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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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48 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

This data prob isnt of much use to yall without a histories and comps but gotta start somewhere.   I am seeing a heavy skew with the IMAX showings vs vs Regular screenings.  Dont really know the implications but I with the 120 theatrical run  I think they are expecting people to waiting around for IMAX screenings/repeat viewings.  Any ways 5 Tampa area IMAX screenings numbers as of 3am Thursday T -- 12 hours.

Collected by hand, I will learn  selenium this week to automate some collection.  And if there is intrest I will update 2pm and right before Mid showing.  Handicaps and companions account for variance i was using HTML to ID aby "Can Reserve" and "Not available" and those seats categorized differently.  

Theater 5 is actually Sarasota, included because of older skewing demo, median age 50 vs national average of 38 years old

 

      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 92 269 361 25.5%
Theater 1   Mid 271 93 364 74.5%
    Late 55 308 363 15.2%
      418 670 1088 38.4%
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 67 191 258 26.0%
Theater 2   Mid 119 140 259 45.9%
    Late 29 230 259 11.2%
      215 561 776 27.7%
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
Theater 3   Early 138 71 209 66.0%
    Mid 185 22 207 89.4%
      323 93 416 77.6%
             
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 140 213 353 39.7%
Theater 4   Mid 251 104 355 70.7%
    Late 25 316 341 7.3%
      416 633 1049 39.7%
             
             
      Sold Available Total % sold
    Early 115 143 258 44.6%
Theater 5   Mid 154 105 259 59.5%
    Late 94 165 259 36.3%
      363 413 776  
             
      5 Tamp Area IMAX 1 Screen no late screening
             
        Avaial Sold Tot Seats
      Early 887 552 1439
      Mid 464 980 1444
      Late 1019 203 1222
      Total  4105 1735 5840



Theater 2 from above's regular screening for TG2:M  as of 4:30am  T-10.5 hours. 3 "DOlby Cinemas" not tallied Like this at  them all though

 

0hQUWWz.png

 

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How many will be disappointed here if TG:M turns out frontloaded and walk-ins not that strong? Let's say doing only around $80-90m in 4 days and not like $120m+ as many expecting here.

 

*** Personally think even $80-90m opening will be good for a Cruise movie.

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7 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

How many will be disappointed here if TG:M turns out frontloaded and walk-ins not that strong? Let's say doing only around $80-90m in 4 days and not like $120m+ as many expecting here.

 

*** Personally think even $80-90m opening will be good for a Cruise movie.

Are you you're not mistaking 3-day with 4-day? Even then, a 80-90 mil 3-day would mean the movie is little less frontloaded than Spider-Man, Doctor Strange, and Batman, which definitely not happening.

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14 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

How many will be disappointed here if TG:M turns out frontloaded and walk-ins not that strong? Let's say doing only around $80-90m in 4 days and not like $120m+ as many expecting here.

 

*** Personally think even $80-90m opening will be good for a Cruise movie.

 

Particularly, my expectations have nothing to do with my prediction. In fact, 80-90M OW would already be a huge win for Paramount and Cruise.

But objectively, there are many signals that point to a breakout and a not frontloaded run. I have been following box office for more than 25 years now and I would be really surprised if TG:M has soft Saturday / Sunday / Monday numbers. In fact, if there's a number that possibly disappoints some here, it will be Friday's.

But we will see in a couple days

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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Have to consider seniors and veterans discount as well.


AMC - $1.15M (263 shows. Around 20 missing but I guess they will take care of discount)
Regal - $850K (182 shows, may be minus $50k for discounts)
Cinemark - $580K (162 shows, may be $50k for discounts)

Mega, Harkins, Draft - $136k (29 shows, may be $5k discounts)

Rest - $1.08M (320 shows, Say $75k discounts)

 

Total - $3.796M (956 shows. $180k+ discounts)

21 shows out of total 995 shows were non-reserved. Take $30k in those. That gives $3.63M in tracked shows.

 

May be we missed 100 shows. Take $200k for them and few walkins we missed in tracked ones. 

$3.8-3.9M

 

Yeah, actual ATP should be lower for TG2 than the other recent $90M+ comps on the board. Older skewing audience will beget not just senior/veterans discounts, but more discount shoppers with a higher % of Stubs, Unlimited, other vouchers/discounts. And as we move into weekend business, a higher share of tickets sold for matinees with lower late evening shows 

 

Some of that effect will be offset by PLF demand, with less capacity limitations of CBM comps, so a higher share of overall tickets, but not all of it 

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2 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:



Theater 2 from above's regular screening for TG2:M  as of 4:30am  T-10.5 hours. 3 "DOlby Cinemas" not tallied Like this at  them all though

 

0hQUWWz.png

 

For a film like TG2, the IMAX and other PLF's, where there are limited seats, are going to drive the lion's share of advance tickets, especially in a mid-tier market where full shows or even true sell-outs are rare, so there's less urgency to book tickets in advance.  Also, that particular location is probably not a prime one for advance sales generally or a great one for the presumed TG2 audience specifically; if you look at say Veterans or Park Place, PLF vs standard sales aren't quite so lopsided.

 

I know the Tampa market decently well, so feel free to DM me if you have any questions about tracking it

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Could Deadpool (2016) be a a good comparison for Top Guns overall weekend numbers? It opened on Presidents Day weekend and hence had a holiday Monday for itself and while it was ofc a CBM, it wasnt a frontloaded one:

 

Friday: $47,335,592

Sat: $42,508,025

Sun: $42,591,022

Mon: $19,759,214

 

3-Day: $132,434,639

4-Day: $152,193,853

 

 

 

Edited by Brainbug the Dinosaur
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16 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Could Deadpool (2016) be a a good comparison for Top Guns overall weekend numbers? It opened on Presidents Day weekend and hence had a holiday Monday for itself and while it was ofc a CBM, it wasnt a frontloaded one:

 

Friday: $47,335,592

Sat: $42,508,025

Sun: $42,591,022

Mon: $19,759,214

 

3-Day: $132,434,639

4-Day: $152,193,853

 

 

 

Your memorial day number is low. 4 day would be around 160m-165m. Memorial day doesn't drop that much from Sunday.

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46 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Could Deadpool (2016) be a a good comparison for Top Guns overall weekend numbers? It opened on Presidents Day weekend and hence had a holiday Monday for itself and while it was ofc a CBM, it wasnt a frontloaded one:

 

Friday: $47,335,592

Sat: $42,508,025

Sun: $42,591,022

Mon: $19,759,214

 

3-Day: $132,434,639

4-Day: $152,193,853

 

 

 


A large majority of Americans don’t get Presidents Day as a holiday. It’s more of a bank/government holiday. Most non-food/retail businesses are closed for Memorial Day so the holds will be much stronger. Probably a 20-30% drop vs a 50-55% Presidents Day drop.

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10 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:


A large majority of Americans don’t get Presidents Day as a holiday. It’s more of a bank/government holiday. Most non-food/retail businesses are closed for Memorial Day so the holds will be much stronger. Probably a 20-30% drop vs a 50-55% Presidents Day drop.

 

Oh, i didnt know that. Guess i should inform myself better before comparing (for me) foreign holidays 😅

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58 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Could Deadpool (2016) be a a good comparison for Top Guns overall weekend numbers? It opened on Presidents Day weekend and hence had a holiday Monday for itself and while it was ofc a CBM, it wasnt a frontloaded one:

 

Friday: $47,335,592

Sat: $42,508,025

Sun: $42,591,022

Mon: $19,759,214

 

3-Day: $132,434,639

4-Day: $152,193,853

 

 

 

No, that daily trajectory won't match with TG2. President's Day is one of the "weaker" holidays, and that particular year was an exception with Valentine's Day also falling on Sunday - normally grosses still drop ~25% for Sat to Sun.  Memorial Day and Labor Day weekend are the true BIG holidays, where Sun is roughly flat with Sat, and then Mon is a smaller drop than even a typical Sat to Sun

 

Come to think of it though - for very different reasons - TG2 might wind up with a 5-day pattern (including Thursday/EA) not all that far from what Black Panther did

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1 hour ago, M37 said:

For a film like TG2, the IMAX and other PLF's, where there are limited seats, are going to drive the lion's share of advance tickets, especially in a mid-tier market where full shows or even true sell-outs are rare, so there's less urgency to book tickets in advance.  Also, that particular location is probably not a prime one for advance sales generally or a great one for the presumed TG2 audience specifically; if you look at say Veterans or Park Place, PLF vs standard sales aren't quite so lopsided.

 

I know the Tampa market decently well, so feel free to DM me if you have any questions about tracking it

 


yea i am new and definitely not extrapolating on anything based on a first pass.  I do think the 120 and anecdotal evidence on older movie goers tells me there is much less a rush to get in this weekend and older demo is ok waiting for a less crowded IMAX experience.  Most my questions would be technically related to scrapping and automatizing it, try to short cut learning selenium which i need to anyways. Hah

Here is Vets:
T5vamMJ.png

 

edit: adding dolbys

gxwwS49.png

Edited by Borf the Borf
Replied in quote box, labeled graph
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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bob's Burgers T-1 Jax 6 16 18 142 1,602 8.86%
    Phx 6 22 56 200 2,868 6.97%
    Ral 7 18 30 142 1,407 10.09%
  Total   19 56 104 484 5,877 8.24%
JW3 Dominion T-15 Jax 7 107 16 651 15,994 4.07%
    Phx 6 94 7 627 16,370 3.83%
    Ral 8 67 28 669 7,529 8.89%
  Total   21 268 51 1,947 39,893 4.88%
JW3+JP T-15 Jax 5 5 6 131 811 16.15%
    Phx 6 6 5 296 638 46.39%
    Ral 7 7 4 117 688 17.01%
  Total   18 18 15 544 2,137 25.46%
Top Gun 2 T-1 Jax 7 118 233 1,865 19,700 9.47%
    Phx 7 106 542 2,168 16,577 13.08%
    Ral 8 85 197 1,619 9,688 16.71%
  Total   22 309 972 5,652 45,965 12.30%
Top Gun 2 (EA) T-0 Jax 2 2 17 171 245 69.80%
    Phx 2 2 37 187 434 43.09%
    Ral 1 1 7 52 118 44.07%
  Total   5 5 61 410 797 51.44%
Watcher T-8 Jax 3 4 0 1 203 0.49%
    Phx 3 4 0 2 483 0.41%
    Ral 2 3 0 1 207 0.48%
  Total   8 11 0 4 893 0.45%

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.21x (15.96m)

 - F9 - 2.59x (18.4m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 2.28x (13.68m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.03x (16.74m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.31x (20.31m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .769x (13.54m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - Missed

 

Still adding shows for Thursday

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .785x (16.96m)

 

Bob's Burgers T-1 comps

 - JJK0 - .322x (929k)

 - Ghostbusters - .345x (1.43m)

 - Free Guy - 1.2x (2.63m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.05x (2.83m) 

 

JW3 T-15 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.09x (14.36m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .698x (12.28m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.6x (25.55m)

 

ATP

JW3 Thu - 15.55

JW3 Double Feature - 16.31

Top Gun Wed - 12.44

Top Gun Thu - 14.40

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bob's Burgers T-0 Jax 6 16 43 185 1,602 11.55%
    Phx 6 22 60 260 2,868 9.07%
    Ral 7 18 30 172 1,407 12.22%
  Total   19 56 133 617 5,877 10.50%
JW3 Dominion T-14 Jax 7 107 13 664 15,994 4.15%
    Phx 6 94 7 634 16,370 3.87%
    Ral 8 67 18 687 7,529 9.12%
  Total   21 268 38 1,985 39,893 4.98%
JW3+JP T-14 Jax 5 5 7 138 811 17.02%
    Phx 6 6 14 310 638 48.59%
    Ral 7 7 3 120 688 17.44%
  Total   18 18 24 568 2,137 26.58%
Top Gun 2 T-0 Jax 7 129 425 2,290 20,520 11.16%
    Phx 7 108 366 2,534 16,665 15.21%
    Ral 8 89 308 1,927 9,920 19.43%
  Total   22 326 1,099 6,751 47,105 14.33%
Watcher T-7 Jax 2 2 0 1 77 1.30%
    Phx 3 4 0 2 483 0.41%
    Ral 2 3 1 2 207 0.97%
  Total   7 9 1 5 767 0.65%

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.166x (15.39m)

 - F9 - 2.21x (15.68m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 2.31x (13.87m)

 - Ghostbusters - 3.77x (15.63m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.24x (19.72m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .745x (13.11m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - 3x (15.61m)

 

I do love seeing numbers converge!  Pending today's sales I'd say 15.6m looks likely for true Thu.

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .763x (16.48m)

 

Batman comp coming in pretty low for Thu & EA comps.  Expecting closer to 4.6m in total EA (depending on Canada Wed shows)

 

Bob's Burgers T-0 comps

 - JJK0 - .353x (1.02m)

 - Ghostbusters - .344x (1.43m)

 - Free Guy - 1.08x (2.37m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .9x (2.44m) 

 

I still don't like any comps for this, but I think it's safe to bet this beats 1m pretty easily tonight.  I'll go with 1.5m at this point and see how today's sales go.

 

JW3 T-14 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.05x (13.83m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .682x (12m)

 - Eternals - 1.44x (13.7m)

 - F9 - 3.48x (24.73m)

 

It's safe to say that all eyes are on Top Gun this week.  Hopefully JW3 sales pick back up once we get past the holiday.

 

ATP

JW3 Thu - 15.55

JW3 Double Feature - 16.31

Top Gun Thu - 14.34

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8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Have to consider seniors and veterans discount as well.


AMC - $1.15M (263 shows. Around 20 missing but I guess they will take care of discount)
Regal - $850K (182 shows, may be minus $50k for discounts)
Cinemark - $580K (162 shows, may be $50k for discounts)

Mega, Harkins, Draft - $136k (29 shows, may be $5k discounts)

Rest - $1.08M (320 shows, Say $75k discounts)

 

Total - $3.796M (956 shows. $180k+ discounts)

21 shows out of total 995 shows were non-reserved. Take $30k in those. That gives $3.63M in tracked shows.

 

May be we missed 100 shows. Take $200k for them and few walkins we missed in tracked ones. 

$3.8-3.9M

 

Missing shows are also Imax/PLF. I am expecting some of them to be non chain Imax and they are big screens. I am expecting more. Anyway we will know tomorrow. There should be some split pre thursday and thursday previews. 

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7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.5152x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [20.86m adj]
JW3 = 3.6625x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [20.77m ad
j]
JW3 = 0.94668x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [19.6m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:        377/6145  [6.14% sold]
Matinee:    145/1535  [9.45% | 5.98% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Going to rope in NTTD and Dune comps starting tomorrow, I think.  Disparity in pre-sale length will make them ropy comps, but they should be better than the BW one and it's time for some fresh blood in these comps, IMO.

I would say add Bats and TGM at some point but TGM over indexed so much at sacremento that it does not make sense. But that JW2 comp is going down consistently. Final week surge included can it again exceed those comps. Wont be easy as JW2 did increase a lot in the final week. 

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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Missing shows are also Imax/PLF. I am expecting some of them to be non chain Imax and they are big screens. I am expecting more. Anyway we will know tomorrow. There should be some split pre thursday and thursday previews. 

I think we tracked most of those, but yeah 3.8 4. hardly any diff.

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On 5/18/2022 at 6:48 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Top Gun 2 Harkins T-10 Days

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 236 64,013 1,545 2.41% $17,308 $11.20
Cine 1 30 8,967 1,494 16.66% $22,855 $15.30
Cine Capri 6 2,673 361 13.51% $5,172 $14.33
IMAX 3 1,335 365 27.34% $5,840 $16.00
             
Total 275 76,988 3,765 4.89% $51,175 $13.59
             
Cine 1 (EA) 9 2,778 1,790 64.43% $28,450 $15.89
Cine Capri (EA) 2 891 390 43.77% $5,456 $13.99
IMAX (EA) 1 445 348 78.20% $5,568 $16.00
             
Total (EA) 12 4,114 2,528 61.45% $39,474 $15.61
             
Total 287 81,102 6,293 7.76% $90,649 $14.40

 

Top Gun 2 Harkins T-1 Day

 

Format Shows Capacity Sold % Sold Gross ATP
Normal 368 87,975 6,510 7.40% $70,004 $10.75
Cine 1 30 8,967 3,088 34.44% $46,219 $14.97
Cine Capri 6 2,673 622 23.27% $8,675 $13.95
IMAX 3 1,245 688 55.26% $11,008 $16.00
             
Total 407 100,860 10,908 10.81% $135,906 $12.46

 

Comps

1.94x Shang Chi - $17.4M

1.51x Eternals - $14.3M

0.29x DSitMoM - $10.6M

2.41x Sonic Final - $12M

 

None of the comps are meaningful. Just for fun. Based on projected final, these will mostly come around $15M ish. Though there may be slight over indexing in Harkins. All the above are True THU comps. 

 

Thanks @Menor Reborn for providing data.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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6 hours ago, The Dark Rock said:

How many will be disappointed here if TG:M turns out frontloaded and walk-ins not that strong? Let's say doing only around $80-90m in 4 days and not like $120m+ as many expecting here.

 

*** Personally think even $80-90m opening will be good for a Cruise movie.

yes 80-90m is still good but that is impossible once you see the preview numbers. It needs almost negligible walkups worse than any movie we have seen. That is not happening for sure. Low end with disappointing walkups would 125m over 4 days(plus previews over 3 days). 

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Bob's Burgers  Standard 30 51 266 3,087 8.62% $11.93 $3,172.99
T-1 Top Gun 2 PLF 38 248 2,553 9,131 27.96% $16.26 $41,521.21
    Standard 82 268 1,580 11,621 13.60% $12.42 $19,623.19
  Top Gun 2 Total   120 516 4,133 20,752 19.92% $14.79 $61,144.40
T-2 Top Gun 2 (Fri) PLF 51 448 3,141 11,973 26.23% $15.97 $50,174.59
    Standard 137 338 1,765 18,504 9.54% $11.89 $20,978.59
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 786 4,906 30,477 16.10% $14.50 $71,153.18

 

By matinee

 

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Top Gun 2 N 92 384 3,469 15,671 22.14% $15.40 $53,406.45
    Y 28 132 664 5,081 13.07% $11.65 $7,737.95
  Top Gun 2 Total   120 516 4,133 20,752 19.92% $14.79 $61,144.40
T-2 Top Gun 2 (Fri) N 89 509 3,567 14,620 24.40% $15.54 $55,421.63
    Y 99 277 1,339 15,857 8.44% $11.75 $15,731.55
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 786 4,906 30,477 16.10% $14.50

$71,153.18

 

*No JW3 today - might wait until weekend to pick it back up*

 

Bob's Burgers T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .175x (870k)

 - FB3 - .172x (1.03m)

 - Northman - 1.67x (2.26m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.95x (3.39m)

 

Top Gun T-1 comps

 - No Way Home - .217x (10.87m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - missed

 - FB3 - 2.67x (16.04m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .685x (12.07m)

 - Sonic (Thu) - 2.71x (13.51m)

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - 85.x (18.36m)

 - Sonic + EA - 2.35x (14.69m)

 

Top Gun (Fri) T-2 comps

 - NWH (Fri) - .292x (20.99m)

 - Batman (Fri) - .762x (26.67m)

 - DS 2 (Fri) - .45x (24.6m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Bob's Burgers  Standard 30 79 345 3,087 11.18% $11.94 $4,119.25
T-0 Top Gun 2 PLF 38 509 3,062 9,131 33.53% $16.14 $49,410.54
    Standard 92 472 2,052 12,415 16.53% $12.28 $25,189.34
  Top Gun 2 Total   130 981 5,114 21,546 23.74% $14.59 $74,599.88
T-1 Top Gun 2 (Fri) PLF 51 420 3,561 11,973 29.74% $15.83 $56,380.97
    Standard 137 460 2,225 18,504 12.02% $11.91 $26,498.12
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 880 5,786 30,477 18.98% $14.32 $82,879.09

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Top Gun 2 N 99 737 4,206 16,284 25.83% $15.22 $64,028.00
    Y 31 244 908 5,262 17.26% $11.64 $10,571.88
  Top Gun 2 Total   130 981 5,114 21,546 23.74% $14.59 $74,599.88
T-1 Top Gun 2 (Fri) N 89 522 4,089 14,620 27.97% $15.38 $62,888.12
    Y 99 358 1,697 15,857 10.70% $11.78 $19,990.97
  Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total   188 880 5,786 30,477 18.98% $14.32 $82,879.09

 

*No JW3 today - might wait until weekend to pick it back up*

 

Bob's Burgers T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .171x (850k)

 - FB3 - .171x (1.03m)

 - Northman - 1.49x (2m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.28x (2.63m)

 

Just like regionals-no good comps here.  I'll just take the average of these and say 1.6m previews.

 

Top Gun T-0 comps

 - No Way Home - .257x (12.87m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .322x (11.61m)

 - FB3 - 2.54x (15.23m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .684x (12.03m)

 - Sonic (Thu) - 2.53x (12.6m)

 - Morbius - 2.6x (14.8m)

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .87x (17.68m)

 - Sonic + EA - 2.28x (14.27m)

 

Santikos has shown to have much higher presales for CBM than others.  I wouldn't be surprised if it came closer to the FB3 comp.  Let's say 15m Thu previews.

 

Top Gun (Fri) T-1 comps

 - NWH (Fri) - .318x (22.92m)

 - Batman (Fri) - .748x (26.19m)

 - DS 2 (Fri) - .434x (23.76m)

 

Again, this isn't gonna play like a CBM, especially in this chain.  Just adding these since I have them.

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