The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

Theme of summer 2023: us all accepting that is not not 2019 any more. $100m opening weekend is really, really good in 2023. Something looking to 'break out' is looking at $100m ballpark. It is what it is.

 

I think we all know that FLASH will do more $7.6m previews and $67m that Black Adam hits. Doubling that, though, is a very heavy life. $115m is a reasonable true high end for opening weekend, with 90-100m more likely. Flash is doing pretty well compared to all non Marvel films. $135m would be a truly epic breakout though.

Edited May 26, 2023 by excel1

[Cmasterclay]

Shaping up to be an absolutely wretched and disappointing summer. People ain't coming back like they used to!

 

EDIT: This is mostly a bit but to be clear the numbers are not great.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[excel1]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Shaping up to be an absolutely wretched and disappointing summer. People ain't coming back like they used to!

 

Top Gun 3: Goose's Revenge will challenge endgame 

[Joyous Legion]

25 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Top Gun 3: Goose's Revenge will challenge endgame 

Top Gun: Pandora

[keysersoze123]

Mermaid seems to be tapered of significantly. Not sure about 11m anymore. 

[cooldude97]

3 hours ago, Wesley said:

 The curiosity factor also will be high for it. 

you made that up, curiosity factor isn't a thing, the closest thing to a "curiosity factor" is WOM. Even then a lot of people were curious about CATS or Morbius, didn't stop them from flopping (not saying the flash will flop just trying to make a point)

Edited May 26, 2023 by cooldude97

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-8) - 95208/744825 1708758.74 3981 shows // +4808

 

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 101660/745057 1844707.66 3984 shows // +6452

Friday - 67257/921978 1228166.55 4574 shows // sold  ~ 8000 ticket over past 30 hours

 

 

Let us hope we see another big boost tomorrow. 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 101660/745057 1844707.66 3984 shows // +6452

Friday - 67257/921978 1228166.55 4574 shows // sold  ~ 8000 ticket over past 30 hours

 

 

Let us hope we see another big boost tomorrow. 

 

 

But this is reactions day (though fewer reactions than usual) so I think more likely flat or slightly down tomorrow. But I think by Sunday it will be close to GOTG3 pace which was 10.5k and Monday onward it should be ahead, with the last couple days well ahead. 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[tonytr87]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

Theme of summer 2023: us all accepting that is not not 2019 any more. $100m opening weekend is really, really good in 2023. Something looking to 'break out' is looking at $100m ballpark. It is what it is.

 

I think we all know that FLASH will do more $7.6m previews and $67m that Black Adam hits. Doubling that, though, is a very heavy life. $115m is a reasonable true high end for opening weekend, with 90-100m more likely. Flash is doing pretty well compared to all non Marvel films. $135m would be a truly epic breakout though.

 

The recovery is in slow motion. It takes time. But also, I think Black Panther and Captain Marvel overperforming on opening weekend (not to mention the gargantuan success of Endgame and Infinity War) has trained people to believe any comic book movie can attain such heights right out of the gate. That window for Marvel was very special, and was never replicated for DC. 

 

Consider:

Man of Steel - 115m

Dawn of Justice - 166m

Suicide Squad - 135m

Wonder Woman - 103m

Justice League - 94m

Aquaman - 72m

Shazam - 53m

Birds of Prey - 33m

 

(skipping Wonder Woman 1984 & Gunn's Suicide Squad for COVID reasons)

 

Black Adam - 67m

 

It's not a coincidence that the opening weekend returns became lower and lower following Dawn of Justice & Suicide Squad. Audiences did not invest in the DCEU like they did the MCU. 

 

[Bob Train]

"The summer is doomed"

 

dawg the Summer hasn't even started yet. stfu.

[WorkingonaName]

It would be funny if sportsbet got 3 in a row for blockbuster openings. 

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

"The summer is doomed"

 

dawg the Summer hasn't even started yet. stfu.

We’ve had about a month of BO summer tbf — Gotg3, f10, and Tlm are pretty much locked in. But none of them have flopped or anything, so yeah I dunno about “summer doomed.” SV2 and MI7 should do quite nice as well.

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1 Previews update - 150683/958064 2535158.27 5913 shows

Mermaid MTC1 Previews Final - 177526/957474 2975651.02 5908 shows. 

 

I wont have MTC2 until morning but based on sample I have seen it looks like 10m previews today. With the early shows yesterday I am expecting 11m previews estimated. 

[noobmaster69]

6 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

Don't underestimate the incoming reboot factor as a deterrent for some audiences. Also the fact that Justice League (the ONLY DCEU movie featuring Flash) was six years ago and was terrible. Most people haven't seen the better director's cut and think of Ezra's Flash as the fast dude from that terrible movie years ago. 

Although zsjl is better than jl, it still not a great sh movie. Its score depends on the crazy behavior of fans, so its imdb ratio very strange.

[keysersoze123]

On 5/24/2023 at 9:30 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Friday - 147390/1227870 2375139.50 7112 shows +26330

Mermaid MTC1 Friday - 213807/1232454 3414216.95 7177 shows 

 

its about 28 hours of data still its great. Now its all about walkups.  

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1 Friday - 213807/1232454 3414216.95 7177 shows 

 

its about 28 hours of data still its great. Now its all about walkups.  

Was yesterday less than 24 hours? I thought all updates were same day everyday.

 

This is a very big jump. Should easily hit 450K, possibly closer to 500K. $30M seems lock, likely around $32-33M

Edited May 26, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Sckathian]

7 hours ago, John Marston said:

Flash hype always seemed manufactured (Keaton’s Batman? Supergirl? Does anyone really care?) and people are putting their heads in the sand when it comes to the lead. Not only is the lead brimming with controversy but is miscast and is no leading man

Psst also - The Flash is also just not a popular character and once again DC has hindered themselves by skipping straight to the team ups rather than build a brand. The only way you know Ezra as Flash is if you watched JL which opened to sub 100M despite having much more popular characters.
 

But don’t tell anyone else. Fans can be strange beasts - /Psst Over

 

Its going to be tiring this summer seeing people wring their hands over poor performances - we are simply seeing new trends in the market but it takes a long time for studios to adjust (see The Flash which has been in the can forever) meanwhile some of the major releases we do have are just not great decisions.
 

It’s up to Tom Cruise to save the box office once again.

[ando]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Was yesterday less than 24 hours? I thought all updates were same day everyday.

 

This is a very big jump. Should easily hit 450K, possibly closer to 500K. $30M seems lock, likely around $32-33M

Strong if that holds IMO. I think WoM is gonna be decent too. 

[DAJK]

Just want to throw this in to see how it holds up tomorrow morning, but numbers I'm looking at in Canada, accounting for the fact that this is a film that'll perform far better in the US than it will here, I'm going with 11.1M previews.

[kayumanggi]

@Prince Eric