The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

What's your prediction for CREED III?

Honestly haven’t been following closely, but data in here would seem to support $40M+, though I won’t be surprised if it falls below that or gets to $50M+ 🤷‍♂️

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Honestly haven’t been following closely, but data in here would seem to support $40M+, though I won’t be surprised if it falls below that or gets to $50M+ 🤷‍♂️

 

Okay. I have it between those figures in the derby. 😅

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

John Wick: Chapter 4 had today (after ca. 24hours?) 755 sold tickets for Thursday, Mar 23. 21 days left.
Comps (all counted after ca. 24-48 hours): Black Phone had 95 sold tickets,
Whitney Houston had 68,
Beast had 53,
M3gan had 56
and Matrix 4 had 1.409 sold tickets (with 15 days left). Matrix 4 had a really good start in my theaters but pretty poor jumps till its release date. One week later, with 8 days left, it were only 1.875 sold tickets.
To have at least one action film comp, Angel has Fallen (1.5M from previews) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 459 sold tickets.

And for Friday, Mar 24, John Wick: Chapter 4 had 440 sold tickets. 22 days left.
Comps: Black Phone had 34 sold tickets,
Beast had 27,
WH had 40,
M3gan had 43,
no Matrix comp here.
Angel Has Fallen finally (= on Thursday for Friday, 21.4M OW, nice walk-ups) had 446 sold tickets. Till then, JW4 should at least have 3-4x the presales of today.

I think that was a very good start.

[Krissykins]

16 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Scream 5 had 3,664 so hopefully this estimate will increase. 

[Hiccup23]

2 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Midday update for today's previews and also added John Wick 4. JW4 is starting strong. (Madison WI Theaters). Glad to see Creed III is picking up in sales. I will pull this just before 3pm when the first showing for Creed III starts. 

 

Film	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of Showings	Change
Creed III	105	1,904	5.5%	10	28	77
Operation Fortune	9	714	1.3%	6	0	9
John Wick 4	48	1,450	3.3%	5	N/A	N/A

Film                       Total Sold    Total Seats    Percent Sold    # of Showings    Change    
Creed III                        145           1,904               7.6%                   10                  40    105
Operation Fortune          14              714               2.0%                    6                    5    9
 

[el sid]

Creed III, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 286 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 189 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 35 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 69 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 150 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 338 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.081.

Up modest 22% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Thurday): Plane (435k from previews) had 210 sold tickets,
The Woman King (1.7M) had 389 sold tickets
and Black Adam (7.6M) had 2.571 sold tickets.
Still very uneven, the average number is 3.4M and so I just say 5M from previews (Wednesday + Thursday).

Creed III, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 530 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 212 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 116 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 29 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 92 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 229 (14 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 444 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.652. Really not frontloaded.

Up ok 27% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): The Woman King (19.1M) had 520 sold tickets = x3.18 = 60.7M,
Plane (10.2M OW) had 292 sold tickets = x5.67 = 58.2M,
F9 (70M) had 3.585 sold tickets = 46% = 32.2M,
H&S had 2.465 sold tickets = 67% = 40.2M,
and King Richard (5.4M) had 283 sold tickets = x5.84 = 31.5M.
 

It had such impressive jumps till yesterday but till today they weren't convincing. And this time the comps are also not very helpful because they are too uneven. The comps with the two original films are very probably too optimistic but I think Creed III will have better walk-ups than King Richard.
So between 35-40M OW judging from my theaters but I noticed that it looks better in other reports so I say 40M. Also because the Friday presales are far better than the Thursday presales which is always a good sign.

And I had a short look at Operation Fortune which did not improve (much). A little bit under 5M OW is still my guess.

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Creed III	T-0	Jax	5	33	184	473	5,052	9.36%
		Phx	7	28	127	402	3,818	10.53%
		Ral	8	34	108	417	3,665	11.38%
	Total		20	95	419	1,292	12,535	10.31%

 

Creed III T-0 comps

 - Elvis - 1.121x (3.586m)

 - No Time to Die - .574x (2.99m)

 - Dune - .584x (2.98m)

 - F9 - .423x (3m)

 - Death on the Nile - 3.822x (4.2m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.238x (4.15m)

 - Free Guy - 2.26x (4.96m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.02x (4.18m)

 

Still a pretty big range here.  I'm leaning more towards the high end and think it could finish close to 4m for Thursday.  Conservatively, I'll go with 5.5m total previews but I wouldn't be shocked if it gets to 6m.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Creed III	1-Hr	Jax	5	36	280	753	5,203	14.47%
		Phx	7	29	231	633	3,850	16.44%
		Ral	8	35	339	756	3,710	20.38%
	Total		20	100	850	2,142	12,763	16.78%

 

I forget how much more exciting it is to pull the T-1hr report for 7pm previews instead of breaking them up throughout the day.  Excellent day for Creed!

 

Creed III T-1hr comps

 - Elvis - 1.342x (4.29m)

 - No Time to Die - .784x (4.08m)

 - Dune - .779x (3.97m)

 - F9 - .558x (3.96m)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 - Bullet Train - 1.44x (4.83m)

 - Free Guy - 2.465x (5.42m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.094x (4.485m)

All action - 4.01m

All drama - 3.71m

All PG-13 movies - 4.31m

All 7pm previews - 4.55m

All movies - 4.54m

 

Bumping my prediction up yet again!  It could easily hit 4m, so I'm going bold and saying 4.5m for Thursday (6.25m total).   

[Eric Prime]

16 hours ago, Eric Creed said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	85	2825	16124	17.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 723

 

Comp - T-1

1.118x of F9 (7.94M)

1.225x of No Time to Die (7.72M)

1.764x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7.94M)

1.643x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (9.86M)

1.620x of Nope (10.37M)

1.220x of Black Adam (9.27M)

0.216x of Black Panther 2 (6.04M)

0.621x of Avatar 2 (10.55M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	4479	16340	27.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,654

 

Comp

0.988x of F9 (7.01M)

1.539x of No Time to Die (9.7M)

2.019x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (9.09M)

1.901x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (11.41M)

1.419x of Nope (9.08M)

1.268x of Black Adam (9.64M)

0.245x of Black Panther 2 (6.87M)

0.738x of Avatar 2 (12.55M)

 

So as I've said countless times, this is overindexing like crazy. In Philly, it's a law to see a Rocky/Creed movie. But like...yeah, this is gonna do well.

[Eric Prime]

16 hours ago, Eric Creed said:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	56	2267	2.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 18

 

Comp - T-1

0.215x of Snake Eyes (301K)

0.208x of The King's Man (166K)

0.737x of The 355 (258K)

0.229x of Moonfall (160K)

0.368x of Ambulance (270K)

0.049x of Bullet Train (227K)

0.219x of Violent Night (241K)

0.257x of Plane (160K)

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	114	2353	4.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.175x of Snake Eyes (245K)

0.261x of The King's Man (209K)

0.745x of The 355 (261K)

0.318x of Moonfall (223K)

0.375x of Ambulance (262K)

0.065x of Bullet Train (299K)

0.279x of Violent Night (307K)

0.280x of Plane (175K)

 

Yeah...it exists.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-15

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
16	108	2869	3.7%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
9	1

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-15

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	18	1780	1.0%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
2	0

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-14

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	125	3139	3.9%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
17	1

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-14

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	18	1780	1.0%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

 

A new Shazam showing sold well (so a sizable jump today in AMC count), but stayed pretty stagnant everywhere else. 

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS 

 

JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 4

 

T-22

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
27	220	4915	4.5%

 

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Looks very good to me 

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [T-1]:

2279/13768 (16.55% sold) [+808 tickets/+122 seats]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

81.80% of NTTD            at T-1 (5.07m)

109.57% of GBA            at T-1 (4.93m)

79.05% of Sonic 2         at T-1 (4.94m)

23.60% of TGM             at T-1 (4.55m)

27.07% of JWD              at T-1 (4.87m)

100.89% of Nope          at T-1 (6.46m)

72.26% of Black Adam at T-1 (5.49m)

 

Yeaaaah, this is clearing 5m with ease. 👍

 

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [FINAL] [6:25-6:40]:

3492/14116 (24.74% sold) [+1213 tickets/+348 seats]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

93.44% of NTTD            at T-0 (5.79m)

115.10% of GBA              at T-0 (5.18m)

88.38% of Sonic 2         at T-0 (5.52m)

30.43% of TGM              at T-0 (5.86m)

31.84% of JWD              at T-0 (5.73m)

91.37% of Nope             at T-0 (5.85m)

77.70% of Black Adam  at T-0 (5.91m)

 

Just a great day.  I am taking this sample much later than all of the above, and this will have far fewer showings than the ones listed.  On the other hand, should be fewer childrens tickets than for most of the above, except for NTTD and Nope.  NTTD and TMG should be the best comps, especially since they both had early access showtimes to boost the ATP. So let's go with 5.9m +/- .3m.

 

Just a remarkable pre-sale run.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Creed III Greater Sacramento Report [FINAL] [6:25-6:40]:

3492/14116 (24.74% sold) [+1213 tickets/+348 seats]

Sellouts: 1 (+0)

 

93.44% of NTTD            at T-0 (5.79m)

115.10% of GBA              at T-0 (5.18m)

88.38% of Sonic 2         at T-0 (5.52m)

30.43% of TGM              at T-0 (5.86m)

31.84% of JWD              at T-0 (5.73m)

91.37% of Nope             at T-0 (5.85m)

77.70% of Black Adam  at T-0 (5.91m)

 

Just a great day.  I am taking this sample much later than all of the above, and this will have far fewer showings than the ones listed.  On the other hand, should be fewer childrens tickets than for most of the above, except for NTTD and Nope.  NTTD and TMG should be the best comps, especially since they both had early access showtimes to boost the ATP. So let's go with 5.9m +/- .3m.

 

Just a remarkable pre-sale run.

that would be a lot lower than what I am seeing with Harkins. Harkins looks like $7M+ including early access shows.

[DAJK]

Sad to say Canada isn’t looking nearly as strong. But as someone who worked at and tracked Canadian theaters in both 2015 and 2018, Creed was simply just never as strong here as it is in the States. So when I say my comps all point to around 2-2.5M for true Thursday, take that with a massive grain of salt.

[excel1]

2 hours ago, Eric Creed said:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Gurre Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	114	2353	4.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.175x of Snake Eyes (245K)

0.261x of The King's Man (209K)

0.745x of The 355 (261K)

0.318x of Moonfall (223K)

0.375x of Ambulance (262K)

0.065x of Bullet Train (299K)

0.279x of Violent Night (307K)

0.280x of Plane (175K)

 

Yeah...it exists.

 

This is actually a fun movie which would have done well had it been released last summer as planned with proper marketing 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Probably.  Which is why I added TGM as something of a control.  But even the ultra mega-hot start of TGM in Sacto was a sign that it was gonna break out much more than expected.

 

Anything else I have to say about this will probably be better served after a few more days of data.

Even more than TGM.

TGM Harkins day 1 was 2726 vs 1.5k in Sacramento.

 

Wick is 409 in Harkins vs 481 in Sacramento. And Wick sales are strong in Harkins as well.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Even more than TGM.

TGM Harkins day 1 was 2726 vs 1.5k in Sacramento.

 

Wick is 409 in Harkins vs 481 in Sacramento. And Wick sales are strong in Harkins as well.

 

Smaller movies can have greater varience.  Just takes one group sale to tip the scale in the short term.  Most of the reason why I'm saving any real thoughts on JWC4 until a couple of days in so any potential randomness can smooth out.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Creed III MTC1

Previews Final - 75970/298356 1223685.54 1673 shows

Friday presales - 104549/793507 1667824.53 4204 shows

 

Solid final day for Creed. Probably looking at about 4.5m for just thursday and around 6.5m including early shows(Monday and Wednesday). I dont have MTC2 number yet but sample data so far looks even better with walkups as MTC2 normally is. Even better news is friday presales. I think its going for at least low teens for just friday and may be even higher with strong reviews/reactions helps walkups through the weekend. I definitely feel strongly about 50m+ OW for Creed III at this point. its going to have a great saturday increase and a soft Sunday drop as is for movies with strong WOM.  

 

[keysersoze123]

Demon Slayer Friday Presales

MTC1 - 58897/282994 855626.51 1959 shows

MTC2 - 47609/195806 580820.17 1589 shows

 

Let us hope for reasonable walkups tomorrow.