The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Will a ~24 hr check be possible from you or @ZackM? We can extrapolate around it okay enough but would be great to have on hand directly.

Yeah, I'll have a 24hr number.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Why are we using A2 comp for quantumania? Just asking.

 

I mean, I don't think it's a particularly good comp at all, especially because of its ATP.  At the same time @M37 is right about its pattern being more similar to a CBM than many thought initially, plus its preview number of 17m was a good target for recent-ish films.

 

Main reason I included it though wasn't as a comp but more so people could do some math in their heads (whether as an upper bound, or an average, or a geomean if we want to get all fancy like Legion) and use it as they see fit.  Also a full day of A2 sales versus a half day of AM3 sales might not have been the absolute worst comp.  Too high, as noted by M37?  Almost certainly.  But useful as part of some sort of weighted average?

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

my M37

[titanic2187]

I think Antman 3 shouldn't be just a $110m-$120m opener. Given the frontloaded of the MCU has become lately, I can't even remember when was the last time a MCU film drop less than 60% in 2nd weekend. a $120m could only means a $270m finish without a holiday boost like BP2 or summer weekdays for Thor 4. That is great for Antman series but a is a bit low for a movie that supposed to start lay the ground for next Avengers.  

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

keyboards are the worst. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think Antman 3 shouldn't be just a $110m-$120m opener. Given the frontloaded of the MCU has become lately, I can't even remember when was the last time a MCU film drop less than 60% in 2nd weekend. a $120m could only means a $270m finish without a holiday boost like BP2 or summer weekdays for Thor 4. That is great for Antman series but a is a bit low for a movie that supposed to start lay the ground for next Avengers.  

The Monday itself will help legs.

[GOGODanca]

the next avengers movie is still 2 years away, ant-man isn't gonna get the kind of boost that movies like BP and CM got from being right before their avengers movie, 270m domestically would be a 25% jump from 2 which is solid considering covid/streaming changing movie going and mixed reception of phase 4

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Knock at the Cabin T-18: 30.51% Awareness, 5.86 Interest

Creed III T-46: 48.04%, 6.04

Mafia Mamma T-88: 14.67%, 4.94

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-102: 14.67%, 4.82

Fast X T-123: 40.58%, 6.27

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-165: 35.34%, 6.1

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-305: 39.07%, 6.03

 

Missing T-4: 26.98% Awareness, 5.66 Interest

Final Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 72% chance of 10M

 

 

Champions T-53: 12.75% Awareness, 4.71 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 34% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 5M

Original - Low Interest: 54% chance of 5M, 18% chance of 10M

[el sid]

Missing, counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 41 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 9 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes yet
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 36 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 42 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 131.

Comps (both counted on Monday for Thursday): Crawdads had 122 sold tickets

and Barbarian had 156 sold tickets.

Missing, counted yesterday for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 46 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes yet
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes yet
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 30 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 26 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 110.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Crawdads (17.3M) had 87 sold tickets,

Barbarian (10.5M) had 70 sold tickets

and Last Night in Soho (4.2M) had 126 sold tickets.
 

Overall not so bad.
 

80 for Brady had also yesterday (with 17 & 18 days to go) 31 sold tickets for Thursday, Feb 2.
Comp: Ticket to Paradise had on Monday of the release week 58 sold tickets (with showtimes in 6 theaters).
For Friday, Feb 3, it had 11 sold tickets (also in 6 theaters).
Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week): Cry Macho (4.4M OW) had 17 sold tickets,

The Good Liar (5.6M) had 28 sold tickets

and Ticket to Paradise (16.5M) had 71 sold tickets.

Probably ok numbers so far.

Edited January 17, 2023 by el sid

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania 

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (no comps)

Vancouver BC Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	574	2918	3492	0.1643
	Fri	3	20	264	3492	3756	0.0702

 

 

Thought Id just do a couple of Vancouver theatres-hope you don't mind that @DAJK, I know this is your area.  Im not going to all of them as they come out, just getting a sampling of West to East. Just don't want to step on toes

 

As with Avatar am going to (try) and do an area a day (BC/Alberta/Ontario/Quebec/East Coast). There will be some days I inevitably miss, due to real life, but Ill get out as much as I can.

[el sid]

Knock at the Cabin, counted yesterday for Thursday, Feb 2 (17 days left):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 30 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 20 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes yet
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 50 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 62 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 167.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Invitation had 96 sold tickets,

Barbarian had 156,

The Forever Purge had 104,

Prey for the Devil had 115

and Smile had 213.

Knock at the Cabin, counted yesterday for Friday, Feb 3 (18 days left):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 45 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 25 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes yet
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 39 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 26 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 135.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): The Invitation had 87 sold tickets,

Old had 150 sold tickets,

Malignant had 100 sold tickets,

Prey for the Devil had 149

and Smile had 229.

Looks good.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

18-20m OW for Knock At the Cabin? Can it go higher once it's closer to release date (also factoring in walkups)

[Inceptionzq]

10 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

334

2587

12.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

252

3106

8.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1372	N/A	32222	4.26%	15	187

 

AMCs sold	1020
Cinemarks sold	167
Regals sold	88
Harkins sold	97

 

1.38x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (23.44M)

0.780x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (21.84M)

0.444x Thor L&T 24 hours (12.87M)

0.318x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (11.44M)

0.704x Batman 24 hours (15.21M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

413

2587

15.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

327

3106

10.53%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 10 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1694	322	32557	5.20%	15	189

 

AMCs sold	1249
Cinemarks sold	210
Regals sold	113
Harkins sold	122

 

1.47x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (24.95M)

0.795x Black Panther WF Day 1 (22.26M)

0.548x Thor L&T 24 hours (15.89M)

0.333x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (11.97M)

0.870x Batman 24 hours (18.78M)

[Inceptionzq]

9 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-30 Thursday(118 showings): 1026/34617

0.955x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (16.24M)

1.03x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (28.64M)

0.392x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (11.36M)

0.239x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (8.60M)

0.348x Batman 24 hours (7.52M)

 

T-31 Friday(178 showings): 364/53295

0.443x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (16.04M)

0.784x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (44.13M)

0.306x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (12.41M)

0.211x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (11.52M)

0.448x Batman 24 hours (15.67M)

 

T-32 Saturday(179 showings): 341/53862

0.413x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (18.31M)

1.84x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (103.28M)

0.688x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (28.97M)

0.456x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (26.35M)

0.955x Batman 24 hours (41.32M)

 

T-33 Sunday(172 showings): 59/51068

0.251x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (9.18M)

1.97x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (80.61M)

0.371x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (12.06M)

0.447x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (17.38M)

1.26x Batman 24 hours (42.86M)

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex [+10 hours of sales]

 

T-30 Thursday(118 showings): 1286(+260)/34617

1.05x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (17.80M)

0.944x Black Panther WF Day 1 (26.44M)

0.491x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (14.23M)

0.257x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (9.24M)

0.436x Batman 24 hours (9.43M)

 

T-31 Friday(181 showings): 508(+144)/53832

0.540x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (19.54M)

0.779x Black Panther WF Day 1 (43.85M)

0.427x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (17.31M)

0.228x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (12.50M)

0.625x Batman 24 hours (21.87M)

 

T-32 Saturday(182 showings): 444(+103)/54089

0.438x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (19.43M)

1.53x Black Panther WF Day 1 (85.88M)

0.895x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (37.70M)

0.446x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (25.80M)

1.24x Batman 24 hours (53.80M)

 

T-33 Sunday(176 showings): 113(+54)/51784

0.352x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (12.87M)

2.35x Black Panther WF Day 1 (96.16M)

0.711x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (23.10M)

0.601x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (23.38M)

2.40x Batman 24 hours (82.08M)

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

18-20m OW for Knock At the Cabin? Can it go higher once it's closer to release date (also factoring in walkups)

I'm hoping for higher given Shyamalan is a big name. We've seen original horrors open in that range without that so I would think Knock would open higher. Old opened to $16.9M in summer 2021 when we were still coming out of the pandemic too, which suggests $18M is the floor.

 

This of course isn't taking into account reviews and word of mouth. If they're bad then that's a different story.

[Inceptionzq]

9 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-30 Thursday(232 showings): 3604/33788

2.36x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (40.18M)

0.563x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (15.77M)

0.437x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (12.67M)

0.330x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (11.87M)

0.617x Batman Thurs only 24 hours (10.86M)

 

T-31 Friday(328 showings): 1833/48157

1.01x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (36.56M)

0.373x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (21.02M)

0.327x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (13.26M)

0.249x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (13.61M)

0.353x Batman 24 hours (12.36M)

 

T-32 Saturday(335 showings): 1537/49193

0.776x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (34.41M)

0.299x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (16.80M)

0.321x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (13.51M)

0.234x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (13.54M)

0.379x Batman 24 hours (16.39M)

 

T-33 Sunday(306 showings): 435/45387

0.530x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (19.40M)

0.336x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (13.77M)

0.185x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (6.01M)

0.191x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (7.41M)

0.295x Batman 24 hours (10.06M)

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse [+10 hours of sales]

 

T-30 Thursday(237 showings): 5840(+2236)/34519 ATP: $16.00

3.26x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (55.43M)

0.747x Black Panther WF Day 1 (20.91M)

0.708x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (20.54M)

0.481x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (17.31M)

0.999x Batman Thurs only 24 hours (17.59M)

 

T-31 Friday(331 showings): 3671(+1838)/48238 ATP: $15.80

1.73x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (62.63M)

0.569x Black Panther WF Day 1 (32.03M)

0.654x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (26.53M)

0.414x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (22.68M)

0.707x Batman 24 hours (24.75M)

 

T-32 Saturday(338 showings): 3344(+1807)/49274 ATP: $15.07

1.45x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (64.28M)

0.504x Black Panther WF Day 1 (28.28M)

0.698x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (29.37M)

0.396x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (22.89M)

0.824x Batman 24 hours (35.67M)

 

T-33 Sunday(306 showings): 1088(+653)/45387 ATP: $14.32

1.05x Avatar TWOW Day 1 (38.41M)

0.517x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (21.16M)

0.462x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (15.03M)

0.353x Doctor Strange MoM Day 1 (13.75M)

0.737x Batman 24 hours (25.17M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

10 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-30	Jax	6	91	191	488	15,860	3.08%
		Phx	6	85	201	479	15,027	3.19%
		Ral	7	86	219	426	11,228	3.79%
	Total		19	262	611	1,393	42,115	3.31%

 

Ant-Man 3 comps (against 24hr sales)

 

 - NWH - .089x (4.47m)

 - Black Widow - 2.594x (34.24m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .232x (8.35m)

 - Thor 4 - .413x (11.97m)

 - Eternals - 1.826x (17.34m)

 - BP2 - .459x (12.855m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.424x (24.21m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.402x (21.24m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.338x (25.83m)

 - JW3 - 1.401x (25.23m)

 

Here's a breakdown of the sales by format.

Movie	Type	Tickets	Sales	ATP
Ant-Man 3	BigD	104	$1,601.09	15.40
	D-Box	33	$836.03	25.33
	Dolby	348	$6,177.80	17.75
	IMAX	125	$2,308.04	18.46
	RealD 3D	142	$2,360.15	16.62
	RPX	5	$81.10	16.22
	Standard	499	$6,261.21	12.55
	XD	137	$2,297.81	16.77
Ant-Man 3 Total		1,393	$21,923.23	15.74

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-30	Jax	6	91	143	631	15,860	3.98%
		Phx	6	85	146	625	15,027	4.16%
		Ral	7	86	190	616	11,228	5.49%
	Total		19	262	479	1,872	42,115	4.44%

 

First 24 hours!  ATP starts at $15.68.

 

Comps

- NWH (33hrs) - .12x (6.01m)

 - Black Widow - 3.486x (46.02m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .312x (11.23m)

 - Thor 4 - .555x (16.085m)

 - Eternals - 2.453x (23.308m)

 - BP2 - .617x (17.28m)

 - Avatar 2 (22hrs) - 1.914x (32.54m)

 - Shang-Chi - 3.228x (28.4m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.798x (34.71m)

 - JW3 - 1.883x (33.9m)

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Thought Id just do a couple of Vancouver theatres-hope you don't mind that @DAJK, I know this is your area. 

You two should street fight. Winner gets Vancouver 

[ZackM]

24hr numbers for AMatW:Q at Alpha

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	4,565
Seats Added	859,653
Seats Sold	88,502
1/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	433	4,565	88,502	859,653	10.30%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	12	60	144
ATP
$18.46

[Tinalera]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You two should street fight. Winner gets Vancouver 

 I imagine I'd get whipped pretty quickly.....my er.....younger days are long behind me lol