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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Phoenix22 said:

Yeah it looks like The Flash previews are trending slightly higher from $11M to $13M - $16M, reviews impact in 26 minutes. 

A jump from $11M to "$13-$16" would be +20-50%, so not "slight"

 

More importantly, just not what the aggregate data is showing, with most comps in the $9-$13M range (with a few way high outliers), the average floating around ~$11-$12M depending on which comps are updated each day.

 

DhRhgjt.png

 

And for the record, the comps being used here are some of the higher pace finishers in this range (like BA and ATSV), so using them as the baseline gives Flash the benefit of doubt of a very strong finish, rather than an average one like JWD for example, and it is more likely pace winds below these marks than shooting way over it

 

Reviews releasing today should help sales, but lets wait until T-7 to see whether its a single day bump or creates a sustained increase in pace

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
Just now, M37 said:

A jump from $11M to "$13-$16" would be +20-50%, so not "slight"

 

More importantly, just not what the aggregate data is showing, with most comps in the $9-$13M range (with a few way high outliers), the average floating around ~$11-$12M depending on which comps are updated each day.

 

DhRhgjt.png

 

And for the record, the comps being used here are some of the higher pace finishers in this range (like BA and ATSV), so using them as the baseline gives Flash the benefit of doubt of a very strong finish, rather than an average one like JWD for example, and it is more likely pace winds below these marks than shooting way over it

 

Reviews releasing today should help sales, but lets wait until T-7 to see whether its a single day bump or creates a sustained increase in pace

Your ability to clearly show and breakdown data's awesome.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Wednesday 5 Showings 173 +32 817
T-3 Thursday 153 Showings 705 +106 23059
0.706 Fast X T-3 5.29M

 

T-4 Friday 235 Showings 1119 +234 34374
0.615 Fast X T-4 12.62M

 

T-5 Saturday 246 Showings 767 +149 35988
0.706 Fast X T-5 15.89M

 

T-6 Sunday 244 Showings 439 +111 35774
1.092 Fast X T-6 18.02M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Wednesday 5 Showings 215 +42 817
T-2 Thursday 165 Showings 869 +164 23848
0.720 Fast X T-2 5.40M

 

T-3 Friday 267 Showings 1543 +424 37435
0.628 Fast X T-3 12.89M

 

T-4 Saturday 265 Showings 991 +224 36686
0.737 Fast X T-4 16.58M

 

T-5 Sunday 257 Showings 526 +87 35801
1.021 Fast X T-5 16.85M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 293 2188 13.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 164 1179 13.91%

 

Monday: 217(+6)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1018 80 20101 5.06% 13 108

 

0.656 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 11.37M
1.989 Black Adam T-10 15.11M
0.234 Thor L&T T-10 6.78M
0.784 Eternals T-10 7.45M

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 303 2188 13.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 172 1179 14.59%

 

Monday: 223(+6)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1072 54 20101 5.33% 13 108

 

0.652 Across the Spider-Verse T-9 11.31M
0.353 Ant-Man 3 T-9 6.17M
1.924 Black Adam T-9 14.62M
0.237 Thor L&T T-9 6.88M
0.322 Batman T-9 6.96M
0.782 Eternals T-9 7.43M

 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-10 Thursday 120 Showings 2630 +164 19535 ATP: 15.72
0.525 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 9.10M
1.804 Black Adam T-10 13.71M
0.206 Thor L&T T-10 5.99M
0.529 Eternals T-10 5.02M

 

T-11 Friday 154 Showings 1816 +110 25648 ATP: 16.14
0.398 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 13.75M
1.486 Black Adam T-11 28.37M
0.171 Thor L&T T-11 6.93M
0.412 Eternals T-11 8.80M

 

T-12 Saturday 152 Showings 1643 +92 25355 ATP: 15.31
0.361 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 13.51M
1.299 Black Adam T-12 30.79M
0.163 Thor L&T T-12 6.86M
0.366 Eternals T-12 8.83M

 

T-13 Sunday 137 Showings 704 +44 23472 ATP: 14.31
0.257 Across the Spider-Verse T-13 8.04M
1.600 Black Adam T-13 26.56M
0.127 Thor L&T T-13 4.13M
0.268 Eternals T-13 4.38M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday 119 Showings 2802 +172 19296 ATP: 15.66
0.533 Across the Spider-Verse T-9 9.24M
0.251 Ant-Man 3 T-9 4.39M
1.801 Black Adam T-9 13.69M
0.214 Thor L&T T-9 6.21M
0.289 The Batman T-9 5.09M
0.547 Eternals T-9 5.20M

 

T-10 Friday 154 Showings 1935 +119 25508 ATP: 16.10
0.399 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 13.78M
0.192 Ant-Man 3 T-10 5.57M
1.437 Black Adam T-10 27.42M
0.175 Thor L&T T-10 7.09M
0.197 The Batman T-10 6.92M
0.418 Eternals T-10 8.91M

 

T-11 Saturday 152 Showings 1742 +99 25355 ATP: 15.36
0.370 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 13.82M
0.170 Ant-Man 3 T-11 5.75M
1.276 Black Adam T-11 30.26M
0.167 Thor L&T T-11 7.03M
0.181 The Batman T-11 7.84M
0.371 Eternals T-11 8.94M

 

T-12 Sunday 137 Showings 763 +59 23472 ATP: 14.39
0.265 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 8.27M
0.155 Ant-Man 3 T-12 4.00M
1.692 Black Adam T-12 28.09M
0.132 Thor L&T T-12 4.29M
0.181 The Batman T-12 6.18M
0.278 Eternals T-12 4.54M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-10 Thursday 140 Showings 1207 +53 21583
0.793 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 13.75M

 

T-11 Friday 224 Showings 718 +49 34205
0.490 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 16.91M

 

T-12 Saturday 217 Showings 561 +62 33563
0.724 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 27.07M

 

T-13 Sunday 211 Showings 217 +12 32641
0.693 Across the Spider-Verse T-13 21.67M

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Thursday 140 Showings 1285 +78 21597
0.762 Across the Spider-Verse T-9 13.22M

 

T-10 Friday 224 Showings 817 +99 34431
0.512 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 17.66M

 

T-11 Saturday 217 Showings 597 +36 33582
0.689 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 25.75M

 

T-12 Sunday 210 Showings 260 +43 32463
0.767 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 23.97M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 121 2338 5.18%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 162 1365 11.87%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
554 19 20226 2.74% 13 102

 

0.398 JW Dominion T-24 7.16M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 123 2338 5.26%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 161 1365 11.79%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
560 6 20094 2.79% 13 102

 

0.397 JW Dominion T-23 7.14M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-24 Thursday 113 Showings 3732 +54 18505 ATP: 15.57
1.14 JW Dominion T-24 20.51M

 

T-25 Friday 157 Showings 2988 +51 26273 ATP: 15.49
1.13 JW Dominion T-25 47.18M

 

T-26 Saturday 158 Showings 2962 +90 26610 ATP: 14.75
1.06 JW Dominion T-26 49.64M

 

T-27 Sunday 141 Showings 1463 +33 23934 ATP: 14.23
1.33 JW Dominion T-27 51.43M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-23 Thursday 113 Showings 3754 +22 18505 ATP: 15.58
1.09 JW Dominion T-23 19.57M

 

T-24 Friday 157 Showings 3031 +43 26273 ATP: 15.50
1.09 JW Dominion T-24 45.15M

 

T-25 Saturday 158 Showings 3011 +49 26508 ATP: 14.77
1.04 JW Dominion T-25 48.94M

 

T-26 Sunday 141 Showings 1507 +44 23934 ATP: 14.22
1.30 JW Dominion T-26 50.23M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-24 Thursday 143 Showings 689 +13 22081

 

T-25 Friday 232 Showings 260 +35 35325

 

T-26 Saturday 228 Showings 144 +11 34892

 

T-27 Sunday 226 Showings 66 +9 34212

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-23 Thursday 143 Showings 721 +32 22139

 

T-24 Friday 232 Showings 269 +9 35338

 

T-25 Saturday 228 Showings 161 +17 34905

 

T-26 Sunday 226 Showings 71 +5 34225
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Your ability to clearly show and breakdown data's awesome.

Thank you! I'm very much a visual learner, so it helps me very much to "see" the data rather than just read it

Haven't whipped out the chart much recently, in large part because comps have been lacking as new trackers have taken it up while others have taken breaks, but have enough data points for this title - as well as a parade of people parachuting in to make unfounded proclamations - that thought it was time to dust it off

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, M37 said:

Reviews releasing today should help sales, but lets wait until T-7 to see whether its a single day bump or creates a sustained increase in pace

 

(keeping this in the Tracking thread as this actually is about tracking!!! :o :o :o :o )

 

As I was saying Off Forum a little while ago, I think how one reacts to the RT rollout in regards to tracking (and please keep RT comments themselves/comments surrounding the film over there.  PLEASE) depends on how one is looking at the data/expectations.

 

If one was looking at the current/recent pace, then the reviews should be good enough to give a boost in pre-sales.  Perhaps even a sustained boost (at least over what would have happened if it was rotten/in the 40s-50s).

If one was looking for some of the early expectations by Those Ever Nebulous "Some Folks Out There" of 100m+/110m+???  Perhaps not.

 

Won't know until the actual data starts to roll in. 

 

So when I say over in The Flash thread that the current reviews are "Good Enough" I mean in the context of boosting sales over their current level.  

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 261 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 247 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 37 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 29 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 73 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 255 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 548 (19 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.450.

Comps: JW: D (18M from previews) had also on Tuesday of the release week 3.483 sold tickets = ca. 7-8M from previews for Transformers.
Uncharted (3.7M) had 1 day later, on Wednesday of the release week, 1.062 sold tickets = ca. 5.1M plus 1 day = ca. 6.5M.
And Ghostbusters: Afterlife had also 1 day later 1.221 sold tickets = ca. 5.4M plus 1 day = ca. 7M.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Austin said:

I'm no expert in this tracking stuff, but from what I'm seeing Transformers is trending upwards in the past few days?

Slightly though I think a lot of us expected this. Looking more like high 40s to mid 50s now vs the initial thoughts of sub-40. Still not enough (in my opinion) to classify it as 'good' but it's not the disaster some people were expecting.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Slightly though I think a lot of us expected this. Looking more like high 40s to mid 50s now vs the initial thoughts of sub-40. Still not enough (in my opinion) to classify it as 'good' but it's not the disaster some people were expecting.

To add on to this, I think Rise of The Beasts' OW is whatever. It could only do so much and as long as it's above like 45 imo it's fine. I think the more important thing to look at is the overseas numbers (Which have been the big thing Transformers-wise) and then after that how legs are. If next weekend it only has a lets say 50-55% drop against Flash's OW then that's good signs for its future. If it's more like 56-65% then well...yeah.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

Transformers counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 307 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 177 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 34 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 34 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 215 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 308 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.090.
Comps: JW: D (125M OW) had on the same day, Tuesday of the release week, 4.168 sold tickets - that comps doesn't look good, 33M for Transformers.
SC (75.5M) had also on the same day 1.418 sold tickets.
And Uncharted (44M) had 1 day later 982 sold tickets.

 

Pretty uneven from the comps but at least two point to more than 50M OW.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

(keeping this in the Tracking thread as this actually is about tracking!!! :o :o :o :o )

 

As I was saying Off Forum a little while ago, I think how one reacts to the RT rollout in regards to tracking (and please keep RT comments themselves/comments surrounding the film over there.  PLEASE) depends on how one is looking at the data/expectations.

 

If one was looking at the current/recent pace, then the reviews should be good enough to give a boost in pre-sales.  Perhaps even a sustained boost (at least over what would have happened if it was rotten/in the 40s-50s).

If one was looking for some of the early expectations by Those Ever Nebulous "Some Folks Out There" of 100m+/110m+???  Perhaps not.

 

Won't know until the actual data starts to roll in. 

 

So when I say over in The Flash thread that the current reviews are "Good Enough" I mean in the context of boosting sales over their current level.  

I mean I don't know if there was a case where reviews didn't boost the pace. Even Eternals saw a minor boost. But the films that Flash is being comped to for the double digit previews values (SV, Black Adam) finished pretty well so it'll need a pretty strong boost to keep up.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Free fan screenings for Flash happening tomorrow

 

https://thedirect.com/article/the-flash-movie-free-early-screenings

 

Similar strategy as used for GOTG3. Not sure if its a high enough volume to impact tracking, being limited to only about 20 theatres nationwide.

I am seeing one at nearby AMC. I saw Guardians as well friday before release. Nothing beats free tickets :-)

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
On 6/1/2023 at 8:54 AM, ZackM said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 1 4 0 0
Seats Added 0 208 964 0 0
Seats Sold 504 396 432 389 393
           
5/31/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 417 2,459 22,414 502,491 4.46%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 1 3 5 10
           
ATP Gross        
$18.88 $423,176        

 

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days
           
  Last 5 Days        
Showings Added 0        
Seats Added 0        
Seats Sold 3,241        
           
6/5/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 417 2,459 25,655 502,491 5.11%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 1 3 8 11
           
ATP Gross        
$18.84 $483,340        
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