The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

So, when will we know if The Flash is accelerating like Spider-Verse?

We already know that it’s not. SV2 had spectacular trending for s medium size CBM though.
 

Theoretically any day it could just start to kick up pace a bunch for unclear reasons but the best opportunity to change trajectory was probably 2 days ago and doesn’t really seem to have happened.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[RamblinRed]

8 hours ago, M37 said:

Sure, if I remember.  Here's how ATSV turned out, not sure what T-day this was last updated (T-7?), but can see the IM was right in the middle of the range, while the preview came in a softer than the mid-point shown

 

Spide-Verse OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$16.0	$16.6	$17.1	$17.7	$18.3	$18.8	$19.4	$19.9	$20.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$96.0	$99.4	$102.8	$106.1	$109.5	$112.9	$116.3	$119.6	$123.0
	6.25	$100.0	$103.5	$107.0	$110.5	$114.1	$117.6	$121.1	$124.6	$128.1
	6.50	$104.0	$107.7	$111.3	$115.0	$118.6	$122.3	$125.9	$129.6	$133.3
	6.75	$108.0	$111.8	$115.6	$119.4	$123.2	$127.0	$130.8	$134.6	$138.4
	7.00	$112.0	$115.9	$119.9	$123.8	$127.8	$131.7	$135.6	$139.6	$143.5
	7.25	$116.0	$120.1	$124.2	$128.2	$132.3	$136.4	$140.5	$144.5	$148.6
	7.50	$120.0	$124.2	$128.4	$132.7	$136.9	$141.1	$145.3	$149.5	$153.8
	7.75	$124.0	$128.4	$132.7	$137.1	$141.4	$145.8	$150.2	$154.5	$158.9
	8.00	$128.0	$132.5	$137.0	$141.5	$146.0	$150.5	$155.0	$159.5	$164.0

 

Mermaid also finished soft on previews, and IM slightly below the mid-point for a $95.6M 3-day OW

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.00	$9.60	$10.30	$10.90	$11.50	$12.10	$12.80	$13.40	$14.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.50	$76.5	$81.8	$87.1	$92.4	$97.8	$103.1	$108.4	$113.7	$119.0
	8.75	$78.8	$84.2	$89.7	$95.2	$100.6	$106.1	$111.6	$117.0	$122.5
	9.00	$81.0	$86.6	$92.3	$97.9	$103.5	$109.1	$114.8	$120.4	$126.0
	9.25	$83.3	$89.0	$94.8	$100.6	$106.4	$112.2	$117.9	$123.7	$129.5
	9.50	$85.5	$91.4	$97.9	$103.3	$109.3	$115.2	$121.1	$127.1	$133.0
	9.75	$87.8	$93.8	$99.9	$106.0	$112.1	$118.2	$124.3	$130.4	$136.5
	10.00	$90.0	$96.3	$102.5	$108.8	$115.0	$121.3	$127.5	$133.8	$140.0
	10.25	$92.3	$98.7	$105.1	$111.5	$117.9	$124.3	$130.7	$137.1	$143.5
	10.50	$94.5	$101.1	$107.6	$114.2	$120.8	$127.3	$133.9	$140.4	$147.0

 

 

Both ATSV and TLM were unique release, and saw lower pace on the final day, and over-indexed at MCT1 (metro areas generally).  Flash, like most DC, is expected to the latter, so will just be a question of pace

This is great to go back and look at.

I wonder if the slight underperforms are also partly due to the fact for the first time post-pandemic we are in a place where large openers don't get unlimited screens and no competition. That may lower the ceiling slightly for OW.

 

Vey interested to see your chart for Flash since we are 1 week out.

[M37]

Well, we got the review bump this week that everyone was expecting ...

 

... for Transformers. Count me in the ~$8M Thur/ over $50M camp now. EA shows are a complicating factor in sales patterns, but haven't seen late growth like this for a long time. Might see a lower IM due to EA inflated preview, but Friday sales are similarly showing strong growth, so maybe not

 

Still think there's some merit to this theory, that it's more palatable for casual audiences who for whatever reasons passed on TLM and/or SV, plus reviews are good enough to draw in the regular moviegoers as well

On 6/4/2023 at 8:23 AM, M37 said:

Got me thinking: wonder if despite the apparent competition sandwich all around it, if TF doesn't just appeal more to a bit of an older, more blue collar audience than certainly LM, SV, and probably even Flash will, all of which had/likely will have a clear big city skew. The fact that the story is somewhat disconnected from the franchise in a market full of multiverses and interwoven story lines, might actually be a benefit to people in the mood for a more disposable popcorn action flick

 

The gap between TF and Flash has gotten awfully narrow this week ...

[Dragoncaine]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Well, we got the review bump this week that everyone was expecting ...

 

... for Transformers. Count me in the ~$8M Thur/ over $50M camp now. EA shows are a complicating factor in sales patterns, but haven't seen late growth like this for a long time. Might see a lower IM due to EA inflated preview, but Friday sales are similarly showing strong growth, so maybe not

 

Still think there's some merit to this theory, that it's more palatable for casual audiences who for whatever reasons passed on TLM and/or SV, plus reviews are good enough to draw in the regular moviegoers as well

 

The gap between TF and Flash has gotten awfully narrow this week ...

Crazy that these Transformers reviews are considered good, but I guess it's all relative within the franchise. I'll check it out this weekend

[GOGODanca]

if The Flash has a last week slowdown like Ava2, where would that take its OW?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/7/2023 at 10:50 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-8	Jax	6	62	18	450	9,790	4.60%
		Phx	6	48	46	546	8,749	6.24%
		Ral	8	63	24	405	8,688	4.66%
	Total		20	173	88	1,401	27,227	5.15%
Transformers 6	T-1	Jax	5	74	127	563	10,116	5.57%
		Phx	7	71	115	554	11,257	4.92%
		Ral	8	65	106	473	7,732	6.12%
	Total		20	210	348	1,590	29,105	5.46%
Transformers EA	T-0	Jax	5	7	149	644	1,216	52.96%
		Phx	1	1	16	179	208	86.06%
		Ral	1	1	8	81	101	80.20%
	Total		7	9	173	904	1,525	59.28%

 

Transformers T-1 comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- missed

 - Ghostbusters - 1.135x (4.71m)

 - F9 - .729x (5.18m)

 - Dune - .902x (4.6m)

 - Black Adam - .696x (5.29m)

 - Shang-Chi - .649x (5.71m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .263x (4.66m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.136x (5.66m)*

 - Uncharted - 1.702x (6.3m)*

 

Here are some T-0 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Creed III EA - 2.33x (2.33m)

 - Top Gun 2 EA - .483x (2.22m)

 - Black Phone EA - 5.908x (2.36m)

 - Lost City EA - 3.518x (2.64m)

 - Boogeyman EA - 21.02x (2.1m)

 

Bumping my forecast up to 5.3m true previews + 2.2m EA.  

 

Flash T-8 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.289x (11.34m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.88x (9.78m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.56x (10.61m)

 - F9 - 1.56x (11.05m)

 - Matrix 4 (Wed) - .974x (6.21m)

 - Eternals - .728x (6.91m)

 - Black Adam - 1.42x (10.8m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-7	Jax	6	64	36	486	10,050	4.84%
		Phx	6	48	35	581	8,749	6.64%
		Ral	8	63	26	431	8,688	4.96%
	Total		20	175	97	1,498	27,487	5.45%
Transformers 6	T-0	Jax	5	74	458	1,021	10,116	10.09%
		Phx	7	71	275	829	11,257	7.36%
		Ral	8	78	202	675	8,586	7.86%
	Total		20	223	1,128	2,525	29,959	8.43%

 

Transformers T-0 comps (Excl EA)

 - NTTD- 1.123x (5.84m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.409x (5.85m)

 - F9 - .826x (5.86m)

 - Dune - 1.142x (5.82m)

 - Black Adam - .9x (6.84m)

 - Shang-Chi - .838x (7.38m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .341x (6.03m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.44x (7.17m)*

 - Uncharted - 2.007x (7.43m)*

 

Basically two ranges it could fall in based on these comps.  I lean pretty heavily to the 5.9m comps and will set that as my prediction.  Five comps within 200k is hard to look past.  I'm also trying out a new method that uses growth rate against comps to predict final sales & multipliers.  This is my first attempt at it, so there's no telling how accurate it will be.  That being said, the true Th preview prediction model has spit out 6.24m. 

 

*Sonic 2 and Uncharted comps were incorrect yesterday.  I'll update that post and have corrected them in the quote above.

 

 

Flash T-7 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.281x (11.28m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.02x (10.27m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.6x (10.77m)

 - F9 - 1.552x (11.02m)

 - Eternals - .722x (6.86m)

 - Black Adam - missed

Edited June 8, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Fixed error in sales totals for Transformers

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

if The Flash has a last week slowdown like Ava2, where would that take its OW?

To be clear, that should not happen.  
 

But like… 8*6?

[JustLurking]

the flash has no reason to have an avatar2-esque final week collapse. ava2 basically just started spreading its presales away from OW once the best seats were gone because people considered seeing it in the best way possible a priority. no reason that would happen with flash fwiw.

[Dragoncaine]

Transformers EA reviews are not great to boot - 87% Verified score with under 50 reviews. Obviously ton of wiggle room either way, but only franchise fans would have shown up already, so perhaps not an encouraging start for WoM.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/7/2023 at 7:06 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC2

Previews(T-2) - 33681/531189 488234.6 3896 shows +7507

Friday - 37732/661893 499040.55 4244 shows

 

On 6/6/2023 at 9:08 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 52633/696654 972152.55 3992 shows +7280

Friday - 47688/1015411 851793.86 5859 shows +9945

Transformers

MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 66854/700435 1215428.10 4031 shows +14223

Friday - 57596/1027530 1020071.62 5986 shows +9908

 

MTC2

Previews(T-1) - 46054/538532 658793.88 3941 shows +12373

Friday - 49195/690047 649198.88 4550 shows  +11463

 

Somewhere in 7-8m range and 50m OW. 

[JpTransformers]

47 minutes ago, M37 said:

Well, we got the review bump this week that everyone was expecting ...

 

... for Transformers. Count me in the ~$8M Thur/ over $50M camp now. EA shows are a complicating factor in sales patterns, but haven't seen late growth like this for a long time. Might see a lower IM due to EA inflated preview, but Friday sales are similarly showing strong growth, so maybe not

 

Still think there's some merit to this theory, that it's more palatable for casual audiences who for whatever reasons passed on TLM and/or SV, plus reviews are good enough to draw in the regular moviegoers as well

 

The gap between TF and Flash has gotten awfully narrow this week ...

The gap between TF and Flash has gotten awfully narrow this week?

[Starphanluke]

Transformers doing decent (or at least not a disaster) in the US but collapsing overseas was not on my bingo card. 

 

Interested to see what walkups look like this weekend. My audience last night seemed to enjoy it. I feel like it's almost certainly going to play better to middle America. 

 

Flash tickets around me are super stagnant. No noticeable review bump at all. 

 

Plus, some slightly more positive Indy reactions are rolling in. Wonder if they will move the needle at all.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

This is great to go back and look at.

I wonder if the slight underperforms are also partly due to the fact for the first time post-pandemic we are in a place where large openers don't get unlimited screens and no competition. That may lower the ceiling slightly for OW.

 

Vey interested to see your chart for Flash since we are 1 week out.

While I do think ATSV suffered a bit from lack of capacity (thanks in large part to being underforecasted by trades & Sony), it really has more to do with those two titles - particularly TLM - playing weaker to "Middle America"; that a good number of white, middle aged folks outside of bigger markets just found them ... too "hip" or whatever [do not want to dive down that rabbit hole in this thread]

 

If you look at the market breakdown @rehpyc posted a few days ago, will find that these top 15 markets were collectively nearly 22% higher for ATSV than for GOTG3 for Thu & Fri [and consistent across MTCs, so not a T-Mobile deal effect] but overall the total domestic gross was only 7% more

 

 

While there is always some variation across markets for every release, by default that discrepancy means the secondary and especially lower tier markets were weaker to drag down the total. Had the MTC1 ratio remained in the typical range as for GOTG3, would have seen a $18.5-$19M preview and correspondingly higher OW, and instead we got only $17.35M. The ticket sales pace was there, just didn't spread as wide/broad as the comps being used, so the actual value came in lower

[Legion Again]

Would not be surprised if transformers plays a bit stronger to middle America (relatively of course) and beats comps a tad/come on the higher end. I went with 8.4 (including previews) while pricing on Mon and still feeling around there

Edited June 8, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[M37]

20 minutes ago, JpTransformers said:

The gap between TF and Flash has gotten awfully narrow this week?

Had someone said a week or two ago that TF OW was going to be within $20M of Flash, what would have been the consensus reaction?

 

Now that possibility is absolutely on the table, if not even closer 

[TwoMisfits]

Next TMobile/Atom $5 deal is a weird one...it seems the deal wants you to choose one movie of two to get a $5 ticket to.  And the deal starts next Tuesday, June 13, but I have to see when it ends b/c with the 2 movies, this could be a long time for code use b/c they don't open the same weekend. 

 

The movies are The Blackening OR Joy Ride.  I'd assume the deal will do little to help Joy Ride b/c people don't tend to remember they have money to burn 3 weeks later.

 

As for the Blackening, it's hitting the right demo to buy tickets, but I doubt the movie will get screens to make it worthwhile (since it will be no PLF and single screened almost everywhere).

 

That said, it can't hurt either movie...and of the 2 movies, it will probably help The Blackening more...

 

TMobile $5 Deals 2023

Plane

Creed 3

Wick 4

Are You There God, It's Me Margaret 

Spiderverse

The Blackening OR Joy Ride

 

One of the previous performances was not like the others...but then again, its demo wasn't either.  I will say, the new movies are probably in the right demo of the phone users...but still, we'll see if it's more than a marginal effect...

Edited June 8, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[grey ghost]

11 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Would not be surprised if transformers plays a bit stronger to middle America (relatively of course) and beats comps a tad/come on the higher end. I went with 8.4 (including previews) while pricing on Mon and still feeling around there

 

 

I think TF is still a little too "hip" for middle America.

 

The cast and music is fairly urban.

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Transformers

MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 66854/700435 1215428.10 4031 shows +14223

Friday - 57596/1027530 1020071.62 5986 shows +9908

 

MTC2

Previews(T-1) - 46054/538532 658793.88 3941 shows +12373

Friday - 49195/690047 649198.88 4550 shows  +11463

 

Somewhere in 7-8m range and 50m OW. 

hmm. something off with MTC One FRI.

[JpTransformers]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

Se alguém tivesse dito há uma ou duas semanas que o TF OW estaria dentro de US $ 20 milhões do Flash, qual teria sido a reação do consenso?

 

Agora essa possibilidade está absolutamente sobre a mesa, se não ainda mais perto 

I think I would be as surprised as I was, even though I'm a fan of TRF and thinking that it would have a good increase in sales on weekends I didn't expect values like that.

 

[keysersoze123]

37 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

hmm. something off with MTC One FRI.

Run finished at 430PM pacific yesterday. Earlier than previous day as I went out to see Flash :-)