The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Why?

 

Trend with non-Batman DC films, trend with popcorn crowd pleaser films, Fathers day weekend, etc. Multiplier is going to be on high-end no doubt.

 

Man of Steel, all of the Jurassic Worlds, Wonder Woman all did same with June releases. Wonder Woman was projected for like $65m shortly before release. 😂

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Could it maybe crawl to $50m opening with that number? 
 

That might save a bit of face. Does anyone know what the budget is for Transformers? 
 

Edit: $200m production budget 

I think so. 

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Why?

I guess he thinks Keaton fans are gonna come out in droves which is probably what WB is praying for

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

I guess he thinks Keaton fans are gonna come out in droves which is probably what WB is praying for

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Trend with non-Batman DC films, trend with popcorn crowd pleaser films, Fathers day weekend, etc. Multiplier is going to be on high-end no doubt.

 

Man of Steel, all of the Jurassic Worlds, Wonder Woman all did same with June releases. Wonder Woman was projected for like $65m shortly before release. 😂

Trades underestimating WW means nothing as far as tracking thread is concerned. The same trades were saying 80M OW for spiderverse just a week ago while this thread had correctly pinned it at 120+.

 

DC films are definitely more walkup heavy than MCU counterparts but that is already built in in everyone's projections.

[von Kenni]

I think Keaton fans like myself are not running for the opening but could give better legs IF he gets enough screentime and WOM is good enough. That'll be more clear after the OW and I might just then get my ass to the theater to see it.

Edited June 7, 2023 by von Kenni

[Ohana]

3 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

I think Keaton fans like myself are not running for the opening but could give better legs IF he gets enough screentime and WOM is good enough. That'll be more clear after the OW and I might just then get my ass to the theater to see it.

He's in one hour of the movie.

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, Ohana said:

He's in one hour of the movie.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/6/2023 at 10:28 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-9	Jax	6	62	17	432	9,790	4.41%
		Phx	6	48	9	500	8,749	5.71%
		Ral	8	62	26	381	8,640	4.41%
	Total		20	172	52	1,313	27,179	4.83%
Transformers 6	T-2	Jax	5	55	73	436	9,013	4.84%
		Phx	6	56	57	439	10,104	4.34%
		Ral	8	52	54	367	6,776	5.42%
	Total		19	163	184	1,242	25,893	4.80%
Transformers EA	T-1	Jax	5	7	91	495	1,216	40.71%
		Phx	1	1	6	163	208	78.37%
		Ral	1	1	4	73	101	72.28%
	Total		7	9	101	731	1,525	47.93%

 

Transformers T-2 comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.138x (4.72m)

 - F9 - .718x (5.1m)

 - Dune - .824x (4.2m)

 - Black Adam - .667x (5.07m)

 - Shang-Chi - .593x (5.22m)

 

Here are some T-1 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Creed III EA - 2.647x (2.55m)

 - Top Gun 2 EA - .425x (1.95)

 - Black Phone EA - 5.895x (2.36m)

 

Currently thinking around 4.8m true previews + 2m EA.  

 

Flash T-9 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.345x (11.84m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.82x (9.58m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - F9 - 1.52x (10.79m)

 - Matrix 4 (Wed) - .994x (6.33m)

 - Eternals - .734x (6.97m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-8	Jax	6	62	18	450	9,790	4.60%
		Phx	6	48	46	546	8,749	6.24%
		Ral	8	63	24	405	8,688	4.66%
	Total		20	173	88	1,401	27,227	5.15%
Transformers 6	T-1	Jax	5	74	127	563	10,116	5.57%
		Phx	7	71	115	554	11,257	4.92%
		Ral	8	65	106	473	7,732	6.12%
	Total		20	210	348	1,590	29,105	5.46%
Transformers EA	T-0	Jax	5	7	149	644	1,216	52.96%
		Phx	1	1	16	179	208	86.06%
		Ral	1	1	8	81	101	80.20%
	Total		7	9	173	904	1,525	59.28%

 

Transformers T-1 comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.135x (4.71m)

 - F9 - .729x (5.18m)

 - Dune - .902x (4.6m)

 - Black Adam - .696x (5.29m)

 - Shang-Chi - .649x (5.71m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .263x (4.66m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.136x (5.66m)*

 - Uncharted - 1.702x (6.3m)*

 

Here are some T-0 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Creed III EA - 2.33x (2.33m)

 - Top Gun 2 EA - .483x (2.22m)

 - Black Phone EA - 5.908x (2.36m)

 - Lost City EA - 3.518x (2.64m)

 - Boogeyman EA - 21.02x (2.1m)

 

Bumping my forecast up to 5.3m true previews + 2.2m EA.  

 

Flash T-8 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.289x (11.34m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.88x (9.78m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.56x (10.61m)

 - F9 - 1.56x (11.05m)

 - Matrix 4 (Wed) - .974x (6.21m)

 - Eternals - .728x (6.91m)

 - Black Adam - 1.42x (10.8m)

Edited June 8, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Fixed Sonic 2 and Uncharted comps

[AJG]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

 

Lousy numbers in the States but there are pathways to profitability, e.g. with BO of $500m WW where just $110m from DOM, $220m OS excl. China, and $170m from China. That and good home entertainment numbers can save it. All this IF the $200m production budget and marketing combined are around $325m.

 

My theory here is probably complete nonsense but lets have a look anyway:

 

If we assume the studio keeps all BO from OW (they don't - but lets assume) we see the studio getting:

• $50m OW + $30m for the remaining run of the film (after being split with cinemas if it does $110m DOM total) = $80m DOM
• 25% of $170m from China = $42.5M

So that gives the studio $122.5M DOM+China.

 

OS Without China would have to cover the remaining $77.5M (after split with cinemas) for the $200m production budget, and $202.5M (after split with cinemas) if including marketing costs. 

 

 

[M37]

51 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Big misread here is that Flash is going to much more walk-up heavy then people are expecting. MUCH more so than other recent comic book films. 

 

Since this is tracking thread, we focus mostly on data, with certainly some subjectivity in the analysis.

 

Growth from T-7 to T-F for Alpha sales

• JWD = +210%
• Black Adam = +218% (est)
• ATSV = +223%
• Fast X = +228%

Notice the comps are not typical MCU films, but 2 late breaking CBMs and 2 notoriously walk-up heavy franchises. So let's give Flash the benefit of the doubt, say review bump gets it to 68K by T-7, and then just because it beats all of trajectories from there and goes +240%. That would be a ~230K finish at Alpha, good for $11.5-$12M previews.

 

So what exactly is being "misread"? If you want argue the IM range should be a shifted little higher, I'll listen because I'm not entirely sold on what I put down there, though above 8x isn't likely IMO. But for Thursday, there isn't a good case to be made to go much higher (and in fact could argue the range on the chart is too graciously high or wide based on the data)

Edited June 7, 2023 by M37

[Legion Again]

Yeah I am at like 190k finish and 6x, take what you can get with M  

[ThomasNicole]

57 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Trend with non-Batman DC films, trend with popcorn crowd pleaser films, Fathers day weekend, etc. Multiplier is going to be on high-end no doubt.

 

Man of Steel, all of the Jurassic Worlds, Wonder Woman all did same with June releases. Wonder Woman was projected for like $65m shortly before release. 😂

You’re quoting movies from 6-10 years ago, they mean absolutely nothing for what the landscape looks like today. 
 

Movies was naturally way more walkup-heavy 6-10 years ago, you can’t expect a 2023 release to behave like JW 2015. Not even the last JW movie manage to do that.
 

And trades saying 65 for WW also didn’t matter for the tracking thread, not only because the marketplace changed too much since then but also because as we saw with every big release this year including SpiderVerse, this thread does a way better job than the industry when it comes to project an OW. There’s no reason to think everyone here is wrong about one specific movie.

Edited June 7, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[von Kenni]

12 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

My theory here is probably complete nonsense but lets have a look anyway:

 

If we assume the studio keeps all BO from OW (they don't - but lets assume) we see the studio getting:

• $50m OW + $30m for the remaining run of the film (after being split with cinemas if it does $110m DOM total) = $80m DOM
• 25% of $170m from China = $42.5M

So that gives the studio $122.5M DOM+China.

 

OS Without China would have to cover the remaining $77.5M (after split with cinemas) for the $200m production budget, and $202.5M (after split with cinemas) if including marketing costs. 

 

 

 

I counted all revenue for the breakeven point and the BO is just the baseline which correlates with the ancillary streams. Here's the detailed breakdown.

 

Revenue

 

BO $110m DOM *0.55 + $220m OS (excl. China) *0.40 + $170m China *0.25 = $191m

TV & streaming rights $130m

Home Entertainment $110m

Merch & misc $25m

 

Total $456m

 

Costs

 

Production budget $200m

Marketing $125m

Participation & Residues $35m

Manufacturing (DVD, BR, etc.) $25m

Home Entertainment marketing $20m

Studio overhead $20m

Prints $15m

Capital & finance costs $15m (partly accounting gimmick to get everything present-day value in addition to interest-related costs)

 

Total $455m

[excel1]

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

You’re quoting movies from 6-10 years ago, they mean absolutely nothing for what the landscape looks like today. 
 

 

Weird because the bolded time frame seems to be where the films being used as a performance basis for general expectations are coming from.

 

"Only $600m? FLOP"

 

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Movies was naturally way more walkup-heavy 6-10 years ago, you can’t expect a 2023 release to behave like JW 2015. Not even the last JW movie manage to do that.
 

 

Most non Marvel major films are walk up heavy. See Avatar, Black Adam, Jurassic World, Top Gun, etc from last year. Had multis well above Marvel.

 

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

And trades saying 65 for WW also didn’t matter for the tracking thread, not only because the marketplace changed too much since then but also because as we saw with every big release this year including SpiderVerse, this thread does a way better job than the industry when it comes to project an OW. There’s no reason to think everyone here is wrong about one specific movie.

 

Who said "everyone here is wrong"? I said I think walk ups will be above average. 

 

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Trades underestimating WW means nothing as far as tracking thread is concerned. The same trades were saying 80M OW for spiderverse just a week ago while this thread had correctly pinned it at 120+.

 

DC films are definitely more walkup heavy than MCU counterparts but that is already built in in everyone's projections.

 

need more

[ringedmortality]

So how's Oppenheimer doing?

[katnisscinnaplex]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 24474/35990 480055.82 179 shows +2379

Previews(T-2) - 52633/696654 972152.55 3992 shows +7280

Friday - 47688/1015411 851793.86 5859 shows +9945

 

comps with Fast X. Another good day Considering Fan shows + previews are selling more. Let us see how thursday walkups go. I am thinking 8m previews including fan shows. 

 

  

 

 

Transformers MTC3

Wednesday - 9,406/23,100  $192,123  112 shows

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Weird because the bolded time frame seems to be where the films being used as a performance basis for general expectations are coming from.

 

"Only $600m? FLOP"

 

 

Most non Marvel major films are walk up heavy. See Avatar, Black Adam, Jurassic World, Top Gun, etc from last year. Had multis well above Marvel.

 

 

Who said "everyone here is wrong"? I said I think walk ups will be above average. 

 

 

need more

Literally no one's basing their projections on their marvel comps, especially because those comps are pointing to like 6M previews rn, not 12 lol

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Weird because the bolded time frame seems to be where the films being used as a performance basis for general expectations are coming from.

 

"Only $600m? FLOP"

 

 

Most non Marvel major films are walk up heavy. See Avatar, Black Adam, Jurassic World, Top Gun, etc from last year. Had multis well above Marvel.

 

 

Who said "everyone here is wrong"? I said I think walk ups will be above average. 

 

 

need more

Yes, all of the examples you mentioned are more walkup heavy than MCU, but that’s really that hard? And they’re not close to the IM of the older movies you mentioned.

 

TGM was a 6.6x, Avatar was a 7.7x, JW was 8x … even BA was 9.1x and that’s kinda the best you can have these days, but also don’t forget, The Flash is a June release and there’s absolutely no reason to behave like a October release and an arguably way smaller CBM.
 

Let’s say 11M previews which is where it’s going being positive about the bumps … TGM IM would give it 72M, Avatar would give it 85M, JW would give it 88M. The only example you mentioned where a similar IM would give The Flash 100M OW would be Black Adam, and even then, just barely. 
 

See how even your examples of walkup movies would still means 75-85M for The Flash?

 

And friendly reminder, this tracking thread was pretty much on point about previews for all the movies you mentioned despite they’re being more walkup heavy. So again, no reason to expect a different outcome here. 
 

Of course, we’re a few days from the release which means the range is still subject to change, but the data just isn’t showing signs of a sudden blowup that would push Flash previews to 13M or more. No signs of a weirdly backloaded OW as well, despite Father’s Day (which is already being counted on projections).

[Menor the Destroyer]

Fairly limited review bump for Flash considering that this is the point in time where you'd expect to see bumps anyway. Will wait for tomorrow to see how it holds to take any hard conclusions from it, but it's not in a good spot considering it has no more catalysts until release.