The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Rageofthegods]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I could see Barbie/Oppenheimer pulling a WALL-E/Wanted to deliver a combined $100M+ opening weekend alone if the stars perfectly align for both of them.

You're thinking too small. 

 

100m for both!

[WorkingonaName]

Barbie doesn't need openheimer. 

[DAJK]

Transformers EA sales were actually pretty solid here. Can’t remember which user said this already, but I was seeing the same thing; numbers weren’t far off from TLM EA a few weeks ago, but that being said TLM underperformed in Canada relative to its overall domestic opening.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/6/2023 at 2:59 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Transformers 6 MiniTC2 T-3

 

Early shows - 1700/3946 (16 showings) $24,683
Previews - 1615/59449 (236 showings) $22,650

Comps
1.21x Fast X - $9.07M
0.81x John Wick 4 - $7.22M

 

Transformers 6 MiniTC2 T-1

 

Early shows - 3074/3946 (16 showings) $44,050

Previews - 3354/60613 (241 showings) $45,093 

 

Comps
1.46x Fast X - $10.9M
0.90x John Wick 4 - $8M

Strong early shows. Basically Sold Out with 78% occupancy.

Edited June 8, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[M37]

5 hours ago, Austin said:

@M37 is there a chance you could post your fancy cool spreadsheet of the OW probabilities after the OW has passed? I am just curious as to how the actual OW aligns up with that sheet. If not, that's fine, it's just a thought.

Sure, if I remember.  Here's how ATSV turned out, not sure what T-day this was last updated (T-7?), but can see the IM was right in the middle of the range, while the preview came in a softer than the mid-point shown

 

Spide-Verse OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$16.0	$16.6	$17.1	$17.7	$18.3	$18.8	$19.4	$19.9	$20.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$96.0	$99.4	$102.8	$106.1	$109.5	$112.9	$116.3	$119.6	$123.0
	6.25	$100.0	$103.5	$107.0	$110.5	$114.1	$117.6	$121.1	$124.6	$128.1
	6.50	$104.0	$107.7	$111.3	$115.0	$118.6	$122.3	$125.9	$129.6	$133.3
	6.75	$108.0	$111.8	$115.6	$119.4	$123.2	$127.0	$130.8	$134.6	$138.4
	7.00	$112.0	$115.9	$119.9	$123.8	$127.8	$131.7	$135.6	$139.6	$143.5
	7.25	$116.0	$120.1	$124.2	$128.2	$132.3	$136.4	$140.5	$144.5	$148.6
	7.50	$120.0	$124.2	$128.4	$132.7	$136.9	$141.1	$145.3	$149.5	$153.8
	7.75	$124.0	$128.4	$132.7	$137.1	$141.4	$145.8	$150.2	$154.5	$158.9
	8.00	$128.0	$132.5	$137.0	$141.5	$146.0	$150.5	$155.0	$159.5	$164.0

 

Mermaid also finished soft on previews, and IM slightly below the mid-point for a $95.6M 3-day OW

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.00	$9.60	$10.30	$10.90	$11.50	$12.10	$12.80	$13.40	$14.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.50	$76.5	$81.8	$87.1	$92.4	$97.8	$103.1	$108.4	$113.7	$119.0
	8.75	$78.8	$84.2	$89.7	$95.2	$100.6	$106.1	$111.6	$117.0	$122.5
	9.00	$81.0	$86.6	$92.3	$97.9	$103.5	$109.1	$114.8	$120.4	$126.0
	9.25	$83.3	$89.0	$94.8	$100.6	$106.4	$112.2	$117.9	$123.7	$129.5
	9.50	$85.5	$91.4	$97.9	$103.3	$109.3	$115.2	$121.1	$127.1	$133.0
	9.75	$87.8	$93.8	$99.9	$106.0	$112.1	$118.2	$124.3	$130.4	$136.5
	10.00	$90.0	$96.3	$102.5	$108.8	$115.0	$121.3	$127.5	$133.8	$140.0
	10.25	$92.3	$98.7	$105.1	$111.5	$117.9	$124.3	$130.7	$137.1	$143.5
	10.50	$94.5	$101.1	$107.6	$114.2	$120.8	$127.3	$133.9	$140.4	$147.0

 

 

Both ATSV and TLM were unique release, and saw lower pace on the final day, and over-indexed at MCT1 (metro areas generally).  Flash, like most DC, is expected to the latter, so will just be a question of pace

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sure, if I remember.  Here's how ATSV turned out, not sure what T-day this was last updated (T-7?), but can see the IM was right in the middle of the range, while the preview came in a softer than the mid-point shown

 

Spide-Verse OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$16.0	$16.6	$17.1	$17.7	$18.3	$18.8	$19.4	$19.9	$20.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$96.0	$99.4	$102.8	$106.1	$109.5	$112.9	$116.3	$119.6	$123.0
	6.25	$100.0	$103.5	$107.0	$110.5	$114.1	$117.6	$121.1	$124.6	$128.1
	6.50	$104.0	$107.7	$111.3	$115.0	$118.6	$122.3	$125.9	$129.6	$133.3
	6.75	$108.0	$111.8	$115.6	$119.4	$123.2	$127.0	$130.8	$134.6	$138.4
	7.00	$112.0	$115.9	$119.9	$123.8	$127.8	$131.7	$135.6	$139.6	$143.5
	7.25	$116.0	$120.1	$124.2	$128.2	$132.3	$136.4	$140.5	$144.5	$148.6
	7.50	$120.0	$124.2	$128.4	$132.7	$136.9	$141.1	$145.3	$149.5	$153.8
	7.75	$124.0	$128.4	$132.7	$137.1	$141.4	$145.8	$150.2	$154.5	$158.9
	8.00	$128.0	$132.5	$137.0	$141.5	$146.0	$150.5	$155.0	$159.5	$164.0

 

Mermaid also finished soft on previews, and IM slightly below the mid-point for a $95.6M 3-day OW

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.00	$9.60	$10.30	$10.90	$11.50	$12.10	$12.80	$13.40	$14.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.50	$76.5	$81.8	$87.1	$92.4	$97.8	$103.1	$108.4	$113.7	$119.0
	8.75	$78.8	$84.2	$89.7	$95.2	$100.6	$106.1	$111.6	$117.0	$122.5
	9.00	$81.0	$86.6	$92.3	$97.9	$103.5	$109.1	$114.8	$120.4	$126.0
	9.25	$83.3	$89.0	$94.8	$100.6	$106.4	$112.2	$117.9	$123.7	$129.5
	9.50	$85.5	$91.4	$97.9	$103.3	$109.3	$115.2	$121.1	$127.1	$133.0
	9.75	$87.8	$93.8	$99.9	$106.0	$112.1	$118.2	$124.3	$130.4	$136.5
	10.00	$90.0	$96.3	$102.5	$108.8	$115.0	$121.3	$127.5	$133.8	$140.0
	10.25	$92.3	$98.7	$105.1	$111.5	$117.9	$124.3	$130.7	$137.1	$143.5
	10.50	$94.5	$101.1	$107.6	$114.2	$120.8	$127.3	$133.9	$140.4	$147.0

 

 

Both ATSV and TLM were unique release, and saw lower pace on the final day, and over-indexed at MCT1 (metro areas generally).  Flash, like most DC, is expected to the latter, so will just be a question of pace

Insane how on the money you were.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Insane how on the money you were.

Goal is be in the darker green target zone, so slight misses on both, though the metro/MTC overindex (or under, when it happens) is something that's often difficult to predict in advance. Pace of sales/final tally was mostly accurate from those T-7 projections

 

And to be clear, while I make and post the chart, all of the data underlying the Thursday number and even some of the IM range is from all the trackers grinding out (mostly) daily updates. Would be a lot less accurate if I was just winging it on my own [I'm just the weirdo that found it more efficient to focus on tracking the trackers]

[JpTransformers]

we have a totally opposite effect among critics and audiences for Transformers, at least initially. I definitely expected an opening below 75% for the public. 

[Mulder]

Just now, JpTransformers said:

we have a totally opposite effect among critics and audiences for Transformers, at least initially. I definitely expected an opening below 75% for the public. 

If you mean the verified score, keep in mind that only people who saw the EA screening have access to that so it's going to be fan-loaded and also the number's pretty low. By Friday or Saturday the reception should be more clear. Not to mention, for all audiences it's a decent bit lower at 89%.

[JpTransformers]

9 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Se você quer dizer a pontuação verificada, lembre-se de que apenas as pessoas que viram a triagem da EA têm acesso a ela, então ela será carregada por fãs e também o número é bem baixo. Na sexta ou sábado a recepção deve estar mais clara. Sem mencionar que, para todos os públicos, é um pouco mais baixo, com 89%.

I speak in general, it is more acceptable because it already has a more reasonable number that have been checked, but I really expected the critical trend like not other films. let's see how it holds up as per the world premiere. if you keep a percentage above 80% you can definitely have good legs 

[THUNDER BIRD]

20 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If you mean the verified score, keep in mind that only people who saw the EA screening have access to that so it's going to be fan-loaded and also the number's pretty low. By Friday or Saturday the reception should be more clear. Not to mention, for all audiences it's a decent bit lower at 89%.

All audience score doesn't matter.

[keysersoze123]

Transformers Fan Shows Final

MTC1 - 27745/35986 539538.37 179 shows +3271

MTC2 - 18830/24509 295354.25 134 shows +3854

 

Charlie should be on the money about 1.5m for shows today.  Since I was in early show for The Flash I dont have the T-1 data for previews. Will update in the morning. 

 

 

 

[romeross]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers Fan Shows Final

MTC1 - 27745/35986 539538.37 179 shows +3271

MTC2 - 18830/24509 295354.25 134 shows +3854

 

Charlie should be on the money about 1.5m for shows today.  Since I was in early show for The Flash I dont have the T-1 data for previews. Will update in the morning. 

 

 

 

55 million possible OW?

[vafrow]

On 6/6/2023 at 10:33 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers Rise of the Beasts T-3 update

Milton, Ontario 

 

Updating to have a bit of a benchmark to see if reviews do anything for the trend.

 

Fast X comp has declined. ROTB now at 0.442X of Fast X, for $3.3M. My theatre doesn't have an early access show, but others nearby do. It may be drawing business away.

 

Hopefully reviews lead to an uptick, but it's currently lagging, with no real signs of life on previews. The ATS comp is even worse at 0.124x for $910K. 

 

 

Transformers Rise of the Beasts T-1 update

Milton, Ontario

 

Only 33 tickets sold and a Fast X comp of 0.434X of Fast X, for $3.25M, so no real change here.

 

It's also ar 1.14X The Little Mermaid, which really under indexed in Canada, and my theatre even more. The Spiderverse comp only gets worse at 0.097 for $1.7M.

[vafrow]

On 6/4/2023 at 6:19 AM, vafrow said:

Milton, Ontario Flash T-12

 

With Across the Spiderverse totals in, it gives me a comp for Flash. Not the greatest, but it's something.

 

Flash is at 0.267X of S:ATS for $4.6M. 

 

Not great, but, looking around my area, the theatres with better and more premium screens are doing a lot better. This is likely drawing people to the better formats at this stage.

 

Flash T-8 update, Milton, Ontario

 

Currently at 30 tickets sold for a nice and even 0.30x of Spiderverse for $5.1M. Very little movement this week, even with the review drop.

 

It's 2.50x Fast X for $18.75 M though. But Fast X was in the process of really accelerating in it's final week.

[Porthos]

On 6/7/2023 at 2:37 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-2]

2502/24862 [10.06% sold] [+524 tickets] [Wed: + 141 | Thr: + 383]

0.32624x the sales of JWD at T-2                   [6.57m]

0.91068x the sales of Black Adam at T-2       [7.40m]

0.74726x the sales of Wick 4 at T-2               [6.96m]

0.96206x the sales of Fast X at T-2                [7.87m]

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-1]

3432/25686 [13.36% sold] [+930 tickets] [Wed: + 247 | Thr: + 683]

0.35543x the sales of TGM at T-1                   [6.85m]

0.40765x the sales of JWD at T-1                   [7.34m]

1.08814x the sales of Black Adam at T-1        [8.27m]

0.87663x the sales of Wick 4 at T-1               [7.80m]

1.17213x the sales of Fast X at T-1                 [8.79m]

 

===

 

Guess I should have been tracking this For Realz all along!!!

 

(Good news is, I'll be able to backport about half of this run to my Historical Master Sheets, if without most of my internal bells and whistles)

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/7/2023 at 2:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18674	19521	847	4.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

11

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.91		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		10966	7.72%		8.62m
FX	110.86		9	764		0/182	26961/27725	2.76%		8363	10.13%		8.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     143/6084  [2.35% sold]
Matinee:    57/1728  [3.30% | 6.73% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18626	19521	895	4.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

48

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.47		41	1809		0/179	22839/24647	7.34%		10966	8.16%		8.91m
FX	114.74		16	780		0/182	26942/27722	2.81%		8363	10.70%		8.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     152/6084  [2.50% sold]
Matinee:    57/1728  [3.30% | 6.37% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/7/2023 at 2:39 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

Total Showings Removed Today	3
Total Seats Removed Today	255
Total Seats Sold Today	120

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	32.26		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	13.18%		6.97m
BA	129.95		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	34.47%		9.88m
Shazam 2	342.70		4	452		0/110	17360/17812	2.54%		1663	93.14%		11.65m
Wick 4	105.88		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	28.43%		9.42m
AtSV	59.74		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	15.90%		10.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     264/5286  [4.99% sold]
Matinee:    25/2140  [1.17% | 1.61% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23488	25148	1660	6.60%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	255
Total Seats Sold Today	111

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	33.36		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	14.12%		7.21m
BA	130.30		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	36.94%		9.90m
Shazam 2	342.98		32	484		0/110	17328/17812	2.72%		1663	99.82%		11.66m
Wick 4	104.86		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	30.47%		9.33m
AtSV	60.01		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	17.04%		10.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     269/5286  [5.09% sold]
Matinee:    33/2140  [1.54% | 1.99% of all tickets sold]

[YSLDC]

So, when will we know if The Flash is accelerating like Spider-Verse?

[WebSurfer]

11 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

So, when will we know if The Flash is accelerating like Spider-Verse?

I mean he runs fast right?

🙃