The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/18/2023 at 9:49 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-4	Jax	6	9	22	127	875	14.51%
		Phx	4	8	9	66	564	11.70%
		Ral	5	10	8	49	848	5.78%
	Total		15	27	39	242	2,287	10.58%
No Feelings	T-4	Jax	5	15	7	17	1,284	1.32%
		Phx	6	18	1	25	1,722	1.45%
		Ral	6	17	3	24	1,568	1.53%
	Total		17	50	11	66	4,574	1.44%

 

Asteroid City T-4 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Easter Sunday - 4.246x (2.12m)

 - The Menu - missed

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.574x (1.93m)

 

No Hard Feelings T-4 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.158x (579k)

 - Violent Night - missed

 - 80 for Brady - .468x (351k)

 - Lost City - .275x (688k)

 

Size adjusted average - 503k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-3	Jax	6	9	28	155	875	17.71%
		Phx	4	8	13	79	564	14.01%
		Ral	5	10	13	62	848	7.31%
	Total		15	27	54	296	2,287	12.94%
No Feelings	T-3	Jax	5	15	10	27	1,284	2.10%
		Phx	6	18	7	32	1,722	1.86%
		Ral	6	17	8	32	1,568	2.04%
	Total		17	50	25	91	4,574	1.99%

 

Asteroid City T-3 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.218x (2.44m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.625x (2.31m)

 - The Menu - 1.96x (1.76m)

 - Violent Night - 2.596x (2.86m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.643x (1.98m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 4.169x (2.65m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.13m.  Continues to have solid growth each day.  Still have no idea what this movie is about.

 

No Hard Feelings T-3 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.422x (711k)

 - Violent Night - .798x (878k)

 - 80 for Brady - .58x (435k)

 - Lost City - .333x (833k)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.282x (814k)

 

Size adjusted average - 724k

[ZackM]

22 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	1	0
Seats Added	0	0	0	141	0
Seats Sold	934	1,189	968	864	655
6/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	421	2,474	35,488	504,635	7.03%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	5	11	26
ATP	Gross
$18.64	$661,496

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	1
Seats Added	0	0	0	0	141
Seats Sold	1,247	934	1,189	968	864
6/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	421	2,474	36,735	504,635	7.28%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	3	4	12	30
ATP	Gross
$18.61	$683,638

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/18/2023 at 9:51 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-11	Jax	6	64	16	292	10,205	2.86%
		Phx	6	43	2	177	8,309	2.13%
		Ral	8	53	25	319	7,972	4.00%
	Total		20	160	43	788	26,486	2.98%
Ruby Gillman	T-11	Jax	5	19	1	2	2,145	0.09%
		Phx	6	24	0	4	2,236	0.18%
		Ral	7	27	2	12	2,563	0.47%
	Total		18	70	3	18	6,944	0.26%

 

Ruby Gillman T-12 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Super Pets - .45x (990k)

 

Indiana Jones T-12 comps

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 - F9 - 1.058x (7.51m)

 - JW3 - missed

 - NTTD - 1.732x (9.01m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .38x (5.57m)

 - John Wick 4 - .855x (7.61m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.81x (7.5m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.33m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-10	Jax	6	64	12	304	10,205	2.98%
		Phx	6	43	3	180	8,309	2.17%
		Ral	8	53	17	336	7,972	4.21%
	Total		20	160	32	820	26,486	3.10%
Ruby Gillman	T-10	Jax	5	19	0	2	2,145	0.09%
		Phx	6	24	0	4	2,236	0.18%
		Ral	7	27	1	13	2,563	0.51%
	Total		18	70	1	19	6,944	0.27%

 

Ruby Gillman T-10 comps

 - Bad Guys - .514x (591k)

 - Super Pets - .44x (972k)

 - Lyle Lyle - 1.357x (780k)

 - Paws of Fury - .679x (343k)

 

Size adjusted average - 619k

 

Indiana Jones T-10 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .302x (5.14m)

 - F9 - 1.015x (7.21m)

 - JW3 - .337x (5.96m)

 - NTTD - 1.737x (9.03m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .37x (5.46m)

 - John Wick 4 - .835x (7.43m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.73x (7.19m)

 - Uncharted - 2.124x (7.86m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.1m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/18/2023 at 9:53 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sound of Freedom	T-15	Jax	5	21	11	207	1,622	12.76%
		Phx	6	35	22	346	2,511	13.78%
		Ral	6	19	16	213	2,039	10.45%
	Total		17	75	49	766	6,172	12.41%

 

Sound of Freedom T-15 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .677x (2.23m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 2.343x (1.81m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Joy Ride	T-17	Jax	5	17	0	0	1,591	0.00%
		Phx	5	17	13	13	1,484	0.88%
		Ral	7	24	5	5	2,099	0.24%
	Total		17	58	18	18	5,174	0.35%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-16	Jax	5	6	4	4	562	0.71%
		Phx	6	6	4	4	747	0.54%
		Ral	6	6	4	4	506	0.79%
	Total		17	18	12	12	1,815	0.66%
Sound of Freedom	T-14	Jax	5	21	28	235	1,622	14.49%
		Phx	6	35	15	361	2,511	14.38%
		Ral	6	19	3	216	2,039	10.59%
	Total		17	75	46	812	6,172	13.16%

 

Sound of Freedom T-14 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .709x (2.34m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 2.381x (1.84m)

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-17 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .291x (583k)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.765x (1.32m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.5x (1.25m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/18/2023 at 9:55 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-23	Jax	5	67	4	96	10,608	0.90%
		Phx	6	58	6	64	11,155	0.57%
		Ral	8	54	14	102	8,344	1.22%
	Total		19	179	24	262	30,107	0.87%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-21	Jax	3	3	0	32	418	7.66%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	363	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	2	12	111	10.81%
	Total		6	6	2	44	892	4.93%
	T-22	Jax	5	7	7	67	1,407	4.76%
		Phx	1	1	1	32	410	7.80%
		Ral	1	1	0	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	8	130	2,078	6.26%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-23 comps

 - JW3 Total - .217x (3.91m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.84x (6.25m)

 - Black Widow - .401x (5.3m)

 - Avatar 2 - .446x (7.58m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.27m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-22	Jax	6	69	11	107	10,964	0.98%
		Phx	6	58	6	70	11,155	0.63%
		Ral	8	54	9	111	8,344	1.33%
	Total		20	181	26	288	30,463	0.95%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-20	Jax	3	3	0	32	418	7.66%
		Phx	2	2	2	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	12	111	10.81%
	Total		6	6	2	46	892	5.16%
	T-21	Jax	5	7	9	76	1,407	5.40%
		Phx	1	1	0	32	410	7.80%
		Ral	1	1	0	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	9	139	2,078	6.69%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-22 comps

 - JW3 Total - .232x (4.18m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.82x (6.19m)

 - Black Widow - .366x (4.83m)

 - Avatar 2 - .397x (6.75m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.97m

Edited June 20, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex

[PlatnumRoyce]

 

 

Anything to this? 

[GOGODanca]

12 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

 

Anything to this? 

it means the only tracking people should follow is this forum

[Krissykins]

30 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

 

Anything to this? 

Think they’re using the long range forecasts rather than the trade/industry tracking (Flash $70m, Transformers $68m etc) 

 

Still interesting though. 

[Flopped]

Is No Hard Feelings really the only major release this weekend? Why? 

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/16/2023 at 9:57 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Previews:

 

All of these are counted as of last night. Don't have many comps at the moment since I've been in a hiatus so I'm just saving these numbers for future reference, and maybe they can still be helpful in terms of # of shows and % sold

 

No Hard Feelings (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	26	17	17	2131	0.8

 

Horrible

 

Asteroid City (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 8 theaters	9	122	122	722	16.9

 

Like katniss said, also looking really strong. Only knock against it is the super limited # of shows.

 

Indiana Jones (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	75	572	572	12756	4.48

 

We'll see how this keeps growing.

 

Ruby Gillman (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	30	3	3	2915	0.1

 

This will save cinema.

 

Joy Ride (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	42	9	9	3622	0.25

 

Why this has so many shows, I'm not sure.

 

Oppenheimer (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	new seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	35	555	555	6250	8.88

 

Almost as much as Indy... with two weeks ahead of it. Over 80% is PLFs, including a couple of near-sold out 70 MM shows

 

Let me know if you have feedback regarding formatting or the way I make these posts. I'm not going to do these daily to avoid burning out, except for during release weeks.

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

These are from last night. All numbers counted are sales from a three day range: Friday-Sunday.

 

Asteroid City (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 8 theaters	9	43	165	722	22.85

 

No Hard Feelings (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	23	38	55	2011	2.73

 

Asteroid City continues its nice pace, No Hard Feelings finally gets going a bit.

 

Indiana Jones (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	75	41	613	12756	4.81

 

Ruby Gillman (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	30	3	6	2915	0.21

 

Joy Ride (Includes EA, T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	47	12	21	4092	0.51

 

Oppenheimer (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	35	37	592	6250	9.47

 

I'll separate these into PLF and non-PLF in the future, that's a good idea.

 

This week, I'll update Asteroid City and No Hard Feelings daily, next update tonight. For the others, next update is Thursday. I will also have Mission Impossible numbers tomorrow, though that is giving me a headache too on how to best do that.

 

[vafrow]

36 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

 

Anything to this? 

 

Not really. Films received poorly did poorly. Films received well did well.

 

Guardians is one of the tougher ones to pin down, as there was a lot of different opinions on that in advance. The tracking in this thread was very low on it until things turned drastically around T-10, where it improved with good reviews and word of mouth.

 

For the CMB films that were bad, tracking was capturing the slowdown on sales.

 

Tracking can't predict if a movie will be well received. Just what it's on pace to make based on available data.

[M37]

1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

 

Anything to this? 

Yes, but first it’s important to distinguish between what I call “soft tracking” - Quorum and other survey metrics that ProBO and trades use - and the hard data pre-sale tracking in this thread 

 

From that perspective, it can be argued that CBMs have generally been over-projected based on soft tracking, while some other releases have been under-projected. In general, I do feel as though there is some level of GA “superhero fatigue”where absent outstanding quality - aka “it factor” - audiences have become more inclined to pass on supers, while other GA appealing features are picking up a greater share of casual audiences.

 

Im sure these survey based forecasts already differentiate between CBMs and other features, but it may be time to adjust the methodology a bit, dial down the CBMs (& other major franchises probably) and dial up the others, but I wouldn’t go so far as saying anything is “broken”.  We’re still not even 2 years into a full post-pandemic market, where audience behaviors have been constantly shifting.
Could certainly argue that in 2021/22, the big brands were the only thing that put butts in seats, but a combination of “disappointing” quality & lack of broad story direction, coupled with the return of more casual moviegoers has more people opting for something new & different instead of defaulting to CBM comfort food 

Edited June 19, 2023 by M37

[upriser7]

do we know Barbie's tickets are gonna go on sale ?

[toutvabien]

1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

 

Anything to this? 

The Flash is actually the only one that completely missed its tracking. We went from most of the industry expecting it to clear $70M easily and go even higher ($85M+) to Deadline spinning that this was their tracking for the 4-day weekend all along to the film failing to make $70M even on the four-day.

 

Quantumania's tracking always had it at $100-105M 3-day and $120M 4-day until it dropped right before it opened and then the film opened in line with early industry tracking. Most people on BOT thought GotG was not selling well enough for $130M opening and even the trades had it dropped to $110M closer to release, to the point were $118M was seen as better than expected.

[Grebacio]

9 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

do we know Barbie's tickets are gonna go on sale ?

Wednesday 

[M37]

16 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Not really. Films received poorly did poorly. Films received well did well.

This part is also key: most of the “beat tracking” movies had good to very good reviews/WOM

 

But I also think it’s fair to say the expectations bar has been raised for CBMs, given where GOTG3 and ATSV landed despite +90% RT scores 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

 

Anything to this? 

I'm not even sure where the Ant-Man numbers are from, I don't think traditional tracking had that at 120 ever (maybe for 4-day, which it ended up hitting despite being awful). If anything Ant-Man was a case where interest in the movie was underestimated by traditional tracking, but then the very low quality led to it hitting that.

 

Guardians and the two DC films were legit underperformances, yes. I would note that with Guardians it did leg very well, so it's possible tracking just didn't adjust to an MCU fanbase that was jaded from low quality releases and waiting for proof of it being good. Similarly the DC fanbase is in a weird place with the upcoming reboot.

 

I would note though that Transformers underperformed traditional tracking which I believe was 68-70 million, so this list is selective. I also don't agree with excluding Across from the CBM list. It's also mixing and matching BO Pro tracking with NRG-style polling based tracking, and those are different models. 

 

There is likely something to audiences becoming a bit tired of a stream of low quality CBMs recently, but this tweet overstates the case.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

Is No Hard Feelings really the only major release this weekend? Why? 

Asteroid City is expanding to 1,500+ theaters. 

[GOGODanca]

Ruby Gilman Teenage Kraken (D-10):            9 tickets sold (9 locs)

 

Indiana Jones 5 (D-10):                                    460 tickets sold (10 locs)

 

Mission Impossible 7 Early Access (D-21):  268 tickets sold (7 locs)

Mission Impossible 7 Previews (D-20):        376 tickets sold (10 locs)

 

Oppenheimer (D-31):                                        552 tickets sold (10 locs)

[vafrow]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

This part is also key: most of the “beat tracking” movies had good to very good reviews/WOM

 

But I also think it’s fair to say the expectations bar has been raised for CBMs, given where GOTG3 and ATSV landed despite +90% RT scores 

 

True. It's why I tried to use "received well" versus being objectively good.

 

Transformers managed to beat tracking because people seemed to react well to it being half decent. There was very different expectations on the CMB films.

 

I also think you make a good point above about being only two years out since the return to theatres. It's been a period of rapid change, and, I don't think we've really settled into the new norm yet.