The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

https://www.indiewire.com/2023/03/nato-annual-report-theaters-average-ticket-price-1234817316/

 

$10.53

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[ThomasNicole]

$ 40M should happen with 5.5M previews, nice

 

If it´s 6M even better

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Well, huge rush or not, I am really looking foward on how Mario will do this first day, and if starting the pre-sales after a fan event like the Nintendo Direct will have an effect.

[ViewerAnon]

5.5-6 feels crazy to me considered SCREAM 22 “only” made $3.5M in Thursday previews.

[Eric is Quiet]

2 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

65 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	192	4978	3.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-1

0.738x of Snake Eyes (1.03M)

2.526 of The 355 (884K)

0.784x of Moonfall (549K)

1.324x of Ambulance (927K)

0.046x of Jurassic World: Dominion (830K)

0.170x of Bullet Train (780K)

0.750x of Violent Night (825K)

0.881x of Plane (559K)

3.429x of Operation Fortune (754K)

65 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	395	4978	7.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 203

 

Comp

0.606x of Snake Eyes (848K)

2.582x of The 355 (903K)

1.103x of Moonfall (772K)

1.299x of Ambulance (909K)

0.063x of Jurassic World: Dominion (1.13M)

0.225x of Bullet Train (1.04M)

0.968x of Violent Night (1.06M)

0.970x of Plane (616K)

3.465x of Operation Fortune (762K)

[Eric is Quiet]

2 hours ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	1922	13519	14.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 354

 

Comp - T-1

1.093x of Halloween Kills (5.3M)

1.376x of Scream (4.81M)

1.102x of Nope (7.05M)

1.103x of Halloween Ends (5.96M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	2880	13519	21.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 958

 

Comp

1.002x of Halloween Kills (4.86M)

1.325x of Scream (4.64M)

0.912x of Nope (5.84M)

1.051x of Halloween Ends (5.68M)

I guess this is just doing poorly in Philly? Everybody else has their stuff in the 5s, so I guess it will be fine. But it is very weird.

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
65	T-0	Jax	4	18	61	125	1,818	6.88%
		Phx	7	19	45	111	2,006	5.53%
		Ral	7	23	32	121	2,704	4.47%
	Total		18	60	138	357	6,528	5.47%
Champions	T-0	Jax	5	9	5	13	882	1.47%
		Phx	7	11	4	9	895	1.01%
		Ral	7	12	3	19	1,180	1.61%
	Total		19	32	12	41	2,957	1.39%
Scream VI	T-0	Jax	6	42	112	559	5,640	9.91%
		Phx	7	33	166	844	5,610	15.04%
		Ral	8	42	129	510	5,362	9.51%
	Total		21	117	407	1,913	16,612	11.52%

 

Scream VI T-0 comps

 - Nope - .964x (6.17m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 5.198x (7.54m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.51x (6.19m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.068x (4.43m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.056x (5.12m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.333x (7.2m)

 - Dune - .865x (4.41m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.026x (4.62m)

 - Morbius - .854x (4.87m)

 - Black Adam - .682x (5.19m)

 - Scream 5 - 1.369x (4.79m)

 

I still like my 5m prediction.  

 

65 T-0 comps

 - Beast - 1.545x (1.43m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.01x (1.5m)

 - Missing - 2.93x (2.22m)

 - Old - 1.088x (1.63m)

 - Lightyear - .102x (1.02m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .602x (1.2m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .97x (1.41m)

 

Sticking with 1.5m

 

Champions T-0 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .854x

 - Fabelmans - .519x (207k)

 - Stillwater - .612x (171k)

 - King Richard - .066x (127k)

 

Maybe it can get to 200k.  

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
65	1-Hr	Jax	4	18	69	194	1,818	10.67%
		Phx	7	19	37	148	2,006	7.38%
		Ral	7	23	86	207	2,704	7.66%
	Total		18	60	192	549	6,528	8.41%
Champions	1-Hr	Jax	5	9	8	21	882	2.38%
		Phx	7	11	7	16	895	1.79%
		Ral	7	12	14	33	1,180	2.80%
	Total		19	32	29	70	2,957	2.37%
Scream VI	1-Hr	Jax	6	42	185	744	5,640	13.19%
		Phx	7	33	202	1,046	5,610	18.65%
		Ral	8	44	173	683	5,575	12.25%
	Total		21	119	560	2,473	16,825	14.70%

 

Scream VI T-1 hr comps

 - Nope - .851x (5.45m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.263x (5.18m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.0037x (4.3m)

 - Halloween Kills - .992x (4.81m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Dune - .899x (4.59m)

 - Morbius - .838x (4.78m)

 - Black Adam - .651x (4.94m)

 - Scream 5 - missed

All horror movies - 5.92m

All R movies - 5.63m

All movies - 5.24m

 

I'm tempted to stick with 5m but the horror average is telling me to bump it up.  Final prediction: 5.3m

 

65 T-1 hr comps

 - Beast - 1.393x (1.29m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.033x (1.53m)

 - Missing - missing

 - Old - .832x (1.25m)

 - Lightyear - .221x (1.08m)

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

All thrillers - 1.35m

All PG-13 movies - 1.1m

All 4pm previews - 1.11m

All movies - 1.16m

 

Not bad for what it is.  I'll go with 1.2m 

 

Champions T-1 hr comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - missed

 - Fabelmans - missed

 - Stillwater - .522x (146k)

 - King Richard - missed

 - Easter Sunday - .432x (216k)

All comedies - 170k

All 7pm previews - 149k

All movies - 148k

 

Should finish at 150k 

[ThomasNicole]

I think Mario will be a succesful movie but nothing mindblowing 

 

Like 75M OW and 250-300M totals (that depends on reception) 

 

The final trailer looks awesome tho

[Menor the Destroyer]

Did not realize Mario was having midnights. The last time I remember tracking those was probably FFH?

[screambaby]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t think so. Scream 5 had an 8.7x including a holiday Sunday. 
 

$5m previews could lead to the franchise record though, about $35m. 

Scream 5 almost got to 30 mill on the 3  day with 3.5 previews. if we push the previews to 6 it will get closer to 40 I think.

Edited March 9, 2023 by screambaby

[misterpepp]

51 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Did not realize Mario was having midnights. The last time I remember tracking those was probably FFH?

 

Like FFH, it's because there's no Tuesday preview options otherwise. I suppose the short length of the movie is making some theaters more willing to supply this option.

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think Mario will be a succesful movie but nothing mindblowing 

 

Like 75M OW and 250-300M totals (that depends on reception) 

 

The final trailer looks awesome tho

It's the first kids movie of the year. Wehave to keep that in mind. 

This could either mean underperformance due to a lack of theatrical promotion or on the other side a huge run by families waiting for 4 month to get another opportunity to go to the movies. 

 

I think this will break out big time and it'll be option #2.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:05pm - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	118	11473	14076	2603	18.49%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	471
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	324

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune [12:00-12:20]	108.87		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	89.30%		5.55m
Morb [12:00-12:40]	89.88		414	2896		0/183	21262/24158	11.99%		3477	74.86%		5.12m
Nope [12:00-12:30]	91.17		596	2855		0/160	18458/21313	13.40%		3822	68.11%		5.84m
BA [11:35-12:25]	71.91		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	57.92%		5.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        506/3760  [13.46% sold]
Matinee:       155/773  [20.05% | 5.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            648/3485  [18.59% | 24.89% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Probs looking around 5.5 to 6.  The 3D percentage really ought to boost things, FWIW, as will the R-rating.  See where it lands soon enough.

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:20pm - 4:40pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	121	11402	14536	3134	21.56%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	3
Total Seats Added Since Since Mid-Day	460
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	531

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune [5:10-5:30]	107.51		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	107.51%		5.48m
Morb [3:50-4:30]	90.14		581	3477		0/188	21171/24648	14.11%		3477	90.14%		5.14m
Nope [3:45-4:35]	82.00		967	3822		0/160	17491/21313	17.93%		3822	82.00%		5.25m
BA [3:45-4:35]	69.74		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	69.74%		5.30m
A2 [3:50-4:25]	34.88		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	34.88%		5.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       668/3945  [16.93% sold]
Matinee:      209/773  [27.04% | 6.67% of all tickets sold]
3D:            703/3775  [18.62% | 22.43% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Threw in a Avatar 2 comp purely for 3D purposes.  That'll have a higher 3D percentage, natch, but also far fewer adult tickets.  One thing to note about the Nope comp:  Scream VI has a higher PLF percentage and Nope didn't have any 3D showtimes, so it really ought to come in higher than Nope.

 

5.5m +/- .25m sounds good to me.  Could be even higher depending on just how well it does with PLF and 3D. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Did not realize Mario was having midnights. The last time I remember tracking those was probably FFH?

 

That explains that rando 12am showing I saw in Pleasant Hill when I was scanning for showtimes this morning.

 

...

 

Hmmmm.....

 

Might have to check it out.

 

(yes, last one of note was FFH)

Edited March 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

Like FFH, it's because there's no Tuesday preview options otherwise. I suppose the short length of the movie is making some theaters more willing to supply this option.

 

Do you know if this was a last minute decision or not?  I only ask coz as I scan my locals, I don't see any local midnights even though Mario is now live.

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Do you know if this was a last minute decision or not?  I only ask coz as I scan my locals, I don't see any local midnights even though Mario is now live.

 

It's either last minute or limited to biggest theaters - my Cinemarks don't have them, but my big AMC does...and its 2 midnights are selling REALLY well...probably b/c they are the only 2 within 50 miles of my house...

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's either last minute or limited to biggest theaters - my Cinemarks don't have them, but my big AMC does...and its 2 midnights are selling REALLY well...probably b/c they are the only 2 within 50 miles of my house...

 

Yeah, ain't nothing within 50 miles of me, either.  Literally the closest one is about 70 miles away.  I'll keep an eye on things and see if anything closer to me gets added or not.

[keysersoze123]

Its unfortunate Scream VI finished below the famous Morbius in Sacramento. I hope its OW is more than 1 Morbillion :-) 

 

I am also seeing less than expected walkups. Horror is very walkup friendly but this is definitely more PS driven so far. That said its a non summer thursday and so let us wait until tomorrow for sure.