The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Mulder]

It's probably going to end up in the 60s. People who've tracked more intently would know better but does any kind of fresh boost ticket sales or does it have to be like a certain metric?

[Dragoncaine]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It's probably going to end up in the 60s. People who've tracked more intently would know better but does any kind of fresh boost ticket sales or does it have to be like a certain metric?

Could easily go rotten, it's only 14 reviews and that's a low avg score

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 22095/35989 435836.37 179 shows +1896

Previews(T-3) - 45353/656253 843584.49 3632 shows +6584

Friday - 37743/884633 683071.07 4712 shows +7110 

 

Fairly good day. FYI Fast at T-3. Transformers is comfortably ahead if you include fan shows. Let us see how things go. 

 

 

  

 

EA + Thurs doesn't this point to $8.8M (Fast x comp) ?

 

Or are you just looking at Thursday for Transformers (comp to Fast X T-3)?

[Porthos]

56 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It's probably going to end up in the 60s. People who've tracked more intently would know better but does any kind of fresh boost ticket sales or does it have to be like a certain metric?

 

Honestly depends on the property.  Some films/genres, even borderline rotten will give a boost.  The ol' "better than expected"/"okay, it's as good as I want out of this type of film; I'm sold" dynamic at play.

 

Naturally, the higher the RT, the higher the boost no matter what the genre.

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Porthos

[cooldude97]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Honestly depends on the property.  Some films/genres, even borderline rotten will give a boost.  The ol' "better than expected"/"okay, it's as good as I want out of this type of film; I'm sold" dynamic at play.

 

Naturally, the higher the RT, the higher the boost no matter what the genre.

 

Considering outside of Bumblebee and the first movie all the transformers movies have absolutely dog shit reviews, so even being a 60% on RT would give ROTB a decent boost

Edited June 6, 2023 by cooldude97

[Willowra]

6 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Marvels is the only real shot but I doubt it does it

The marvels can open above 120M if awareness become high, and its awareness is low for two reasons: 1. Change of title. 2. A lot of people don't consider Captain Marvel a big character, so they aren't interested in her, and they aren't aware of her movie. The first problem can't be solved now, but there are ways to solve the second problem.

[Porthos]

On 6/5/2023 at 2:16 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-4]

1696/19437 [8.73% sold] [+195 tickets]

0.32194x the sales of JWD at T-4                   [5.79m]

0.89993x the sales of Black Adam at T-4      [6.83m]

0.73579x the sales of Wick 4 at T-4               [6.55m]

0.94537x the sales of Fast X at T-4                [7.09m]

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-3]

1978/22997 [8.60% sold] [+282 tickets]

0.32624x the sales of JWD at T-3                   [5.87m]

0.91068x the sales of Black Adam at T-3       [6.92m]

0.74726x the sales of Wick 4 at T-3               [6.65m]

0.96206x the sales of Fast X at T-3                [7.22m]

Edited June 6, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18735	19527	792	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	46.86		60	1690		0/171	22094/23784	7.11%		10966	7.22%		8.44m
FX	106.17		23	746		0/182	26954/27700	2.69%		8363	9.47%		7.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     137/6084  [2.25% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 6.94% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18688	19524	836	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	48.83		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		10966	7.62%		8.79m
FX	110.73		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		8363	10.00%		8.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     141/6084  [2.32% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 6.58% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

 

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23778	25148	1370	5.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.66		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	11.65%		6.62m
BA	127.56		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	30.49%		9.69m
Shazam 2	311.36		0	440		0/109	17259/17699	2.49%		1663	82.38%		10.59m
Wick 4	102.78		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	25.15%		9.15m
AtSV	60.97		93	2247		0/129	18539/20786	10.81%		9744	14.06%		10.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     237/5286  [4.48% sold]
Matinee:    22/2140  [1.03% | 1.61% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23719	25148	1429	5.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.84		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	12.15%		6.66m
BA	127.48		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	31.80%		9.69m
Shazam 2	318.97		8	448		0/110	17370/17818	2.51%		1663	85.93%		10.85m
Wick 4	102.66		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	26.23%		9.14m
AtSV	59.52		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	14.67%		10.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     252/5286  [4.77% sold]
Matinee:    23/2140  [1.07% | 1.61% of all tickets sold]

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-3]

1696/19437 [8.73% sold] [+195 tickets]

0.32624x the sales of JWD at T-3                   [5.87m]

0.91068x the sales of Black Adam at T-3       [6.92m]

0.74726x the sales of Wick 4 at T-3               [6.65m]

0.96206x the sales of Fast X at T-3                [7.22m]

6-8 sounds about right previews wise. 45-55 is where I'm going to hedge my bet for the weekend. Maybe if WOM's good it can hit the high 50s/low 60s.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/24/2023 at 1:57 PM, across the Jat verse said:

The Flash MiniTC2 T-23

Previews - 1207/51965 (190 showings) $18,883

Weirdly LOL Comps
0.31x The Batman first day - $6.7M
3.02x Black Adam first day - $23M
9.22x Shazam!! first day - $31M

Useful Comps
0.76x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $12-14M
1.18x Eternals first day - $12.5M (inflation-adjusted)

Though Eternals' start was bigger than what it ended with, I expect this to cancel out.

FRI sales are horrible.

The Flash MiniTC2 T-10

Previews - 2650/51286 (188 showings) $39,501

Comps
0.64x Spider-Verse 2 - $11.1M
0.99x Eternals - $9.8M (inflation-adjusted)
2.43x Black Adam - $18.2M
4.93x Shazam!! - $16.8M

[charlie Jatinder]

Transformers 6 MiniTC2 T-3

 

Early shows - 1700/3946 (16 showings) $24,683
Previews - 1615/59449 (236 showings) $22,650

Comps
1.21x Fast X - $9.07M
0.81x John Wick 4 - $7.22M

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Elementals MiniTC2 T-10

 

Previews - 110/33771 (172 showings) $1264

 

Comps

0.70x Puss in Boots - $2.3M

0.16x Minions 2 - $1.7M

 

FRI - 222/65266 (297 showings) $2443

 

Comps

0.32x Minions 2 - $11.2M

[charlie Jatinder]

Indy 5 MiniTC2 T-24

 

Previews - 1176/52748 (186 showings) $17,097

 

Comps

1.32x Fast X - $9.9M

1.80x Transformers 6 - $14-16M

~0.56x Jurassic World 3 - $10.2M

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-4]

1696/19437 [8.73% sold] [+195 tickets]

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-3]

1696/19437 [8.73% sold] [+195 tickets]

 

[WebSurfer]

Heh, I wonder which movie will get the better reviews, transformers or the flash?

[M37]

17 hours ago, M37 said:

Thanks for those updates @rehpyc, didn't want to feel like I was the only one trying to pump the breaks on Transformers a bit

 

The thing is, EA shows make numbers wonky, in that they 1) help drive early sales generally and disproportionately in larger markets/samples inflating comp values, and then 2) including them in the total helps to drag down the growth rate vs comps as those shows either fill up and/or pass. We haven't seen a mid-range opening with EA shows since NTTD, with TGM and Batman on the high end, while a lot of smaller releases had them as well. Just look at the disparity in comp values between Denver vs usually pre-sale heavy Drafthouse (no EA), and also their growth rate (+72% for DH vs +22% for Denver since T-7)

 

In most recent updates, the EA shows account for 29-37% of overall preview sales. Looking at just Thursday sales, comp values (for which comparable data is unfortunately a bit spotty) are more in the $5-$5.5M range, and even lower vs JWD from last summer (all but one below $4.21M), but that's probably not a great comp/more of a lower bound if reviews are similarly poor. Will (hopefully) be able to provide more clarity once we get to T-2 and more comps are available

 

Overall, think a decent case can be made for $7M+ in total previews, but reaching $8M seems to be a stretch at this point in time, and with EA inflating the preview value, IM should be lower, maybe even sub-7x. Still in OW range in the $40Ms, over $50M certainly possible, but don't think the data overall supports the $60M/Fast X level numbers that have been floated

A trickier film to track than anticipated, but with some added comps, now even more in the range of ~$5-$6M for True Thursday, plus ~$1-1.5M for EA, grand total of $6.5-$7.5M for all Transformers previews

 

IM should be lower than 8x+ of BA and FastX given summer + EA, but how much lower isn't really clear. Have to see how walk-up friendly Thursday winds up being, and if/how much of a review bump we get

[TwoMisfits]

Posted in weekday thread...but final sets for Transformers.

 

At my locals, it only expanded 1 screen each to 3 screens, so not a big set (but at least it expanded).

And at my PLF local, it splits PLF with Spidey (with Mermaid losing it), so Transformers will not get all PLF this weekend.

 

For holdovers, Spidey keeps its same initial set at both from last Tuesday, including PLF set, so huge showing hold (it expanded in the weekend, but still has 80% of what it had by the end of the weekend).  Mermaid gets crushed for showings/screens (dropping to under 2 screens and 1 screen).  Mario gets dropped at both.  And somehow GOTG 3 and Fast X stick around on full screens with Boogeyman.  And everything else is gone.

Edited June 6, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

EA + Thurs doesn't this point to $8.8M (Fast x comp) ?

 

Or are you just looking at Thursday for Transformers (comp to Fast X T-3)?

I dont like combining EA as ratios are different. Just use thursday only ratio and add whatever it will gross on wednesday. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/5/2023 at 7:01 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC2

Wednesday - 11013/23800 173370.7 134 shows

Previews - 21118/388447 311070.45 2360 shows.   

Transformers MTC2

Wednesday - 13110/24021 206238.25 134 shows

Previews(T-3) - 26174/425475 383535.63 2738 shows