The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[JustLurking]

Unless I'm misremembering transformers is actually surprisingly not as backloaded as one would expect in regards to IM

[John Marston]

Even I find under Black Adam for Flash to be unbelievable. I remember some saying GOTG 3 would do under 100m opening so some might jump the gun too fast

[Starphanluke]

55 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

Got some pre-sale data to back up that claim?

...all the data in this thread over the past month? There is literally nothing pointing to a $60m+ opening.

[GOGODanca]

Flash going under BA is under the presumption that its previews are below 10m which is extremely unlikely but thats where some of the data points to RIGHT NOW, of course as reviews come out and we get closer to release, that can/will change 

[Eric S'ennui]

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1687	18907	8.92%

 

Comp - T-11

0.322x of The Batman (6.95M)

0.910x of Jurassic World 3 (16.38M)

0.283x of Thor 4 (8.22M)

2.211x of Black Adam (16.8M)

0.798x of Avatar 2 (13.56M)

0.381x of Ant-Man 3 (6.67M)

0.502x of Guardians 3 (8.79M)

0.903x of Spider-Verse (15.68M)

[filmlover]

When does the embargo for Transformers lift?

[Legion Again]

I am always projecting out to the end, not just using the present straight comp values. There seems to be a real chance to finish below 11 and 11.0 is not necessarily enough to pass BA OW. As I said above though I would still take the over for now.

[TheFlatLannister]

FWIW, I do think the Flash is comfortably opening over Black Adam. I would bet on an OW number closer to $90M than say $70M 

 

I expect the pace to really pick up soon, but if it doesnt, $70M should be the worse case scenario (hopefully) 

 

As for transformers, I’m not entirely sold on the $60M+ hopes (thinking mid $50Ms) but we will see what other trackers think 

[GOGODanca]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

When does the embargo for Transformers lift?

Tommorow

[M37]

On 6/3/2023 at 11:21 AM, M37 said:

Looking at last couple of days, and now having ATSV as a true comp, I'm a little bit lower on Flash now, agreeing with @TheFlatLannister that we're heading towards a roughly $11-$13M preview (more like $10.5-$12.5 IMO), with that high end of the range accounting for a very good review bump (aka a GOTG3 overperformance relative to baseline pace). DC films in general tend to over-index in larger metros/MTCs, so there's just less chance that some of the demand is being missed by tracking samples

 

Probably best to set aside dreams of a $100M opening, and really getting to even $90M from here would should be considered a win/extremely good finish. Flash (for reasons that can be discussed in other threads), just doesn't seem to have "it", at least for OW - we'll have to see about legs

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.5	$10.0	$10.5	$11.0	$11.5	$12.0	$12.5	$13.0	$13.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.75	$54.6	$57.5	$60.4	$63.3	$66.1	$69.0	$71.9	$74.8	$77.6
	6.00	$57.0	$60.0	$63.0	$66.0	$69.0	$72.0	$75.0	$78.0	$81.0
	6.25	$59.4	$62.5	$65.6	$68.8	$71.9	$75.0	$78.1	$81.3	$84.4
	6.50	$61.8	$65.0	$68.3	$71.5	$74.8	$78.0	$81.3	$84.5	$87.8
	6.75	$64.1	$67.5	$70.9	$74.3	$77.6	$81.0	$84.4	$87.8	$91.1
	7.00	$66.5	$70.0	$73.5	$77.0	$80.5	$84.0	$87.5	$91.0	$94.5
	7.25	$68.9	$72.5	$76.1	$79.8	$83.4	$87.0	$90.6	$94.3	$97.9
	7.50	$71.3	$75.0	$78.8	$82.5	$86.3	$90.0	$93.8	$97.5	$101.3
	7.75	$73.6	$77.5	$81.4	$85.3	$89.1	$93.0	$96.9	$100.8	$104.6

Will update again at T-7, but its going to take a really good week to bump these numbers back up. For reference, if Flash were to follow the ATSV track (~$12-$12.5M preview), would expect its Alpha T-7 checkpoint to land north of 70K tickets. With the review embargo being lifted early, that's certainly on the table

Bump, since it’s being discussed (yet again)

[Ezen Baklattan]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Unless I'm misremembering transformers is actually surprisingly not as backloaded as one would expect in regards to IM

It's hard to compare since the IM for Last Knight, which had a five-day opening, was fairly loaded into Friday and Saturday, but it's hard to say what the sentiment is for it right now. I think in terms of IM it's maybe a fool's errand to compare to pre-pandemic, especially six years ago, but I think a lot of these numbers could be pointing to a $50m+ weekend.

[rehpyc]

Currently MTC3 T-5 sales are ~19% higher vs. The Last Knight (TLK), but the growth for RoTB was only 17.1% vs. TLK's 24.7%, so things appear to be slowing down in comparison. If things kept on the same pace, I'd say a 6.5M Thursday & 8.15x for a ~53M OW, but current growth trajectory doesn't seem to put it there.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Currently MTC3 T-5 sales are ~19% higher vs. The Last Knight (TLK), but the growth for RoTB was only 17.1% vs. TLK's 24.7%, so things appear to be slowing down in comparison. If things kept on the same pace, I'd say a 6.5M Thursday & 8.15x for a ~53M OW, but current growth trajectory doesn't seem to put it there.

Thank you. Can you update for Flash and Indy as well. 

 

The Last Knight opened at 7PM on a tuesday for 5.5m previews. 19% higher is not good at all. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by keysersoze123

[rehpyc]

The Last Knight opened on a Wednesday, so probably a bad comp. But current T-5 standings vs. BA, JW4, and FX all point towards a ~5M Thursday with at best a 8-9x OW. JW:D puts things lower.

[reddevil19]

In-between all the doom talk for Flash and Indy and the death of Transformers... can someone tell me when Barbie might go on sale? I couldn't give two shits about the Oppenheimer-Barbie war meme or whatever, but I am genuinely curious if that internet hype translates into actual tickets sold.

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Tommorow

Technically true, but only on the east coast at 12:01am.

Edited June 5, 2023 by poweranimals

[GOGODanca]

 

 

Oppenheimer (D-45) Thurs Preview:

 

242 tickets across 11 showtimes at 6 AMC's (+36 in 48.5 hours)

Edited June 5, 2023 by GOGODanca

[M37]

Thanks for those updates @rehpyc, didn't want to feel like I was the only one trying to pump the breaks on Transformers a bit

 

The thing is, EA shows make numbers wonky, in that they 1) help drive early sales generally and disproportionately in larger markets/samples inflating comp values, and then 2) including them in the total helps to drag down the growth rate vs comps as those shows either fill up and/or pass. We haven't seen a mid-range opening with EA shows since NTTD, with TGM and Batman on the high end, while a lot of smaller releases had them as well. Just look at the disparity in comp values between Denver vs usually pre-sale heavy Drafthouse (no EA), and also their growth rate (+72% for DH vs +22% for Denver since T-7)

 

In most recent updates, the EA shows account for 29-37% of overall preview sales. Looking at just Thursday sales, comp values (for which comparable data is unfortunately a bit spotty) are more in the $5-$5.5M range, and even lower vs JWD from last summer (all but one below $4.21M), but that's probably not a great comp/more of a lower bound if reviews are similarly poor. Will (hopefully) be able to provide more clarity once we get to T-2 and more comps are available

 

Overall, think a decent case can be made for $7M+ in total previews, but reaching $8M seems to be a stretch at this point in time, and with EA inflating the preview value, IM should be lower, maybe even sub-7x. Still in OW range in the $40Ms, over $50M certainly possible, but don't think the data overall supports the $60M/Fast X level numbers that have been floated

[TheFlatLannister]

EA is definitely inflating numbers (looking at the Fast X comp) without EA 

 

Transformers T-4

 

0.769x of Fast X ($5.7M Previews) 

Edited June 5, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Bob Train]

Now that Flash budget is 190m instead of 300m I think 85-90m opening would be fine. Would probably become first break even DCEU movie since the first Shazam