The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

Average chart with data through T-5.  While the main average line is bouncy depending on which data points are updated each day, there is definitely some downward motion in last few days, particularly as compared to TGM. Might add another average line (for Batman) as a lower bound given the recent trends (though that title had IMO an odd sales pattern, both by timing/pace and market distribution)

 

 

 

just eyeballing that graph it looks like it's going to converge on $17m

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

just eyeballing that graph it looks like it's going to converge on $17m

 

Which would be a lackluster tally. OW almost certainly below $150M if that does end up being the previews number. 

 

I'm gonna stick to $20M. 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

just eyeballing that graph it looks like it's going to converge on $17m

Keep in mind that some of those data points include an adjustment for a higher ATP, but many don’t, and so may understate the actual $ value. And there really isn’t a great comp, so difficult to be precise 

 

My working Thursday number has been ~$18M for a little while now (for which everyone yelled at me!), precisely because I was expecting a softer ramp up in the final week, though these last two days may prove to be an aberration once we get to the home stretch (and review embargo is lifted). And there is plenty of data that suggests both a higher IM and PLF demand continually being rolled forward to produce good legs overall. Avatwo doesn’t need a $20M+ preview to still make a whole lot of money, but do think some projections have gotten ahead of the actual data in hand

[wboxoffice]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Unfortunately I don't have any presales data for TWK, I took most of September off from tracking.

 

Cool thanks...

 

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-4	Jax	5	84	117	1,615	11,195	14.43%
		Phx	7	92	134	1,238	13,532	9.15%
		Ral	8	73	92	1,409	8,765	16.08%
	Total		20	249	343	4,262	33,492	12.73%
Babylon	T-11	Jax	5	12	-1	15	1,380	1.09%
		Phx	4	13	2	26	1,357	1.92%
		Ral	8	17	5	33	1,618	2.04%
	Total		17	42	6	74	4,355	1.70%
I Wanna Dance	T-11	Jax	5	15	2	26	1,454	1.79%
		Phx	4	13	6	27	1,277	2.11%
		Ral	9	25	14	51	2,579	1.98%
	Total		17	53	22	104	5,310	1.96%
M3GAN	T-25	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	2	8	1,327	0.60%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	2	23	4,902	0.47%
Puss in Boots	T-10	Jax	6	31	2	22	3,261	0.67%
		Phx	6	29	2	16	3,388	0.47%
		Ral	6	33	11	51	3,865	1.32%
	Total		18	93	15	89	10,514	0.85%

 

Avatar 2 T-4 comps

 - Eternals - 1.726x (16.39m)

 - TG2 - .845x (16.32m)

 - JW3 - missed

 - F9 - 3.43x (24.38m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.308x (22.03m)

 - NTTD - 4.29x (22.32m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Dune - missed

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.42m

 - JW3 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 

Puss in Boots T-10 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .211x (1.05m)

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Lyle Lyle - 6.36x (3.66m)

 - Super Pets - 2.07x (4.55m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

Babylon T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

M3GAN T-25 comps

 - Nope - .117x (751k)

 

(Not much to go on)

 

I guess that's a good update for I Wanna Dance?  Maybe they are starting to do more promo and people are starting to find out more about the movie...

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Which would be a lackluster tally. OW almost certainly below $150M if that does end up being the previews number. 

 

I'm gonna stick to $20M. 

just a friendly reminder that Avatar was very lackluster in its opening weekend in the US, and soared over the holidays. I expect the same pattern here. Yes, it’s a sequel, but looooong overdue, which I think negated the usual rush factor of sequels.

[Nikostar]

I just hope people keep their expectations under control for A2. The last thing we need is doom and gloom because it did not hit some of those unrealistic expectations.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Nikostar said:

I just hope people keep their expectations under control for A2. The last thing we need is doom and gloom because it did not hit some of those unrealistic expectations.

on the contrary, the last thing we want is everyone to claim it was shocking and unexepected when Avatar 2 makes 3 billies.

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

just eyeballing that graph it looks like it's going to converge on $17m

17m is too low imo. Besides the final 2 (or 3) days are very important for presales, let's see how that goes (especially when reviews start coming out). 

 

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

just a friendly reminder that Avatar was very lackluster in its opening weekend in the US, and soared over the holidays. I expect the same pattern here. Yes, it’s a sequel, but looooong overdue, which I think negated the usual rush factor of sequels.

The first one was a new ip and people did not known fully what to expect. It is not the same case now, people already know about Avatar and know what to expect going into the movie. Ticket booking habits have also changed a lot from 2009 to 2022, people likely pre book a lot more now which allows us to have magnitudes more data than we had in 2009 to make predictions. 

 

3 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

I just hope people keep their expectations under control for A2. The last thing we need is doom and gloom because it did not hit some of those unrealistic expectations.

Happens with every big movie. It will happen not just with the OW but each day of its run (especially towards the beginning) with people going from jubilation to dooming and back again every single day

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2

Toronto, Ontario

Dec 15 and 16 (Taken Dec 11)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	10	96	2981	20337	23828	0.1251
Fri	10	81	4003	16361	20362	0.1965

 

Thurs + 685 seats sold

Fri +1139 seats sold

[interiorgatordecorator]

are domestic ow plf's close to maxing out?

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

are domestic ow plf's close to maxing out?

 

No

[JustLurking]

Dunno why people still insist Avatar's OW was lackluster considering it had like the biggest OW for an original film, 2nd biggest december OW and probably would've taken highest there too if it hadn't been been for the weather.

[GOGODanca]

Curious when new showtimes will be added, the 10 locations I'm looking at have only 15-18 at each theater,, BP2 was between 25-35 2 weeks before release 

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Dunno why people still insist Avatar's OW was lackluster considering it had like the biggest OW for an original film, 2nd biggest december OW and probably would've taken highest there too if it hadn't been been for the weather.

Probably because it wasn’t even in the top 25 OWs at the time?   
 

It wasn’t like, *tiny*, but not a really big OW either

[JustLurking]

Just now, Legion By Night said:

Probably because it wasn’t even in the top 25 OWs at the time?   
 

It wasn’t like, *tiny*, but not a really big OW either

I mean, yeah, but that is simply the circumstances of it being an original film. It has nothing to do with it being weak or lackluster. For what the film was, opening was excellent.

[Porthos]

55 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

are domestic ow plf's close to maxing out?

 

54 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

No

 

To give more context:

 

Locally at least, only the prime viewing slots (6pm to 8pm) on Thursday have very strong sales for PLF showings.

 

Here's the local independent TrueIMAX theater:

 

IMAX			
3:00 (3D)	95	388	24.48%
7:00 (3D)	246	388	63.40%

 

Here is Century Arden [one of the best selling theaters in the region]:

 

Arden			
3:00 (3D)	105	271	38.75%
7:15 (3D)	174	271	64.21%
11:30 (3D)	42	271	15.50%

 

And the other high profile theaters with PLF screens locally:

 

Natomas			
3:00 (4DX)	37	140	26.43%
7:25 (4DX)	95	140	67.86%
11:50 (4DX)	8	140	5.71%

Greenback			
3:00 (3D)	56	175	32.00%
7:20 (3D)	125	175	71.43%
11:35 (3D)	13	175	7.43%

El Dorado			
3:00 (3D)	71	209	33.97%
7:25 (3D)	124	209	59.33%
11:50 (3D)	3	209	1.44%

Blue Oaks			
3:00 (3D)	53	101	52.48%
7:15 (3D)	70	101	69.31%
11:30 (3D)	7	101	6.93%

Doco			
3:00 (3D)	67	215	31.16%
7:20 (3D) 	136	215	63.26%
11:35 (3D)	19	215	8.84%

Delta Shores			
3:00 (3D)	52	218	23.85%
7:20 (3D) 	121	218	55.50%
11:40 (3D)	7	218	3.21%

Cen Laguna			
3:00 (3D)	36	167	21.56%
7:10 (3D)	90	167	53.89%
11:20 (3D)	5	167	2.99%

Roseville
3:00 (3D)	59	205	28.78%
7:15 (3D)	127	205	61.95%
11:30 (3D)	18	205	8.78%

 

Pattern is pretty clear, with minor variations.

(not including the low trafficked/late arriving theaters on purpose)

 

What **IS** maxing out are DBOX showtimes.  But with the exception of the theater that has a 4DX screen (which I don't put in the DBOX section for reasons), the number of seats we're talking about is negligible:

 

Palladio			
6:30 (3DBOX)	9	14	64.29%
10:35 (3DBOX)	4	14	28.57%
			
Cen Laguna			
3:45 (3DBOX)	21	27	77.78%
5:15 (3DBOX)	17	31	54.84%
7:55 (3DBOX)	23	27	85.19%
9:25 (3DBOX)	10	31	32.26%
			
Roseville			
3:00 (3DBOX)	20	20	100.00%
7:15 (3DBOX)	20	20	100.00%
11:30 (3DBOX)	19	20	95.00%
4:00 (3DBOX)	8	13	61.54%
8:15 (3DBOX)	11	13	84.62%
3:30 (BOX) 	7	12	58.33%
7:45 (BOX) 	11	12	91.67%

 

So there is plenty of room for growth (the 3pm-ish showtimes, for instance, are getting more sales), but not at the most convenient times/seats.

 

(more thoughts in a mo, but I want to make them a separate post)

Edited December 11, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

To give more context:

 

Locally at least, only the prime viewing slots (6pm to 8pm) on Thursday have very strong sales for PLF showings.

 

Here's the local independent TrueIMAX theater:

 

IMAX			
3:00 (3D)	95	388	24.48%
7:00 (3D)	246	388	63.40%

 

Here is Century Arden [one of the best selling theaters in the region]:

 

Arden			
3:00 (3D)	105	271	38.75%
7:15 (3D)	174	271	64.21%
11:30 (3D)	42	271	15.50%

 

And the other high profile theaters with PLF screens locally:

 

Natomas			
3:00 (4DX)	37	140	26.43%
7:25 (4DX)	95	140	67.86%
11:50 (4DX)	8	140	5.71%

Greenback			
3:00 (3D)	56	175	32.00%
7:20 (3D)	125	175	71.43%
11:35 (3D)	13	175	7.43%

El Dorado			
3:00 (3D)	71	209	33.97%
7:25 (3D)	124	209	59.33%
11:50 (3D)	3	209	1.44%

Blue Oaks			
3:00 (3D)	53	101	52.48%
7:15 (3D)	70	101	69.31%
11:30 (3D)	7	101	6.93%

Doco			
3:00 (3D)	67	215	31.16%
7:20 (3D) 	136	215	63.26%
11:35 (3D)	19	215	8.84%

Delta Shores			
3:00 (3D)	52	218	23.85%
7:20 (3D) 	121	218	55.50%
11:40 (3D)	7	218	3.21%

Cen Laguna			
3:00 (3D)	36	167	21.56%
7:10 (3D)	90	167	53.89%
11:20 (3D)	5	167	2.99%

Roseville
3:00 (3D)	59	205	28.78%
7:15 (3D)	127	205	61.95%
11:30 (3D)	18	205	8.78%

 

Pattern is pretty clear, with minor variations.

(not including the low trafficked/late arriving theaters on purpose)

 

What **IS** maxing out are DBOX showtimes.  But with the exception of the theater that has a 4DX screen (which I don't put in the DBOX section for reasons), the number of seats we're talking about is negligible:

 

Palladio			
6:30 (3DBOX)	9	14	64.29%
10:35 (3DBOX)	4	14	28.57%
			
Cen Laguna			
3:45 (3DBOX)	21	27	77.78%
5:15 (3DBOX)	17	31	54.84%
7:55 (3DBOX)	23	27	85.19%
9:25 (3DBOX)	10	31	32.26%
			
Roseville			
3:00 (3DBOX)	20	20	100.00%
7:15 (3DBOX)	20	20	100.00%
11:30 (3DBOX)	19	20	95.00%
4:00 (3DBOX)	8	13	61.54%
8:15 (3DBOX)	11	13	84.62%
3:30 (BOX) 	7	12	58.33%
7:45 (BOX) 	11	12	91.67%

 

So there is plenty of room for growth (the 3pm-ish showtimes, for instance, are getting more sales), but not at the most convenient times/seats.

 

(more thoughts in a mo, but I want to make them a separate post)

 

There's also one other thing that really needs to be stressed and hasn't been brought up much this year.

 

One of the reasons legs are so good this time of year is that people are effin' busy and they have more time off than usual.  So instead of rushing out to see something ASAP, they'll work it around their holiday schedule.  Add in a lack of must-see-it-now factor that other recent December blockbusters have and we get something of an explanation as to what's going on.

 

To put it in simpler terms:  

1. There is clear interest in this film.  It wouldn't be having the level of pre-sales it has if it really was No One Cares.
2. The level of interest isn't SO great as to get a large amount of sales at aisle/neck crane seats/late night showtimes.
3. There is interest in 3D but it is still a limiting factor, perhaps related to point 2 — that is, if I'm gonna shell out for 3D I want a good seat/convenient time.
4. Holiday buying patterns are spreading sales.

 

Now I don't believe we've had much of a rigorous look at post-OW/Xmas Day sales as some years past ("NOT IT", BTW).  But it wouldn't surprise me to see that there are good sales at the various PLF showtimes, especially on Xmas Day.

 

On the other hand, this might just be another WOM film in the States.  Wouldn't be the first time for a James Cameron film.  Time will certainly tell, and fairly soon at that.

Edited December 11, 2022 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

There's also one other thing that really needs to be stressed and hasn't been brought up much this year.

 

One of the reasons legs are so good this time of year is that people are effin' busy and they have more time off than usual.  So instead of rushing out to see something ASAP, they'll work it around their holiday schedule.  Add in a lack of must-see-it-now factor that other recent December blockbusters have and we get something of an explanation as to what's going on.

 

To put it in simpler terms:  

1. There is clear interest in this film.  It wouldn't be having the level of pre-sales it has if it really was No One Cares.
2. The level of interest isn't SO great as to get a large amount of sales at aisle/neck crane seats/late night showtimes.
3. There is interest in 3D but it is still a limiting factor, perhaps related to point 2 — that is, if I'm gonna shell out for 3D I want a good seat/convenient time.
4. Holiday buying patterns are spreading sales.

 

Now I don't believe we've had much of a rigorous look at post-OW/Xmas Day sales as some years past ("NOT IT", BTW).  But it wouldn't surprise me to see that there are good sales at the various PLF showtimes, especially on Xmas Day.

 

On the other hand, this might just be another WOM film in the States.  Wouldn't be the first time for a James Cameron film.  Time will certainly tell, and fairly soon at that.

Speaking from up North, from what I am seeing, there are increasing sales, but right now I think the bulk of presales has happened (well probably until Wed When Cineplex releases final seat inventory lol). General gist I get (at least in my area), is that yea people want to see it, but theres no (at least not yet) push that they HAVE to see it opening weekend. A couple of instances where people are expecting a huge open weekend crush, and theyd rather wait until post Xmas to check it out to fit it in their schedule. I do think we will see a spread out from Xmas to New Years of people going to see the film up here. 

[Old Spice]

Sunday Dec 9th Salt Lake Valley update for Avatar 2: The Way of Water.

 

Preview Night:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non-PLF) 174 (+30)

Cinemark Draper XD 254 (+32)

Cinemark Farmington XD 313 (+32)

Total Tix Sold: 741 (+94), increase of 14.5% from two days ago.

 

Current A2 presales as a % of FINAL presale:

Nope 246%

Black Adam 200%

B.P. Wakanda 60.7%

 

Current A2 presales as a % of FINAL presale, Sugarhouse only:

Elvis 183%

JW: Dominion 47.8%

The Batman 41.3%

Thor: L&T 34.8%

 

Still chugging along. Anecdotally, I was talking to some folks in my supers crowd today and none of them are going on preview night. But every single one was planning to see this over the holidays, with several having already purchased tickets for Christmas Day. If that's typical, those Black Adam and Wakanda comps look even more impressive with four days still to go.

[Stewart]

7 minutes ago, A Star is Delayed said:

Still chugging along. Anecdotally, I was talking to some folks in my supers crowd today and none of them are going on preview night. But every single one was planning to see this over the holidays, with several having already purchased tickets for Christmas Day. If that's typical, those Black Adam and Wakanda comps look even more impressive with four days still to go.

 

This is my thinking, with this being 3 hours +, preview night might inevitably be deflated for other days when people have the time. They will definitely watch it, but there's no spoiler rush to overcome, so why inconvenience yourself for Thursday?

 

I think internal multiplier for this might be shocking compared to other hits this year. And then of course after the weekend we hit holiday period with people off work, where all bets are off as to just how high it flies when every day is a Saturday.