The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ringedmortality]

Someone needs to say something to the effect of "Transformers will do sub 20M OW" so it can be posted on reddit.

[screambaby]

I'm a huge fan of the 80s cartoon but never got into the quasi live action movies.

 

Still it's dissapointing to know something you love has lost its touch.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Someone needs to say something to the effect of "Transformers will do sub 20M OW" so it can be posted on reddit.

 

Has Shawn put a tracking number up yet?

 

I mean, my mental calculus has this somewhere between $30-$40M DOM OW (ala Shazam to DnD), but I have never followed this brand, so I'm pulling that whole number out of my "male-skewing brand no one cares about anymore in 2023" pocket...

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Someone needs to say something to the effect of "Transformers will do sub 20M OW" so it can be posted on reddit.

I think the reddit jokes are no longer interesting. Its time we ignore them. I actually like reddit just dont care much for this subreddit. 

 

Anyway Transformers may not have a great OW but it wont go that low. Let us wait for few days of presales before predicting its OW. 

[GOGODanca]

They found success with Bumbleebee during Christmas and then decided to put their super expensive "reboot" in this buzz saw of a summer

[Tinalera]

Fast X 

Thur May 18 and Fri May 19

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	42	413	9845	10258	0.0402
Fri	4	33	388	6032	6420	0.0604
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	40	153	11632	11785	0.0129
Fri	3	22	165	6638	6803	0.0242

 

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17(Taken feb 9)

Toronto Ontario 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	32	1935	7957	9892	0.1956
	Fri	4	36	1630	7906	9536	0.1709

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Quebec	Thurs	4	29	981	6956	7937	0.1235
	Fri	4	23	889	5400	6289	0.1413

 

Gotg 3

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	3	40	1299	7146	8488	0.1530
	Fri	4	49	959	9514	10473	0.0915
Montreal		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	33	882	7909	8791	0.1003
	Fri	3	23	550	6202	6752	0.0814

 

 

	T T	T F	M T	T F
Fast X	10258	6420	11786	6803
Antman	9892	9563	7937	6289
diff	366	-3143	3849	514
Fast X	10258	6420	11786	6803
Gotg 3	8488	10473	8791	6752
diff	1770	-4053	2995	51

[poweranimals]

6 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Sales wise I have no idea, but the low allocation is telling me that Transformer will probably sink because of the packed summer 

Yeah, that was one of the worst times they could've picked to release it. With all of those major releases, if any movie was going to end up as a casualty it was going to be that.

Edited May 10, 2023 by poweranimals

[tonytr87]

42 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Yeah, that was one of the worst times they could've picked to release it. With all of those major releases, if any movie was going to end up as a casualty it was going to be that.

 

Over or under 100 mil?

[poweranimals]

Just now, tonytr87 said:

 

Over or under 100 mil?

Probably under with the way things are looking.

[reddevil19]

4 hours ago, grim22 said:

The issue with the movie is that none of the promotions makes it look at different than the Bay movies. And people tapped out of those a while ago, nostalgia for those movies should be arriving in about 5 years from now.

Oh god... 🤢

Still think it can open to around 50 million. 

Edited May 10, 2023 by reddevil19

[Mulder]

Thinking a KoTM-style run for Transformers RoTB sounds about right. 40-50 million OW, 110-120 domestic finish, 370-415 WW finish.

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales -Book Club: The Next Chapter (May 11, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	615 PM	18	216	8.33%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	900 PM	0	216	0.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	500 PM	0	109	0.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	745 PM	0	109	0.00%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	915 PM	0	95	0.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	500 PM	28	76	36.84%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	755 PM	12	76	15.79%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	955 PM	0	66	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	500 PM	1	43	2.33%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	700 PM	3	35	8.57%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	800 PM	5	43	11.63%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	945 PM	0	35	0.00%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1045 PM	0	43	0.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	500 PM	2	109	1.83%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	740 PM	1	111	0.90%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	1015 PM	0	111	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	500 PM	0	94	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	600 PM	0	143	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	740 PM	0	94	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	840 PM	1	143	0.70%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		18	432	4.17%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		0	313	0.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		40	218	18.35%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		9	199	4.52%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		3	331	0.91%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		1	474	0.21%
Total Sold		71	1967	3.61%

 

The Covenant had 60 tix sold ($400K Previews) with same theaters. Are You There God 36 tix sold ($600K Previews), and The Pope's Exorcist 96 tickets for $850K Previews.

 

Tickets look decent at a couple theaters, but dismal in others. This looks it will play out as a coastal film. Like Are You There God, I expect previews to be fairly low and then do better over the weekend for a higher multiplier. I'm going to say 700K in Previews for this film with $7.5 Million Opening Weekend.

Edited May 10, 2023 by JayPrimetown

[filmlover]

An opening similar to Dungeons & Dragons ($37M) sounds about right for what to expect from Transformers. You can just feel the overall sense of apathy in the air of a franchise that has clearly overstayed its welcome (Bumblebee would've likely struggled to hit $100M total if it hadn't turned out to be an actually good movie).

 

Don't know if this has been mentioned yet but I've seen showtimes for both The Boogeyman and (more notably) Elemental starting to appear at a number of theaters so they must be going on sale soon. Boogeyman starts at 7 that Thursday while Elemental will begin at 3 for its previews.

Edited May 10, 2023 by filmlover

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/9/2023 at 4:20 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2301	32751	7.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

220

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.453x) ~$8.2M THUR

 

Massive jump today thanks to the positive social media reactions 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

T-15

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2409	32751	7.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

108

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

Another strong day of sales 

 

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.468x) ~$8.4M THUR

 

Mario 

(0.611x) ~$19.5M THUR

 

I think i might stop using Mario as comp. It had a pretty steady pace then exploded in the final days so it throws off numbers 

 

Anyways, I will post it for now 

[misterpepp]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Boogeyman and (more notably) Elemental starting to appear at a number of theaters so they must be going on sale soon.

 

Yeah, mentioned a few pages back that Boogeyman is on sale Monday. Don't know about Elemental yet.

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - Hypnotic (May 11, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	615 PM	4	218	1.83%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	930 PM	2	211	0.95%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	630 PM	5	182	2.75%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	910 PM	0	182	0.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	600 PM	4	74	5.41%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	900 PM	1	74	1.35%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	600 PM	8	47	17.02%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	830  PM	4	47	8.51%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1100 PM	1	47	2.13%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	600 PM	1	247	0.40%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	840 PM	4	247	1.62%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	1000 PM	1	220	0.45%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	600 PM	4	94	4.26%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	700 PM	2	76	2.63%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	825 PM	0	94	0.00%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		6	429	1.40%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		5	364	1.37%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		5	148	3.38%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		13	141	9.22%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		6	714	0.84%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		6	264	2.27%
Total Sold		41	2060	1.99%

 

No theater is really pulling the numbers here, but there is some sales across all theaters which does say something. I know this one has limited expectations and the numbers certainly aren't pointing to a large opening opening. I'm thinking $3-$4 Million opening weekend for Hypnotic.

[Eric Furiosa]

On 5/9/2023 at 9:07 PM, I Am Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	876	20135	4.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp - T-9

0.936x of F9 (6.64M)

0.434x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.82M)

2.086x of Nope (13.35M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	915	21824	4.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

 

Comp - T-8

0.913x of F9 (6.48M)

0.429x of Jurassic World 3 (7.72M)

2.024x of Nope (12.95M)

[Eric Furiosa]

23 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1286	28586	4.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 154

 

Comp - T-16

2.760x of Sonic 2 (17.25M)

0.820x of Jurassic World: Dominion (14.75M)

2.047x of Black Adam (15.56M)

0.761x of Avatar 2 (12.94M)

0.842x of Mario (26.7M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1367	28586	4.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp - T-15

2.836x of Sonic 2 (17.73M)

0.853x of Jurassic World 3 (15.36M)

2.205x of Black Adam (16.76M)

0.763x of Avatar 2 (12.97M)

0.866x of Mario (27.46M)

[Eric Furiosa]

23 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1165	23838	4.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 178

 

Comp - T-23

4.774x of Sonic 2 (29.84M)

0.143x of Doctor Strange 2 (5.14M)

0.858x of Jurassic World 3 (15.45M)

0.284x of Thor 4 (8.24M)

0.204x of Black Panther 2 (5.7M)

1.048x of Avatar 2 (17.81M)

0.338x of Ant-Man 3 (5.92M)

1.107x of Mario (35.11M)

0.423x of Guardians 3 (7.41M)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1274	23838	5.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 109

 

Comp - T-22

4.470x of Sonic 2 (27.94M)

0.153x of Doctor Strange 2 (5.52M)

0.924x of Jurassic World 3 (16.63M)

0.302x of Thor 4 (8.76M)

0.218x of Black Panther 2 (6.1M)

1.052x of Avatar 2 (17.88M)

0.363x of Ant-Man 3 (6.36M)

1.171x of Mario (37.12M)

0.457x of Guardians 3 (8M)

[Eric Furiosa]

Oh and just to clarify, I'm waiting to see what Shawn says in his BOP report this Friday on whether I will look at Transformers or not. If 70M+ is possible in that range he puts out, I will do it. If not, I will wait until week of release. With three movies to track, all of which having insanely early (and annoying) preview times, adding another one in there only makes things more complicated.