The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/kevin-hart-man-from-toronto-netflix-sony-1235232985/

[CJohn]

59 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/kevin-hart-man-from-toronto-netflix-sony-1235232985/

SHIT FUCK SHIT OH FUCK

[EmpireCity]

The word was it is terrible and Sony wanted to dump it, and as you see, there it is.  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The word was it is terrible and Sony wanted to dump it, and as you see, there it is.  

It test screened virtually month ago or so and those only happen for online streaming films. And Woody replaced Statham early in production

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-0	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	72	12,368	987	150	7.98%
		Phoenix	7	63	10,619	945	132	8.90%
		Raleigh	8	58	6,571	989	160	15.05%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		21	193	29,558	2,921	442	9.88%

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-0 comps

 - Shang Chi - 97x (8.53m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.63x (6.76m)

 - NTTD - 1.3x (6.75m)

 - F9 - .956x (6.78m)

 - Dune - 1.32x (6.73m)

 

Uhhhhh, yeah, I'm gonna go with 6.75ish at this point.  That is some crazy convergence!

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
1-Hr	Fantastic Beasts 3	Jacksonville	6	72	12,368	1,188	201	9.61%
		Phoenix	7	63	10,619	1,062	117	10.00%
		Raleigh	8	58	6,571	1,195	206	18.19%
	Fantastic Beasts 3 Total		21	193	29,558	3,445	524	11.66%

 

Fantastic Beasts 3 T-1 hr comps

 - Shang Chi - .84x (7.395m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.445x (6m)

 - NTTD - 1.26x (6.56m)

 - F9 - .9x (6.38m)

 - Dune - 1.25x (6.39m)

 

It's always weird doing the last run in separate sections, especially when comps didn't all start at the same time.  For this one, I did the <6pm shows at 1pm, then started the rest of the shows at 5pm.  The comps dropped a little, so I'll put my final prediction at 6.6m for previews.  

 

For a fun experiment, I pulled my 15 closest comps to see where they would put previews.  When I average them, it comes out to 6.597m

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[Starphanluke]

3 hours ago, cooldude97 said:

 

Is there really a chance that Everything Everywhere goes up? (Or stays flat?)

[Eric is Quiet]

17 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	1719	22598	7.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 239

 

Comp

0.531x of Shang-Chi T-1 (4.67M)

0.746x of No Time to Die T-1 (4.7M)

0.977x of Dune T-1 (4.98M)

0.471x of Eternals T-1 (4.47M)

1.074x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-1 (4.83M)

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	2356	22598	10.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 637

 

Comp

0.496x of Shang-Chi (4.36M)

0.810x of No Time to Die (5.1M)

1.008x of Dune (5.14M)

0.447x of Eternals (4.24M)

1.062x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.78M)

 

Still seems a lot lower than everybody else, but we'll see if this muted final finish is a trend elsewhere.

[Shawn Robbins]

12 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Is there really a chance that Everything Everywhere goes up? (Or stays flat?)

If expansion hits the number of theaters projected, then yes. Unfortunately, A24 hasn't reported that to us yet... or weekday grosses, for that matter.

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 minutes ago, Shawn said:

If expansion hits the number of theaters projected, then yes. Unfortunately, A24 hasn't reported that to us yet... or weekday grosses, for that matter.

 

I'm seeing 1,929 in my US sample so it would appear the 2000+ is actually happening.

[XXR & Friends]

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

April 15, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore 

237 show times -- 6296 total seats sold -- 4593 PLF seats sold -- 1703 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 73.0% PLF -- 27.0% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4100

 

Comp: The Batman (0.3461x = $12.1M True Friday)

Comp: Morbius (1.3765x = $16M True Friday)

 

Full Friday Estimate: $19-21M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $44-47M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Father Stu 

68 show times -- 232 total seats sold -- 0 PLF seats sold -- 232 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 0% PLF -- 100% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~2700

 

Comp: Ambulance (0.2997x = $750K True Friday) 

 

Friday Estimate: $2-2.5M
3-Day Opening Weekend Estimate: $6-7M

 

Spoiler

Comments 

I expect Secrets of Dumbledore to be quite presales heavy. I'm modeling a bit closer to The Batman than I am to Morbius. I'm expecting roughly $6.5M in previews and 2.3-2.5x Full Friday for the opening weekend. Father Stu is a much harder prediction as my count would indicate an incredibly small Friday (something like $600K when adjusting for the PLF ratio). I don't think that's possible after a $1.55M opening Wednesday but I don't really know what the adjustment should be. It will clearly be extremely walk up friendly but I don't really have any good comps for this kind of movie or a Wednesday opener. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by KnucklesXXR

[Tinalera]

17 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

April 15, 2022 Openers - Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore 

237 show times -- 6296 total seats sold -- 4593 PLF seats sold -- 1703 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 73.0% PLF -- 27.0% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4100

 

Comp: The Batman (0.3461x = $12.1M True Friday)

Comp: Morbius (1.3765x = $16M True Friday)

 

Full Friday Estimate: $19-21M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $44-47M

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Father Stu 

68 show times -- 232 total seats sold -- 0 PLF seats sold -- 232 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 0% PLF -- 100% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~2700

 

Comp: Ambulance (0.2997x = $750K True Friday) 

 

Friday Estimate: $2-2.5M
3-Day Opening Weekend Estimate: $6-7M

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Comments 

I expect Secrets of Dumbledore to be quite presales heavy. I'm modeling a bit closer to The Batman than I am to Morbius. I'm expecting roughly $6.5M in previews and roughly 2.3-2.5x Full Friday for the opening weekend. Father Stu is a much harder prediction as my count would indicate an incredibly small Friday (something like $600K when adjusting for the PLF ratio). I don't think that's possible after a $1.55M opening Wednesday but I don't really know what the adjustment should be. It will clearly be extremely walk up friendly but I don't really have any good comps for this kind of movie or a Wednesday opener. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

I admit I never thought Id see a Harry Potter (universe) movie with that type of opening.

[Noctis]

Basically looking at a 6.5m result in previews.

[Noiret Jak]

With all the controversy surrounding this movie, a $40-50 million debut seems like a hit at this point.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:45am - 12:30pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	207	24155	27788	3633	13.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

601

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

SC [12:00-12:55]	75.59		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		5847	62.13%		6.65m
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	117.61		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		7712	47.11%		7.29m
Dune [12:00-12:20]	151.94		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	124.63%		7.75m
GB:A [12:00-12:45]	145.73		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	119.74%		6.56m
Morbius [12:00-12:40]	125.45		414	2896		0/183	21262/24158	11.99%		3477	104.49%		7.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

FB3 = 0.71084x FB2 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [Mid-Day] [5.8m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018 to 2022.

 

Regal:         623/7491  [8.32% sold]
Matinee:    443/4080  [10.86% | 12.19% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Solid start to the day, though 2pm start times might mean some of the actual honest-to-goodness walkups are already starting to be felt.  Still, still on target for mid 6s to high 6s, if Sacto isn't over-performing.  Do think the Dune comp is pretty worthless at this stage given the difference in PLF skew, but might as well leave it just since it's been here all along. No Time to Die and Morbius probably aren't much better given they were (presumably) more skewed to adults than FB3 will be, but the comps are what they are at this stage.

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm* - 4:25pm]

NOTE: All showtimes that started before 4pm were sampled at the start of that showtime.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	207	23332	27788	4456	16.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

823

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC [4:40-5:30]	76.21		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		5847	76.21%		6.71m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	119.24		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		7712	57.78%		7.39m
Dune [5:10-5:30]	152.86		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	152.86%		7.80m
GB:A [3:50-4:30]	146.87		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	146.87%		6.61m
Morbius [3:50-4:30]	128.16		581	3477		0/188	21171/24648	14.11%		3477	128.16%		7.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

FB3 = 0.74015x FB2 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [Final] [6.1m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018 to 2022.

 

Regal:         856/7491  [11.43% sold]
Matinee:    669/4080  [16.40% | 15.01% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Very nice walkups today, locally.  Well, relatively speaking.  Am using a (semi-*)new sampling system for early preview nights that I debuted with Sonic 2, and that seemed to work fairly well for that movie, so I'm sticking with it here.

* Semi new as it's something I've been sorta/kinda doing with most 3pm start preview nights, but I've refined it quite a bit since NWH started and I want to keep working out the kinks in time for Doctor Strange 2.

 

Still, as has been noted, Sacto did over-perform for FB2.  But even with a 10% penalty, that still is coming in over 6m, so maybe it just did have good walkups locally.  Ghostbusters: Afterlife is probs the best comp of all I have (FWIW, Sonic 2 points to 7.1m, but I know there's more kids tickets for that flick), so let's go with that and say 6.6m +/-.3m.

 

If Sacto was over-performing again and/or my new-ish system is putting too much of a thumb on the scale, then it's probably closer to 6.2m.  The FB2 comp is noteworthy, but there's been a ton of ticket inflation since late 2018, enough so that I think it's probably enough to counteract the observed pattern that Sacto is getting a bigger share of the DOM now than it was in 2019.  Still, if folks want a sign that Sacto over-performed again, there it is.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Porthos

[filmlover]

Yikes at the Man From Toronto pivot. August is looking really empty now.

 

Looks like Sony is betting their summer on a pair of movies with serious breakout potential (Where the Crawdads Sing, Bullet Train). FWIW looking at the summer slate it appears that it's gonna be a rather light four months overall in terms of product as a result of the COVID/banished to streaming era. WB also has only two movies (Elvis and Super Pets) coming out the whole summer while Paramount is more or less betting their entire season on Top Gun. Universal seems to be the only studio with a diverse slate, mixing safe IPs (Jurassic World, Minions) with potential breakouts (Nope, The Black Phone).

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Summer being mostly empty makes sense. I really can't blame studios for not wanting a repeat of 2019 when Endgame (and Disney in general) crushed everything. This year Marvel not only has another mega event in Doctor Strange 2 but also a fourth Thor movie, which will no doubt be huge after Ragnarok.

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Summer being mostly empty makes sense. I really can't blame studios for not wanting a repeat of 2019 when Endgame (and Disney in general) crushed everything. This year Marvel not only has another mega event in Doctor Strange 2 but also a fourth Thor movie, which will no doubt be huge after Ragnarok.

It also could be that COVID-related setbacks are still being felt. Some of these movies (Top Gun, Minions) are finally seeing the light of day after sitting on the shelf for about two years.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

12 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Summer being mostly empty makes sense. I really can't blame studios for not wanting a repeat of 2019 when Endgame (and Disney in general) crushed everything. This year Marvel not only has another mega event in Doctor Strange 2 but also a fourth Thor movie, which will no doubt be huge after Ragnarok.

Hobbs and Shaw, John Wick 3, Secret Lives of Pets 2, Pikachu, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Summer being mostly empty makes sense. I really can't blame studios for not wanting a repeat of 2019 when Endgame (and Disney in general) crushed everything. This year Marvel not only has another mega event in Doctor Strange 2 but also a fourth Thor movie, which will no doubt be huge after Ragnarok.

Strange is an event but in no way is it a mega event like Endgame.