The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC2

Wednesday - 14976/24177 235412.00 134 shows

Previews(T-2) - 33681/531189 488234.6 3896 shows +7507

Friday - 37732/661893 499040.55 4244 shows

 

its definitely weaker here relative to MTC1. But pace has picked up. Let us see how final day goes. I think reviews are good enough to take it to 50m+. 

 

If one movie breaks out, MTC 2 does tend to have early weakness for the rest of the movies that month b/c of their subscriber set up.  I'd expect almost all of the remaining June movies to look less positive in presales for MTC 2 vs 1 until day of until we hit June 30 (for the subscription rollover)...

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Fairly limited review bump for Flash considering that this is the point in time where you'd expect to see bumps anyway. Will wait for tomorrow to see how it holds to take any hard conclusions from it, but it's not in a good spot considering it has no more catalysts until release. 

I suspect the excess of early screenings and constant new reactions for the past month probably diluted the impact of the reviews (especially because while good, they didn’t match the glowing reactions).

[cooldude97]

wonder if opening relatively low compared to the other blockbusters around it could help Transformer's legs if WOM is good after the first weekend ( an A CinemaScore) 

[Dragoncaine]

16 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Fairly limited review bump for Flash considering that this is the point in time where you'd expect to see bumps anyway. Will wait for tomorrow to see how it holds to take any hard conclusions from it, but it's not in a good spot considering it has no more catalysts until release. 

Penciling in a $65-70m OW

[CJohn]

Everything about the Transformers reviews screams like it is gonna fade fast like Shazam.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I will also note that Flash sales trend is pretty frontloaded to Thu in Drafthouse relative to Spiderverse, which also matches what I can see in other samples. I think it's quite possible that the IM is more like 6, with the caveat that smaller sales makes it harder to project farther out into the weekend. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

wonder if opening relatively low compared to the other blockbusters around it could help Transformer's legs if WOM is good after the first weekend ( an A CinemaScore) 

Opening lowers always helps legs because it doesn't take as much $ to have a decent multiplier from the OW DOM. Unfortunately, I see it having FX type legs. It'll come and go like a fart in the wind. I'm looking forward to it though.

[cooldude97]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Opening lowers always helps legs because it doesn't take as much $ to have a decent multiplier from the OW DOM. Unfortunately, I see it having FX type legs. It'll come and go like a fart in the wind. I'm looking forward to it though.

to be fair fast x's legs being terrible isn't surprising considering its B+ score which is pretty bad for high-budget blockbusters 

[Maggie]

Deadline says 50+ for Transformers. Quite a fall from 70M tracking a few weeks ago

 

Quote

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is tracking strong with Hispanic, Latino and Black audiences stateside and is bound to be fighting over the No. 1 parking space atop the box office against Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse‘s second weekend, both looking at $50M+.

https://deadline.com/2023/06/transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-box-office-projection-2-1235410437/

[GOGODanca]

Deadline reading this thread i see

[GOGODanca]

Oppenheimer (D-43):

 

147 tickets sold at 9 Cinemark's (+9)

298 tickets sold at 7 AMC's (+30)

 

 

 

 

 

[GOGODanca]

Flash (D-8)

 

1375 tickets sold at 10 AMC's (+86 in about 23 hours)

[Dragoncaine]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

I will also note that Flash sales trend is pretty frontloaded to Thu in Drafthouse relative to Spiderverse, which also matches what I can see in other samples. I think it's quite possible that the IM is more like 6, with the caveat that smaller sales makes it harder to project farther out into the weekend. 

Paging @Into the Legion-Verse

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Paging @Into the Legion-Verse

I mean we're making similar conclusions from the same data pretty much.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Dragoncaine]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I mean we're making similar conclusions from the same data pretty much.

Right, it just feels like Legion has been on this train for a while now. Props to both of you if it pans out!

Edited June 7, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[El Gato]

So looking at the data being posted here, so far Flash is looking like a disappointment? That sucks, DC needs a win after the last 5 years worth of disappointments. 
 

Now I’m extremely worried about Blue Beetle, if Flash is struggling, can’t imagine he’ll do any better, even with the Latino angle going for it. When do films usually start presales? Need to prepare for the worst when it comes to Blue Beetle (he’s my fav DC character, other than Raven). 

[vafrow]

I'm looking at my Rise of the Beast numbers and it continues to look disappointing, and behind what the bigger trackers are seeing here.

 

Then I compared it to Little Mermaid. I haven't used that as a comp because it under indexed so badly in Canada. But, my theatres sales for Rise of the Beasts aligns pretty closely with Mermaid.

 

I have no idea how to really interpret that. But, it was striking when I compared it.

[Phoenix22]

24 minutes ago, El Gato said:

So looking at the data being posted here, so far Flash is looking like a disappointment? That sucks, DC needs a win after the last 5 years worth of disappointments. 
 

Now I’m extremely worried about Blue Beetle, if Flash is struggling, can’t imagine he’ll do any better, even with the Latino angle going for it. When do films usually start presales? Need to prepare for the worst when it comes to Blue Beetle (he’s my fav DC character, other than Raven). 

 

I mean Joker did $1.1B in 2019 and The Batman $771M and #7 WW last year so not exactly 5 years of bombs.

 

I still have hope for the data to end up with previews of $12.5M and OW of $75M - $85M, Father's day could give it an extra bump but then the next weekend the drop could be bigger because of this extra factor. 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

32 minutes ago, El Gato said:

Now I’m extremely worried about Blue Beetle, if Flash is struggling, can’t imagine he’ll do any better, even with the Latino angle going for it. When do films usually start presales? Need to prepare for the worst when it comes to Blue Beetle (he’s my fav DC character, other than Raven)

we have no tracking for it yet, of course, but the relative interest and awareness metrics make me think the OW will begin with a 4..

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, XXR 2099 said:

we have no tracking for it yet, of course, but the relative interest and awareness metrics make me think the OW will begin with a 4..

4.5 OW