The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

On 5/19/2023 at 7:41 PM, M37 said:

Little Mermaid T-7 Analysis/Update

 

Not going to rehash it, but a LOT of info in those previous two posts that might be worth revisiting. The open question: do we finally have an idea of what kind of pace to expect and therefore comps to focus on during the last week? Yes, we just might

 

Growth over the last week or so, after somewhat keeping up with Sonic 2 for a little while, has fallen back a bit and very much settled into the range of the JW4/BA/JWD/Scream VI grouping. If that were to continue over the final week, should expect tickets sales to more than triple from their current checkpoint* to T-0, unless reviews are poor and LM limps to finish like JWD

*Except for Orlando (as tracked by @TheFlatLannister) which has seen only half the growth rate as the other markets of late, presumably due to a Disney-influenced higher early buy surge, and should continue to lag on growth rate

 

Here's the approximate benchmarks for Alpha to keep on that pace, from a current value of 52.7K for Thursday (excluding early shows from these numbers)

• T-4 = around 65K (+25% or so)
• T-2 = around 90K (+70-75%)
• T-F = 170K-185K

When you add in whatever early shows gross, that trajectory should clear $10M for Thursday, but probably not get to teens (I'll defer to the MTC whispers on a more precise value from those ticket sales)

 

For the forecast Matrix, reducing the potential high end on the Thursday number - the pace just isn't there (as of now) to really justify mid/high teens - but enough weekend sales data to bump up the lower bound on IM, so the floor hasn't really changed, even if the "approaching Memorial Day weekend record" range is starting to look less likely

 

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$9.6	$10.3	$10.9	$11.5	$12.1	$12.8	$13.4	$14.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.50	$76.5	$81.8	$87.1	$92.4	$97.8	$103.1	$108.4	$113.7	$119.0
	8.75	$78.8	$84.2	$89.7	$95.2	$100.6	$106.1	$111.6	$117.0	$122.5
	9.00	$81.0	$86.6	$92.3	$97.9	$103.5	$109.1	$114.8	$120.4	$126.0
	9.25	$83.3	$89.0	$94.8	$100.6	$106.4	$112.2	$117.9	$123.7	$129.5
	9.50	$85.5	$91.4	$97.4	$103.3	$109.3	$115.2	$121.1	$127.1	$133.0
	9.75	$87.8	$93.8	$99.9	$106.0	$112.1	$118.2	$124.3	$130.4	$136.5
	10.00	$90.0	$96.3	$102.5	$108.8	$115.0	$121.3	$127.5	$133.8	$140.0
	10.25	$92.3	$98.7	$105.1	$111.5	$117.9	$124.3	$130.7	$137.1	$143.5
	10.50	$94.5	$101.1	$107.6	$114.2	$120.8	$127.3	$133.9	$140.4	$147.0

 

Generally the data looks to me like we're heading towards something like an $11-$12M Thursday, but legging out well over the weekend - over 9x if not even 10x - but let's give it a few more days to reduce uncertainty. The updates by T-4 should give decent clarity

Weekend sales pretty much went as expected, so not much to change on the analysis, and think we can really hone in on an expected ~$11-$13M Thursday. With early shows and Disney rounding I'd wager on a flat $12M report

 

Honestly a bit more uncertainty now on the IM, with typical family film 10x+ certainly possible, but IMO more likely to be in 9-10x range.  Shouldn't be much in the way of surprises for the OW (except to those who haven't been following tracking and aren't expecting - or are actively rooting against - a $100M+ debut)

[joselowe]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Weekend sales pretty much went as expected, so not much to change on the analysis, and think we can really hone in on an expected ~$11-$13M Thursday. With early shows and Disney rounding I'd wager on a flat $12M report

 

Honestly a bit more uncertainty now on the IM, with typical family film 10x+ certainly possible, but IMO more likely to be in 9-10x range.  Shouldn't be much in the way of surprises for the OW (except to those who haven't been following tracking and aren't expecting - or are actively rooting against - a $100M+ debut)

At this point it seems like a 100M+ OW debut is likely?

[jedijake]

36 minutes ago, joselowe said:

At this point it seems like a 100M+ OW debut is likely?

I can't see any way this misses $100 million. It would need sub-$30 million for each day Friday to Sunday to miss $100 million.

[vafrow]

I've started tracking my local theatre (Milton, Ontario) more actively. Single theatre, so not the best representation, and I don't have much in the way of comps. 

 

However, at T-4 on Little Mermaid, I do have a comparison now with Fast X. However, Fast X looks like it overperformed locally, and Little Mermaid is on the opposite end.

 

The result is a Thursday opening of $4.9M. Obviously it's clearly not aligned to other numbers here, but, I figure one of the general rules of statistical analysis is not withholding data just because it's an outlier.

For comparison, Across the Spiderverse has sold almost 4X the tickets as Little Mermaid already despite an additional week to release.

[filmlover]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219

Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

 

3 days of presales for previews and 4 days for Friday. If it were for a small market it wouldn't be bad. But this is across the country at the biggest MTC. It would be cheaper to refund and change the date than let it implode.  

I like you keyser but you're doing nothing but the absolute most here. This is not a movie with a built in audience that would rush to buy tickets weeks in advance. If it's still looking like this the week it comes out then we'll talk.

[Maggie]

How's Indy doing?

[SpiderByte]

Lol despite the reviews and the fact that tickets have been live for barely an hour it's already got more seats than several showings of Transformers here

[charlie Jatinder]

lol what. Indy on sale already. RIP @Porthos sleep.

[Maggie]

11 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Lol despite the reviews and the fact that tickets have been live for barely an hour it's already got more seats than several showings of Transformers here

  @Brainbug's club live to see another day

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-51: 41.07% Awareness

 

About My Father T-4: 27% Awareness

Final Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

 

Kandahar T-4: 24.41% Awareness

Final Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

 

The Little Mermaid T-4: 64.65% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 92% chance of 50M, 83% chance of 60M, 75% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

 

The Machine T-4: 22.75% Awareness

Final Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

 

You Hurt My Feelings T-4: 14.46% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

The Boogeyman T-11: 43.77% Awareness

Final Awareness: 88% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M, 36% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 40M

 

No Hard Feelings T-32: 22.32% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

 

Barbie T-60: 48.73% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 70M

 

Talk to Me T-67: 18.04% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Prince Eric said:

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-51: 41.07% Awareness

L

Edit: @Prince Eric yousa W.

Edited May 22, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

We will keep the lid on Indy until later this evening just for fun. @ZackM will be there for Alpha as I wont be able to track during release week. @Inceptionzq will hopefully track Day 1 sales and provide frequent updates. Eric and Porthos will do daily updates anyway. 

 

Just from instinct it will do well but not uber crazy numbers. I am thinking 12-14m previews and low 100s OW and finish about 300m domestic. Not sure about overseas. Traditional markets like Europe/AU should do well while Asia/LA should be a big question.  

[Eric Prime]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

lol what. Indy on sale already. RIP @Porthos sleep.

Speaking of, I'm letting people know that I am abstaining from Indy until Shawn's reports come out in two weeks. These 2/3 PM start times really are more and more cumbersome now that every single movie is doing them, and I have to do one for Flash tomorrow alongside Mermaid and Spider-Verse. At this point, it's just better for my own schedule and health if I wait a little bit, even if presales patterns will look wonky and weird.

 

I'm also gonna probably do this from now on with every movie. So when Avatar 3 has tickets up 3 months before release or whatever, I just have to wait for Shawn to say it is projected to open over 70M. Because I mean...it could open to 30M. You never know

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Prince Eric said:

Speaking of, I'm letting people know that I am abstaining from Indy until Shawn's reports come out in two weeks. These 2/3 PM start times really are more and more cumbersome now that every single movie is doing them, and I have to do one for Flash tomorrow alongside Mermaid and Spider-Verse. At this point, it's just better for my own schedule and health if I wait a little bit, even if presales patterns will look wonky and weird.

 

I'm also gonna probably do this from now on with every movie. So when Avatar 3 has tickets up 3 months before release or whatever, I just have to wait for Shawn to say it is projected to open over 70M. Because I mean...it could open to 30M. You never know

Can you just look at opening day sales and then take a break. Just to see how it compares to other blockbusters. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Just from instinct it will do well but not uber crazy numbers. I am thinking 12-14m previews and low 100s OW and finish about 300m domestic. Not sure about overseas. Traditional markets like Europe/AU should do well while Asia/LA should be a big question.  

really? that low be enough for $100M?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

really? that low be enough for $100M?

This is not a SH movie. Plus will play well with boomers/Gen X. So will have good IM. 

[GOGODanca]

Isn't TGM the only movie that you would need to compare Indy to?

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

This is not a SH movie. Plus will play well with boomers/Gen X. So will have good IM. 

I mean sure, but so are Star Wars movies. aren't they same audience?

[charlie Jatinder]

One thing I did when I used to manually track MiniTC2 is that I took 8 of its best cinemas out of 32 and just tracked those because majority of sales came from them. Those who do manual tracking here, could do that.

[Maggie]

Only 41.07% Awareness for MI:DR? How come so low? They really botched the marketing with the late release of the new trailer

Edited May 22, 2023 by Maggie