The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric S'ennui]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Dammit! Why isn't this movie picking up steam like I want it to? I see ads for it everywhere and WOM is spectacular.

Inflation. Costs an arm and a leg to take your family to the movies these days, and we're in a busy time when Christmas shopping is more expensive than ever. No point taking the kids to the theater when you can watch something on Netflix for free. Besides, it'll be on PVOD in a few weeks anyways.

 

This is true for everything (I'd argue Avatar's suffering from inflation woes too, especially with the whole "YOU HAVE TO SEE IT ON THE BIGGEST SCREEN EVER" mantra the fanboys keep pushing on people), but this is especially true for kids movies. Sad but true.

[Eric S'ennui]

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	218	7119	3.06%

 

Comp

7.517x of Respect T-3 (4.89M)

0.924x of Candyman T-3 (1.75M)

0.231x of Nope T-3 (1.48M)

2.018x of Beast T-3 (1.87M)

0.717x of The Woman King T-3 (1.22M)

[Eric S'ennui]

On 12/19/2022 at 12:16 AM, Eric The Last Airbender said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	35	5433	0.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.700x of The Conjuring 3 T-18 (6.86M)

0.144x of Scream T-18 (504K)

0.135x of Nope T-18 (861K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	36	5433	0.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.654x of The Conjuring 3 T-17 (6.42M)

0.145x of Scream T-17 (506K)

0.137x of Nope T-17 (876K)

[Alex SciChannel]

53 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Inflation. Costs an arm and a leg to take your family to the movies these days, and we're in a busy time when Christmas shopping is more expensive than ever. No point taking the kids to the theater when you can watch something on Netflix for free. Besides, it'll be on PVOD in a few weeks anyways.

 

This is true for everything (I'd argue Avatar's suffering from inflation woes too, especially with the whole "YOU HAVE TO SEE IT ON THE BIGGEST SCREEN EVER" mantra the fanboys keep pushing on people), but this is especially true for kids movies. Sad but true.

That doesn't make sense. At least not all of it. Inflation is lower than it was in the summer and then it was hit after hit. And the family holiday PVOD doesn't add up because Sing 2 was super successful the same window.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[krla]

25 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

That doesn't make sense. At least not all of it. Inflation is lower than it was in the summer and then it was hit after hit. And the family holiday PVOD doesn't add up because Sing 2 was super successful the same window.

Inflation being lower just means costs are increasing, but not as quickly. But when you take into account the breakneck inflation of the past year or two, even 'lower' inflation is going to bite into the pocket book. Also, most inflation relief has been fuel prices dropping, but other costs have continued to increase at, or above, the summer rate. Food in particular. Interest rates rising is also hurting people. Don't know how American mortgages are, but in Canada they are 5 year terms, and tons of people are getting hit by sky high rates that are basically doubling their mortgage payment. I feel bad for the people who are currently blissfully unaware of rate hikes, and will end up facing a real shock when they have to renew. I wish 25-30 year fixed mortgages were a thing in Canada.

[romeross]

10 hours ago, el sid said:

I Wanna Dance with Somebody, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, Dec 22:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 31 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 55 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 30 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 138.

 

Hello. Do you please have stats for "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish"?  Grand thanks

[Eric S'ennui]

5 hours ago, krla said:

Inflation being lower just means costs are increasing, but not as quickly. But when you take into account the breakneck inflation of the past year or two, even 'lower' inflation is going to bite into the pocket book. Also, most inflation relief has been fuel prices dropping, but other costs have continued to increase at, or above, the summer rate. Food in particular. Interest rates rising is also hurting people. Don't know how American mortgages are, but in Canada they are 5 year terms, and tons of people are getting hit by sky high rates that are basically doubling their mortgage payment. I feel bad for the people who are currently blissfully unaware of rate hikes, and will end up facing a real shock when they have to renew. I wish 25-30 year fixed mortgages were a thing in Canada.

This.

 

Price hikes almost everywhere are crazy. And between food and Christmas presents and a possible recession on the horizon, movie tickets are not the big priority on people's minds, especially families trying to save money. A basic family of 4 is very expensive depending on where you live just on the base price alone. And while hard economic times is usually good for the movies, that argument doesn't mean much in a streaming world.

[TwoMisfits]

13 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local - the non PLF set for Dec 21 and 23 today...

 

Since the weekend drop for Avatar is being considered, I will say this local is dropping showings and 1 of the large theater size to the smallest size.  For now, here's their set...

 

Avatar - 3.5 screens/13 showings - 9 3d/4 2d (down from 20) - largest theater and 2.5 smallest size theaters (dropped the other largest for a smallest and the other was also reduced to smallest 60 seater) - so, probably about 40%ish-45%ish seat loss - don't make me do Math, but this has no PLF, so it's crappy 3d and probably didn't do well last weekend (its presales are pretty poor for Tuesday/Wednesday)...

 

For the rest:

Puss - 2 screens (12 showings - 11 2d / 1 3d) - it gets the other largest screen

Babylon - 2 screens (but 1 is smallest size)

Whitney - 1 screen

Violent Night - 1 screen

Wakanda - 1 screen

 

Still an open screen and a half...Devotion and Elf had those Wednesday and get dropped Friday, so we'll see if they hold for presales (and parcel them to the booked movies) or if they are booking a foreign film or two (they had none last weekend, which is unusual)...Spirited, Strange World, and Black Adam were dropped for the Wednesday set...

 

Edit to ADD: Oh, and I guess I should look at Saturday, and not just Friday, since Saturday has Xmas Eve show drop - Avatar will have 10 showings on Xmas Eve before going back to 13 on Xmas.  So, probably about 25% less sellable seats than Friday and Sunday, since it drops 1 of 4 large showings (and then 2 tiny ones)...

 

 

1st local set for Friday - this has the PLF and went with 9 screens and 27 showings OW

 

Avatar - 5 screens - 15 showings - 6 XD 3d, 8 3d, ONE 2d at 11:30am - not a misprint - my 2 Cinemarks obviously are balancing the 2d demand, and sending folks who don't care about quality to the other - this one kept the biggest screen, the 2 XDs, and then average screens, so it obviously got more folks OW b/c it is the PLF theater.  Still probably a 35-40% loss in possible seats Fri/Sun (and Sat is 10 showings, so knock another 30% off Saturday)

 

For the rest

Puss - almost 2 screens (9 showings - 1 3d/8 2d) - biggest and midsize

Babylon - 2 screens

Whitney - 1 screen+ (also gets the last showing on the 2nd Puss screen)

Violent Night - 1 screen+ - gets an extra 1st showing of the day from a foreign film's screen

Wakanda - 1 screen

The Whale - 1 screen

Foreign Films - .75 screen

 

PS - Strange World, Menu, and It's A Wonderful Life are here on Wed, but dropped by Friday for the new movies...Spirit and Devotion are dropped after today...

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-3	Jax	5	13	3	27	1,430	1.89%
		Phx	7	20	2	64	2,037	3.14%
		Ral	8	18	4	61	1,666	3.66%
	Total		20	51	9	152	5,133	2.96%
I Wanna Dance	T-3	Jax	5	15	3	62	1,454	4.26%
		Phx	7	22	9	51	2,503	2.04%
		Ral	9	25	13	87	2,579	3.37%
	Total		20	62	25	200	6,536	3.06%
M3GAN	T-17	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	1	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	1	29	5,614	0.52%
Puss in Boots	T-2	Jax	6	60	45	133	6,668	1.99%
		Phx	6	54	24	63	7,034	0.90%
		Ral	7	56	46	184	6,688	2.75%
	Total		19	170	115	380	20,390	1.86%

 

Puss in Boots T-2 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .354x (1.77m)

 - Minions 2 - .327x (3.52m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 6.91x (3.97m)

 - Super Pets - 1.792x (3.94m)

 - Paw Patrol - .646x (2.92m)

 - Strange World - 6.33x (5.07m)
 - Sing 2 - .161x (1.307m)

 - Encanto - 1.57x (2.36m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Easter Sunday - 3.125x (1.56m)

 - Respect - 3.125x (2.03m)

 - House of Gucci - .909x (1.18m)

 - King Richard - 1.37x (2.66m)

 

Babylon T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Bullet Train - .35x (1.17m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.448x (796k)

 - Death on the Nile - .921x (1.013m)

 - Lost City - .557x (1.39m)

 

M3GAN T-17 comps

 - Nope - .104x (665k)

 - Black Phone - .439x (1.14m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-2	Jax	5	13	0	27	1,430	1.89%
		Phx	7	21	15	79	2,117	3.73%
		Ral	8	19	7	68	1,714	3.97%
	Total		20	53	22	174	5,261	3.31%
I Wanna Dance	T-2	Jax	5	15	15	77	1,454	5.30%
		Phx	7	25	28	79	2,841	2.78%
		Ral	9	25	20	107	2,579	4.15%
	Total		20	65	63	263	6,874	3.83%
M3GAN	T-16	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	0	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	0	29	5,614	0.52%
Puss in Boots	T-1	Jax	6	60	50	183	6,668	2.74%
		Phx	6	54	39	102	7,034	1.45%
		Ral	7	74	54	238	8,060	2.95%
	Total		19	188	143	523	21,762	2.40%

 

Puss in Boots T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .373x (1.86m)

 - Minions 2 - .303x (3.26m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 5.5x (3.16m)

 - Super Pets - 1.764x (3.88m)

 - Paw Patrol - .673x (3.04m)

 - Strange World - 5.55x (4.44m)
 - Sing 2 - .187x (1.52m)

 - Encanto - 1.68x (2.53m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .354x (1.132m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.922x (1.46m)

 - Respect - 3.7x (2.41m)

 - House of Gucci - .857x (1.11m)

 - King Richard - 1.26x (2.45m)

 

Babylon T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .234x (749k)

 - Bullet Train - .331x (1.11m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.392x (765k)

 - Death on the Nile - .853x (938k)

 - Lost City - .499x (1.25m)

 

M3GAN T-16 comps

 - Nope - .099x (636k)

 - Black Phone - .42x (1.09m)

[filmlover]

I think 2023 will be the real litmus test for animated/kids movies at the box office post-COVID since the product looks more appealing (The Super Mario Bros Movie, Spider-Man, Elemental, Wish). For now I'm just going to assume that this year's crop of underperformers (minus the obvious anomalies that were Sonic 2 and Minions that drew much more than families) weren't able to grab that demo for whatever reasons.

[AJG]

8 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Inflation. Costs an arm and a leg to take your family to the movies these days, and we're in a busy time when Christmas shopping is more expensive than ever. No point taking the kids to the theater when you can watch something on Netflix for free. Besides, it'll be on PVOD in a few weeks anyways.

 

 

BO pundits also overlook the more sentimental(?) effects of the pandemic. Kids grow up very quickly, a child that was 6 years old when the pandemic hit would've been 8 or 9 by time the pandemic was "over". A lot of opportunities have been missed and taking advantage of your couple of days off to catch up on travel, zoo trips, outdoor hobbies, museum trips etc, are far more important than going to the cinema.

[filmlover]

By the way, for those interested AMC has posted their Dolby Cinema schedule for most of the first half of the year (it's likely something else or two will get the format in April).

 

New Movies, Theaters Near You, Movie Tickets, Showtimes, Movie Trailers, Movies in Theaters (amctheatres.com)

 

2/3: Knock at the Cabin

2/10: Magic Mike's Last Dance

2/17: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

3/3: Creed III

3/10: 65, Scream VI (likely splitting showtimes)

3/17: Shazam! Fury of the Gods

3/24: John Wick: Chapter 4

3/31: Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

4/7: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

5/5: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3

5/19: Fast X

5/26: The Little Mermaid

6/2: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

6/9: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

6/16: Elemental, The Flash (likely splitting showtimes)

 

Not listed yet but confirmed via marketing:

 

6/30: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

7/14: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

7/21: Oppenheimer (since it's already confirmed for IMAX though one also has to imagine WB will try to get Barbie on some screens that weekend if it tracks big even if it means splitting showtimes)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Puss in Boots	N	40	127	127	4,724	2.69%	$12.21	$1,550.09
		Y	63	299	299	7,230	4.14%	$9.09	$2,716.51
	Total		103	426	426	11,954	3.56%	$10.02	$4,266.60
T-2	Babylon	N	10	26	26	679	3.83%	$12.27	$319.08
		Y	10	17	17	679	2.50%	$9.63	$163.69
	Total		20	43	43	1,358	3.17%	$11.23	$482.77
T-2	I Wanna Dance	N	20	48	48	1,714	2.80%	$12.41	$595.90
		Y	10	32	32	857	3.73%	$9.52	$304.66
	Total		30	80	80	2,571	3.11%	$11.26	$900.56

 

Puss in Boots T-1 comps

 - Minions 2 - .237x (2.55m)

 - Sonic 2 - .28x (1.39m)

 - Lightyear - .518x (2.54m)

 - Super Pets - 1.511x (3.32m)

 

Babylon T-2 comps

 - Bullet Train - .251x (842k)

 - Elvis - missed

 - Crawdads - .174x (348k)

 - Easter Sunday - .86x (430k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.536x (1.28m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-2 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Downton - .491x (515k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.6x (800k)

[titanic2187]

9 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Dammit! Why isn't this movie picking up steam like I want it to? I see ads for it everywhere and WOM is spectacular.

At this point it is just clueless what audience want to see. There are so many disappointments or flop in this second half, good or bad WOM alike. People always try to find attribute reason to all these underperformance but it isn't like we are compensated with some pleasant surprise hit. Streaming have killed too much, they first kill the TV and now there are moving to silver screen. 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-2	Jax	5	13	0	27	1,430	1.89%
		Phx	7	21	15	79	2,117	3.73%
		Ral	8	19	7	68	1,714	3.97%
	Total		20	53	22	174	5,261	3.31%
I Wanna Dance	T-2	Jax	5	15	15	77	1,454	5.30%
		Phx	7	25	28	79	2,841	2.78%
		Ral	9	25	20	107	2,579	4.15%
	Total		20	65	63	263	6,874	3.83%
M3GAN	T-16	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	0	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	0	29	5,614	0.52%
Puss in Boots	T-1	Jax	6	60	50	183	6,668	2.74%
		Phx	6	54	39	102	7,034	1.45%
		Ral	7	74	54	238	8,060	2.95%
	Total		19	188	143	523	21,762	2.40%

 

Puss in Boots T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .373x (1.86m)

 - Minions 2 - .303x (3.26m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 5.5x (3.16m)

 - Super Pets - 1.764x (3.88m)

 - Paw Patrol - .673x (3.04m)

 - Strange World - 5.55x (4.44m)
 - Sing 2 - .187x (1.52m)

 - Encanto - 1.68x (2.53m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .354x (1.132m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.922x (1.46m)

 - Respect - 3.7x (2.41m)

 - House of Gucci - .857x (1.11m)

 - King Richard - 1.26x (2.45m)

 

Babylon T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .234x (749k)

 - Bullet Train - .331x (1.11m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.392x (765k)

 - Death on the Nile - .853x (938k)

 - Lost City - .499x (1.25m)

 

M3GAN T-16 comps

 - Nope - .099x (636k)

 - Black Phone - .42x (1.09m)

Really solid growth rate for Puss in Booth the last 2 days across these markets, granted off low baseline, but still not being seen elsewhere

 

Best case might be trekking a path similar to Jumaji: Welcome to Jungle, which grossed $89M in first full week (including X-Mas and Boxing Day) and went on to a $400M+ total, but I'm not sure Puss can get to even $40M by next Tuesday with a sub-$4M opening day

[Legion Again]

Puss may have a small chance to do sub 10M OW, over 100M total. No idea what the last one of those was

Edited December 20, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Legion Again]

Oh, probably just Showman huh

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Puss may have a small chance to do sub 10M OW, over 100M total. No idea what the last one of those was

 

(same year as Jumanji - legs post Xmas were really strong once TLJ fell off 🤔)

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

At this point it is just clueless what audience want to see. There are so many disappointments or flop in this second half, good or bad WOM alike. People always try to find attribute reason to all these underperformance but it isn't like we are compensated with some pleasant surprise hit. Streaming have killed too much, they first kill the TV and now there are moving to silver screen. 

 

The Menu and Violent Night have arguably overperformed this holiday season. Plus we had a pretty good summer (and even first quarter of the year) with movies across various genres doing well. Sometimes it really does come down to product. I doubt many will be declaring animated movies dead all over a very untimely Puss in Boots sequel potentially underperforming.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 

(same year as Jumanji - legs post Xmas were really strong once TLJ fell off 🤔)

orange panther will rise.