The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

On 5/31/2023 at 8:22 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	2	3	0	2
Seats Added	257	204	650	0	582
Seats Sold	1,272	1,606	1,104	1,378	1,864
5/30/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	2,687	48,819	519,794	9.39%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	2	21	52
ATP	Gross
$19.14	$934,396
The Flash Fan First Screenings in IMAX Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
5/30/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	13	13	3,381	4,478	75.50%
ATP	Gross
$23.46	$79,318

 

 

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last 5 Days
Showings Added	7
Seats Added	651
Seats Sold	10,682
6/5/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	2,694	60,817	520,445	11.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	4	36	87
ATP	Gross
$18.98	$1,154,307
The Flash Fan First Screenings in IMAX Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
6/5/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	13	13	3,580	4,478	79.95%
ATP	Gross
$23.39	$83,736

[GOGODanca]

Did we ever get an ATP for OW of guardians 3 or ATSV?

[misterpepp]

Joy Ride tix on June 9

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/5/2023 at 6:45 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	1671	23376	7.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-24

 

*GOTG3 only comp I have this far out*

 

*UNOFFICIAL*

(0.371x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

 

This is trending downwards. I wonder if any other trackers are seeing this as well. 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
122	1692	27188	6.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-23

 

Outer Orlando miniTC are finally back up so show count is going to be way up for everything 

 

(0.367x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.330x) of FAST X

~$9.9M THUR Previews

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/5/2023 at 6:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	2608	25403	10.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.429x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.5M THUR Previews

 

(0.697x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12.1M THUR Previews 

 

(1.665x) of FAST X

~$12.5M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

Transformers had me thinking about EA and growth patterns so here is just THURSDAY numbers

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-10

 

(0.388x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.8M THUR Previews

 

(0.631x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.509x) of FAST X

~$11.3M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-9 *Post-Embargo

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
152	2758	30704	8.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

150

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.444x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.706x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12.2M THUR Previews 

 

(1.721x) of FAST X

~$12.9M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-9

 

(0.404x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7M THUR Previews

 

(0.643x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$11.2M THUR Previews 

 

(1.569x) of FAST X

~$11.8M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

 

Posted a lot later than I would have liked, but scraper was acting up  

 

Anyways, a boost for sure but not sure if its substantial enough to move the needle (Still seeing $10M-$11M Previews with a chance at going a bit higher) 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/5/2023 at 6:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
83	538	12249	4.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
88	552	12809	4.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/5/2023 at 7:01 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
117	2373	24319	9.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

181

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.074x) of Fast X

~$8.0M Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-3

 

(0.744x) of Fast X

~$5.6M Previews 

 

Shoutout to @M37 from bringing this up

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2844	35537	8.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

471

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.141x) of Fast X

~$8.6M Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-2

 

(0.761x) of Fast X

~$5.7M Previews 

 

Comp AVG ~$7.1M

Right now I would say $7M +/- .5 (I would take the lower end tbh) 

 

EA is accounting for 33% of preview sales 

[John Marston]

Likelihood of Flash passing JL 2017’s 93 million opening?

[excel1]

Time for flash to accelerate. 

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Likelihood of Flash passing JL 2017’s 93 million opening?

Low

[XXR vs XXR]

44 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Likelihood of Flash passing JL 2017’s 93 million opening?

Maybe 20%? Definitely feels like it’s coalescing in the $11-13M previews range and since it’s already summer the IM is likely under 7. 
 

Despite fairly average reviews we could still get some level of beneficial bump though history tells us it’s not likely to be much given the RT score. 

[Ledmonkey96]

9 minutes ago, XXR 2099 said:

Maybe 20%? Definitely feels like it’s coalescing in the $11-13M previews range and since it’s already summer the IM is likely under 7. 
 

Despite fairly average reviews we could still get some level of beneficial bump though history tells us it’s not likely to be much given the RT score. 

IM of 7 would be decent given Elemental likely hurting it in the mornings wouldn't it?

[VanillaSkies]

20 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

So Flash is not the Greatest CBM of all time as WB had people say.

 

Shocking.

I understand what they were trying to do, but I do feel they might have shot themselves in the foot by overhyping. They set people up to expect one of the best comic book films in a decade or two, and then the reviews were just average. Could put some people off who were expecting better (because of WB!)

[Mulder]

Looking at my local for Rise of The Beasts, it looks like the early access shows really soaked up a lot of the demand. The one at my theater is sold out meanwhile there's empty Thursday showings.

[Relevation]

41 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

IM of 7 would be decent given Elemental likely hurting it in the mornings wouldn't it?

Speaking of Elemental, what internal multi could we reasonably expect there? It’ll probably be a lot less preview heavy than something like Minions 2 at 9.95x, but the summer weekdays could prevent it from getting to the level of The Bad Guys’s 21.38x IM. Something in the ballpark of 13-14x? Which off $3-4M previews gets a weekend of like $41-54M?

[filmlover]

Transformers is already rotten on RT with not even 50 reviews yet. At this point don't think anyone will be shocked to see Spider-Man still at #1 even with a 50%+ drop.

[LegionWrex]

18 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Speaking of Elemental, what internal multi could we reasonably expect there? It’ll probably be a lot less preview heavy than something like Minions 2 at 9.95x, but the summer weekdays could prevent it from getting to the level of The Bad Guys’s 21.38x IM. Something in the ballpark of 13-14x? Which off $3-4M previews gets a weekend of like $41-54M?

 

Considering how low it's tracking, I'd consider a $50+M opening to be rather impressive, all things considered.

Edited June 7, 2023 by LegionWrex

[rehpyc]

Real dirty check.. with using SV2 and FX as comps, The Flash is currently looking like 12.4 -12.6M w/ IMAX early screenings and 10.9 - 11.1M w/o. However, the screening has the ATP a bit inflated vs. comps, which I expect to normalize down going forward in comparison and likely drag that projection down a tad.

[Flopped]

39 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I understand what they were trying to do, but I do feel they might have shot themselves in the foot by overhyping. They set people up to expect one of the best comic book films in a decade or two, and then the reviews were just average. Could put some people off who were expecting better (because of WB!)

True and that's def the case for me

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Real dirty check.. with using SV2 and FX as comps, The Flash is currently looking like 12.4 -12.6M w/ IMAX early screenings and 10.9 - 11.1M w/o. However, the screening has the ATP a bit inflated vs. comps, which I expect to normalize down going forward in comparison and likely drag that projection down a tad.

2 comps that are likely to come down even before atp considerations. I am steady at 9-12 for now, we’ll see where things sit on like Friday