The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

13 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

2 comps that are likely to come down even before atp considerations. I am steady at 9-12 for now, we’ll see where things sit on like Friday

Those numbers are where I’m at too.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 22095/35989 435836.37 179 shows +1896

Previews(T-3) - 45353/656253 843584.49 3632 shows +6584

Friday - 37743/884633 683071.07 4712 shows +7110 

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 24474/35990 480055.82 179 shows +2379

Previews(T-2) - 52633/696654 972152.55 3992 shows +7280

Friday - 47688/1015411 851793.86 5859 shows +9945

 

comps with Fast X. Another good day Considering Fan shows + previews are selling more. Let us see how thursday walkups go. I am thinking 8m previews including fan shows. 

 

  

On 5/16/2023 at 9:28 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-2) - 66134/794437 1153310.00 4456 shows +8796

 

 

[GOGODanca]

how is oppenheimer chugging along?

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

So Flash is not the Greatest CBM of all time as WB had people say.

 

Shocking.

Maybe Antman 3 was ?

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 24474/35990 480055.82 179 shows +2379

Previews(T-2) - 52633/696654 972152.55 3992 shows +7280

Friday - 47688/1015411 851793.86 5859 shows +9945

 

comps with Fast X. Another good day Considering Fan shows + previews are selling more. Let us see how thursday walkups go. I am thinking 8m previews including fan shows. 

 

  

 

 

Dayum, the race for #1 will be close this weekend

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Maybe Antman 3 was ?

Imagine saying this to someone who thinks Marvel has made grand total of 3 good movies since Endgame.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 24474/35990 480055.82 179 shows +2379

Previews(T-2) - 52633/696654 972152.55 3992 shows +7280

Friday - 47688/1015411 851793.86 5859 shows +9945

 

comps with Fast X. Another good day Considering Fan shows + previews are selling more. Let us see how thursday walkups go. I am thinking 8m previews including fan shows. 

 

  

 

 

Could it maybe crawl to $50m opening with that number? 
 

That might save a bit of face. Does anyone know what the budget is for Transformers? 
 

Edit: $200m production budget 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Krissykins

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-3]

1696/19437 [8.73% sold] [+195 tickets]

0.32624x the sales of JWD at T-3                   [5.87m]

0.91068x the sales of Black Adam at T-3       [6.92m]

0.74726x the sales of Wick 4 at T-3               [6.65m]

0.96206x the sales of Fast X at T-3                [7.22m]

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-2]

2502/24862 [10.06% sold] [+524 tickets] [Wed: + 141 | Thr: + 383]

0.32624x the sales of JWD at T-3                   [6.57m]

0.91068x the sales of Black Adam at T-3       [7.40m]

0.74726x the sales of Wick 4 at T-3               [6.96m]

0.96206x the sales of Fast X at T-3                [7.87m]

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18688	19524	836	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	48.83		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		10966	7.62%		8.79m
FX	110.73		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		8363	10.00%		8.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     141/6084  [2.32% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 6.58% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18674	19521	847	4.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

11

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.91		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		10966	7.72%		8.62m
FX	110.86		9	764		0/182	26961/27725	2.76%		8363	10.13%		8.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     143/6084  [2.35% sold]
Matinee:    57/1728  [3.30% | 6.73% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23719	25148	1429	5.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.84		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	12.15%		6.66m
BA	127.48		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	31.80%		9.69m
Shazam 2	318.97		8	448		0/110	17370/17818	2.51%		1663	85.93%		10.85m
Wick 4	102.66		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	26.23%		9.14m
AtSV	59.52		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	14.67%		10.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     252/5286  [4.77% sold]
Matinee:    23/2140  [1.07% | 1.61% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

Total Showings Removed Today	3
Total Seats Removed Today	255
Total Seats Sold Today	120

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	32.26		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	13.18%		6.97m
BA	129.95		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	34.47%		9.88m
Shazam 2	342.70		4	452		0/110	17360/17812	2.54%		1663	93.14%		11.65m
Wick 4	105.88		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	28.43%		9.42m
AtSV	59.74		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	15.90%		10.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     264/5286  [4.99% sold]
Matinee:    25/2140  [1.17% | 1.61% of all tickets sold]

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

Total Showings Removed Today	3
Total Seats Removed Today	255
Total Seats Sold Today	120

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	32.26		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	13.18%		6.97m
BA	129.95		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	34.47%		9.88m
Shazam 2	342.70		4	452		0/110	17360/17812	2.54%		1663	93.14%		11.65m
Wick 4	105.88		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	28.43%		9.42m
AtSV	59.74		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	15.90%		10.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     264/5286  [4.99% sold]
Matinee:    25/2140  [1.17% | 1.61% of all tickets sold]

We'll see how it progresses, but I feel like 9-12 sounds like a safe range at this point.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Could it maybe crawl to $50m opening with that number? 
 

That might save a bit of face. Does anyone know what the budget is for Transformers? 
 

Edit: $200m production budget 

 

I would say yes. 

With possible 7.5-8M previews it only needs 7x. Easy multiplier given WOM should be decent/solid and Transformers expected healthy walkups from GA.

 

[YSLDC]

So you'll are saying Flash could open with $9M Thursday and have a X7 IM at best meaning $63M is on the table? Like a real possibility? It's sounds insane

Edited June 7, 2023 by YSLDC

[WebSurfer]

Is Elemental expected to have a larger opening than it had seemed at first?

[M37]

1 hour ago, YSLDC said:

So you'll are saying Flash could open with $9M Thursday and have a X7 IM at best meaning $63M is on the table? Like a real possibility? It's sounds insane

I really have a difficult time seeing Flash go below $10M for previews (explanation below), but that alone doesn't guarantee it tops say Black Adam for OW (but would for the opening week with boosted summer weekdays).

If that sounds "insane" perhaps its (well past) time to re-calibrate your expectations, because we have now weeks of data pointing to this range of outcomes

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$9.5	$10.0	$10.5	$11.0	$11.5	$12.0	$12.5	$13.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.25	$56.3	$59.4	$62.5	$65.6	$68.8	$71.9	$75.0	$78.1	$81.3
	6.41	$57.7	$60.9	$64.1	$67.3	$70.5	$73.7	$76.9	$80.1	$83.3
	6.56	$59.1	$62.3	$65.6	$68.9	$72.2	$75.5	$78.8	$82.0	$85.3
	6.72	$60.5	$63.8	$67.2	$70.5	$73.9	$77.3	$80.6	$84.0	$87.3
	6.88	$61.9	$65.3	$68.8	$72.2	$75.6	$79.1	$82.5	$85.9	$89.4
	7.03	$63.3	$66.8	$70.3	$73.8	$77.3	$80.9	$84.4	$87.9	$91.4
	7.19	$64.7	$68.3	$71.9	$75.5	$79.1	$82.7	$86.3	$89.8	$93.4
	7.34	$66.1	$69.8	$73.4	$77.1	$80.8	$84.5	$88.1	$91.8	$95.5
	7.50	$67.5	$71.3	$75.0	$78.8	$82.5	$86.3	$90.0	$93.8	$97.5

 

Last Alpha update was 60K sold, even with a weaker JWD path (which had BAD reviews) from there gets to ~200K final (an ATSV track would be more like 225K), and a typical DC lower PSM of like $50/tix would be $10M flat. And even if it were to fall slightly below that math, the handful of sold out fan screenings should be enough to make up the gap and get to double (technically 8 ) digits. Sliding all the way to $9.5M or below would require a very tepid finish relative to current pace that I'm not sure there's good cause to expect/project

 

Flash T-9 Forecast: $10-$12M preview, $65-$85M OW

[von Kenni]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Could it maybe crawl to $50m opening with that number? 
 

That might save a bit of face. Does anyone know what the budget is for Transformers? 
 

Edit: $200m production budget 

 

Lousy numbers in the States but there are pathways to profitability, e.g. with BO of $500m WW where just $110m from DOM, $220m OS excl. China, and $170m from China. That and good home entertainment numbers can save it. All this IF the $200m production budget and marketing combined are around $325m.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC2

Wednesday - 13110/24021 206238.25 134 shows

Previews(T-3) - 26174/425475 383535.63 2738 shows

Transformers MTC2

Wednesday - 14976/24177 235412.00 134 shows

Previews(T-2) - 33681/531189 488234.6 3896 shows +7507

Friday - 37732/661893 499040.55 4244 shows

 

its definitely weaker here relative to MTC1. But pace has picked up. Let us see how final day goes. I think reviews are good enough to take it to 50m+. 

[excel1]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I really have a difficult time seeing Flash go below $10M for previews (explanation below), but that alone doesn't guarantee it tops say Black Adam for OW (but would for the opening week with boosted summer weekdays).

If that sounds "insane" perhaps its (well past) time to re-calibrate your expectations, because we have now weeks of data pointing to this range of outcomes

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$9.5	$10.0	$10.5	$11.0	$11.5	$12.0	$12.5	$13.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.25	$56.3	$59.4	$62.5	$65.6	$68.8	$71.9	$75.0	$78.1	$81.3
	6.41	$57.7	$60.9	$64.1	$67.3	$70.5	$73.7	$76.9	$80.1	$83.3
	6.56	$59.1	$62.3	$65.6	$68.9	$72.2	$75.5	$78.8	$82.0	$85.3
	6.72	$60.5	$63.8	$67.2	$70.5	$73.9	$77.3	$80.6	$84.0	$87.3
	6.88	$61.9	$65.3	$68.8	$72.2	$75.6	$79.1	$82.5	$85.9	$89.4
	7.03	$63.3	$66.8	$70.3	$73.8	$77.3	$80.9	$84.4	$87.9	$91.4
	7.19	$64.7	$68.3	$71.9	$75.5	$79.1	$82.7	$86.3	$89.8	$93.4
	7.34	$66.1	$69.8	$73.4	$77.1	$80.8	$84.5	$88.1	$91.8	$95.5
	7.50	$67.5	$71.3	$75.0	$78.8	$82.5	$86.3	$90.0	$93.8	$97.5

 

Last Alpha update was 60K sold, even with a weaker JWD path (which had BAD reviews) from there gets to ~200K final (an ATSV track would be more like 225K), and a typical DC lower PSM of like $50/tix would be $10M flat. And even if it were to fall slightly below that math, the handful of sold out fan screenings should be enough to make up the gap and get to double (technically 8 ) digits. Sliding all the way to $9.5M or below would require a very tepid finish relative to current pace that I'm not sure there's good cause to expect/project

 

Flash T-9 Forecast: $10-$12M preview, $65-$85M OW

 

Big misread here is that Flash is going to much more walk-up heavy then people are expecting. MUCH more so than other recent comic book films. 

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by excel1

[JustLurking]

Just now, excel1 said:

 

Big misread here is that Flash is going to much more walk-up heavy then people are expecting. 

 

Why?

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Why?

The power of wishcast compels you