The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[poncho]

it's a shame that the flash doesn't have a great opening like ant man 3, after all what really matters is its opening and not that it has good legs, failure of the year ....

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

Baffling that anyone would think Snyder fans are going to turn up in large numbers for the movie that's the antithesis of his films and that's going to end up wiping that universe from existence.

“Snyder fans” make up far less of the general audience than niche internet circles like us think.

[excel1]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

“Snyder fans” make up far less of the general audience than niche internet circles like us think.

 

why do many disrespect that iconic Oscar winning epic classic?

[screambaby]

15 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Is selling better than both marvels movies at least in miami

Heat fans will buy anything right now

[THUNDER BIRD]

It seems Social Media hype had people forget that It's a DC movie and it's Flash.

 

A studio people don't care about and a superhero people don't care about, there's some hype due to its concept and maybe hype by TV fans and Old Batman fans.

 

But that's about it, social media never fooled me, you have 2 Batmen in the movie, but we all know that there was only 1 Batman who would've provided this movie an organic hype and that Batman is not in the movie.

[Notthereverseflash24]

5 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

It seems Social Media hype had people forget that It's a DC movie and it's Flash.

 

A studio people don't care about and a superhero people don't care about, there's some hype due to its concept and maybe hype by TV fans and Old Batman fans.

 

But that's about it, social media never fooled me, you have 2 Batmen in the movie, but we all know that there was only 1 Batman who would've provided this movie an organic hype and that Batman is not in the movie.

And you gathered this from what? Less than a day of pre sales?

[THUNDER BIRD]

5 minutes ago, Notthereverseflash24 said:

And you gathered this from what? Less than a day of pre sales?

Years of experience of watching DC movies having Social Media Hype and then crashing and burning when they finally release.

 

Almost as if it has become a pattern now.

[filmlover]

Would be an amusing turn of events after all the claims of "this summer is too overcrowded" we simply end up with a season with a bunch of solid performers but no true breakouts compared to pre-release expectations.

 

Which wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Even from miles away this summer always looked like it would be without an 800 pound gorilla.

[scytheavatar]

1 hour ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

90 would be a fine result for that kind of movie

 

You are talking about 90M final, not 90M opening weekend correct? Cause it seems likely Barbie will be domestic heavy (just like the Lego Movies) and with a 100M budget that would mean the movie is losing money with 90M.

[eXtacy]

Hardly shocking to see Flash performing poorly given the state of DCU latest two films. Looks fairly decent to be honest with still the potential there for 100m with good/amazing review boost. I did think the early forecasts were way high by most.

 

Does it really matter if it opens small. If it is true thats its amazing it could have fantastic legs and hit high numbers by its end.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-10) - 85820/738256 1527229.90 3941 shows // +3210

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-9) - 90398/742804 1601093.96 3967 shows // +4578

 

That is more like it. Better pace than even Guardians at similar point. Let us see how the final surge goes. I am expecting a 10K Sunday and good final 4 days. 

[WittyUsername]

I’ve been expecting a $90-100 million OW for The Flash for a while now. In terms of legs, I can’t imagine it would possibly hold as poorly as Ant-Man 3, but I’m also not expecting it to be leggier than the typical CBM released in the Summer.
 

I have to wonder if the movie would fare better if it wasn’t for the incoming reboot. 

[Dlund87]

Tickets haven't even been on sale for a day now. I don't understand how you can determine its outcome on less than 12 hours in a 2 week window. The final trailer jist dropped as well so ticket sales will be fine. The big theaters in LA and NY are having good presales in imax 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-9) - 90398/742804 1601093.96 3967 shows // +4578

 

That is more like it. Better pace than even Guardians at similar point. Let us see how the final surge goes. I am expecting a 10K Sunday and good final 4 days. 

Praying for a third CBM 17.5 of the year. I think in the end it will be close to Guardians 3 at MTC1, final day should be a lot stronger since its summer. 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[John Marston]

14 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I’ve been expecting a $90-100 million OW for The Flash for a while now. In terms of legs, I can’t imagine it would possibly hold as poorly as Ant-Man 3, but I’m also not expecting it to be leggier than the typical CBM released in the Summer.
 

I have to wonder if the movie would fare better if it wasn’t for the incoming reboot. 

 

 

a movie like this should have strong fan rush in terms of tickets sold. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Dlund87 said:

Tickets haven't even been on sale for a day now. I don't understand how you can determine its outcome on less than 12 hours in a 2 week window. The final trailer jist dropped as well so ticket sales will be fine. The big theaters in LA and NY are having good presales in imax 

The whole point of this thread is trying to extrapolate from limited data. We aren't saying it's a 100% prophecy but generally we can narrow down the range of outcomes quite a bit at this point. 

[Joyous Legion]

6 minutes ago, Dlund87 said:

Tickets haven't even been on sale for a day now. I don't understand how you can determine its outcome on less than 12 hours in a 2 week window. The final trailer jist dropped as well so ticket sales will be fine. The big theaters in LA and NY are having good presales in imax 

You can’t completely determine the outcome of course but you can develop a pretty healthy sense of the general range — and the “how” of it is by comparing to lots of other movies 12 hrs vs how they finished

Edited May 24, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[raegr]

Pre-sales in canada for the flash seem to be doing better than what I remembered guardians doing

[WorkingonaName]

54 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

 

You are talking about 90M final, not 90M opening weekend correct? Cause it seems likely Barbie will be domestic heavy (just like the Lego Movies) and with a 100M budget that would mean the movie is losing money with 90M.

Barbie making less then 100 Mil is lunacy.

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid

MTC1 

Wednesday - 17515/34974 374646.63 153 shows +892

Previews(T-3) - 76894/934742 1302835.58 5732 shows +9705

Friday - 97824/1039204 1586622.66 5758 shows +16156

 

MTC2

Wednesday - 3611/19145 58451.00 101 shows +464

Previews - 47733/460239 688823.31 3019 shows +4808

 

 

Solid review boost and also final weekdays. Bigger questions is what is going to happen tomorrow as most movies get tuesday boosts. For now I am sticking with around 12m previews. 

Mermaid

MTC1 

Wednesday - 18628/34974 397350.48 153 shows +1113

Previews(T-2) - 88564/954614 1489196.42 5868 shows +11670

Friday - 121060/1202810 1945155.10 6943 shows +23236

 

MTC2

Wednesday - 4197/19232 67851.50 101 shows +586

Previews - 55970/554955 801900.25 3999 shows +8237

 

Another solid day. At last MTC2 is also showing life. I am not sure if wednesday will cross 1m as most smaller chains have limited shows. Unless the studio reports it(I am skeptical Disney will do it), we will not know for sure and this will make projection slightly difficult. 

 

Friday presales are most promising. I think it will hit 210K by thursday night. Probably double that on saturday at worst to come close to 30m friday. 

 

Thursday is probably headed for 180K finish. I am still sticking with 12m previews including early shows. 

 

Just checked saturday 5 hours earlier. 

 

MTC1 Saturday - 92561/1233617 1349651.89 7135 shows. 

 

Not sure if we can read that much into it considering there is 1 more day of presales compared to friday.