The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Austin]

@M37 is there a chance you could post your fancy cool spreadsheet of the OW probabilities after the OW has passed? I am just curious as to how the actual OW aligns up with that sheet. If not, that's fine, it's just a thought.

[keysersoze123]

It appears Quorum is saying 30-35m for Oppenheimer saying low awareness. I am not buying Quorum numbers that much. Its not yet proved its mettle. Based on early presales and amount of trailer views I dont see any issues with Awareness plus I already see tv spots for this movie. 

 

On top of that limited shows listed have robust presales. Let us see how things go. I wont be there to track for key part of its release and not sure I will be back by its release. But hopefully @ZackM will post updates on it along with Indy 5, Flash, MI7 and Barbie :-)

[screambaby]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It appears Quorum is saying 30-35m for Oppenheimer saying low awareness. I am not buying Quorum numbers that much. Its not yet proved its mettle. Based on early presales and amount of trailer views I dont see any issues with Awareness plus I already see tv spots for this movie. 

 

On top of that limited shows listed have robust presales. Let us see how things go. I wont be there to track for key part of its release and not sure I will be back by its release. But hopefully @ZackM will post updates on it along with Indy 5, Flash, MI7 and Barbie 🙂

I'm not big on Oppenheimer but even I think that's a low estiamte

[upriser7]

30M might be bit low but I wouldn't be surprised if Oppenheimer opens to just around $40M. Both Interstellar and Dunkirk opened to around $50M. I'd guess Oppenheimer appeals to slightly more older audience than your typical movie-going audience and considering older audience movie-going numbers have gone down post-covid, and this is R-rated, a $40M opening wouldn't surprise me. One advantage Oppenheimer has over Interstellar, Dunkirk is probably bigger star-cast but not sure how much that would help. I haven't even seen much RDJ content in advertising so far

Edited June 7, 2023 by upriser7

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It appears Quorum is saying 30-35m for Oppenheimer saying low awareness. I am not buying Quorum numbers that much. Its not yet proved its mettle. Based on early presales and amount of trailer views I dont see any issues with Awareness plus I already see tv spots for this movie. 

 

On top of that limited shows listed have robust presales. Let us see how things go. I wont be there to track for key part of its release and not sure I will be back by its release. But hopefully @ZackM will post updates on it along with Indy 5, Flash, MI7 and Barbie 🙂

Quorum tends to be low for fanbase movies and Nolan has a very committed fanbase.

[Mulder]

I feel like 45-50 million for Oppenheimer sounds about right. I could see it being exactly what Dunkirk did or a bit lower just because of the subject matter being a bit more dry. 

[misterpepp]

On 6/6/2023 at 1:50 PM, datpepper said:

There will be Walmart-hosted early screenings on July 9, possibly Walmart+ exclusive.

 

Walmart screenings for M:I7 are now on sale, they are not Walmart+ exclusive.

[Austin]

12 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

Walmart screenings for M:I7 are now on sale, they are not Walmart+ exclusive.

Where do you find this?

[ThomasNicole]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It appears Quorum is saying 30-35m for Oppenheimer saying low awareness. I am not buying Quorum numbers that much. Its not yet proved its mettle. Based on early presales and amount of trailer views I dont see any issues with Awareness plus I already see tv spots for this movie. 

 

On top of that limited shows listed have robust presales. Let us see how things go. I wont be there to track for key part of its release and not sure I will be back by its release. But hopefully @ZackM will post updates on it along with Indy 5, Flash, MI7 and Barbie 🙂

On top of that, at least on twitter every news about Oppenheimer easily gets 70k likes or more in the more popular posts, often +100k

 

And then there’s the “fight” with Barbie that also help both movies in engagement, i can’t see how the awareness is so low, must be something in their method

[misterpepp]

6 minutes ago, Austin said:

Where do you find this?

 

Here

[Austin]

44 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

Here

Ah, that's AMC. The nearest AMC by me is 70 miles away so I hardly ever go to one.

 

Edit: The nearest AMC with one of those MI7 screenings is over 200 miles away lol. The Eden Prarie mall AMC screening in Minneapolis already sold out it looks like.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Austin

[tonytr87]

1 hour ago, upriser7 said:

30M might be bit low but I wouldn't be surprised if Oppenheimer opens to just around $40M. Both Interstellar and Dunkirk opened to around $50M. I'd guess Oppenheimer appeals to slightly more older audience than your typical movie-going audience and considering older audience movie-going numbers have gone down post-covid, and this is R-rated, a $40M opening wouldn't surprise me. One advantage Oppenheimer has over Interstellar, Dunkirk is probably bigger star-cast but not sure how much that would help. I haven't even seen much RDJ content in advertising so far

 

My local IMAX showtimes are close to selling out already. Make of that what it's worth. 

[TheFlatLannister]

running my script right now and oof yeah looking at The Flash hurts

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
88	552	12809	4.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elemental

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
104	582	14573	4.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SELLOUTS

0

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/6/2023 at 8:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
122	1692	27188	6.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-23

 

Outer Orlando miniTC are finally back up so show count is going to be way up for everything 

 

(0.367x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.330x) of FAST X

~$9.9M THUR Previews

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
122	1707	27188	6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-22

 

 

(0.365x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.334x) of FAST X

~$10M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-9 *Post-Embargo

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
152	2758	30704	8.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

150

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.444x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.706x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12.2M THUR Previews 

 

(1.721x) of FAST X

~$12.9M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-9

 

(0.404x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7M THUR Previews

 

(0.643x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$11.2M THUR Previews 

 

(1.569x) of FAST X

~$11.8M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

 

Posted a lot later than I would have liked, but scraper was acting up  

 

Anyways, a boost for sure but not sure if its substantial enough to move the needle (Still seeing $10M-$11M Previews with a chance at going a bit higher) 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screenings

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
189	2815	38172	7.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.441x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.689x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$12M THUR Previews 

 

(1.653x) of FAST X

~$12.4M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$11M Previews 

 

 

COMPS ONLY THURSDAY

T-8

 

(0.401x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$7M THUR Previews

 

(0.629x) of ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

~$10.9M THUR Previews 

 

(1.506x) of FAST X

~$11.3M THUR Previews

 

Points to ~$10M Previews

 

 

Show count went up, sales fell behind

[ringedmortality]

Kind of a depressing Summer so far.

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, rehpyc said:

Real dirty check.. with using SV2 and FX as comps, The Flash is currently looking like 12.4 -12.6M w/ IMAX early screenings and 10.9 - 11.1M w/o. However, the screening has the ATP a bit inflated vs. comps, which I expect to normalize down going forward in comparison and likely drag that projection down a tad.

How many early shows are there for Flash. There are only 13 at MTC1and so it will barely move the needle.

 

 

[Austin]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Kind of a depressing Summer so far.

I mean, we've had 2 hits with GotG3 & ATSV and 2 disappointments with Fast X & TLM. So it hasn't been all bad yet.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2844	35537	8.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

471

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.141x) of Fast X

~$8.6M Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-2

 

(0.761x) of Fast X

~$5.7M Previews 

 

Comp AVG ~$7.1M

Right now I would say $7M +/- .5 (I would take the lower end tbh) 

 

EA is accounting for 33% of preview sales 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Transformer: Rise of the beast

 

THURSDAY includes EA 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
287	3762	58602	6.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

918

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

113

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.268x) of Fast X

~$9.5M Previews 

 

 

COMPS WITHOUT EA

T-1

 

(0.896x) of Fast X

~$6.7M Previews 

 

Comp AVG ~$8.1M

 

Let's see how it goes tomorrow but I would say $8M including EA (Could be $7.5M or $8.5M) 

 

EA is accounting for 41% of preview sales