The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Johnny Tran]

13 hours ago, John Marston said:

Dial of Destiny I think can go up to 80m thanks to walk ups from an older crowd but that still wouldn’t be good 

 

How wouldn't $80M be good for either that or The Flash?  It's not 2019 anymore.   I don't think people have come to terms with that yet.  Subtract 20-30% off the top for most movies.  There will be outliers here and there but this is the new reality. 

[MightyDargon]

When will we know if Flash turns on the gas and starts to kick ass?

[RamblinRed]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	193	23824	26237	2413	9.20%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	15
Total Net Seats Added Today	1095
Total Seats Sold Today	217

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.65		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	20.52%		7.70m
BA	111.10		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	53.69%		8.44m
Shazam 2	345.70		80	698		0/139	19789/20487	3.41%		1663	145.10%		11.75m
Wick 4	91.16		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	44.29%		8.11m
AtSV	54.12		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	24.76%		9.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     417/6041  [6.90% sold]
Matinee:    77/2494  [3.09% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not exactly a great day of sales locally. To say the least.

Ouch. Falling against every comp. Not what we need to see.

so I guess unless it is just super walk-up heavy it really is not looking positive for this weekend.

 

 

[Claudio]

4 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

When will we know if Flash turns on the gas and starts to kick ass?

We might never know cause it never will... 

 

3 days left and it needs to take off asap. It should be doing that when the reviews dropped but never did until now. Slim chance it would accelerate drastically against other comps in these last days. Maybe today is the day cause the premiere bump. But who knows...

[TwoMisfits]

In the "presales do matter" category...

 

VERY LITTLE TO NO expansion for any of the 3 Hollywood openers this weekend at my 1st local.

 

First set with Flash on 3+ screens with 1 as PLF (16 showings - almost no expansion)

Elemental on 2.5+ screens with 1/2 as PLF for morning/afternoon (13 showings - almost no expansion)

Blackening on 1 screen - no expansion

Adipurush on 1.5 screens - that's actually a 1/2 screen expansion (I mention b/c to do this with all the competition meant this movie may be above its normal genre open)

 

Spidey keeps the other 1/2 PLF for evening (guess the theater is seeing the Father's Day and Juneteenth possibilities) and keeps 2 screens.  Transformers keeps 1.5 screens (a big drop).  Disney sacrificed Boogeyman over Mermaid and GOTG 3, so the former gets 1 showing at 11pm at night and the other 2 keep a full screen.  Fast X is the big loser and is dropped.  As is anything else that was there.

Edited June 13, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[TheFlatLannister]

34 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

When will we know if Flash turns on the gas and starts to kick ass?

It’s honestly too late for that. We would have noticed some growth during Sunday reports. OW seems lost, probably best to focus on legs 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-3	Jax	5	12	-2	8	966	0.83%
		Phx	6	16	1	22	1,707	1.29%
		Ral	6	14	0	11	802	1.37%
	Total		17	42	-1	41	3,475	1.18%
Blackening (EA)	T-2	Jax	4	4	1	73	357	20.45%
		Phx	3	3	3	72	210	34.29%
		Ral	6	6	5	36	655	5.50%
	Total		13	13	9	181	1,222	14.81%
Elemental	T-3	Jax	5	40	16	84	5,234	1.60%
		Phx	6	42	4	109	5,156	2.11%
		Ral	8	39	14	98	4,743	2.07%
	Total		19	121	34	291	15,133	1.92%
Flash	T-3	Jax	6	64	59	645	10,050	6.42%
		Phx	6	48	67	763	8,749	8.72%
		Ral	8	63	65	601	8,688	6.92%
	Total		20	175	191	2,009	27,487	7.31%
Indiana Jones	T-17	Jax	6	64	228	228	10,205	2.23%
		Phx	6	43	136	136	8,309	1.64%
		Ral	8	53	253	253	7,972	3.17%
	Total		20	160	617	617	26,486	2.33%
Oppenheimer	T-38	Jax	6	23	119	119	4,698	2.53%
		Phx	6	26	110	110	4,969	2.21%
		Ral	8	22	107	107	2,837	3.77%
	Total		20	71	336	336	12,504	2.69%

 

Flash T-3 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.106x (9.73m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.13x (10.64m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.2x (9.11m)

 - F9 - 1.387x (9.85m)

 - Eternals - .756x (7.18m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Morbius - 1.792x (10.22m)

 

Fell against most of the comps again.  Hanging on to 10m but needs to bounce back.

 

Blackening T-3 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .554x (665m)

 - Men - 621x (263k)

 - Firestarter - .554x (208k)

 - Night House - 2.28x (592k)

 

Blackening + EA T-3 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - missed

 - Smile + EA - missed

 - The Menu + EA - .961x (961k)

 

Elemental T-3 comps

 - Lightyear - .401x (1.96m)

 - Strange World - 5.11x (4.08m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.52x (2.29m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.39x (2.72m)

 

Indiana Jones T-17 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .337x (5.73m)

 - F9 - 1.399x (9.93m)

 - JW3 - .334x (5.91m)

 - NTTD - 2.18x (11.34m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .427x (6.27m)

 

Oppenheimer T-38 comps

 - JW3 - .385x (6.74m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-9	Jax	6	9	63	63	875	7.20%
		Phx	4	8	26	26	564	4.61%
		Ral	5	10	20	20	848	2.36%
	Total		15	27	109	109	2,287	4.77%
Blackening	T-2	Jax	5	13	0	8	1,060	0.75%
		Phx	6	14	7	29	1,584	1.83%
		Ral	6	14	0	11	802	1.37%
	Total		17	41	7	48	3,446	1.39%
Blackening (EA)	T-1	Jax	4	4	0	73	357	20.45%
		Phx	3	3	3	75	210	35.71%
		Ral	6	6	7	43	655	6.56%
	Total		13	13	10	191	1,222	15.63%
Elemental	T-2	Jax	5	39	25	109	4,734	2.30%
		Phx	6	44	35	144	5,325	2.70%
		Ral	8	39	15	113	4,743	2.38%
	Total		19	122	75	366	14,802	2.47%
Flash	T-2	Jax	6	65	97	742	10,144	7.31%
		Phx	6	54	91	854	9,273	9.21%
		Ral	8	63	102	703	8,688	8.09%
	Total		20	182	290	2,299	28,105	8.18%
Indiana Jones	T-16	Jax	6	64	11	239	10,205	2.34%
		Phx	6	43	6	142	8,309	1.71%
		Ral	8	53	-2	251	7,972	3.15%
	Total		20	160	15	632	26,486	2.39%
No Feelings	T-9	Jax	5	15	1	1	1,284	0.08%
		Phx	6	18	7	7	1,722	0.41%
		Ral	6	17	6	6	1,568	0.38%
	Total		17	50	14	14	4,574	0.31%
No Feelings (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	2	4	4	134	2.99%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	71	0.00%
	Total		3	3	4	4	205	1.95%
Oppenheimer	T-37	Jax	6	23	3	122	4,698	2.60%
		Phx	6	26	2	112	4,969	2.25%
		Ral	8	22	2	109	2,837	3.84%
	Total		20	71	7	343	12,504	2.74%

 

Flash T-2 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.097x (9.66m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.22x (10.93m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.107x (8.75m)

 - F9 - 1.329x (9.44m)

 - Eternals - .762x (7.24m)

 - Black Adam - 1.235x (9.39m)

 - Morbius - 1.62x (9.24m)

 

I'm getting a bad feeling about this... charts to come.

 

Blackening T-2 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .471x (565m)

 - Men - .511x (216k)

 - Firestarter - .539x (202k)

 - Night House - 2x (520k)

 - Smile - missed

 - Boogeyman - .432x (432k)

 - Forever Purge - .471x (626k)

 - Popes Exorcist - .522x (443k)

 - X - .539x (237k)

 

Blackening + EA T-2 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .533x (1.6m)

 - Smile + EA - missed

 - The Menu + EA - .754x (754k)

 - Boogeyman + EA - 1.671x (1.84m)

 

Elemental T-2 comps

 - Lightyear - .401x (1.96m)

 - Strange World - 6.1x (4.88m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.51x (2.27m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.38x (2.72m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.524x (3.307m)

 - Super Pets - 1.726x (3.8m)

 

The new model is pointing to ~2.3m for this one.

 

Asteroid City T-9 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .741x (1.48m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.633x (1.82m)

 - The Menu - 1.313x (1.31m)

 - Violent Night - 1.514x (1.67m)

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-9 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .6x (300k)

 - Violent Night - .25x (275k)

 - 80 for Brady Total - .097x (124k)

 - Lost City Total - .089x (288k)

 

Indiana Jones T-16 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .329x (5.59m)

 - F9 - 1.254x (8.9m)

 - JW3 - .333x (5.9m)

 - NTTD - 1.94x (10.08m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .405x (5.95m)

 

Oppenheimer T-37 comps

 - JW3 - .355x (6.29m)

[Eric Prime]

Elemental Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	284	9317	3.05%

 

Comp - T-3

4.057x of The Bad Guys (4.66M)

0.437x of Lightyear (2.27M)

0.427x of Minions 2 (4.59M)

9.467x of Paws of Fury (4.78M)

2.151x of DC Super Pets (4.73M)

8.875x of Lyle Lyle Crocodile (5.1M)

 

Don't expect it to stay this high.

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Flash T-2 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.097x (9.66m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.22x (10.93m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.107x (8.75m)

 - F9 - 1.329x (9.44m)

 - Eternals - .762x (7.24m)

 - Black Adam - 1.235x (9.39m)

 - Morbius - 1.62x (9.24m)

 

I'm getting a bad feeling about this... charts to come.

Thought it was interesting that @M37 was talking about PSM since that's partially what my new model is looking at.  I threw a few charts together for the Flash & comps to compare PSM at different preview numbers.  Projected is based on growth rate.

 

  

 

 

Based on the shape so far, I could see this playing out like the lower comps (Avatar 2, Eternals, Batman) and coming in between 7.5 and 8m.  I'm not saying this will happen, but that the trends in my regions are pointing in that direction.

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	2337	18907	12.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 182

 

Comp - T-4

0.337x of The Batman (7.28M)

0.860x of Jurassic World 3 (15.48M)

0.302x of Thor 4 (8.77M)

1.679x of Black Adam (12.76M)

0.706x of Avatar 2 (12M)

0.420x of Ant-Man 3 (7.34M)

0.498x of Guardians 3 (8.72M)

0.778x of Spider-Verse (13.49M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	2618	18907	13.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 281

 

Comp - T-3

0.336x of The Batman (7.25M)

0.842x of Jurassic World 3 (15.15M)

0.317x of Thor 4 (9.18M)

1.635x of Black Adam (12.43M)

0.710x of Avatar 2 (12.07M)

0.440x of Ant-Man 3 (7.7M)

0.495x of Guardians 3 (8.66M)

0.771x of Spider-Verse (13.37M)

[vafrow]

Lots of implications with those moves, but not really a topic for this thread.

 

Although, I'm hoping Beyond the Spiderverse is on pace to be ready, and can claim that May 2024 slot.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Lots of implications with those moves, but not really a topic for this thread.

 

Although, I'm hoping Beyond the Spiderverse is on pace to be ready, and can claim that May 2024 slot.

Yeah I think this deserves its own thread tbh @XXRkham Asylumcould we get these posts moved into a new thread?

[reddevil19]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Lots of implications with those moves, but not really a topic for this thread.

 

Although, I'm hoping Beyond the Spiderverse is on pace to be ready, and can claim that May 2024 slot.

The current date for it is better. Easter would be killer for it.

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

Not the Disney thread. You guys know this release date specualtion stuff is inappropriate for this thread. I don't know why we have to keep telling you lot this, but anybody who continues this further gets a threadban.

 

I will move the inappropriate posts into the Disney thread.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Yeah I think this deserves its own thread tbh @XXRkham Asylumcould we get these posts moved into a new thread?

Its own thread isn’t necessary. This can be discussed in the Disney Thread since it encapsulates several of their franchises…

 

 

[M37]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

That's helpful.

 

For my further context, what is the sales figure you're using. Is it the final Thursday preview presale volume? And is the multiplier to get to your predicted Thursday preview total domestic ticket revenue?

 

Regarding Shazam, I do agree that the figures on this are wonky. It's the first film I tracked, but just did T-1 and T-0. But, because my region was on spring break, ticket sales were absolutely crazy and very off trend from everywhere else. The PSM for that was $16.6K (if I understand the calculations right). For ATSV for example, mine is $51.1K which over indexed here.l, but still nowhere near that Shazam number.

 

If other areas on spring break were seeing that type of distortion, it makes any comparison against that Shazam figure very difficult.

So I’m basically using growth rate patterns to predict final sales totals and then estimate PSM for an actual value. Again, the right comp(s) does all of this math on its own, but my method is a little less reliant on direct comps 

 

On a hyper local level, there can be huge variance in PSM across titles, especially with added factors like Spring Break. But the larger the sample, the more those balance out.  Don’t think Sacto will hit the $2044 or Shazam, but something closer to Batman’s $1900 is where I’m starting 

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

So I’m basically using growth rate patterns to predict final sales totals and then estimate PSM for an actual value. Again, the right comp(s) does all of this math on its own, but my method is a little less reliant on direct comps 

 

On a hyper local level, there can be huge variance in PSM across titles, especially with added factors like Spring Break. But the larger the sample, the more those balance out.  Don’t think Sacto will hit the $2044 or Shazam, but something closer to Batman’s $1900 is where I’m starting 

 

On the hyper local level, fully agreed. It's obviously the risk from drawing any major conclusions from my data, which is a single theatre.

 

But, I find a lot of interest in understanding the deviations. When my data isn't aligned to others, i try to think through the reasons and see if it makes sense.

 

Plus, sometimes when my data is off, it speaks to a potential sign of something bigger. TLM severely under indexed. Then it came out after that all of Canada under indexed on that one, in line with broader international trends. Plus, even with small data sets, you can often see trends emerge.

[GOGODanca]

Elemental (D-2):                         313 tickets sold at 10 AMC's (+69), 110% growth over past 3 days

 

Indiana Jones 5 (D-16):             348 tickets sold at 10 AMC's (+7)

 

Oppenheimer (D-37):                463 tickets sold at 10 AMC's (+18)

 

 

[Porthos]

Contrary to early reports (at least from what I recall), looks like the Walmart+ "See it first" showings for MI7 are exclusive to Walmart+ members.

 

 

I say "looks like" because not only is Atom the only place showing these tickets being available locally, if I go to the various corp sites, they don't have their showtimes listed on their dates (even though Cinemark at least does indeed have it as a coming attraction).

 

Also not entirely sure tickets are even live at the moment (not having a Walmart+ account I can't check) as I check a few places locally there isn't a single ticket sold.  Makes me think that it's possible that the sale won't go through even with a Walmart+ account.  Either that or folks locally have no idea whatsoever that this is a thing at the moment.

 

(more I think about it, the more I think Atom just accidentally left a partial switch on and the sale would be rejected eventually)

[ringedmortality]

Is this the first time Walmart+ has done something like this, seems odd