The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[titanic2187]

17 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

Somehow I feel like every single time I see someone talk about “keeping expectations realistic” they mean “keeping expectations low” when those are in fact two totally different things from each other.

Yeah, that is why it is important NOT to assume which one I am referring to. 

[vale9001]

Actually Barbie has an action star

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kens fighting

 

 

 

 

 

a third act final battle in BarbieLand

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by vale9001

[M37]

39 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

Somehow I feel like every single time I see someone talk about “keeping expectations realistic” they mean “keeping expectations low” when those are in fact two totally different things from each other.

But they are usually linked, in that there is a tendency to get carried away and over-project on the high end, though there are occasions where the doom & gloom is overstated.
Barbie in particular is a film where a lot of online hype and female skewing audience could lead to huge early sales rush that paces only moderately from there (fwiw, something I’ve cautioned about for Oppenheimer too based on PLF draw)

 

I’d rather set a “realistic” aka lower bar and be pleasantly surprised on the few occasions when it gets beaten, than aim too high and be “disappointed” over and over 

[rehpyc]

On 6/21/2023 at 9:16 AM, rehpyc said:

Indy T-9

NTTD: 8.81M

GA: 10.76M

JWD: 8.26M

JW4: 11.88M

Flash: 7.84M

TLM: 9.75M

 

All but JW4 have a current trajectory of 7-8M, but I anticipate for those to lift a bit as we get closer, for more of a 8-9M range that JW4 covers.

 

 

Indy T-8

NTTD: 8.28M

GA: 10.49M

JWD: 8.21M

JW4: 11.51M

Flash: 7.94M

TLM: 9.62M

 

Each of this, short of NTTD, maintained that positive uptick started yesterday, pointing towards the 8-9M range that JW4 has also begun pointing at.

[M37]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

what are you guys expectations for insidious 5 ow?

Like $20M, so $17-$23? Has been a while since we had a horror film, and that’s the rough level where the major ones seem to land for OW since Smile, barring a breakout (like M3G), or being terrible (Cabin)

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

But they are usually linked, in that there is a tendency to get carried away and over-project on the high end, though there are occasions where the doom & gloom is overstated.
Barbie in particular is a film where a lot of online hype and female skewing audience could lead to huge early sales rush that paces only moderately from there (fwiw, something I’ve cautioned about for Oppenheimer too based on PLF draw)

 

I’d rather set a “realistic” aka lower bar and be pleasantly surprised on the few occasions when it gets beaten, than aim too high and be “disappointed” over and over 

I'd rather set a bar which things come over 50% of the time and under 50% of the time since that's maximally realistic 😛

[keysersoze123]

So industry tracking of MI7 is at 90m. @Shawn is this all the grosses from previous Sunday or just for 3 days. 

[Joyous Legion]

Agree with caution on Barbie though. This is a great start clearly but is it going to open like minions... or IM like twilight? Very different scenarios, still quite unclear to me.

[keysersoze123]

Barbie sales for friday is also robust. Its not behaving like an uber frontloaded movie like say SH movies. 

[XXR & Friends]

Reminder

 

Not a discussion thread. If you want to talk about the box office prospects of Barbie, there’s a Barbie thread. This goes for all other films as well. I know a lot of conversations are tangentially related to tracking but even those can be pulled out of this thread and into the respective film thread.

[Cmasterclay]

How do Indy Friday-Sunday sales look? My hope based on KOTCS (and kinda NTTD) was that this would be very backloaded towards the weekend.

[Shawn Robbins]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So industry tracking of MI7 is at 90m. @Shawn is this all the grosses from previous Sunday or just for 3 days. 

My understanding is it would include all grosses through Sunday (so the five-day opening plus all previews), but I don't have NRG which is where those trades are probably getting it from.

 

That generally lines up with our long range forecast from last week, though. I think $100M+ through Sunday is very doable at the moment.

[M37]

21 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

I'd rather set a bar which things come over 50% of the time and under 50% of the time since that's maximally realistic 😛

But runs into the problem of having a small, nuanced, and constantly evolving data set where setting upper and lower bounds that determine a 80/90% CI and therefore 50% outcome is a fairly subjective process 

 

Whether one considers AMWQ, GOTG3, BA or Transformers to be normal-ish or more outlier-y outcomes weighs heavily on setting a mid-point for future releases 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

How do Indy Friday-Sunday sales look? My hope based on KOTCS (and kinda NTTD) was that this would be very backloaded towards the weekend.

Friday PS is about 70% of previews. I would say better than the uber frontloaded franchise but it does not scream backloaded either. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

My understanding is it would include all grosses through Sunday (so the five-day opening plus all previews), but I don't have NRG which is where those trades are probably getting it from.

 

That generally lines up with our long range forecast from last week, though. I think $100M+ through Sunday is very doable at the moment.

if its including all shows to 1st Sunday, the tracking is reasonable. I thought it was very optimistic if its just for 3 day. Sales are skewing shows until Tuesday so far. Beyond that its very anemic for now. 

[M37]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Barbie sales for friday is also robust. Its not behaving like an uber frontloaded movie like say SH movies. 

Friday should do well regardless, typical of female driven audiences, even in summer. Bigger question to me will be Sat, whether it sustains or drops off from TFri

[vale9001]

The point Is Barbie has appeal also on families (especially with female kids) and i don't think they're buying tickets One month before.

 

So the incredibile situation is making this movie a phenomenon is they created "a fanbase" It's buying tickets One month before like It's a huge franchise but then the families that would have made a "normal" Barbie movie a 30-40m opener will came at the end. And this is how you get a 100m debut. 

Edited June 22, 2023 by vale9001

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MI7 MTC1

Monday - 15913/53456 342674.81 217 shows +628

Tuesday - 22540/564318 435910.86 2756 shos +1251

 

I guess this is going to get interesting only in the final week if its going to be excessively walkup driven. I guess comps could be JWD. But even that was at higher level but pace was lower as PS started way earlier. So let us see how things comp in the final week. 

MI7 MTC1

Monday - 16401/53468 352859.73 217 shows +488

Tuesday - 23463/564125 453284.95 2754 shows +923

Wednesday - 8535/729214 166018.57 3524 shows

Friday - 10390/772698 199540.64 3730 shows

 

As I posted earlier Walmart and Monday early shows mean the Opening day and friday sales are anemic and pace is also not great at the moment. 

 

Still tracking is for 8 days of box office and so I am not seeing a risk there. 

[keysersoze123]

There is no way to automatically grab walmart see it first shows for MI7 but looking at few markets at Atom, sales are anemic. I dont know who would want to see MI7 on standard screens when PLF is available from Monday. So I am not expecting the walmart shows to move the needle that much. Are there any special discounts for Walmart+ customers. May be that would make it amenable to families who want to see it. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Barbie's EA is one of the toughest to deal with since it has sold so well and is making up such a big percentage of sales so far. It'll be a bit easier to project after a couple days once we see how much it's adding for EA and Thu. Like if you add EA and Thu then it looks like a very frontloaded Fri ratio while compared to just Thu it looks very backloaded (but then the Thu start is less crazy).

Edited June 22, 2023 by Menor Reborn