,001)

 - Matrix - 46,330 (2,657)

Strange World - 64,162 (2,768 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 57,601 (2,797)

Glass Onion (11/22 Midnight) - 37 (37 TC)

Glass Onion - 12,377 (624 TC)

Fablemans - 8,571 (529 TC)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

 - Marry Me - 3,771 (1,845)

I Heard the Bells - 1,097 (976 TC)

 - Belle - 1,289 (786)

 - Case for Heaven - 1,013 (954)

 

T-5 Weeks Showtimes Comps

Puss in Boots (11/26 EA) - 992 (992)

Puss in Boots (OD) - 8,245 (1,761 TC)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Black Panther 2	3,441	84,061	-39.92%	68,682	475.13	15,379	3,709	6,732
Strange World	3,406	71,743		61,838		9,905	0	7,399
The Menu	2,766	35,365	-10.49%	35,308	199.07	57	0	0
Devotion	2,500	30,341		29,915		426	0	0
Bones and All	2,409	28,849		28,801		48	0	0
She Said	1,813	21,138	-8.50%	21,127	83.42	11	0	0
Black Adam	2,198	20,105	-40.57%	20,076	136.45	29	0	0
Ticket to Paradise	1,908	16,808	-50.05%	16,756	94.84	52	0	0
The Chosen Season 3	1,614	14,144	-38.50%	14,144	381.45	0	0	0
Glass Onion	637	11,414		11,414		0	0	0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	1,468	9,044	-42.99%	9,044	120.16	0	0	0
The Fabelmans	590	7,798		7,784		14	0	0
Spirited	568	5,775	-22.25%	5,764		11	0	0
Prey for the Devil	471	2,986	-69.89%	2,984	92.71	2	0	0
Smile	496	2,840	-72.77%	2,840	111.03	0	0	0
The Woman King	594	1,699		1,699		0	0	0
Puss in Boots (11/26 EA)	1,095	1,096		1,096		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 11/25 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

3-Day Showtimes Comps
Devotion - 30,341 (2,500 TC)

Bones and All - 28,849 (2,409 TC)

 - Stillwater - 28,558 (2,337)

 - Memory - 31,063 (2,233)

 - Men - 31,745 (2,100)

Strange World - 71,743 (3,406 TC)

 - Addams Family - 68,219 (3,204)

 - Bad Guys - 67,781 (3,297)

Glass Onion - 11,414 (637 TC)

 - Watcher - 10,477 (732)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

Fablemans - 7,798 (590 TC)

 - Belfast- 7,577 (516)

 

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Bones and All	2,384	45,531		45,448		83	0	0
Strange World	3,347	105,995		90,981		15,014	0	11,143
Devotion	2,483	49,384		48,596		788	0	0
Glass Onion	636	16,665		16,665		0	0	0
Fabelmans	589	11,375		11,355		20	0	0

 

5-Day Showtimes Comps
Devotion - 49,384 (2,483 TC)

Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384 TC)

 - King's Man - 56,129 (2,800)

 - Matrix - 65,705 (3,054)

Strange World - 105,995 (3,347 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 91,663 (3,331)

Glass Onion - 16,665 (636 TC)

Fablemans - 11,375 (589 TC)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Violent Night (EA) - 25 (25)

Violent Night - 29,124 (2,108)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

I Heard the Bells - 4,407 (1,028 TC)

 - Belfast - 3,960 (326)

 - Fabelmans - 4,808 (437)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Spoiler Alert - 554 (353 TC)

 - Blacklight - 679 (309)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Avatar 2 - 18,177 (2,595 TC) (11,037 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 20,170 (2,554) (2,697 PLF)

 - JW3 - 19,486 (2,624) (5,056 PLF)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Puss in Boots (11/26 EA) - 1,096 (1,095)

Puss in Boots (OD) - 9,182 (1,961 TC)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 - TG2 - 8,786 (822)

I Wanna Dance With Somebody - 3,570 (1,220 TC)

 - Easter Sunday - 2,853 (1,085)

 - Father Stu - 3,871 (1,325)

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2

Calgary AB

Thurs Dec 15 (taken Nov 25)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	8	36	350	6731	6954	0.0503

 

Seats sold from previous +127 seats (3 days prior)

[XXR & Friends]

@Legion By Night The Deadline vs Katniss Chosen TC count aint mathing. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/23/2022 at 9:05 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Puss Boots (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	4	9	85	366	23.22%
		Phx	5	5	16	107	488	21.93%
		Ral	6	6	20	81	757	10.70%
	Total		15	15	45	273	1,611	16.95%

 

Puss in Boots EA T-3 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .411x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.11x (1.4m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Puss Boots (EA)	T-1	Jax	4	4	66	151	366	41.26%
		Phx	5	5	56	163	488	33.40%
		Ral	6	6	108	189	757	24.97%
	Total		15	15	230	503	1,611	31.22%

 

Puss in Boots EA T-1 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .527x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.324x (1.68m)

 - Lightyear EA - 3.672x (2.2m)

 

Still looking great!  Don't have time for the others today

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

@Legion By Night The Deadline vs Katniss Chosen TC count aint mathing. 

If deadline reported a complete falsehood and I get rekt on it that will be the funniest outcome

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

If deadline reported a complete falsehood and I get rekt on it that will be the funniest outcome

 

Seems to be the case. Katniss' tracking can't count something that isn't there 🤯

[ky02121]

1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

Babylon opening under $10m is very yikes.

Blame that god awful trailer 

[GOGODanca]

Can the barbie hype overcome the combined poison of Margot and Gosling?

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

Babylon opening under $10m is very yikes.

Its grosses will be spread out due to the holidays but the mixed reviews, a concept that's limited in appeal (movies about Hollywood and/or making movies have always struggled at the box office, something we're already seeing this fall from the low grosses for The Fabelmans and She Said), and a crazy long runtime means a breakout is not in store.

 

Also doesn't look like Puss in Boots or Whitney are headed for actual breakouts either even if neither does poorly. Legend Cameron better deliver.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Can the barbie hype overcome the combined poison of Margot and Gosling?

 

Depends on what you mean by "overcome". I maintain that it's being vastly overpredicted. 

[filmlover]

Unless Barbie has an utterly insane budget (Gerwig doesn't seem like the kind of filmmaker who would go vastly overbudget), I think a $30-35M/$120-$140M run would be considered really good in everyone's books. It's clearly being positioned as late summer counterprogramming for females (especially moms/daughters), not as a 4-quad tentpole or anything where it needs to make a billion to turn a profit.

Edited November 25, 2022 by filmlover

[keysersoze123]

On 11/23/2022 at 3:59 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Avatar way of water MTC2 previews - 27418/475435 445314.56 3017 shows

 

No projection from this one but looking at MTC1 I am feeling good about 20m+ previews and 150m+ OW. Let us wait until closer to release to have more accurate projection. 

Avatar Way of the water MTC2 previews(T - 21) - 32483/478836 524564.10 3031 shows

 

Good growth for about day and half of data. 

[Eric Onion]

13 hours ago, DAJK said:

Hey team, I know I haven’t been as active in this thread lately as I used to be, but that’s mostly due to school taking up so much of my time the last couple of months and just not posting as much on the forums lately.

 

I’ve had access to numbers at various different theatres since 2015 due to my time working at a movie theatre. More recently I had bigger access to numbers across most of Canada as I moved up from working just as a concessionist. And even though I don’t work for a theatre anymore, I still had access to some regional data due to how their website works with seating charts that remain available even after the show starts. And since I’ve collected data on these regional theatres going back a decade, I was able to get some really good comps for each new release.

 

However, unfortunately the company has completely redesigned its website, and so not only do I not have access to all the new data I’ve had for all these years from working at theatres, but I won’t have access to regional data anymore, since the seating chart has been changed and updated and no longer remains available after the show has started. So after this weekend, I won’t be able to provide data as often or with as consistent comparisons as I used to.

 

I still have friends who work at theatres who can provide me with data on some of the bigger releases once in a while (because they know how important tracking this stuff is for me) but other than occasional pieces of data that I can share here, this seems like it is going to be the end of an era for me and my contributions to this thread. I will still post what info I have here whenever I can, but I won’t have numbers as consistently and across as many different markets to get a more general sense of how a movie is trending. 
 

It sucks not having the same access and outlets I’ve had for nearly a decade, but I want to thank everybody in this thread for the amazing work you all do! This thread has come a long way ever since 2015/16 when I started posting “comparison data” from my local theatre, and started to collect data and build comps. Seeing how this has transformed box office tracking, and how many people have really taken to using local metrics to make insanely accurate predictions is amazing. I’m so glad to have been a part of, arguably, one of the best box office tracking programs on the internet (if not the best  ) and I hope to contribute in any way I can moving forward.

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/23/2022 at 4:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

325

2354

13.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

226

1774

12.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1355	201	24555	5.52%	15	161

 

AMCs sold	869
Cinemarks sold	186
Regals sold	175
Harkins sold	125

 

0.390x Thor L&T T-22 (11.32M)

0.933x Jurassic World 3 T-22 (16.79M)

1.62x Eternals T-22 (15.43M)

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

405

2354

17.20%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

275

1774

15.50%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1654	299	24555	6.74%	15	161

 

AMCs sold	1068
Cinemarks sold	228
Regals sold	210
Harkins sold	148

 

0.433x Thor L&T T-20 (12.55M)

1.07x Jurassic World 3 T-20 (19.32M)

0.868x Top Gun 2 T-20 (16.71M)

1.69x Eternals T-20 (16.07M)

Edited November 25, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/23/2022 at 4:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-22 Thursday(108 showings): 1440(+212)/25833

0.471x Thor L&T T-22 (13.66M)

1.33x Jurassic World 3 T-22 (24.00M)

 

T-23 Friday(156 showings): 1227(+286)/37765

0.838x Thor L&T T-23 (33.96M)

1.25x Jurassic World 3 T-23 (51.99M)

 

T-24 Saturday(154 showings): 1268(+255)/39553

1.82x Thor L&T T-24 (76.72M)

1.87x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (87.68M)

 

T-25 Sunday(175 showings): 448(+127)/44851

2.35x Thor L&T T-25 (76.23M)

2.99x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (115.29M)

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-20 Thursday(108 showings): 1754(+314)/25833

0.513x Thor L&T T-20 (14.87M)

0.941x Top Gun 2 T-20 (18.12M)

 

T-21 Friday(156 showings): 1550(+323)/37765

0.901x Thor L&T T-21 (36.52M)

0.849x Top Gun 2 T-21 (32.28M)

 

T-22 Saturday(154 showings): 1690(+422)/39553

2.04x Thor L&T T-22 (85.95M)

1.64x Top Gun 2 T-22 (62.35M)

 

T-23 Sunday(175 showings): 652(+204)/44851

2.56x Thor L&T T-23 (83.10M)

3.47x Top Gun 2 T-23 (127.28M)

[Porthos]

@Eric Clade

 

Have you been including the EA shows tomorrow on your Puss In Boots: The Last Wish track?  Took a quick look locally and much like Sing 2, looks to be a very healthy amount of sales.