The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Is this true Thursday or includes Tuesday screenings?

All previews.

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

All previews.

Thanks. So around 15-17M previews including about 5M for Tuesday screenings.

[Ryan Reynolds]

if 15m+ is the previews would weekend be close to Fast 7 , another action franchise with similar previews, that made 147m  Easter weekend

Edited May 27, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds

[Liiviig 1998]

So 10-12m true Thursday then.

Sticking with my 125m 4 day with some strong legs to 400M+ Dom.

Edited May 27, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[Alex SciChannel]

28 minutes ago, ZackM said:

All previews.

Wait I thought it was Thursday only. I'm so confused.

 

Still hoping for a 13M-15M true Thursday.

Edited May 27, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Borf the Borf]

I think in retrospect the most over looked part of this will be how adverse older demo still is to large, indoor compact gatherings in current/post/whatever covid period we are.  People reporting the liberal areas showing lower numbers thinking its about contents of the movie where as it might be more inline with political orientation and attitude to covid.  This is on top of a group that always doesnt liike big crowds when compared to others.   The trend could be around for a long time. 

Then you have the huge skew towards IMAX/DOLBY showings.   This comes in with another issue and the older demo and that is bedtime.  Each theater will either have 10pm+ showing to maximize screen time  it would account for 25% of available seats for that screen.  I think this  will continue to hurt it over weekend and widen the gap from the superhero comps that could keep higher numbers into the late night screenings.   


EDIT: Too clarify about "risk adverse" and covid , I am referring to a potential customer who would go to a theater at 25% capacity without a 2nd thought but views a packed house as much more risky.  

Edited May 27, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[Borf the Borf]

10 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

I think in retrospect the most over looked part of this will be how adverse older demo still is to large, indoor compact gatherings in current/post/whatever covid period we are.  People reporting the liberal areas showing lower numbers thinking its about contents of the movie where as it might be more inline with political orientation and attitude to covid.  This is on top of a group that always doesnt liike big crowds when compared to others.   The trend could be around for a long time. 

Then you have the huge skew towards IMAX/DOLBY showings.   This comes in with another issue and the older demo and that is bedtime.  Each theater will either have 10pm+ showing to maximize screen time  it would account for 25% of available seats for that screen.  I think this  will continue to hurt it over weekend and widen the gap from the superhero comps that could keep higher numbers into the late night screenings.   


EDIT: Too clarify about "risk adverse" and covid , I am referring to a potential customer who would go to a theater at 25%

 

capacity without a 2nd thought but views a packed house as much more risky.  

Like philly had really low numbers?  Well these are the local headlines as of this week. 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

[charlie Jatinder]

$13M THU I think. $17.5M Previews.

Something like

17.5
28-30
31-36
29-35 // 105-118
21-28 // 126-146

[Porthos]

On 5/25/2022 at 11:57 PM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22947	25372	2425	9.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	58
Total Seats Sold Today	99

 

T-15 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-15

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

F9

270.04

71

898

0/91

13252/14150

6.35%

4407

52.44%

20.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	97.06		108	2381		0/117	16753/19134	12.44%		9196	26.37%		13.42m
JWD (adj)	---		83	2311		0/169	20323/22634	10.21%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.5152x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [20.86m adj]
JW3 = 3.6625x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [20.77m adj]
JW3 = 0.94668x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 15 [19.6m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:        377/6145  [6.14% sold]
Matinee:    145/1535  [9.45% | 5.98% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Going to rope in NTTD and Dune comps starting tomorrow, I think.  Disparity in pre-sale length will make them ropy comps, but they should be better than the BW one and it's time for some fresh blood in these comps, IMO.

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22777	25372	2595	10.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

170

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-14

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

F9

267.80

71

969

0/91

13181/14150

6.85%

4407

56.18%

19.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	99.56		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		9196	28.22%		13.76m
JWD (adj)	---		165	2476		0/169	20158/22634	10.94%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.53835x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 14 [21.18m adj]
JW3 = 3.58581x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 14 [20.33m adj]
JW3 = 0.97145x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 14 [20.11m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       389/6145  [6.33% sold]
Matinee:    149/1535  [9.71% | 5.74% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The Halo Effect is real, y'all!!!

 

--

 

Actually spent some time scanning my sheets to see if there were any obvious errors and I didn't see anything.  Gots things to do for the next 30+ minutes but when I have the time I might re-run the sample to make sure this is correct.  But it appears this was just a strong day up and down the region so probably not, as I didn't see any immediate Red Flags when I compared today's totals to yesterday's.

Edited May 28, 2022 by Porthos

[Borf the Borf]

Tampa area theater , all showings number taken at 5am.  I ma new no comps or anything, I will post final results. 

[M37]

Looking back over all the numbers from last night, thinking total previews come in around $16M

 

In part because ATP, despite the PLF share in sales, is going to be a bit soft given the age (discount) and time zone skew 

[Borf the Borf]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Looking back over all the numbers from last night, thinking total previews come in around $16M

 

In part because ATP, despite the PLF share in sales, is going to be a bit soft given the age (discount) and time zone skew 

Do appple bee passes just get accounted for at full price?

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Do appple bee passes just get accounted for at full price?

Based on that ad, suspect they are giving out vouchers of some kind, which would show as full admission price (up to the $15), rather than a discounted/free admit at the theater 

[Borf the Borf]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Based on that ad, suspect they are giving out vouchers of some kind, which would show as full admission price (up to the $15), rather than a discounted/free admit at the theater 

Intresting in FL all the retirees on fixed income live for stufff like that.  Funny it prop raises there ticket average from the discounted tickets they would normally but, not enought to matter but still.   

[Alex SciChannel]

14M True Thursday out if the question at this point? Or can I still hold my breath?

[charlie Jatinder]

13.5 is quite possible. 

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

13.5 is quite possible. 

Imagine if it makes the exact same Thursday as Pirates: at Worlds End

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Looking back over all the numbers from last night, thinking total previews come in around $16M

 

In part because ATP, despite the PLF share in sales, is going to be a bit soft given the age (discount) and time zone skew 

I think there may be a countervailing factor here with the private corporate screenings, but good point. Personally expecting a bit higher though.

[Grebacio]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-elvis-and-the-black-phone/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
6/3/2022	Crimes of the Future					NEON
6/10/2022	Jurassic World Dominion	$160,000,000 – $210,000,000	-8%	$443,000,000 – $590,000,000	-8%	Universal Pictures
6/17/2022	Lightyear	$90,000,000 – $120,000,000		$300,000,000 – $415,000,000		Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022	The Black Phone	$17,000,000 – $22,000,000		$45,000,000 – $70,000,000		Universal Pictures
6/24/2022	Elvis	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000		$110,000,000 – $170,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

[Maggie]

41 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Imagine if it makes the exact same Thursday as Pirates: at Worlds End

Did Pirates have early access screenings? I think not, right? What a beast that movie was OW

Edited May 27, 2022 by Maggie