The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

Eric the Ape · June 7, 2023

On 6/6/2023 at 11:49 AM, Eric 2099 said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 106 1576 18001 8.76%

Comp - T-3

2.814x of Uncharted (10.41M)

0.507x of Jurassic World 3 (9.12M)

0.984x of Black Adam (7.48M)

0.428x of Avatar 2 (7.27M)

0.898x of John Wick 4 (8M)

0.847x of Dungeons and Dragons (4.74M)

1.124x of Fast X (8.43M)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	106	1795	18001	9.97%

Total Seats Sold Today: 219

Comp - T-2

2.598x of Uncharted (9.61M)

0.513x of Jurassic World 3 (9.23M)

0.931x of Black Adam (7.08M)

0.440x of Avatar 2 (7.48M)

0.877x of John Wick 4 (7.8M)

0.901x of Dungeons and Dragons (5.05M)

1.068x of Fast X (8.01M)

Menor the Destroyer · June 7, 2023

Beetle trailer isn't far below Flash in YouTube likes (and well ahead of the likes of Shazam) I don't think that Flash not being huge means it will flop. Standalone DC films can sometimes do surprisingly well if they strike a chord even when the universe stuff does worse than expected.

Eric the Ape · June 7, 2023

On 6/6/2023 at 12:21 PM, Eric 2099 said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 1760 18907 9.31%

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

Comp - T-10

0.327x of The Batman (7.07M)

0.905x of Jurassic World 3 (16.29M)

0.287x of Thor 4 (8.32M)

2.175x of Black Adam (16.53M)

0.803x of Avatar 2 (13.65M)

0.386x of Ant-Man 3 (6.76M)

0.503x of Guardians 3 (8.8M)

0.906x of Spider-Verse (15.72M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1809	18907	9.57%

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

Comp - T-9

0.326x of The Batman (7.04M)

0.897x of Jurassic World 3 (16.14M)

0.287x of Thor 4 (8.32M)

2.113x of Black Adam (16.06M)

0.778x of Avatar 2 (13.22M)

0.384x of Ant-Man 3 (6.73M)

0.497x of Guardians 3 (8.7M)

0.870x of Spider-Verse (15.1M)

Dragoncaine · June 7, 2023

11 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 1809 18907 9.57%

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

Comp - T-9

0.326x of The Batman (7.04M)

0.897x of Jurassic World 3 (16.14M)

0.287x of Thor 4 (8.32M)

2.113x of Black Adam (16.06M)

0.778x of Avatar 2 (13.22M)

0.384x of Ant-Man 3 (6.73M)

0.497x of Guardians 3 (8.7M)

0.870x of Spider-Verse (15.1M)

Oh no

21C · June 7, 2023

25 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 1809 18907 9.57%

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

Comp - T-9

0.326x of The Batman (7.04M)

0.897x of Jurassic World 3 (16.14M)

0.287x of Thor 4 (8.32M)

2.113x of Black Adam (16.06M)

0.778x of Avatar 2 (13.22M)

0.384x of Ant-Man 3 (6.73M)

0.497x of Guardians 3 (8.7M)

0.870x of Spider-Verse (15.1M)

Still new to reading these comps. Still pointing to 65-85 million opening?

excel1 · June 7, 2023

27 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 1809 18907 9.57%

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

Comp - T-9

0.897x of Jurassic World 3 (16.14M)

2.113x of Black Adam (16.06M)

0.778x of Avatar 2 (13.22M)

0.870x of Spider-Verse (15.1M)

Thinking it comes in a bit above this range.

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 286 3169 9.02%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 234 1750 13.37%

Wednesday: 732(+94)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1190 148 20312 5.86% 13 119

1.496 Fast X T-2 11.22M
1.206 Black Adam T-2 9.16M
0.438 JW Dominion T-2 7.88M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

342

3169

10.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

256

1843

13.89%

Wednesday: 924(+192)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1445	305	21924	6.59%	13	135

1.584	Fast X T-1	11.88M
1.250	Black Adam T-1	9.50M
0.470	JW Dominion T-1	8.46M

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Thursday 159 Showings 2134 +409 21215 ATP: 14.48
0.599 Fast X T-2 4.49M
0.522 Black Adam T-2 3.97M
0.217 JW Dominion T-2 3.91M

T-3 Friday 199 Showings 2100 +517 26060 ATP: 14.55
0.535 Fast X T-3 10.98M
0.497 Black Adam T-3 9.49M
0.180 JW Dominion T-3 7.50M

T-4 Saturday 197 Showings 1525 +332 25845 ATP: 14.07
0.586 Fast X T-4 13.18M
0.403 Black Adam T-4 9.55M
0.133 JW Dominion T-4 6.23M

T-5 Sunday 179 Showings 741 +170 23662 ATP: 13.27
0.692 Fast X T-5 11.42M
0.515 Black Adam T-5 8.55M
0.119 JW Dominion T-5 4.58M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday

159 Showings

2669

+535

21231

ATP:

14.46

0.648	Fast X T-1	4.86M
0.579	Black Adam T-1	4.40M
0.234	JW Dominion T-1	4.22M

T-2 Friday

204 Showings

2705

+605

26665

ATP:

14.43

0.560	Fast X T-2	11.50M
0.537	Black Adam T-2	10.26M
0.188	JW Dominion T-2	7.80M

T-3 Saturday

204 Showings

1949

+424

26698

ATP:

13.97

0.612	Fast X T-3	13.77M
0.442	Black Adam T-3	10.49M
0.144	JW Dominion T-3	6.77M

T-4 Sunday

185 Showings

942

+201

24534

ATP:

13.19

0.709	Fast X T-4	11.70M
0.534	Black Adam T-4	8.87M
0.118	JW Dominion T-4	4.56M

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Wednesday 5 Showings 215 +42 817
T-2 Thursday 165 Showings 869 +164 23848
0.720 Fast X T-2 5.40M

T-3 Friday 267 Showings 1543 +424 37435
0.628 Fast X T-3 12.89M

T-4 Saturday 265 Showings 991 +224 36686
0.737 Fast X T-4 16.58M

T-5 Sunday 257 Showings 526 +87 35801
1.021 Fast X T-5 16.85M

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Wednesday	4 Showings	345	+130	647
T-1 Thursday	172 Showings	1125	+256	24183

0.793

Fast X T-1

5.95M

T-2 Friday

296 Showings

2175

+632

40413

0.686

Fast X T-2

14.08M

T-3 Saturday

296 Showings

1310

+319

40301

0.752

Fast X T-3

16.92M

T-4 Sunday

284 Showings

667

+141

38877

1.005

Fast X T-4

16.57M

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 303 2188 13.85%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 172 1179 14.59%

Monday: 223(+6)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1072 54 20101 5.33% 13 108

0.652 Across the Spider-Verse T-9 11.31M
0.353 Ant-Man 3 T-9 6.17M
1.924 Black Adam T-9 14.62M
0.237 Thor L&T T-9 6.88M
0.322 Batman T-9 6.96M
0.782 Eternals T-9 7.43M

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

318

2188

14.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

176

1179

14.93%

Monday: 225(+2)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1129	57	20101	5.62%	13	108

0.647

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

11.22M

0.352

Ant-Man 3 T-8

6.17M

0.240

Thor L&T T-8

6.96M

0.787

Eternals T-8

7.47M

ZeeSoh · June 7, 2023

26 minutes ago, 21C said:

Still new to reading these comps. Still pointing to 65-85 million opening?

That data is simply for the preview and even then there is a huge difference depending on the comps being used with one pointing out to less than 7 and another in the 16's. Best thing to do would be take an average of all the comps by all the users tracking it and see where that points. I believe @M37 has excellent chart and table posted in this thread which does just that.

But getting a preview range is just half the picture, the other half depends on its preview to OW multiplier. Since it is summer and its CBM the multiplier is likely to be low, in the 6-7 range I think. But overall yeah I think 65-85 range seems very likely atm.

VanillaSkies · June 7, 2023

7 hours ago, excel1 said:

Trend with non-Batman DC films, trend with popcorn crowd pleaser films, Fathers day weekend, etc. Multiplier is going to be on high-end no doubt.

Man of Steel, all of the Jurassic Worlds, Wonder Woman all did same with June releases. Wonder Woman was projected for like $65m shortly before release. 😂

Where were all those walk ups for The Suicide Squad? If anything, those tepid reviews will solidify people like myself not going. I’ve been disappointed too many times by DC recently (I actually saw TSS in theaters opening weekend) and knowing that they are going to reboot anyways, I’m saving my cash for other things.

That’s my two cents. Maybe you’ll be right and it will have ridiculous walk ups, but past data doesn’t suggest that for a movie like this.

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday 119 Showings 2802 +172 19296 ATP: 15.66
0.533 Across the Spider-Verse T-9 9.24M
0.251 Ant-Man 3 T-9 4.39M
1.801 Black Adam T-9 13.69M
0.214 Thor L&T T-9 6.21M
0.289 The Batman T-9 5.09M
0.547 Eternals T-9 5.20M

T-10 Friday 154 Showings 1935 +119 25508 ATP: 16.10
0.399 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 13.78M
0.192 Ant-Man 3 T-10 5.57M
1.437 Black Adam T-10 27.42M
0.175 Thor L&T T-10 7.09M
0.197 The Batman T-10 6.92M
0.418 Eternals T-10 8.91M

T-11 Saturday 152 Showings 1742 +99 25355 ATP: 15.36
0.370 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 13.82M
0.170 Ant-Man 3 T-11 5.75M
1.276 Black Adam T-11 30.26M
0.167 Thor L&T T-11 7.03M
0.181 The Batman T-11 7.84M
0.371 Eternals T-11 8.94M

T-12 Sunday 137 Showings 763 +59 23472 ATP: 14.39
0.265 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 8.27M
0.155 Ant-Man 3 T-12 4.00M
1.692 Black Adam T-12 28.09M
0.132 Thor L&T T-12 4.29M
0.181 The Batman T-12 6.18M
0.278 Eternals T-12 4.54M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Thursday

132 Showings

2944

+142

21027

ATP:

15.68

0.527

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

9.15M

0.255

Ant-Man 3 T-8

4.47M

0.218

Thor L&T T-8

6.32M

0.553

Eternals T-8

5.26M

T-9 Friday

154 Showings

2078

+143

25644

ATP:

16.03

0.399

Across the Spider-Verse T-9

13.77M

0.198

Ant-Man 3 T-9

5.73M

0.181

Thor L&T T-9

7.34M

0.430

Eternals T-9

9.17M

T-10 Saturday

152 Showings

1883

+141

25352

ATP:

15.34

0.376

Across the Spider-Verse T-10

14.05M

0.176

Ant-Man 3 T-10

5.98M

0.173

Thor L&T T-10

7.30M

0.385

Eternals T-10

9.28M

T-11 Sunday

137 Showings

830

+67

23469

ATP:

14.46

0.264

Across the Spider-Verse T-11

8.26M

0.160

Ant-Man 3 T-11

4.13M

0.137

Thor L&T T-11

4.46M

0.290

Eternals T-11

4.73M

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Thursday 140 Showings 1285 +78 21597
0.762 Across the Spider-Verse T-9 13.22M

T-10 Friday 224 Showings 817 +99 34431
0.512 Across the Spider-Verse T-10 17.66M

T-11 Saturday 217 Showings 597 +36 33582
0.689 Across the Spider-Verse T-11 25.75M

T-12 Sunday 210 Showings 260 +43 32463
0.767 Across the Spider-Verse T-12 23.97M

The Flash Emagine Entertainment

T-8 Thursday

142 Showings

1376

+91

22048

0.740

Across the Spider-Verse T-8

12.84M

T-9 Friday

224 Showings

870

+53

34429

0.494

Across the Spider-Verse T-9

17.04M

T-10 Saturday

217 Showings

634

+37

33578

0.674

Across the Spider-Verse T-10

25.23M

T-11 Sunday

210 Showings

281

+21

32461

0.792

Across the Spider-Verse T-11

24.74M

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 123 2338 5.26%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 161 1365 11.79%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
560 6 20094 2.79% 13 102

0.397 JW Dominion T-23 7.14M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

131

2338

5.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

164

1365

12.01%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
576	16	20094	2.87%	13	102

0.396

JW Dominion T-22

7.14M

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-23 Thursday 113 Showings 3754 +22 18505 ATP: 15.58
1.09 JW Dominion T-23 19.57M

T-24 Friday 157 Showings 3031 +43 26273 ATP: 15.50
1.09 JW Dominion T-24 45.15M

T-25 Saturday 158 Showings 3011 +49 26508 ATP: 14.77
1.04 JW Dominion T-25 48.94M

T-26 Sunday 141 Showings 1507 +44 23934 ATP: 14.22
1.30 JW Dominion T-26 50.23M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday

113 Showings

3803

+49

18502

ATP:

15.56

1.06

JW Dominion T-22

19.15M

T-23 Friday

157 Showings

3113

+82

26270

ATP:

15.49

1.07

JW Dominion T-23

44.41M

T-24 Saturday

158 Showings

3107

+96

26606

ATP:

14.76

1.04

JW Dominion T-24

48.63M

T-25 Sunday

141 Showings

1538

+31

23931

ATP:

14.24

1.31

JW Dominion T-25

50.44M

vafrow · June 7, 2023

1 hour ago, Eric 2099 said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 1809 18907 9.57%

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

Comp - T-9

0.326x of The Batman (7.04M)

0.897x of Jurassic World 3 (16.14M)

0.287x of Thor 4 (8.32M)

2.113x of Black Adam (16.06M)

0.778x of Avatar 2 (13.22M)

0.384x of Ant-Man 3 (6.73M)

0.497x of Guardians 3 (8.7M)

0.870x of Spider-Verse (15.1M)

Going backwards against all comps on the day after your review embargo isn't a great trend.

Inceptionzq · June 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-23 Thursday 143 Showings 721 +32 22139

T-24 Friday 232 Showings 269 +9 35338

T-25 Saturday 228 Showings 161 +17 34905

T-26 Sunday 226 Showings 71 +5 34225

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-22 Thursday

143 Showings

738

+17

22137

T-23 Friday

232 Showings

295

+26

35334

T-24 Saturday

228 Showings

165

+4

34901

T-25 Sunday

226 Showings

71

+0

34222

Dragoncaine · June 7, 2023

16 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Going backwards against all comps on the day after your review embargo isn't a great trend.

Defcon 3 moment for me lol. I really think the excessive # of hyped screenings and reactions happening for a month straight, combined with decent but not great reviews, will result in a slowdown near the end instead of a ramp up. People have had arguably too much time to digest all of the flashy reactions instead of concentrating it all to the final 2-3 weeks.

vafrow · June 7, 2023

1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:

Defcon 3 moment for me lol. I really think the excessive # of hyped screenings and reactions happening for a month straight, combined with decent but not great reviews, will result in a slowdown near the end instead of a ramp up. People have had arguably too much time to digest all of the flashy reactions instead of concentrating it all to the final 2-3 weeks.

You still need to give it another day or two. Not everyone is waiting on review drops.

It just jumps out that it was similar across all comps, when you'd expect to see more of a convergence towards a midpoint.

But I do agree that the early reactions has diluted any impact of a review embargo.

1.496	Fast X T-2	11.22M
1.206	Black Adam T-2	9.16M
0.438	JW Dominion T-2	7.88M

0.599	Fast X T-2	4.49M
0.522	Black Adam T-2	3.97M
0.217	JW Dominion T-2	3.91M

0.535	Fast X T-3	10.98M
0.497	Black Adam T-3	9.49M
0.180	JW Dominion T-3	7.50M

0.586	Fast X T-4	13.18M
0.403	Black Adam T-4	9.55M
0.133	JW Dominion T-4	6.23M

0.692	Fast X T-5	11.42M
0.515	Black Adam T-5	8.55M
0.119	JW Dominion T-5	4.58M

T-1 Wednesday	5 Showings	215	+42	817
T-2 Thursday	165 Showings	869	+164	23848

0.353	Ant-Man 3 T-9	6.17M
1.924	Black Adam T-9	14.62M
0.237	Thor L&T T-9	6.88M
0.322	Batman T-9	6.96M
0.782	Eternals T-9	7.43M

0.251	Ant-Man 3 T-9	4.39M
1.801	Black Adam T-9	13.69M
0.214	Thor L&T T-9	6.21M
0.289	The Batman T-9	5.09M
0.547	Eternals T-9	5.20M

0.192	Ant-Man 3 T-10	5.57M
1.437	Black Adam T-10	27.42M
0.175	Thor L&T T-10	7.09M
0.197	The Batman T-10	6.92M
0.418	Eternals T-10	8.91M

0.170	Ant-Man 3 T-11	5.75M
1.276	Black Adam T-11	30.26M
0.167	Thor L&T T-11	7.03M
0.181	The Batman T-11	7.84M
0.371	Eternals T-11	8.94M

0.155	Ant-Man 3 T-12	4.00M
1.692	Black Adam T-12	28.09M
0.132	Thor L&T T-12	4.29M
0.181	The Batman T-12	6.18M
0.278	Eternals T-12	4.54M

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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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