The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[excel1]

4 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

Come on dude. I ain't happy either but they've been doing it for years and undersrand more than us.

 

I have been following the box office since the 1990s...😅

[LVB]

5 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

I have been following the box office since the 1990s...😅

 

I still remember when you claimed in this very thread that it wasn't possible for The Batman to open below BvS.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

"No more of that".

 

Excuse me? Reviewing assessments as they come in ? The transformers numbers are coming in literally as we post and are being used as there basis for agreeing or dissenting. That is the purpose of this thread and form. Are you telling the other predictors to stop repeating the same conclusion each time they have updated info, too? 

 

What a strange, absurd post of yours. 

 

 

 

If you want to "agree or dissent" against the numbers, go to the weekend thread. If you want to talk about the Flash, go to the Flash thread. This is the tracking thread. You're not tracking. You're not contributing to tracking. Typically I just move or hide comments that are unrelated to tracking so after this response I will be doing that with yours. 

 

[excel1]

30 minutes ago, LVB said:

 

I still remember when you claimed in this very thread that it wasn't possible for The Batman to open below BvS.

 

[Maggie]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

 

Is the Quorum legit? Anyway, waiting for Deadline projections

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

If your formula says that the Flash will open below Black Adam and on par with where Transformers is looking to open, your formula is...flawed.

I came up with the Thursday projection based on the current pace and how other recent films have finished. In fact, I've leaned toward the films that saw stronger pace bumps in the final week. For example, Transformers, which was selling similar daily numbers of raw tickets for combined previews+EA, added about 108k from this point (again combined), which would put Flash in the low 180k range and previews closer to 9m. So you can see that I've given Flash benefit of the doubt here in terms of having a solid final week trend.

 

The FSS is based on general Fri weakness in tracking samples and normal CBM weekend trends with a strong Father's Day/pre Juneteenth Sunday. If you have a disagreement then put out your own number based on the data instead of just sniping at predictions you don't like.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Shawn said:

Transformers coming in a little above expectations certainly underscores the caution of worrying too much about Flash, Indy, or anything else with walk-up potential too far out this summer. Not to say there aren't valid concerns on those (there are), but props to everyone keeping a level head on projecting some of these sales with a crowded market in mind. Summer is a different... beast.

 

I think this is an excellent post and point.

 

This thread is probably one of the most accurate on the (public) net when it comes to forecasting box office previews and even we can have a giant whiff now and again (this absolutely includes Yours Truly).  Just goes to show the inherent volatility baked into this little hobby.

 

To highlight what I mean, I was just going back to the first couple of days of pre-sales for Rise of the Beasts, and whoooo boy, we did not cover ourselves with glory.  At all. (starts around pg 894 but is scattered through a ton of other discussion and goes on for pages afterwards)

 

Now the reaction to the sales was warranted to a degree at the time because the ticket sales WERE bad.  It's the certainty though with that much time left for things to change which should be the reminder to all of us to maybe be either a little bit more humble or a bit more open to the possibility that things might change.

 

(and, yes, I should have tracked this all along as I've said more than once - but there was just too damn much else going on and those initial sales convinced me that the odds weren't in favor of a breakout [which just reinforces my prior point])

 

Mind, as it gets closer and closer to release, the variance lessens.  But even then things like Minions 2 and Let There be Carnage can surprise at the very last moment.

 

NB:  (VERY IMPORTANT NB for that matter)  Not saying anything in particular in regards to The Flash or Indy 5.  If I were a betting man, I def wouldn't bet on either of those exploding at the end of their runs.  Just noting that every once in a while surprises like Rise of the Beasts happen.

 

(also should be noted that @TheFlatLannister had this pegged for Not Doing Terribly for quite a while, but even their comps as late as T-6 didn't see near 9m coming)

Edited June 9, 2023 by Porthos

[Shawn Robbins]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think this is an excellent post and point.

 

This thread is probably one of the more accurate on the (public) net when it comes to forecasting box office previews and even we can have a giant whiff now and again (this absolutely includes Yours Truly).  Just goes to show the inherent volatility baked into this little hobby.

 

To highlight what I mean, I was just going back to the first couple of days of pre-sales for Rise of the Beasts, and whoooo boy, we did not cover ourselves with glory.  At all. (starts around pg 894 but is scattered through a ton of other discussion and goes on for pages afterwards)

 

Now the reaction to the sales was warranted to a degree at the time because the ticket sales WERE bad.  It's the certainty though with that much time left for things to change which should be the reminder to all of us to maybe be either a little bit more humble in our own certainty or more open to the possibility that things might change.

 

(and, yes, I should have tracked this all along as I've said more than once - but there was just too damn much else going on and those initial sales convinced me that the odds weren't in favor of a breakout [which just reinforces my prior point])

 

Mind, as it gets closer and closer to release, the variance lessens.  But even then things like Minions 2 and Let There be Carnage can surprise at the last moment.

 

NB:  (VERY IMPORTANT NB for that matter)  Not saying anything in particular in regards to The Flash or Indy 5.  If I were a betting man, I def wouldn't bet on either of those exploding at the end of their runs.  Just noting that every once in a while surprises like Rise of the Beasts happen.

 

(also should be noted that @TheFlatLannister had this pegged for Not Doing Terribly for quite a while, but even their comps as late as T-6 didn't see near 9m coming)

Credit to you as well, @Porthos, as I recall you also pointing out a couple of weeks ago there were signs of 40-50 looking like it would be possible.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30019-the-box-office-buzz-and-tracking-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4506015

[Menor the Destroyer]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think this is an excellent post and point.

 

This thread is probably one of the most accurate on the (public) net when it comes to forecasting box office previews and even we can have a giant whiff now and again (this absolutely includes Yours Truly).  Just goes to show the inherent volatility baked into this little hobby.

 

To highlight what I mean, I was just going back to the first couple of days of pre-sales for Rise of the Beasts, and whoooo boy, we did not cover ourselves with glory.  At all. (starts around pg 894 but is scattered through a ton of other discussion and goes on for pages afterwards)

 

Now the reaction to the sales was warranted to a degree at the time because the ticket sales WERE bad.  It's the certainty though with that much time left for things to change which should be the reminder to all of us to maybe be either a little bit more humble or a bit more open to the possibility that things might change.

 

(and, yes, I should have tracked this all along as I've said more than once - but there was just too damn much else going on and those initial sales convinced me that the odds weren't in favor of a breakout [which just reinforces my prior point])

 

Mind, as it gets closer and closer to release, the variance lessens.  But even then things like Minions 2 and Let There be Carnage can surprise at the very last moment.

 

NB:  (VERY IMPORTANT NB for that matter)  Not saying anything in particular in regards to The Flash or Indy 5.  If I were a betting man, I def wouldn't bet on either of those exploding at the end of their runs.  Just noting that every once in a while surprises like Rise of the Beasts happen.

 

(also should be noted that @TheFlatLannister had this pegged for Not Doing Terribly for quite a while, but even their comps as late as T-6 didn't see near 9m coming)

The thread can also be too high, though. So while it's important to consider all possibilities, that doesn't mean we should only consider variation in one direction. Just at the beginning of the year we had Avatar 2 and Quantumania which both finished poorly back to back (for different reasons). And in almost all of these cases the trendline usually has become fairly clear by now, it's just the extent of the rise/fall in expected value that is unclear. It's very rare (though not impossible) for something to truly change its trendline in the final week without some external factor like reviews or calendar.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Oppenheimer MTC1 

Previews - 21813/256594 443915.07 1244 shows

Friday - 17547/467112 347246.77 2210 shows

 

I think its solid though show count is still quite low. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer MTC1 

Previews - 21813/256594 443915.07 1244 shows

Friday - 17547/467112 347246.77 2210 shows

 

I think its solid though show count is still quite low. 

Really solid sales especially for Fri with still 40+ days to go. It's hard to comp this one but I definitely think 50m OW is in range even with Nolan's fanbase skewing things. Friday is not far behind where Dune was T-14 (a fanbase, PLF heavy film that also had the HBO Max release as a disadvantage). Though this staggered release is hard to read. Could you do one update tomorrow just to see the pace?

Edited June 9, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The thread can also be too high, though. So while it's important to consider all possibilities, that doesn't mean we should only consider variation in one direction. Just at the beginning of the year we had Avatar 2 and Quantumania which both finished poorly back to back (for different reasons). And in almost all of these cases the trendline usually has become fairly clear by now, it's just the extent of the rise/fall in expected value that is unclear. It's very rare (though not impossible) for something to truly change its trendline in the final week without some external factor like reviews or calendar.

 

 

 

Absolutely 100 percent true, and I suppose I should have mentioned that as well. 

 

When it comes right down to it, my post was more of a memento mori /"Remember, thou art mortal" type post than anything else.

 

(To forestall the commentary, I also 100 percent agree that the collective members of this community should feel justifiably proud of our collective ability to forecast things and better than the public reports from much of the Trades [non-BOP edition, of course ].... Just.. something I've been meaning to get off my chest and RotB's performance was a perfect oppo to do it)

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Really solid sales especially for Fri with still 40+ days to go. It's hard to comp this one but I definitely think 50m OW is in range even with Nolan's fanbase skewing things. Friday is not far behind where Dune was T-14 (a fanbase, PLF heavy film that also had the HBO Max release as a disadvantage). Though this staggered release is hard to read. Could you do one update tomorrow just to see the pace?

I will do that. Big reason why friday sales are robust is lack of thursday shows in big markets. Lincoln Sq imax has sold close to 1600 tickets across 4 shows for friday. Not just the weekend, Lincoln square imax shows are filling out quickly even into the weekdays. It will have a strong run during the 3 weeks when it has the Imax. I expect it to keep few shows even post that as I am not seeing a big movie in August. 

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Blackening 

 

Wednesday

T-5

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	229	1603	14.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Thursday

T-6

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
30	134	5276	2.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS (THUR ONLY)

T-6

 

(0.870x) of The Boogeyman

~$950K THUR

Edited June 9, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
104	629	14573	4.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

FWIW, very unofficial comp is pointing to ~$2.5Mish previews, but I would look to other trackers who have better comps 

 

Anyways a very solid day. Best day since I started tracking it

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	685	21579	3.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

This is doing pretty well all things considering. Hard to tell if Orlando MTCs are just overindexing because of Disney (Especially MTC1)

 

unofficial comp still pointing to ~$2.5M+

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
189	2943	38172	7.7%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

128

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.448x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.8M THUR Previews

 

(0.688x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$11.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.657x) of FAST X

~$12.4M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-7

 

(0.410x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.2M THUR Previews

 

(0.630x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.516x) of FAST X

~$11.4M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

 

 

Good news pace picked up again, but a little too late? I feel like I should remove the Guardians comp (it's so far from the other comps) let me know what y'all think about it

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
189	3122	38172	8.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

179

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.448x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.8M THUR Previews

 

(0.675x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$11.7M THUR Previews 

 

(1.709x) of FAST X

~$12.8M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-6

 

(0.410x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.2M THUR Previews

 

(0.617x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.7M THUR Previews 

 

(1.565x) of FAST X

~$11.7M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

 

 

This is pretty good actually. It's still falling behind ATSV comp, but holding vs GOTG comp and even gaining on the Fast X comp

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
130	1732	28584	6.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-21

 

 

(0.369x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.328x) of FAST X

~$9.9M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
163	1768	34028	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.370x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.338x) of FAST X

~$10M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $8.3M

[keysersoze123]

Indiana Jones MTC1

Previews - 28116/518634 531537.72 2532 shows

Friday - 16580/765291 303953.00 3679 shows

 

Friday sales are now below Oppenheimer :-)

[Cooper Legion]

On 5/11/2023 at 1:09 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

The Transformers comps seem reasonable enough and the start indeed seems pretty fine. I think this will be another movie where reviews are pretty important but not hard to see 50+. 
 

Guess like 40-55 without looking too hard yet or having much in the way of other regionals 😛 

Still got it ~55, fwiw  

[Mulder]

Just now, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Still got it ~55, fwiw  

Yeah especially if that 58 number sticks or it goes slightly lower to 56/57.