The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXR & Friends]

16 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

For those that track this, have the weekend sales picked up for Flash at all, or is it still pretty anemic?

It has picked up relative to how it looked 2-3 days ago but I don’t want that misinterpreted. We’re still looking at a ~60M opening.

[Tinalera]

On 6/13/2023 at 5:11 AM, vafrow said:

 

T-3 Flash Thursday preview update

Milton, ON

 

I wasn't planning to do daily updates on this, but, given the traffic in this thread, I figure I might as well add more data, as limited as it is.

 

Sales did see a 20% bump, which is what it needs to stay pace right now. Just not enough to make up ground.

 

0.885x of Fast X for $6.6M

2.000x of ROTB for $15.2M

0.249x of ATSV for $4.3M

 

ROTB had its review embargo lift on the T-2 update, but it still didn't see much movement until it's final day walk ups.

 

Schools are also in full session right now in this region, so things will underindex for previews compared to other areas.

 

@Tinalera have you tracked Flash for any Canadian theatres? I'd be curious how other theatres are doing in this region.

I have not been tracking anything recently-I have had some stuff going on that Ive been unable to do tracking. I am sorry about that . Hoping to get back to doing tracking soon. 

[ZackM]

On 6/13/2023 at 7:56 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	Previous 3 Days
Showings Added	189	0	9
Seats Added	23,279	0	912
Seats Sold	8,738	4,575	9,973
6/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	2,933	90,177	552,522	16.32%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	21	88	181
ATP	Gross
$18.41	$1,660,159

 

 

**IGNORE** **SEE UPDATE DOWN THE PAGE**

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last 2 Days		3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	Previous 3
Showings Added	380		189	0	9
Seats Added	44,380		23,279	0	912
Seats Sold	11,376		8,738	4,575	9,973
6/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	3,313	101,553	596,902	17.01%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	27	100	221
ATP	Gross
$18.23	$1,851,311

Edited June 15, 2023 by ZackM

[GOGODanca]

24 hour check (Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Pt 1) EA + Tuesday:

 

444 tickets sold

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by GOGODanca

[excel1]

8 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last 2 Days		3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	Previous 3
Showings Added	380		189	0	9
Seats Added	44,380		23,279	0	912
Seats Sold	11,376		8,738	4,575	9,973
6/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	3,313	101,553	596,902	17.01%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	27	100	221
ATP	Gross
$18.23	$1,851,311

 

comps vs. transform, black Adam, jurassic world 3?

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last 2 Days		3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	Previous 3
Showings Added	380		189	0	9
Seats Added	44,380		23,279	0	912
Seats Sold	11,376		8,738	4,575	9,973
6/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	3,313	101,553	596,902	17.01%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	27	100	221
ATP	Gross
$18.23	$1,851,311

This can't be right. I think you put previous day update.

Edited June 15, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[excel1]

15 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

This can't be right. I think you put previous day update.

 

yes that looks more like the 2 days ago update. 

 

Other Alpha day 1/day 0 updates:

-Black Adam: 133,825 - 8 pm on Thursday / about 147k total previews @ $16.76 per ticket, did $7.6m previews total

-Jurassic World 3: 151,951 @ $16.97 / 180,854 sold @ $16.76; total previews came in 254,515 @ $16.32, did $18m previews total

Edited June 15, 2023 by excel1

[ZackM]

20 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

This can't be right. I think you put previous day update.

There could be an issue with the data seeing as things have been acting weird lately, but it's not from the previous day.  These numbers are from a run that completed at 11:50pm ET last night.

 

[vafrow]

37 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I have not been tracking anything recently-I have had some stuff going on that Ive been unable to do tracking. I am sorry about that . Hoping to get back to doing tracking soon. 

 

No worries. I was just thinking that it would be interesting to see if there's much difference elsewhere, since my theatre has been underindexing compared to others. After it came out that Little Mermaid had widely different numbers in Canada than the states, it makes me wonder what other films may have different performances.

 

I hope things settle down for you.

[ZackM]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

There could be an issue with the data seeing as things have been acting weird lately, but it's not from the previous day.  These numbers are from a run that completed at 11:50pm ET last night.

 

I'll do a quick run now though as a sanity check.

[ZackM]

49 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I'll do a quick run now though as a sanity check.

Definitely an issue with the data.  New run says 123k.  I don't have any 10am comps, but I'd guess the real number for last night was around 115k

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-8	Jax	6	9	10	73	875	8.34%
		Phx	4	8	12	38	564	6.74%
		Ral	5	10	2	22	848	2.59%
	Total		15	27	24	133	2,287	5.82%
Blackening	T-1	Jax	5	13	23	31	1,060	2.92%
		Phx	7	16	5	34	1,646	2.07%
		Ral	6	14	5	16	802	2.00%
	Total		18	43	33	81	3,508	2.31%
Blackening (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	4	14	87	357	24.37%
		Phx	3	3	9	84	210	40.00%
		Ral	6	6	8	51	655	7.79%
	Total		13	13	31	222	1,222	18.17%
Elemental	T-1	Jax	5	39	31	140	4,734	2.96%
		Phx	7	49	38	182	5,897	3.09%
		Ral	8	39	45	158	4,743	3.33%
	Total		20	127	114	480	15,374	3.12%
Flash	T-1	Jax	6	68	144	886	10,428	8.50%
		Phx	7	59	204	1,058	9,670	10.94%
		Ral	8	63	127	830	8,688	9.55%
	Total		21	190	475	2,774	28,786	9.64%
Indiana Jones	T-15	Jax	6	64	4	243	10,205	2.38%
		Phx	6	43	13	155	8,309	1.87%
		Ral	8	53	9	260	7,972	3.26%
	Total		20	160	26	658	26,486	2.48%
No Feelings	T-8	Jax	5	15	2	3	1,284	0.23%
		Phx	6	18	0	7	1,722	0.41%
		Ral	6	17	2	8	1,568	0.51%
	Total		17	50	4	18	4,574	0.39%
No Feelings (EA)	T-3	Jax	2	2	2	6	134	4.48%
		Phx	1	1	4	4	71	5.63%
	Total		3	3	6	10	205	4.88%
Oppenheimer	T-36	Jax	6	23	2	124	4,698	2.64%
		Phx	6	26	5	117	4,969	2.35%
		Ral	8	22	2	111	2,837	3.91%
	Total		20	71	9	352	12,504	2.82%

 

Flash T-1 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.133x (9.97m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.33x (11.34m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.98x (8.22m)

 - F9 - 1.272x (9.03m)

 - Eternals - .812x (7.71m)

 - Black Adam - 1.215x (9.23m)

 - Morbius - 1.6x (9.13m)

 

For @Into the Legion-Verse I'll start adding the "size adjusted averages".  Flash - $8.56m

New model is predicting 7.91m previews.  I'm still thinking in the 9m range personally.

 

Blackening T-1 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .54x (648k)

 - Men - .628x (266k)

 - Firestarter - .73x (274k)

 - Night House - 2.893x (752k)

 - Smile - .466x (791k)

 - Boogeyman - .723x (723k)

 - Forever Purge - .6x (798k)

 - Popes Exorcist - missed

 - X - .596x (262k)

 

Size adjusted average - 534k

 

Blackening + EA T-1 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .521x (1.56m)

 - Smile + EA - .765x (1.53m)

 - The Menu + EA - .851x (851k)

 - Boogeyman + EA - 1.955x (2.15m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

Elemental T-1 comps

 - Lightyear - .407x (1.99m)

 - Strange World - 5.106x (4.085m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.55x (2.32m)

 - Paws of Fury - 4.85x (2.45m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.743x (3.59m)

 - Super Pets - 1.622x (3.57m)

 - Bad Guys - 3.158x (3.63m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.56m

The new model is pointing to ~2.25m for this one.

 

Asteroid City T-8 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .887x (1.77m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.586x (2.29m)

 - The Menu - 1.291x (1.16m)

 - Violent Night - 1.602x (1.76m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.487m

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .966x (483k)

 - Violent Night - .337x (371k)

 - 80 for Brady Total - .133x (169k)

 - Lost City Total - .135x (440k)

 

Size adjusted average - 496k

 

Indiana Jones T-15 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .327x (5.56m)

 - F9 - 1.216x (8.64m)

 - JW3 - .338x (5.98m)

 - NTTD - 1.86x (9.67m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .406x (5.97m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.006x (8.95m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.261x (9.38m)

 

Size adjusted average - 8.02m

 

Oppenheimer T-36 comps

 - JW3 - missed

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-7	Jax	6	9	4	77	875	8.80%
		Phx	4	8	9	47	564	8.33%
		Ral	5	10	2	24	848	2.83%
	Total		15	27	15	148	2,287	6.47%
Blackening	T-0	Jax	5	13	30	61	1,060	5.75%
		Phx	7	16	4	38	1,646	2.31%
		Ral	7	17	10	26	1,032	2.52%
	Total		19	46	44	125	3,738	3.34%
Blackening (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	4	14	87	357	24.37%
		Phx	3	3	9	84	210	40.00%
		Ral	6	6	8	51	655	7.79%
	Total		13	13	31	222	1,222	18.17%
Elemental	T-0	Jax	5	40	42	182	4,849	3.75%
		Phx	7	49	97	279	5,897	4.73%
		Ral	8	42	51	209	4,896	4.27%
	Total		20	131	190	670	15,642	4.28%
Flash	T-0	Jax	6	70	306	1,192	10,530	11.32%
		Phx	7	59	245	1,303	9,670	13.47%
		Ral	8	72	281	1,111	9,387	11.84%
	Total		21	201	832	3,606	29,587	12.19%
Indiana Jones	T-14	Jax	6	64	6	249	10,205	2.44%
		Phx	6	43	12	167	8,309	2.01%
		Ral	8	53	2	262	7,972	3.29%
	Total		20	160	20	678	26,486	2.56%
M:I 7	T-26	Jax	5	67	75	75	10,608	0.71%
		Phx	6	58	35	35	11,155	0.31%
		Ral	7	52	66	66	8,186	0.81%
	Total		18	177	176	176	29,949	0.59%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-25	Jax	4	6	42	42	1,277	3.29%
		Phx	1	1	24	24	410	5.85%
		Ral	1	1	20	20	261	7.66%
	Total		6	8	86	86	1,948	4.41%
No Feelings	T-7	Jax	5	15	4	7	1,284	0.55%
		Phx	6	18	4	11	1,722	0.64%
		Ral	6	17	5	13	1,568	0.83%
	Total		17	50	13	31	4,574	0.68%
No Feelings (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	2	0	6	134	4.48%
		Phx	1	1	2	6	71	8.45%
	Total		3	3	2	12	205	5.85%
Oppenheimer	T-35	Jax	6	23	1	125	4,698	2.66%
		Phx	6	26	11	128	4,969	2.58%
		Ral	8	22	10	121	2,837	4.27%
	Total		20	71	22	374	12,504	2.99%

 

Flash T-0 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.197x (10.54m)

 - Shazam 2 - 2.87x (9.75m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.01x (8.35m)

 - F9 - 1.18x (8.38m)

 - Eternals - .87x (8.26m)

 - Black Adam - 1.286x (9.77m)

 - Morbius - 1.609x (9.17m)

 

Size adjusted average - 8.96m

New model projection - 9.15m 

Chart prediction - 10m

 

Blackening T-0 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .506x (607k)

 - Men - .828x (350k)

 - Firestarter - .845x (317k)

 - Night House - 3.125x (812k)

 - Smile - .622x (1.06m)

 - Boogeyman - .625x (749k)

 - Forever Purge - .563x (750k)

 - Popes Exorcist - .616x (523k)

 - X - .561x (247k)

 

Size adjusted average - 559k

New model projection (minus outliers) - 640k

 

Elemental T-0 comps

 - Lightyear - .389x (1.91m)

 - Strange World - 3.564x (2.85m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.482x (2.22m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.04x (2.54m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 2.587x (3.39m)

 - Super Pets - 1.46x (3.21m)

 - Bad Guys - 3.088x (3.55m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.45m

New model projection - 2.69m

 

Asteroid City T-7 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .897x (1.79m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.625x (2.31m)

 - The Menu - 1.495x (1.35m)

 - Violent Night - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 1.56m

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-7 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.344x (672k)

 - Violent Night - missed

 - 80 for Brady Total - .174x (221k)

 - Lost City Total - .178x (577k)

 

Size adjusted average - 615k

 

Indiana Jones T-14 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .318x (5.4m)

 - F9 - 1.189x (8.45m)

 - JW3 - .342x (6.05m)

 - NTTD - 1.76x (9.16m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .395x (5.81m)

 - John Wick 4 - .94x (8.37m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.988x (8.25m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.71m

 

M:I 7 (Total) 24hr comps

 - F9 (24hrs) - .963x (6.84m)

 - JW3 (23hrs) - .264x (4.74m)

 - Top Gun (23hrs) - .252x (4.86m)

 - Shazam 2 (22hrs) - 1.926x (6.55m)

 

Oppenheimer T-35 comps

 - JW3 - missed

 

This is getting a little out of hand.  Tomorrow I will switch to multiple posts - one for each release week.  I'm not really a fan of splitting things out into a ton of posts as it clogs up the board, but a wall of text isn't much better to look at.  Grouping by release week will allow for quoted threads to have a start/end instead of being one long string that lasts for years.  I would have done it today but I'm already 3.5 hours in and need to call it 😬

[excel1]

12 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Definitely an issue with the data.  New run says 123k.  I don't have any 10am comps, but I'd guess the real number for last night was around 115k

 

Thanks for running it again!

 

You think its added 13.5k yesterday and then added another 8k in the 10 hours today so far? If Tues was 11.3k added, would think Yesterday was probably closer to 17-18k w/ another 5k so far today. Either way looking at past comps, that is actually a pretty nice bump, very close to Jurassic World last year and far ahead of Black Adam. 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by excel1

[Flopped]

So that's the Thursday number gonna be for The Flasher based on all this data? 

[M37]

19 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Definitely an issue with the data.  New run says 123k.  I don't have any 10am comps, but I'd guess the real number for last night was around 115k

That definitely makes more sense. Thinking around 180/185K finish from there, but who knows anymore 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

That definitely makes more sense. Thinking around 180/185K finish from there, but who knows anymore 

if its only 115K, even 170K will be tough, proly 117-120 ish.

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW y'all gonna adjust MI7 comps (say 20-30%) for the discount? I remember we were expecting $50M OD for FFH, but ended up just $39M I think.

Edited June 15, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, Flopped said:

So that's the Thursday number gonna be for The Flasher based on all this data? 

9.5-10.5

[YSLDC]

6 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

9.5-10.5

 

At least it got saved from the 8 range 

[excel1]

26 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

if its only 115K, even 170K will be tough, proly 117-120 ish.

 

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

That definitely makes more sense. Thinking around 180/185K finish from there, but who knows anymore 

 

No way it was only at 115k last night, that would mean Wed barely increased from Tues and that the far today, it has added 8k in tickets between midnight and 10 am eastern time when sales are no doubt very spare, even on the day release. It was probably near 120 and trending up big. 200k+ should happen with relative ease. 😎

 

Jurassic Got $17.5m out of 250k admissions; Flash get 80% of that number with a slightly higher avg ticket + all the advanced show times...$15m previews maybe??

Edited June 15, 2023 by excel1