The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, 3RIC said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	194	6237	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp

0.193x of The Conjuring 3 T-3 (1.89M)

0.182x of Halloween Kills T-3 (882K)

0.243x of Scream T-3 (850K)

0.521x of The Black Phone T-3 (1.56M)

0.610x of Smile T-3 (1.22M)

0.151x of Halloween Ends T-3 (816K)

Ah, that’s better. 
 

I’d be happy with high teens, but $20m+ would be a nice start to 2023. 

[Porthos]

Always dangerous to only have one real comp for a film locally, but I admit to being slightly curious and so...

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

 

371/5745 (6.46% sold) 

30.51% of Nope at T-3         (1.95m)

----

22.76% of Sonic 2 at T-3                           (1.42m)

19.48% of Minions 2 at T-3                       (2.09m)

31.52% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-3 (1.42m)

 

That's... not bad?  Especially considering the super long pre-sale period of Nope?  

 

Didn't do a Q&D of Halloween Ends and my Q&Ds of Scream were at T-1.5 and T-1, so don't have comps against that.  Don't really have anything else that should be as remotely walkup heavy (although, for shits and giggles, as noted the Minions 2 comp gives 2.09m).

 

Again, v v v dangerous to only comp against one movie, but it's not like I have much better.

 

Still...  Seen worse.

[TwoMisfits]

So, figured I'd post my locals again to give an idea of the weekend:  2nd local set early.

 

The one big thing - I thought my locals were both gonna open at 2pm on weekdays (which was their initial presale for M3gan - a change from their 10/11am open all fall and the holidays) - well, that changed to 3:45pm on the Friday presales at the 2nd local.  So, Friday may come in lower than expected with Saturday bumping more than expected if this trend is through all of Cinemark (to toss early weekdays for single shift non holiday weekday staffing)

 

 

2nd Local

M3gan - 2 screens - largest and smallest - 6 showings Friday, 10 showings Sat/Sun

Holdovers

Avatar - 4 screens - 6 3d, 1 2d Friday, 9 3d, 3 2d Sat/Sun

Puss - almost 2 screens - 1 3d, 3 2d Friday, 2 3d, 7 2d Sat/Sun

Whitney - 1 screen

Babylon - 1 screen

Violent Night - 1 screen

Black Panther - 1 screen

Foreign Film - last showing on Puss screen

 

Nothing dropped but foreign films.

[Deep Wang]

I am absolutely going this weekend and I have not yet bought my tickets, so clearly this is how everyone else is doing it and it's gonna make $40m+.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/23/2022 at 8:49 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M3GAN	T-13	Jax	5	20	1	8	1,758	0.46%
		Phx	5	13	0	11	2,039	0.54%
		Ral	7	14	2	14	1,817	0.77%
	Total		17	47	3	33	5,614	0.59%

 

M3GAN T-13 comps

 - Nope - .094x (603k)

 - Black Phone - .418x (1.09m)

 - Halloween Ends - .134x (721k)

 - Northman - .589x (796k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M3GAN	T-2	Jax	6	20	56	64	1,832	3.49%
		Phx	5	13	51	62	2,068	3.00%
		Ral	7	17	79	93	2,049	4.54%
	Total		18	50	186	219	5,949	3.68%

*New sales since T-13

 

M3GAN T-2 comps

 - Antlers - 3.65x (1.35m)

 - Nope - .212x (1.36m)

 - Black Phone - .684x (1.78m)

 - Candyman - 1.074x (2.04m)

 - Halloween Kills - .197x (954k)

 - Men - 2.33x (986k)

 - Northman - .62x (838k)

 - The Invitation - 3.27x (2.53m)

 - X - 2.461x (1.08m)

[Eric Prime]

I mean as others have said, New Year's and Christmas have distracted people from buying advanced tickets, at least for something that's coming in the new year. And horror movies aren't even pre-sales driven in the first place, which was shown in my Philly numbers last night. And even if we want to complain about how it's not "breaking out", a 20M+ opening is still really, really, really good for a totally original Blumhouse horror production and will make the film super profitable no matter what. Like The Black Phone and Smile opened in the 20s and they turned out just fine (yes, I know M3GAN won't leg out the same way as those movies did)

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Women Talking T-4: 12.1% Awareness, 4.44 Interest

A Man Called Otto T-11: 34.57%, 5.49

A Good Person T-81: 16.3%, 5.24

Elemental T-165: 29.26%, 5.34

Barbie T-200: 35.8%, 4.65

 

M3GAN T-4: 48.33% Awareness, 5.98 Interest

Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M, 52% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 26% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 83% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M and 40M

 

80 for Brady T-32: 20.03% Awareness, 4.57 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 71% chance of 5M, 29% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 33% chance of 5M, 17% chance of 10M

 

Knock at the Cabin T-32: 26.45% Awareness, 5.75 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 78% chance of 10M, 72% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

 

Creed III T-60: 46.5% Awareness, 6.09 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 62% chance of 50M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 50M

[charlie Jatinder]

As I said earlier, Megan is doing fine. Philly at times is an outlier, which make sense considering demographically its a lot different than national average.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

As I said earlier, Megan is doing fine. Philly at times is an outlier, which make sense considering demographically its a lot different than national average.

I agree. Phily tends to underperform for many movies. 

 

 

[CJohn]

I just M3gan to hit 20M+ OW.

[GOGODanca]

Quote

Industry estimates believe that Avatar 2‘s fourth weekend will be between $25M-$30M beating new wide release, Universal/Blumhouse’s PG-13 genre title M3GAN which is looking at $17M, despite tracking have that film higher in the lower $20Ms. Showtimes start Thursday at 5PM. Young females under 25 are the prime demo.

 

https://deadline.com/2023/01/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-new-years-2023-1235208802/

[el sid]

M3gan, counted 1 hour ago for Thursday, Jan 5:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 93 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 33 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (2 showtimes, 1 Sell Out reported, probably not true)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 84 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 117 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 341.

Up ok 24.5% since yesterday. I expect it to have around 450+ sold tickets tomorrow.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday which means M3gan has 1 day left): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 176 sold tickets,

Beast (925k) had 202

The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 168

The Invisible Man (1.65M) had 628
and Smile (2M) had 306 sold tickets.
Halloween Ends (5.4M from previews) had also on Tuesday 1.025 sold tickets.

M3gan, counted 1 hour ago for Friday, Jan 6:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 125 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 4 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): still no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 26 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 61 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 130 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 356.

Up good 44% since yesterday. Could be at ca. 500 sold tickets by tomorrow.
Comps (again all counted on Wednesday for Friday): The Invitation had 167 sold tickets,

Beast had 218,

Malignant had 167,

Old had 262

The Invisible Man had 628

and Smile had 399 sold tickets.

Scream had also on Tuesday 746 sold tickets.

Hopefully that trend continues.

[keysersoze123]

M3gan Previews

MTC1 - 12595/152393 182460.37 1095 shows

MTC2 - 6613/132031 81891.30 1026 shows

 

With good walkups I am thinking 2m+ previews will happen. 

[wboxoffice]

Will "Women Talking" expand this weekend as planned despite the low average in limited theaters?  What do you expect in terms of theater count and b.o. performance?

 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by wboxoffice

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, wboxoffice said:

Will "Women Talking" expand this weekend as planned despite the low average in limited theaters?  What do you expect in terms of theater count and b.o. performance?

 

 

Its wide expansion was pushed back to January 20, I believe.

[filmlover]

 

[Eric Prime]

On 1/2/2023 at 11:34 PM, 3RIC said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	194	6237	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp

0.193x of The Conjuring 3 T-3 (1.89M)

0.182x of Halloween Kills T-3 (882K)

0.243x of Scream T-3 (850K)

0.521x of The Black Phone T-3 (1.56M)

0.610x of Smile T-3 (1.22M)

0.151x of Halloween Ends T-3 (816K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	317	8900	3.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 123

 

Comp

0.210x of The Conjuring 3 T-2 (2.06M)

0.235x of Halloween Kills T-2 (1.14M)

0.297x of Scream T-2 (1.04M)

0.648x of The Black Phone T-2 (1.94M)

0.634x of Smile T-2 (1.27M)

0.222x of Halloween Ends T-2 (1.2M)

[Porthos]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

Always dangerous to only have one real comp for a film locally, but I admit to being slightly curious and so...

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

 

371/5745 (6.46% sold) 

30.51% of Nope at T-3         (1.95m)

----

22.76% of Sonic 2 at T-3                           (1.42m)

19.48% of Minions 2 at T-3                       (2.09m)

31.52% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-3 (1.42m)

 

That's... not bad?  Especially considering the super long pre-sale period of Nope?  

 

Didn't do a Q&D of Halloween Ends and my Q&Ds of Scream were at T-1.5 and T-1, so don't have comps against that.  Don't really have anything else that should be as remotely walkup heavy (although, for shits and giggles, as noted the Minions 2 comp gives 2.09m).

 

Again, v v v dangerous to only comp against one movie, but it's not like I have much better.

 

Still...  Seen worse.

 

Might as well keep it up...

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

494/6973 (7.08% sold) [+123 tickets]

31.89% of Nope at T-2       (2.04m)

---

23.57% of Sonic 2 at T-3                           (1.47m)

18.07% of Minions 2 at T-3                       (1.94m)

32.72% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-3 (1.47m)

[charlie Jatinder]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Might as well keep it up...

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

494/6973 (7.08% sold) [+123 tickets]

31.89% of Nope at T-2       (2.04m)

---

23.57% of Sonic 2 at T-3                           (1.47m)

18.07% of Minions 2 at T-3                       (1.94m)

32.72% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-3 (1.47m)

Porthos got bored sitting at fence lol

[DAJK]

Really hoping M3GAN can break out and hit 25M or so.